Tag: inflation

–How to fight inflation and how not to.

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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I know this is a strange time to talk about fighting inflation. Recently we struggled up from a minus inflation (aka “deflation”) and now are at a puny 1% level. But too often, when I say that federal deficit spending should increase, a debt-hysteric concern expressed to me, is not just inflation, but the typical debt-hawk exaggeration: hyperinflation!

The debt-hawks seem to be the kind of folks who, upon seeing a starving child, would not feed that child for fear the food would cause obesity. Today, our economy is starved for money, but the debt hawks fear monetary obesity (aka “inflation”) and they warn us of wheelbarrows full of money. They give silly speeches about what they term “fiscal prudence” and what I term, “starving the baby.”

So as long as we must face debt hysteria, and the hysteria has to do with a non-existent though dreaded inflation, we might as well talk about preventing and curing inflation. Inflation is the loss in value of money compared to the value of goods and services.

So, there are two fundamental methods for curing inflation: Reduce the supply of money or increase the demand for money. Both methods increase the value of money vs the value of goods and services. (In theory, increasing the supply of goods and services or decreasing the demand for goods and services also would work, but there is no known method for accomplishing this without changing the money supply.)

Ideally, any anti-inflationary activity should be effective, quick to activate, quick to take effect, incremental, easy to rescind and not damaging to the economy. But while tax increases remove money from the economy, and so can be effective, they fail all the other tests. They are highly political; They are slow to pass through Congress. They take effect slowly, because taxes are collected slowly. They cannot be passed and implemented incrementally. They are difficult to undo. And they damage the economy. The require answers to difficult questions: Exactly which taxes should be increased? By how much? Should we have a tax increase during a stagflation? How do we calibrate an incremental tax increase?

Compare this approach with another approach: Interest rate increases. Interestingly, interest rate increases have both pro-inflation and anti-inflation effects. Pro inflation: Increase in business costs and increase in the money supply due to increased federal interest payments. Anti-inflation: Increase in the demand for money vs the demand for non-money.

On balance, the anti-inflation effects are stronger. One hint is this graph: graph 1that seems to indicate interest rate increases are followed about one year later by inflation decreases.

The other hint is the Fed’s ongoing success in controlling inflation despite massive increases in the money supply. Interest rate increases actually work.

Interest rate increases can be done quickly and in small or large increments — just what is needed for inflation control. And contrary to popular faith, high interest rates do not negatively affect GDP growth. See: Interest

In summary:
–We are nowhere near inflation
–We can control inflation by raising interest rates
–High interest rates do not negatively affect GDP growth

We can and should feed the starving economy without letting unfounded worries about our ability to prevent or cure the economy’s obesity, prevent us from saving the child.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–Reducing the federal deficit and other forms of national suicide

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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Here is what my local newspaper, the Chicago Tribune, says about the federal debt and deficit:

“First pay attention to Ireland, the latest nation to discover that when no one will take your IOUs, terrible things happen. In exchange for a bailout, Ireland has committed to huge spending cuts and brutal tax hikes that will inflict sever economic pain across the Emerald Isle for years.”

Right you are, Tribune. Tax hikes and spending cuts always cause severe damage to a nation and its people..

“Second, pay attention to Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson. The dogged co-chairmen of the president’s deficit commission are telling you how difficult it already will be to save the U.S. from reaching the day when no onee will take our IOUs.”

If that’s what Messrs. Bowles and Simpson are saying they are more dog-brained than dogged. The U.S., as a monetarily sovereign nation, does not need anyone to accept our IOUs, for this simple reason: A monetarily sovereign nation never needs to borrow the sovereign money it already has the unlimited ability to create. In fact, when the U.S. “borrows,” it simply exchanges T-securities it creates out of thin air for dollars it already has created, also out of thin air. Monetarily non-sovereign nations do need to borrow, because they do not have the unlimited ability to create money.

“The lesson from Ireland, the lesson from Bowles and Simpson, the lesson that official Washington still doesn’t want to hear: If we don’t make painful choices on spending and taxes right now, we’re going to invite chaos.”

Ireland is monetarily non-sovereign; the U.S. is monetarily sovereign. The Tribune doesn’t understand the difference. And because the Tribune and Messrs. Bowles and Simpson, and indeed the entire political establishment thinks U.S. finances are similar to monetary non-sovereign finances, we most certainly will have chaos. What these people imagine as a problem (deficits) actually is a benefit (money), and they try to cure this supposed problem with solutions that will damage us for decades. It’s like trying to “cure” good height by cutting off a person’s legs.

“(Bowles’ and Simpson’s) plan would raise the retirement age for Social Security [Keep paying FICA, but work ’til you drop], put federal health care programs on a strict budget [i.e. cut Medicare and Medicaid to improve health care], slash defense spending [for a stronger America] . . . It targets everything from federal payments to states reclaiming abandoned coal mines [Goodby environment] to restrictions that stop the Postal Service from shifting to five-day-a-week delivery [What next? Once-a-week delivery?]. Everybody gets gored one way or another.”

Yes, we all will get gored. But aside from worse health care, poorer retirement, more poverty, less national defense, worse education, worse environment and a thousand other reductions in the American life style, not only for us but for our children and our grandchildren, why worry? There is only one small detail. I almost hate to mention it, but: Where is the economic evidence that our federal deficit is too large? Nowhere.

Where do we see that the federal government can’t pay its bills? Nowhere. Where do we find that inflation threatens us? Nowhere. Where do we find that deficits cause recessions, depressions, stagflations, unemployment, poverty or any other form of economic miserey? Nowhere. According to the Tribune et al, the debt is big, ergo bad. Don’t ask for evidence. There is none. Just take your bitter pill on our say so.

Bowles and Simpson will make Osama bin Laden happy. Between them, they propose more damage to America than the Taliban and al-Qaeda together would be able to effect in a century. And all because of brutal ignorance.

“All together, the 16-nation eurozone has less debt and a much lower deficit in relation to its size than the United States has.”

The ignorance just grows and grows. The 16-nation eurozone is composed of both monetarily sovereign nations (which can service any size debt), and monetarily non-sovereign nations, which have limited debt-serving ability. The Tribune treats them as one. This respected paper sees no differences among the U.S., our states, counties, cities, businesses you and me. To the Tribune, whatever applies to one, applies to all.

“We’re not heading into trouble. We’re there.”

With thinkers like Bowles, Simpson, our political leaders and the Tribune editors, we are in desperate trouble, indeed.

But dammit, if they expect us to endure all this misery, and if they expect us to agree to harm our children and our grandchildren, and if they, in their own words, want to “inflict sever economic pain for years,” shouldn’t they at least be required to provide evidence all this is necessary?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–How the Ignorant Murder the Innocent: Debt-Hysteria Continues to Destroy America

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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How the Ignorant Murder the Innocent: Debt-Hysteria Continues to Destroy America

“NBC, msnbc.com and news services 12/1/10

“Extended unemployment benefits for nearly 2 million Americans begin to run out Wednesday, cutting off a steady stream of income and guaranteeing a dismal holiday season for people already struggling with bills they cannot pay.

“Unless Congress changes its mind, benefits that had been extended up to 99 weeks will end this month.

“Congress has let jobless benefits lapse twice already this year as Republicans insist the cost — $160 billion in the last fiscal year — be offset by cuts elsewhere to prevent the nation’s $13.8 trillion debt from growing further.

“Congressional opponents of extending the benefits beyond this month say fiscal responsibility should come first. Republicans in the House and Senate, along with a handful of conservative Democrats, say they’re open to extending benefits, but not if it means adding to the $13.8 trillion national debt.”

Ah, yes. “Fiscal responsibility.” Please someone remind me again; why did we go off the gold standard and become monetarily sovereign? What was the purpose of having the unlimited ability to create money? What exactly does “fiscal responsibility” mean? And what about human responsibility?

“‘I am not searching for a job, I am begging for one,’ said Felicia Robbins, 30, as she prepared to move out of a homeless shelter in Pensacola, Fla., where she and her five children have been living. She is using the last of her cash reserves, about $500, to move into a small, unfurnished rental home.”

The debt-hawks will tell you that unemployment benefits merely extend the time for lazy people to sit home, collecting checks. Of course, the Senators and Representatives collect their generous paychecks on time, so why worry about the “little” people?

If you are concerned about the gap between the rich and the poor, I remind you that this unnecessary, cruel action takes money from the poorest of us, increasing the gap.

As always, I urge you to contact your Congressperson, and try to educate him/her, before America reenters recession.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–Read how debt-hysteria destroys American medicine

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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Last Wednesday, 11/24/10, I posted America’s future if the debt hawks have their way. It told about the misery Ireland, not being monetarily sovereign now will suffer. The other EU nations, that also surrendered their monetary sovereignty, i.e Portugal, Greece, Italy, France et al, eventually will meet the same fate.

Sadly, though the U.S. is monetarily sovereign, and so can create unlimited dollars to service any size debt, our leaders do not understand the concept. In the name of “fiscal prudence,” we suffer at the hands of ignorance. Here are excerpts from an article (Doctors say Medicare cuts force painful decision) about elderly patients, demonstrating the harm debt-hawks do to our families and to us.

By N.C. Aizenman, Washington Post Staff Writer, Friday, November 26, 2010; 12:02 AM

“Want an appointment with kidney specialist Adam Weinstein of Easton, Md.? If you’re a senior covered by Medicare, the wait is eight weeks.

“How about a checkup from geriatric specialist Michael Trahos? Expect to see him every six months: The Alexandria-based doctor has been limiting most of his Medicare patients to twice yearly rather than the quarterly checkups he considers ideal for the elderly. Still, at least he’ll see you. Top-ranked primary care doctor Linda Yau is one of three physicians with the District’s Foxhall Internists group who recently announced they will no longer be accepting Medicare patients.

“’It’s not easy. But you realize you either do this or you don’t stay in business,’ she said.

“Doctors across the country describe similar decisions, complaining that they’ve been forced to shift away from Medicare toward higher-paying, privately insured or self-paying patients in response to years of penny-pinching by Congress.

“And that’s not even taking into account a long-postponed rate-setting method that is on track to slash Medicare’s payment rates to doctors by 23 percent Dec. 1. Known as the Sustainable Growth Rate and adopted by Congress in 1997, it was intended to keep Medicare spending on doctors in line with the economy’s overall growth rate. But after the SGR formula led to a 4.8 percent cut in doctors’ pay rates in 2002, Congress has chosen to put off the ever steeper cuts called for by the formula ever since.

“This month, the Senate passed its fourth stopgap fix this year – a one-month postponement that expires Jan. 1. The House is likely to follow suit when it reconvenes next week, and physicians have already been running print ads, passing out fliers to patients and flooding Capitol Hill with phone calls to convince Congress to suspend the 25 percent rate cut that the SGR method will require next year.”

Debt-hawks tell us that by reducing the federal deficit, they protect our children and grandchildren. But in fact, they condemn our children, grandchildren and us to more costly medical services, fewer doctors, nurses and hospitals, as well as to lower paying Social Security, poorer roads and bridges, a less-equipped military, worse schools and indeed less of every benefit our monetarily sovereign government easily is able to pay for.

Yes, the EU nations were foolish to surrender their ability to control their money supply. That control is one of the prime duties of any government. But we are even more foolish not to understand that we have that control, yet we neglect to use it.

Our leaders fear deficits, not realizing that “federal deficit” merely is a synonym for “money created this year.” Rather than being a negative, it’s a positive; it’s an absolute necessity.

Our leaders fear “federal debt” (which contrary to popular belief is not the total of deficits, but rather the total of outstanding T-securities). Federal debt could be eliminated by the simple act of no longer creating and selling T-securities. They became obsolete in 1971, the end of the gold standard. It is difficult to understand why Congress believes we must borrow the dollars we previously created and have the unlimited ability to create.

Our leaders fear ” uncontrollable inflation.” They do not understand we are so far from uncontrollable inflation that since we went of the gold standard, there has been no relationship between federal spending and inflation, . Further, our leaders don’t realize inflation easily can be controlled by raising interest rates, which is exactly how the Fed has controlled inflation all these years.

By what logic could these fears and the resultant actions, be considered “prudent” or “protecting our grandchildren”?

“Among the top points of contention is the complaint by doctors that Medicare’s payment rate has not kept pace with the growing cost of running a medical practice. As measured by the government’s Medicare Economic Index, those expenses rose 18 percent from 2000 to 2008. During the same period, Medicare’s physician fees rose 5 percent.

“’Physicians are having to make really gut-wrenching decisions about whether they can afford to see as many Medicare patients, said Cecil Wilson, president of the American Medical Association.’”

Of course, not all doctors are suffering. To continue quoting the article:

“On average, primary-care doctors make about $190,000 a year, kidney specialists $300,000, and radiologists close to $500,000, figures that reflect the income doctors receive from both Medicare and non-Medicare patients. The disparity has prompted concern that Medicare is contributing to a growing shortage of primary doctors.”

Whether an average income of $190,000 per year is enough to entice the thousands more doctors we need annually, to endure and pay for many years of post-graduate and internship is debatable. The article quoted one doctor:

”’I graduated medical school $100,000 in debt. I worked 110 hours a week during my residency for $30,000 a year and sacrificed all through my 20s. And even now, you’re still seeing people all day, with meetings and paperwork at night, on top of the emotional side of worrying when the patients you care for aren’t doing well. This is life-and-death stuff. And I feel like that should be compensated.’”

Many doctors have begun to restrict the number of Medicare patients, either by refusing to accept Medicare or by demanding annual fees (boutique doctors).

And the misery rolls down hill. I, who am on Medicare, received this note from Blue Cross, the supplementary insurance I pay for, because Medicare doesn’t pay enough: ‘Effective January 1, 2011, the deductibles and coinsurance amounts for Medicare Parts A and B will increase, which will result in Medicare paying less toward hospital and medical services next year. To compensate for Medicare’s changes, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Illinois will automatically update its coverage. ‘Update’ is a euphemism for ‘charge more’.”

So this is the way the debt hawks protect our children and our grandchildren. As medical costs increase, Medicare payments decrease. Our families will have fewer doctors from which to choose, receive less service and pay more. And all because of the false belief our monetarily sovereign government can’t afford to pay for America’s health care.

Watch the EU nations slide into poverty and know that is the future awaiting us. And know whom to blame.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”