Why the economy grows when the stimulus shrinks

Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Mitchell’s laws:
●The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes.
●Austerity is the government’s method for widening the gap between rich and poor,
which ultimately leads to civil disorder.
●Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.
●To survive long term, a monetarily non-sovereign government must have a positive balance of payments.
●Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
●The penalty for ignorance is slavery.
●Everything in economics devolves to motive.

=====================================================================

At one point, I was a partner in an advertising agency. Our biggest client was the Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company, the producers of Wrigley’s Spearmint, Doublemint and Juicy Fruit gums (among myriad other brands).

The story is told about Philip K. Wrigley, son of the company’s founder who, along with a friend, was a passenger on a plane. The plane was in takeoff mode, and had just lifted off the ground.

The friend turned to Mr. Wrigley and said, “Phil, I’ve been thinking about your business. Almost everyone in America, if not the world, knows about Wrigley’s gum. Why do you keep spending so many millions on advertising? Why not just keep that money as profits.”

Mr. Wrigley’s response was, “This plane is going about 300 miles per hour and accelerating. If they shut off the engines, our momentum would keep us climbing for a while. But if the engines didn’t come back on soon, eventually we would crash.”

Economy hums along, proves taxing and spending prognosticators wrong
By Patrice Hill-The Washington Times Sunday, July 28, 2013

The U.S. economy has fared better than expected this year after widespread fears that $85 billion of automatic spending cuts and sharp increases in taxes imposed at the beginning of the year would snuff out growth.

Despite the unprecedented withdrawal of massive federal stimulus from the economy, the abrupt withdrawal of $600 billion of tax cuts Jan. 1, and state and local spending cuts of historic proportions in the past five years, the U.S. economic growth has trudged along at a 2 percent average rate since the recovery began in mid-2009.

I fully expect the debt hawks to claim current growth proves the need of more austerity. Hey, we’re cutting budgets and the economy is growing. What could be clearer?

Well, perhaps the following could be clearer:

It’s a graph of federal debt held by the public, one measure of net federal spending — the same graph you saw at: This graph predicts the future. What does it tell you? Wednesday, Jun 12 2013

The graph teaches that:

1. Every recession since 1959 has begun when net federal spending growth has fallen, relative to the previous year (aka austerity).

2. Every recession has ended during a time when net federal spending growth has risen.

3. The momentum generated by increases in net spending growth always carries the economy for several years after the economic engine slows down. About 10 years of reduced spending growth caused the recession of 2001. Only four years of reduces spending growth preceded the recession of 2008.

Why the difference? Other factors, in addition to net federal spending growth, lead to recessions. Wars, inflations, natural disasters, energy costs, interest rates, technological discoveries and implementation and unemployment, just to name a few.

Yet, reduced net federal spending growth precedes every recession. It is the one factor common to all 8 recessions.

The U.S. economy’s surprisingly good performance “breathes new life into the debate” over whether spending cuts and tax increases inevitably pose threats to growth that political leaders and economists have assumed, said Christopher Papagianis, who was a domestic policy adviser to President George W. Bush.

Look at the sharp increase in net federal spending growth that cured the most recent recession, and the sharp decrease since.

Our leaders consider a 2% – 3% growth from the abyss “good performance” — something to be thrilled about. Well, perhaps, but really, is the trend all that impressive?

monetary sovereignty

Look how current GDP growth compares with previous post-recession growth rates. Not much to brag about.

Despite our leaders’ smug self-assurance that the economy can grow while net federal spending is cut, they are leading us into yet another recession. Exactly, when will it come? No one can say, because no one can predict and weigh the other factors.

But come it will, and the cause will not be a “natural” cycle. There is nothing natural about a recession. The cause will be reduced federal stimulus.

(Remember how the debt hawks made “stimulus” a bad word, and the public bought into it — as though growing the economy was something to be avoided.)

Now, slowly and surely, as our economic world once again unnecessarily collapses, our bought-and-paid-for politicians continue to fight against “big government,” and for tax “simplification” with a “broader tax base,” and against federal stimulus, and for Social Security “reform” — and the gap between the rich and the rest continues to grow.

But facts? Who needs ’em? Right?

The Congressional Budget Office continues to forecast that the automatic spending cuts will reduce growth by about a half-percentage point and cost the economy about 700,000 jobs.

To quote the brilliant Texas Governor Perry: “OOPS!”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

====================================================================================================================================================

Nine Steps to Prosperity:
1. Eliminate FICA (Click here)
2. Medicare — parts A, B & D — for everyone
3. Send every American citizen an annual check for $5,000 or give every state $5,000 per capita (Click here)
4. Long-term nursing care for everyone
5. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone. Click here
6. Salary for attending school (Click here)
7. Eliminate corporate taxes
8. Increase the standard income tax deduction annually
9. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99%

10 Steps to Economic Misery: (Click here:)
1. Maintain or increase the FICA tax..
2. Spread the myth Social Security, Medicare and the U.S. government are insolvent.
3. Cut federal employment in the military, post office, other federal agencies.
4. Broaden the income tax base so more lower income people will pay.
5. Cut financial assistance to the states.
6. Spread the myth federal taxes pay for federal spending.
7. Allow banks to trade for their own accounts; save them when their investments go sour.
8. Never prosecute any banker for criminal activity.
9. Nominate arch conservatives to the Supreme Court.
10. Reduce the federal deficit and debt

No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.
Two key equations in economics:
1. Federal Deficits – Net Imports = Net Private Savings
2. Gross Domestic Product = Federal Spending + Private Investment and Consumption – Net Imports

#MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–Will this save Obamacare? Will it panic Obama?

Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Mitchell’s laws:
●The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes.
●Austerity is the government’s method for widening the gap between rich and poor,
which ultimately leads to civil disorder.
●Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.
●To survive long term, a monetarily non-sovereign government must have a positive balance of payments.
●Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
●The penalty for ignorance is slavery.
●Everything in economics devolves to motive.

=====================================================================

The single biggest financial problem facing America’s cities and states is underfunded pension plans.

Almost every U.S. non-federal government has them, and being monetarily non-sovereign, local governments have two very poor payment options: Soak the taxpayers, or first borrow and then soak the taxpayers to pay the loans.

Part of the underfunding comes from retiree health costs, and it is here that salvation may be at hand:

New York Times
Detroit Looks to Health Law to Ease Costs
By Monica Davey and Abby Goodnough, Published: July 28, 2013

As Detroit enters the federal bankruptcy process, the city is proposing a controversial plan for paring some of the $5.7 billion it owes in retiree health costs: pushing many of those too young to qualify for Medicare out of city-run coverage and into the new insurance markets that will soon be operating under the Obama health care law.

Officials say the plan would be part of a broader effort to save Detroit tens of millions of dollars in health costs each year.

It is being watched closely by municipal leaders around the nation, many of whom complain of mounting, unsustainable prices for the health care promised to retired city workers.

Similar proposals that could shift public sector retirees into the new insurance markets, called exchanges, are already being planned or contemplated in places like Chicago; Sheboygan County, Wis.; and Stockton, Calif.

A study issued this year by the Pew Charitable Trusts found 61 of the nation’s major cities wrestling with $126 billion in retiree health costs, all but 6 percent of that unfunded.

All over America, local governments will see Obamacare as a partial solution to otherwise impossible financial problems. Will the Obama administration get on board with this “help-on-a-silver-platter” opportunity?

If large numbers of localities follow that course, it could amount to a significant cost shift to the federal government.

Authors of the health care law expected at least some shifting of retirees into the new insurance exchanges, said Timothy S. Jost, a law professor at Washington and Lee University. “But if a lot of them do, especially big state and local programs that’s going to be a huge cost for the United States government, and it’s mandatory spending.”

And therein lies the problem — the false belief that the federal government can’t afford to pay the bills, and the even more ridiculous beliefs that somehow the cities and states can afford it — or that the retirees should do without.

The Chicago plan would phase some of the city’s 11,800 retirees and their family members not eligible for Medicare out of city coverage by 2017 — (shifting them) to insurance exchanges. The changes are expected to contribute to a larger effort to save Chicago $155 million to $175 million a year in retiree health care costs by 2017.

Now visualize all those Republican-dominated states that have resisted creating Obamacare insurance exchanges. Visualize the billions of dollars in costs that could be shifted from cash-strapped local governments to our Monetarily Sovereign federal government — our government that never can run short of dollars.

Visualize local politicians wanting that money.

The Republicans will howl and moan and scream about the extra costs to the federal government. They will resume the lies that the government is “broke” and “can’t afford” these extra costs, and has to “live within its means.” (John Boehner probably still has those speeches ready for re-use.)

But money to a politician is like raw meat to a starving dog. The local guys will snap up all they can get.

Add these billions to the billions states will receive for Medicaid support, and you have an irresistible force for Obamacare. Obama couldn’t be happier. Right?

Well, not so fast. There is a problem. Obama’s super rich supporters won’t like it. They don’t want the middle- and lower-classes receiving free healthcare. They want those people to spend their last dollars or to do without.

They want the gap between the rich and the rest to widen, not narrow. What’s the good of being super rich, if the “little” people are just as happy as you are, and you can’t make them beg?

No, it’s important to the rich that the underclasses be needy. So this is what I predict:

1. The red states will cave. They’ll say, “Too hell with our phony, austerity ideology; we need that real Obamacare money.”

2. National Republicans will continue lie and complain about “big government,” and the deficit (money supply growth), and continue trying to reinvent themselves as a more compassionate party that really, truly loves minorities — and continue to claim it’s just their message, not their actions, that lose them elections. (Ah, those poor misunderstood Republicans.)

But, being politicians, they’ll lead from the rear, and won’t change until the voters force change.

3. The biggest name to exhibit doubts will be Obama himself — not doubts about his health care plan, but doubts about federal finances. Our “bribed-by-the-rich” President, who supports the fake “need” to balance the federal budget, will find more ways to punish the middle- and lower classes at the behest of the rich.

Yes, he will support his signature accomplishment (for which, by the way, he personally expended little effort), but he will pull more money from middle Americans to “pay for” it.

He again will increase FICA, the most regressive tax in U.S.history. Social Security benefits will be cut, yet again. He will send more federal employees to the unemployment rolls.

Via his notorious “Grand Bargain,” he will ensure that the deficit (money supply growth) will continue to fall. He will cut spending on the myriad projects that benefit the middle- and poor-classes.

4. History will show that Obamacare was a partial successa complex, convoluted, unnecessarily byzantine partial success, that really should have been a much simpler, much more inclusive, much better Medicare-For-All plan.

Obama will be lauded for insuring more people and for cutting the deficit, just as Clinton was (Never mind that the Clinton surplus caused a recession).

The rich will be happy with Obama. They will give him his big library (as they did, Clinton), and reward him with lucrative speaking engagements (as they do, Clinton) and give the Obama kids great jobs (like Penny Pritzker received).

And for the rest of his life, the Obama’s will enjoy the thrill of hobnobing with rich, famous white people, who privately think he’s a jerk, but love the glory that surrounds him.

The middle- and lower classes will struggle more than ever. The gap between the rich and the rest will widen.

And all will be well with the world.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

====================================================================================================================================================

Nine Steps to Prosperity:
1. Eliminate FICA (Click here)
2. Medicare — parts A, B & D — for everyone
3. Send every American citizen an annual check for $5,000 or give every state $5,000 per capita (Click here)
4. Long-term nursing care for everyone
5. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone. Click here
6. Salary for attending school (Click here)
7. Eliminate corporate taxes
8. Increase the standard income tax deduction annually
9. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99%

10 Steps to Economic Misery: (Click here:)
1. Maintain or increase the FICA tax..
2. Spread the myth Social Security, Medicare and the U.S. government are insolvent.
3. Cut federal employment in the military, post office, other federal agencies.
4. Broaden the income tax base so more lower income people will pay.
5. Cut financial assistance to the states.
6. Spread the myth federal taxes pay for federal spending.
7. Allow banks to trade for their own accounts; save them when their investments go sour.
8. Never prosecute any banker for criminal activity.
9. Nominate arch conservatives to the Supreme Court.
10. Reduce the federal deficit and debt

No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.
Two key equations in economics:
1. Federal Deficits – Net Imports = Net Private Savings
2. Gross Domestic Product = Federal Spending + Private Investment and Consumption – Net Imports

#MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–Obama: Lift the middle class by raising taxes and cutting social benefits

Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Mitchell’s laws:
●The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes.
●Austerity is the government’s method for widening the gap between rich and poor,
which ultimately leads to civil disorder.
●Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.
●To survive long term, a monetarily non-sovereign government must have a positive balance of payments.
●Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
●The penalty for ignorance is slavery.
●Everything in economics devolves to motive.

=====================================================================

Imagine if someone said I’m going to cure your hunger by raising the price of food and by restricting your access to food. What would you call that guy? A liar? A con artist? Wouldn’t you wonder what his agenda really is?

Imagine if someone said I’m going to improve education by eliminating government support for education and by closing the schools. What would you call that guy? A liar? A con artist? Wouldn’t you wonder what his agenda really is?

If you think those examples are ridiculous, consider what President Obama has said and done.

New York Times
Obama Says Income Gap Is Fraying U.S. Social Fabric
By JACKIE CALMES and MICHAEL D. SHEAR, Published: July 27, 2013

President Obama said he was worried that years of widening income inequality and the lingering effects of the financial crisis had frayed the country’s social fabric and undermined Americans’ belief in opportunity.

“Upward mobility was part and parcel of who we were as Americans. And that’s what’s been eroding over the last 20, 30 years, well before the financial crisis.”

“If we don’t do anything, then growth will be slower than it should be. Unemployment will not go down as fast as it should. Income inequality will continue to rise. That’s not a future that we should accept.

“I will seize any opportunity I can find to work with Congress to strengthen the middle class, improve their prospects, improve our security.

Mr. Obama in the interview called for an end to the emphasis on budget austerity that Republicans ushered in when they captured control of the House in November 2010.

Wow, he’s concerned about income inequality, and strengthening the middle class and improving their security. That sounds really great. And most importantly, he wants to end the emphasis on budget austerity, which has killed our economy. This is really wonderful.

New fiscal cliff bill to increase FICA taxes for Alabamians
By Dana Beyerle, Times Montgomery Bureau, Published: Wednesday, January 2, 2013

The tax fix Obama said he will sign did not retain the 2 percentage point FICA, or Social Security, tax reduction from 2010. “It’s going to affect everybody,” said Gadsden CPA John Parr. “If you make $50,000, it’s going to cost you $1,000.”

Huh? Are you saying the guy who expressed so much concern about the middle class, actually signed a bill to increase the single most regressive tax in American history? Hmmm . . . why would he do that?

According to the Wall Street Journal, there does not appear to be any political motivation from either the Republicans or Democrats to extend the FICA reductions in to 2013

“No political motivation from the Democrats”? How could that be? The leader of the Democrats, the President of the United States, said he’s opposed to income inequality and the widening of the income gap between rich and not rich.

Huff Post,July 28, 2013
John Boehner Rejects Obama’s Grand Bargain On Debt Ceiling

Obama offered to put Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid cuts on the table in exchange for a tax hike of roughly $100 billion per year over 10 years. Meanwhile, government spending would be cut by roughly three times that amount.

Now wait a minute. The guy who said he wants to improve the security of the middle class, wants to cut Social Security? And he wants to cut Medicare and cut Medicaid, the three programs that most help the middle class? Hmmm . . . why would he do that?

And this guy wants to increase taxes and cut federal spending (the vast majority of which benefits the middle- and lower- classes), but he says he wants to end the emphasis on austerity? Hmmm . . . why would he do that?

What would you call such a guy? A liar? A con artist? Don’t you wonder what his agenda really is?

As for me, I’d call him a President who has been bribed by the super rich (via campaign contributions and promises of lucrative employment later) to widen the gap between the rich and the rest — and who is willing to do it by conning the middle class into believing he cares about us.

He may not be the worst President in our history. We’ve had plenty of bad ones. But on the “sneaky/deceptive/secrets” scale, he ranks way up there with the worst. No wonder he enjoys spying on us and hates Edward Snowden.

.

“My fellow Americans. The pea is under one of these three shells. Now watch carefully as I shuffle the shells . . . “

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

====================================================================================================================================================

Nine Steps to Prosperity:
1. Eliminate FICA (Click here)
2. Medicare — parts A, B & D — for everyone
3. Send every American citizen an annual check for $5,000 or give every state $5,000 per capita (Click here)
4. Long-term nursing care for everyone
5. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone. Click here
6. Salary for attending school (Click here)
7. Eliminate corporate taxes
8. Increase the standard income tax deduction annually
9. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99%

10 Steps to Economic Misery: (Click here:)
1. Maintain or increase the FICA tax..
2. Spread the myth Social Security, Medicare and the U.S. government are insolvent.
3. Cut federal employment in the military, post office, other federal agencies.
4. Broaden the income tax base so more lower income people will pay.
5. Cut financial assistance to the states.
6. Spread the myth federal taxes pay for federal spending.
7. Allow banks to trade for their own accounts; save them when their investments go sour.
8. Never prosecute any banker for criminal activity.
9. Nominate arch conservatives to the Supreme Court.
10. Reduce the federal deficit and debt

No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.
Two key equations in economics:
1. Federal Deficits – Net Imports = Net Private Savings
2. Gross Domestic Product = Federal Spending + Private Investment and Consumption – Net Imports

#MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–Paranoia: First read this; then read this.

Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Mitchell’s laws:
●The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes.
●Austerity is the government’s method for widening the gap between rich and poor,
which ultimately leads to civil disorder.
●Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.
●To survive long term, a monetarily non-sovereign government must have a positive balance of payments.
●Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
●The penalty for ignorance is slavery.
●Everything in economics devolves to motive.

=====================================================================

To learn of our growing immorality and lawlessness, the increasing, cowardly paranoia in America, you first should read this:

The magic of executive orders. How the President circumvents Congress and plays politics with the law: Tuesday, Nov 1 2011

Then read this:

Why is the NSA teaching your kids to be spies? Tuesday, Jul 2 2013

Then read this:

The magic of executive orders. How the President circumvents Congress and plays politics with the law:Do you trust the government, completely? Apparently, you do. Sunday, Jul 7 2013

And finally, read this marvelous article:

Bill Black: Is it Legal Malpractice to Fail to Get Holder to Promise Not to Torture your Client? July 27, 2013

Sadly, most of us Americans have so been brainwashed into paranoia, by the media and the politicians, we approve of the massive incursions into our privacy and freedoms by our “Big Brother” government.

We approve of the government learning about our every friend, contact, belief and statement, from our birth to our death.

We approve of our government executing all forms of torture, including waterboarding, extended solitary confinement, sleep deprivation, drugging, extended detention without trial, extended discomfort, humiliation and pain — all done in secret from us Americans, but known by the rest of the world.

We accede to the Obama “tradeoff” from real freedom for false security.

We approve of the need for every American to carry a loaded gun and even to shoot unarmed children if we “feel threatened.” (But, these days, don’t we always feel threatened?)

Why do we so unquestioningly agree with the fear-producing lies spread by our Presidents, and by National Rifle Association and others of their ilk.

Why do we embrace immoral leaders who exaggerate threats, to fuel our fears and to make us surrender our lives to their selfish desires?

What has become of us?

Cringing, cowardly paranoia: Is this what America really is all about?

Is this how we wish to be remembered?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

====================================================================================================================================================

Nine Steps to Prosperity:
1. Eliminate FICA (Click here)
2. Medicare — parts A, B & D — for everyone
3. Send every American citizen an annual check for $5,000 or give every state $5,000 per capita (Click here)
4. Long-term nursing care for everyone
5. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone. Click here
6. Salary for attending school (Click here)
7. Eliminate corporate taxes
8. Increase the standard income tax deduction annually
9. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99%

10 Steps to Economic Misery: (Click here:)
1. Maintain or increase the FICA tax..
2. Spread the myth Social Security, Medicare and the U.S. government are insolvent.
3. Cut federal employment in the military, post office, other federal agencies.
4. Broaden the income tax base so more lower income people will pay.
5. Cut financial assistance to the states.
6. Spread the myth federal taxes pay for federal spending.
7. Allow banks to trade for their own accounts; save them when their investments go sour.
8. Never prosecute any banker for criminal activity.
9. Nominate arch conservatives to the Supreme Court.
10. Reduce the federal deficit and debt

No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.
Two key equations in economics:
1. Federal Deficits – Net Imports = Net Private Savings
2. Gross Domestic Product = Federal Spending + Private Investment and Consumption – Net Imports

#MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY