The fake debt crisis of China

Much has been written about China’s supposedly dangerous debt/GDP ratio, which often is said to exceed 300% (or as “little” as 100%, depending on the source.)

The suggestion is that China is on the brink of bankruptcy, as if a Monetarily Sovereign nation were comparable to a family overwhelmed by credit card debt.

But that comparison is misleading. China’s “debt” consists of a mixture of central-government obligations, local-government financing, state-owned enterprises, banks, developers, and private borrowing.

More importantly, much of it is denominated in China’s own sovereign currency, the yuan. China cannot involuntarily run short of yuan any more than the United States can involuntarily run short of dollars.

The real concern isn’t debt in the usual sense. For a Monetarily Sovereign nation, debt is mostly just an accounting record of past spending compared to taxes collected. Big debt numbers by themselves don’t reveal much about the actual health of the economy.

In fact, debt is a measure of the growth yuan (and dollars) the central government is pumping into the economy. 

This contrasts with monetarily non-sovereign nations like France, Germany, Italy, Greece et al, which, like a family, can be overwhelmed by debt.

If China were to announce tomorrow that it planned to spend trillions of yuan repairing the Great Wall, building lunar bases, or developing massive new energy systems, the debt-to-GDP ratio could climb even higher. Still, those with economic insight would likely see these projects not as signs of crisis, but as affordable demonstrations of ambition and productive mobilization.

The real issue isn’t debt, but how spending is allocated. What counts is not the number of yuan China spends, but how it puts its labor, steel, concrete, energy, engineering skills, networks, and productive capacity to use. These resources are limited; the yuan isn’t.

If resources are directed toward useful infrastructure, advanced technology, transportation, energy production, education, or scientific development, the resulting spending can strengthen future productive capacity. But if resources are persistently directed toward projects that generate little long-term usefulness, the issue becomes one of misallocation rather than insolvency.

China’s famous “ghost cities” illustrate this distinction. Western commentary often portrays them as proof of a debt crisis. Yet many of those projects employed millions of workers, generated income, stimulated factories, and increased economic activity.

From a Monetary Sovereignty standpoint, idle labor is a waste, so putting people to work on less-than-perfect projects can still be better than leaving them unemployed. The real issue is whether those projects will add enough to future human well-being and productivity to justify spending limited resources.

If resources that could have built needed energy systems, transportation networks, or housing are instead diverted to speculative or low-value projects, then China may face a spending or allocation problem. The key phrase is “instead diverted.” 

But that still is not a debt crisis. It would be an asset-allocation problem.

In other words, debt does not consume resources. Spending consumes resources. A Treasury security or government bond sitting on a balance sheet does not eat food, burn fuel, or pour concrete. Real activity does.

The danger arises not because the accounting numbers become large, but because real resources may be directed inefficiently. Even then, the problem is not that China “runs out of money.” The problem would be that China may not be using its labor and productive capacity as effectively as possible.

Ultimately, the obsession with debt/GDP ratios often confuses financial abstractions with physical reality.

Economies are built not from accounting entries but from energy, food, transportation, factories, technology, labor, and organization.

China’s challenge, therefore, is not primarily financial solvency. It is whether its immense productive capacity is being directed toward projects that improve long-term human and economic development rather than merely inflating statistics or speculative construction.

That is a spending allocation problem, not a debt or even a Debt/GDP problem.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell

Search #monetarysovereignty

Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell;

MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell;

https://www.academia.edu/

……………………………………………………………………..

A Government’s Sole Purpose is to Improve and Protect The People’s Lives.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Science is held hostage by semantics

Economics

Scientists often misuse words with multiple meanings. For instance, economists use terms like “debt,” “deficit,” “borrow,” “trust fund,” “taxes,” and “insolvent.” These words each can mean very different things when applied to a Monetarily Sovereign government (the U.S., Canada, Australia, the UK, etc.) versus a monetarily non-sovereign entity (you, New York, Walmart, France) etc.)

In the case of the U.S. government:

  1. Federal “debt” represents savings and is not a burden on the government.
  2. Federal taxes do not fund federal spending; the government does not spend “taxpayers’ dollars.”
  3. Federal “deficits” are necessary for economic growth and also are not a burden; they add growth dollars to the economy.
  4. The federal government does not “borrow” dollars but has the unlimited ability to create them through legislation and simple computer entries.
  5. A federal “trust fund” is not like a private trust fund, but instead it’s just a line item on a balance sheet, entirely controlled by the federal government.
  6. Neither the federal government, nor its agencies can become “insolvent” with regard to dollars. For example, Medicare cannot run short of dollars unless the government wills it.

Economists often treat inflation as a “too much money” or an “excessive demand” problem, while ignoring the historical reality that shortages in energy, food, housing, and production capacity are the main culprits.

The Federal Reserve’s approach to tackling inflation—raising interest rates—aims to curb demand by making it harder for everyday people to spend. While higher rates can may cut borrowing, they slow economic growth, drive up costs, shift income toward the wealthy, and do nothing to address shortages in oil, food, housing, or infrastructure.

No major inflationary episodes, including the 1970s stagflation, Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela, were caused by “money printing,” but rather by collapses in productive capacity, food production, energy supply, or other supply chains.

Yet popular wisdom holds that “too much money” is the cause of inflation, and the solution is to reduce the money supply. But because inflation is fundamentally about shortages, suppressing demand rather than expanding production amounts to applying leeches to cure anemia.

More specifically, inflation has been caused by shortages in foundational resources, especially energy. Oil prices and inflation move strikingly together because energy permeates transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, and nearly every economic activity.

Economics is a field in which failed predictions often survive because if a policy fails, economists claim it was not applied strongly enough or that outside variables interfered.

Example: to cure inflation, Ben Bernanke raised interest rates. When that worsened inflation, he raised them again. And again. And again. More leeches; worse anemia. Finally, inflation was cured when more oil began to flow.

Today, the Fed continues the same interest rate tradition.

Then consider tariffs. Under Donald Trump they are an example of policies that supporters defend regardless of contradictory outcomes. The deeper critique is that societies increasingly manipulate financial systems while neglecting real productive capacity.

Just as terms like “federal debt” and “trust fund” confuse, so do “dark energy,” “dark matter,” “wave-particle duality,” and “entanglement” mislead and conceal our ignorance. “Dark energy” is a phrase meaning, essentially, “the unknown thing causing cosmic acceleration.” 

Once science names something, people often assume it has been explained, when in fact the label may merely restate the mystery in an inappropriate way.

The most difficult question in cosmology is not “what?” or “how?” but “why?” Science leans at describing mechanisms and patterns, but every explanation eventually terminates in another “why?”

One thought: perhaps the universe exists the way it does because it could not exist any other way. Entanglement, quantum uncertainty, physical laws, and even infinity itself may not be arbitrary oddities but necessary conditions for a stable, persistent universe.

Reality itself might be a mechanism for exploring “possibility space,” with unstable configurations disappearing while stable patterns persist. Evolution would then not merely occur on Earth or within the universe but characterize the universe itself. Laws, structures, and even physical constants might emerge through a kind of cosmic selection process.

Success = failure × infinity + 1. Nature does not seek perfect solutions, only solutions that survive. Thus, perhaps the universe itself is a giant computational or exploratory process repeatedly asking, “What if?”

Life, intelligence, and consciousness can be seen as the universe’s way to look at itself. Humans ask “why?” because the universe developed beings capable asking that question. This “theo-cosmology,” imagines that if God exists, they didn’t create a finished universe but one that’s constantly searching. In this view, the universe isn’t a solved equation, but an ongoing Darwinian journey of exploration and possibility.

“What/how?” leads to “What if?” which leads to “Why?” which leads to “Then what?” which generates a new “What/how?” This endless cycle contrasts with oblivion, the only true stopping point where no questions, no history, and no persistence remain.

Existence therefore can be framed not as a static noun but as an ongoing process—a continual conversion of possibility into history.

We learn by analogy. metaphor and simile. (A is a B and like a C.”) In each case, a less familiar thing is compared to a more familiar thing to clarify the less familiar thing. The two things are not identical, just comparable. We cannot learn anything if there is nothing familiar to which it is compared.

Because we have no word for exactly what an electron is, we give it the word, “particle,” though current belief is that the electron is nothing at all like a tiny piece of matter.

An atom often is pictured as a miniature solar system, with electrons circling protons. It is not like that. “So,” you might ask, “what does an atom “look like?” That very question begs for an analogy.

So does the question, “What is magnetism made of?” 

We cannot understand how quantum entanglement works because it is not “like” anything we have experienced. And we describe the “wave-particle duality” as something that often “acts like” a wave acts and also “acts like” a particle acts. But “acts like” is not the same as “is.”

Consider pain, “Sharp” pain is not sharp in the way we understand something like a razor being sharp. In fact, being cut by a razor causes a pain that is different from a “sharp” pain. We don’t have a word for that pain.

In a similar vein, we are given the false analogy of “federal debt as being like personal debt,” though the two have virtually nothing in common. 

Just as good analogy supports learning, a false analogy supports ignorance. Believing that federal debt is similar to personal debt, and electrons are similar to particles– that is like choosing the wrong fork in a road. It not only will not take you to your goal, but actually diverts you, taking you farther from your destination.

If I say, “she is the apple of his eye,” I expect you to understand that the word “apple” has different meanings. But President Obama once said, “If a family must live within its means, the federal government should live within its means.” He wanted you to believe falsely, that “means” for the federal government has the same restraints as does “means” for a family.

When you hear worries about the size of the federal “debt,” it can distract you from the fact that a growing federal debt (which is net dollars created by the federal government) boosts the economy, while reducing federal debt leads to recessions and depressions.

History shows that almost every recession has followed the lack of federal deficit growth, and every depression has followed reductions in federal debt.

When faced with the analogy, “A is like B,” we must ask ourselves, “Does that analogy apply in this particular case?” Or is it just a polysemic similarity — one word with different meanings.

The phrase “I am my history” captures a powerful idea: identity is the sum of accumulated experiences. This notion applies not only to individuals but also to civilizations, species, and even the universe. The universe isn’t apart from its past—it is its past.

You are different from me. From our beginnings, we have different histories. You also are different from a tree, the ocean, the Earth, the Sun . . . All have different histories and are defined by those differences — and for many of our differences, we have no words, no analogies, nothing that tells us what a thought looks like or what love tastes like.

The innocent child, who repeatedly asks “why?” eventually destabilizes every explanatory system because every answer generates another deeper question. Science, philosophy, economics, and religion all eventually reach a point where they can only say, “That’s just the way things are.”

The refusal to stop questioning is the essence of intelligence itself. We each have scant control over our histories, along with scant control over the illusion of control.

Begin with understanding that federal debt is completely unlike personal debt. And those who tell you otherwise are simply wrong.

Don’t be held hostage by semantics.

 

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell

Search #monetarysovereignty

Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell;

MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell;

https://www.academia.edu/

……………………………………………………………………..

A Government’s Sole Purpose is to Improve and Protect The People’s Lives.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

We created it.

We created it. Now how do we get people to forget our legacy?

(Whose dumb idea was this “Unitary Executive” thing?)

We have inflation, so will the Fed cut or raise interest rates?

The Fed traditionally raises interest rates to counter inflation. But there are opposing forces at work.

Raising rates makes things more expensive, which by definition is inflationary. But raising rates may inhibit borrowing, which can reduce demand, which can ease scarcity. That’s the hypothesis. What is the stronger effect?

That is one of the central unresolved practical questions in macroeconomics: Higher interest rates simultaneously create inflationary forces and disinflationary forces. The issue is which dominates, under what conditions, and with what time lag.

The inflationary side of rate hikes: Raising rates directly raises costs throughout the economy.

Examples:

  1. Mortgages become more expensive.
  2. Business loans cost more,
  3. Credit-card interest rises,
  4. Auto loans rise,
  5. Landlords face higher financing costs,
  6. Companies pass borrowing costs into prices when possible.
  7. Government interest payments rise.

Interest payments turn into income for households, banks, and bondholders, all of which boost demand—or in “Fed speak,” heat up the economy.

In the 1970s, the U.S. saw sluggish growth, rising unemployment, and high inflation all at once. This surprised economists, as postwar models assumed inflation and unemployment moved in opposite directions.

Instead, both rose together, driven by factors like oil shocks, energy shortages, supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and wage-price spirals.

The Fed responded with very high interest rates under Paul Volcker, but this caused severe recession and unemployment that negatively affected the 95% lower wealth group while growing the fortunes of the 5% greater wealth people.

By contrast, from roughly the 1990s through pre-COVID years, the U.S. experienced a long economic expansion with relatively low unemployment, combined with low and stable inflation, technological productivity gains, globalization,
cheap imports, and strong supply growth.

That period contradicted the simplistic idea that low unemployment produces inflation. In fact, central banks repeatedly underestimated how low unemployment could go without inflation accelerating.

Higher rates therefore increase certain prices mechanically. Numbers 1-6 (ab0ve) reduce GDP, i.e., are recessive. Number 7 increases GDP, therefore, is expansive. Note however that recession is not the opposite of inflation, nor is expansion equal to inflation. We can have inflation together with recession (“stagflation”)

In short, the Fed views inflation as a “too-much-money” problem and so, tries to cure inflation by recessing the economy. The strange idea is that if you make the vast majority of the people poorer, they will buy less food and oil (the main drivers of inflation), while high interest rates make wealthy bond owners richer.

Which effect is stronger? Historically, the answer appears to be that interest rate increases are mostly inflationary, especially for housing, financing costs, and business costs, and do nothing to increase the supply of energy and food.

Inflation is driven mainly by oil shocks, supply-chain breakdowns, war, food shortages, housing shortages,
pandemic disruptions. In those cases, raising rates does not produce more oil, more food, more chips, more housing, or more shipping capacity. 

It may even worsen supply by discouraging investment.

For example, post-pandemic inflation involved major supply disruptions, energy shocks, and logistics problems. Rate hikes could not solve those. That is why Biden successfully fought inflation by passing legislation that would increase the supply of energy (especially renewable), as well as supply chain, infrastructure, and other shortages.

Fossil-fuel shocks repeatedly drive inflation, so reducing dependence on volatile oil and gas markets could reduce future inflation vulnerability.

(Trump has increased, decreased, increased, decreased, and increased tariffs as his whimsical approach to economic planning and inflation.)

Look at this graph:

 

Oil price changes repeatedly parallel inflation changes. 

1. If energy shortages repeatedly precede major inflation episodes, why do we raise interest rates to reduce demand, rather than trying to expand the energy supply?

2. Why has Trump reduced support for renewables like solar, wind, geothermal, and water, and instead focused on coal and oil that pollute our air and water, and will become increasingly expensive as sources dwindle?

3. What are the economic effects of reducing demand (“cooling” the economy)?

Answers:

  1. If your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail to be hammered. The Fed’s primary tool is interest rates, so every supply problem asks for a demand solution.
  2. trump’s main considerations are his family’s fortune, votes, and self-aggrandizement. He receives more money from oil interests than from solar interests.
  3. Reducing the demand for oil, housing, food (food??), cars, infrastructure, R&D, etc., by definition, is recessive, both short term and long term. Economic growth requires increased spending. (GDP=Total Spending + Net Exports).

 

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell

Search #monetarysovereignty

Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell;

MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell;

https://www.academia.edu/

……………………………………………………………………..

A Government’s Sole Purpose is to Improve and Protect The People’s Lives.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY