–Do you want to see a (usually) reliable recession predictor?

Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Mitchell’s laws:
●The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes.
●Austerity is the government’s method for widening the gap between rich and poor,
which ultimately leads to civil disorder.
●Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.
To survive long term, a monetarily non-sovereign government must have a positive balance of payments.
●Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
●The penalty for ignorance is slavery.
●Everything in economics devolves to motive.

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Do you want to see a (usually) reliable recession predictor?

Look at the “0” line.

1. What usually happens when the employment/population ratio dips below zero growth? (Hint: look at the gray bars)

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Now, remembering that Gross Domestic Product = Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending – Net Imports:

2. What does the federal government do about Spending that gets us out of recessions?
3. What should the federal government do about Spending to prevent recessions?
4. What is the federal government doing right now?

Monetary sovereignty

I don’t know how you see it, but to my eye: When the employment-population ratio falls (dips below 0), we have a recession. And the federal government is doing exactly the wrong thing to prevent it.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

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Nine Steps to Prosperity:
1. Eliminate FICA (Click here)
2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D plus long term nursing care — for everyone (Click here)
3. Provide an Economic Bonus to every man, woman and child in America, and/or every state a per capita Economic Bonus. (Click here) Or institute a reverse income tax.
4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone. Click here
5. Salary for attending school (Click here)
6. Eliminate corporate taxes (Click here)
7. Increase the standard income tax deduction annually
8. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99% (Click here)
9. Federal ownership of all banks (Click here)

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10 Steps to Economic Misery: (Click here:)
1. Maintain or increase the FICA tax..
2. Spread the myth Social Security, Medicare and the U.S. government are insolvent.
3. Cut federal employment in the military, post office, other federal agencies.
4. Broaden the income tax base so more lower income people will pay.
5. Cut financial assistance to the states.
6. Spread the myth federal taxes pay for federal spending.
7. Allow banks to trade for their own accounts; save them when their investments go sour.
8. Never prosecute any banker for criminal activity.
9. Nominate arch conservatives to the Supreme Court.
10. Reduce the federal deficit and debt

No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.
Two key equations in economics:
1. Federal Deficits – Net Imports = Net Private Savings
2. Gross Domestic Product = Federal Spending + Private Investment and Consumption – Net Imports

THE RECESSION CLOCK
Monetary Sovereignty Monetary Sovereignty

As the federal deficit growth lines drop, we approach recession, which will be cured only when the lines rise. Federal deficit growth is absolutely, positively necessary for economic growth. Period.

#MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

10 thoughts on “–Do you want to see a (usually) reliable recession predictor?

  1. If you ask me, given the historical value of predictability in science, that graph and its associated formula should be considered worthy of a Nobel Prize. Seriously! Not blowing smoke.

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  2. THE OUTBREAK

    The euro-zone nations have austerity because they no longer use their own currencies. Other countries have austerity in order to deal with their foreign debt (and to widen the gap between the rich and the rest).

    Many countries, however, have gratuitous austerity. We see this in the English speaking world (UK, USA, Canada, Australia, etc) and also places like China, India, Israel and so on.

    Gratuitous austerity is a global pandemic caused by the “GAM” virus (gratuitous austerity mania virus).

    The “lab” where the virus first escaped was in the Metro Toronto Convention Centre in Canada. There, on the weekend of June 26–27, 2010 Prime Ministers Stephen Harper and David Cameron devised a plan to use austerity to increase the wealth gap wider than ever.

    There had been rumblings before that fateful incident. Reinhart and Rogoff published their now-infamous paper a couple of weeks before the G20 summit in Toronto. But the G20 summit itself was where the GAM virus officially escaped into the public. Obama himself was not infected by it until a year later (mid-2011) when he commissioned his Simpson-Bowles cat food commission, and also started talking about “grand bargains.”

    Before 2010 we were sick of the “war on terror,” sick of banks illegally foreclosing on people, sick of many things. We thought our condition couldn’t get any worse.

    …but then came the GAM virus, which now covers the planet.

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  3. Roger,
    The graphs are not displaying properly in neither Internet Explorer, or Google Chrome. They end at year 1990. I can, however, download the graphic and view through year 2014.

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  4. @RMM: The FRED graphs are cutoff on the right when I see them – Could it be my browser settings? (I’m using Safari for iMac). I tried resizing, but that didn’t work.

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  5. @RMM: The FRED graphs appear correct now in my browser – I didn’t change any settings. I’m using Safari (version 7.0.2 (9537.74.9)) for iMac. Strange.

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    1. It’s possible. Money is created in two ways and destroyed in two ways.

      Federal spending and private borrowing create dollars. Federal taxing and private debt reductions destroy dollars.

      When increases in private borrowing are sufficiently greater than decreases in net federal spending, that is stimulative.

      The problem however is in the fundamental difference between private borrowing and federal spending: Private borrowing must be paid back, which is recessionary. Federal deficit spending never needs to be “paid back.”

      It is the increases and decreases in private borrowing that lead to booms and busts. That is why federal deficits are the safest, most productive method for growing the economy.

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