–Juijitsu economics or how to win by making the other guy think he’s winning

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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I think Professor Randy Wray (UMKC), one of the leading proponents of Modern Monetary Theory, has given up butting heads with debt-hawks, and has adopted a new, and perhaps more realistic approach. Recently, he gave a radio interview in which he said that the states (and counties and cities), desperately needed financial help, and that this help only could come from the federal government.

As I’ve noted previously on this blog, ( Why the states are in financial trouble ) it is mathematically impossible for any monetarily non-sovereign entity to last long-term without an outside source of income. You and I are monetarily non-sovereign, and to survive long term we need a salary and/or investment income sufficient to prevent us eventually from going bankrupt. We cannot survive indefinitely on the money we have saved, no matter how much that may be.

The states (and counties and cities) also are monetarily non-sovereign, and they too need an outside source of income. Taxes, coming from money that already exists in the state, are not sufficient to support a state long term, because inflation makes that money decline in value each year. For a state, outside income might come from exports or tourism. Examples are Alaska’s exports of oil and Nevada’s tourism.

Most states find even these outside sources of income insufficient to pay for education and infrastructure, two huge expenses the federal government could and should support. So most states have entered into a downward spiral of borrowing, which causes their credit ratings to drop and interest payments to increase, then borrowing more, which causes further ratings drops, and on and on and on.

Professor Wray suggested, in his interview, that the government should provide economic aid to the states and this would re-energize the economy, which eventually would reduce the federal deficit. Now Randy knows the following three things:

1. Re-energizing the economy does not reduce the federal deficit. GDP growth does not reduce the deficit. Yes, GDP growth can increase taxes, but taxes are not necessary for spending. More importantly, deficit growth is necessary for GDP growth (See: Summary)
.and
2. There is no economic or financial reason to reduce the federal deficit, though reducing state deficits is necessary. The federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. The states are not.
3. There is no negative economic results from federal deficits.

So if increasing deficits are what drives a growing economy, why did Randy suggest stimuli as a way to decrease deficits? My belief: By positioning a stimulus plan as a way to reduce the federal deficits, he may be trying to provide political cover for our leaders to do what must be done, i.e. financially support the states. If so, that is a clever approach, which I have termed “jiujitsu economics.”

I’ve written Randy to see whether that, in fact, is what he had in mind. I’ll let you know what he says.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–When will the economy recover?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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At long last, when will the economy recover? Wait a minute. Look at this graph:

graph 1

Considering that the data only goes through September, 2010, one easily can infer that the economy already has recovered. Yes, the stock market has not recovered, but that could be good news. It could mean it still has plenty of recovery left in it.

And yes, unemployment still is a big problem:

But that could be a good thing, too (although not for those who are unemployed.) A high level of unemployment mitigates against inflation. The government could continue to use its infinite spending ability and not be concerned it was causing inflation. For instance, FICA could be eliminated, as it should be, rather than the tentative, temporary step now taken. And the standard deduction could be raised, also as it should be. And Social Security benefits could be increased, and Medicare could be expanded, again as they should be.

And interest rates have stayed way down:

graph 3

And that’s another good thing, because it means the Fed has plenty of room (not that “room” really is needed) to raise rates if inflation should rear its ugly head.

There are plenty of leading indicators one might explore, but these graphs give me cause for optimism, if only the federal government will seize the moment.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–What will help the poor? Taxes vs. Spending

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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Now that the new tax bill has passed, three related issues will remain in the news:

1. Will tax reductions cause inflation? (In the unlikely event they do, the Fed will prevent/cure inflation by raising interest rates)

2. Will tax reductions bankrupt Social Security and Medicare? (No. Because the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign, federal spending is not constrained by taxes. If FICA were reduced to $0, this would not affect by even one penny the federal government’s ability to support Social Security and Medicare. Tax reductions cannot bankrupt the U.S. or any of its agencies.)

3. Should taxes on the rich be increased as soon as the current law expires? That is the question discussed in this post.

Some people favor higher taxes on the rich, because they believe this somehow will help the poor. The concept is that by taxing the rich, we close the “gap” between rich and poor, and this closed gap benefits the poor.

I discuss this “gap” further at Closing the Gap and at A Partial Solution for the Gap.

I strongly empathize with the desire to aid the poor. But bringing down the rich is not the way. Whether Bill Gates has $50 billion or is brought down to “only” $10 billion, does not affect the poor. We have had 90% top tax rates, and that did nothing to help the poor. In fact, increasing taxes on anyone, rich or poor, removes money from the economy, which slows the economy. Slowed economic growth always hurts the poor more than the rich, as witness the most recent recession. Who was hurt most, the rich or the poor?

As I mentioned, the federal government does not spend tax money. Unlike state and local governments, which are not Monetarily Sovereign, the federal government spends money it creates ad hoc. If the wealthy were taxed at the 99.99% rate, this would not increase by even one cent, the federal government’s ability to spend, i.e. to help the poor.

The poor benefit most when the economy is growing fastest, because that increases the availability of jobs and money. So to help the poor, we must stimulate the economy. That is, if we want to help the poor, we very simply should help the poor. The Federal government could:

–Increase Social Security benefits.
–Initiate free universal health care insurance.
–Increase unemployment benefits.
–Pay a salary to all students. ( SALARY)
–Eliminate FICA. (FICA)
–Increase the standard deduction on income taxes.
–Allow home rent to be tax deductible.
–Increase food stamps.
–Pay states and cities to reduce sales taxes

There are many ways to help the poor. We should focus on that, not on punishing the rich, which may provide some emotional satisfactions, but does not provide financial benefits to anyone. Let me see some of your ideas for helping the poor.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–News: China must control inflation, exports and GDP growth. But how?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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On December 17, 2010 Columnist Michael Schuman published an online article saying:

Chinese inflation hit 5.1% in November, the fastest clip since the pre-crisis boom months of 2008. Though much of the increase is in food (up 11.7% from a year earlier), the inflationary pressures are spreading to more aspects of the economy.

By hiking interest rates, the central bank would be increasing the interest burden on borrowers. That, in turn, could intensify a bad loan problem at China’s banks that many economists believe is an inevitable result of the lending boom.

So the Chinese have instead turned to an old favorite, price controls on certain staple foods.

Inflation is the loss in value of money compared to the value of goods and services. The cure for inflation is to increase the value of money and/or to decrease the value of goods and services.

The later is difficult for any government to accomplish, other than with price controls. Sadly, price controls have serious defects. They lead to reduced supply, while allowing demand to increase, which invariably causes pent up demand and black markets.

A second approach is for the government to buy, store then mete out supplies of oil, when prices rise. Because oil is the prime mover of inflation, this can be an effective anti-inflation plan, if the government has the discipline to do it. The plan falls apart when the government becomes reluctant to part with any of its suddenly-more-precious oil.

In all, increasing the value of money seem to be the best prevention/cure for inflation. That can be accomplished by decreasing the supply of money or by increasing the demand for money. Reduced government spending or increased taxation can reduce the supply. However, reducing the money supply not only leads to recessions and depressions, but involves very slow, uncertain and cumbersome processes.

In addition to the difficulty of knowing how much to increase taxes or to reduce spending, the even more difficult question is which taxes to increase and/or which spending to decrease. By the time politicians finish debating and voting on these highly political questions, the situation either may have passed or more likely, worsened appreciably.

Preventing/curing inflation requires agility and incremental response, for which interest rate modification is ideal. Raising interest rates can be done instantly and in tiny increments. It increases the demand for money, which increases the value of money – perfectly anti-inflationary.

China’s reluctance to strengthen its currency probably is tied to its false belief it must continue to build its export business, which relies in part on the weakness of the yuan. The function of exports is to bring money into an economy, but China, being Monetarily Sovereign does not need additional money coming in from outside its borders. It has the unlimited ability to create money.

China also may subscribe to the popular belief that low interest rates stimulate its economy. American history shows this belief to be false. See: Low interest rates do not help the economy. China also may believe high rates increase business costs, and so actually could foster inflation. However, in America at least, high rates have not corresponded with inflation. (See Item 12,) probably because interest is a minuscule part of most companies’ costs..

The Chinese government has the ability to be its nation’s own best customer. It does not need to rely on exports. This is a fact for all Monetarily Sovereign nations. China has the means to prevent/cure its inflation by raising interest rates. It needs only to understand its own powers.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”