Federal debt, myths and facts: What you’ve been told vs. the facts.

Here is what the St. Louis Fed says:

Debt-to-GDP Ratio: How High Is Too High? It Depends October 07, 2020, By Heather Hennerich

How much federal debt is too much? Is there a tipping point at which it becomes a big problem for a country?

One way to gauge the size of a country’s national debt is to compare it with the size of its economy—the ratio of debt to GDP. (GDP serves as a measure of an economy’s overall size and health, measuring the total market value of all of a country’s goods and services produced in a given year.)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one measure of size, but it is not a measure of health. There is no relationship between the health of an economy and the Debt/GDP ratio. Heather Hennerich’s claim that “GDP serves as a measure of an economy’s overall size and health” simply is false. In fact, the Debt/GDP ratio signifies nothing, nothing at all. Yes, it’s a fraction that is quoted all the time by people who should know better. But you might as well quote an apples/Apple phones comparison. Debt is a cumulative measure of federal government deficits since the beginning of time. GDP is a one year measure of an entire nation’s spending. If you want a similar comparison try the total amount of water a city has wasted vs. the amount of orange juice the mayor drank, yesterday. Call it the “waste/OJ” ratio, and claim it means something. Skim the following list of Debt/GDP ratios, and see if you can find any relationship between the Debt/GDP ratio, the population of the nation, and what you know about the health of its economy. Begin with the fact that wealthy, powerful Japan and weak, impoverished Greece are 1,2 on the list. The United States falls right between Mozambique and Djbouti on the list. Russia has one of the lowest ratios, indicating the “health” of its economy.

NATION — DEBT/GDP RATIO — POPULATION

The Debt/GDP ratio does not measure the health of an economy.
The next time you hear or read some pundit’s concerns about America’s Debt/GDP ratio, you will know that pundit does not know what he/she is talking about.

The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio was 107% late last year, and it went up to nearly 136% in the second quarter of 2020 with the passage of a coronavirus relief package.

By comparison, Japan’s ratio at the end of 2019 was higher: about 200%, according to data from the Bank of Japan and Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and calculations by St. Louis Fed Economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro.

By comparing the total federal debt to the size of a country’s economy, we can see how that government can use the resources at hand to finance the debt, according to Your Guide to America’s Finances from the U.S. Department of Treasury.

This wrongly assumes that federal (Monetarily Sovereign) finances are like personal (monetarily non-sovereign) finances. The federal government does not “finance” its debt. (Here the word “finance” seems to mean pay it off or perhaps pay interest on it.) The so-called “debt” is nothing more than deposits into privately owned, Treasury Security accounts. We say “privately owned” because the federal government never touches those dollars. As a depositor, you alone decide when to take dollars out or leave them in (following certain initial rules). The dollars are yours when you deposit them and when you retrieve them. That’s why they are not a “loan.” If they were a loan, the borrower would control them. But there is no borrower. The federal government never borrows dollars. These accounts are similar to safe deposit boxes into which you place your valuables. Just as the bank never touches those valuables, the federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, never needs to touch your deposited money. To pay off the so-called “debt” the government merely returns your dollars to you, the depositor. As for the “resources at hand,” we assume this means that in some mysterious way, the government supposedly uses GDP or perhaps Lake Michigan, to pay off T-securities. No one knows how that works. It’s all gibberish and nonsensical.

In his research, Faria-e-Castro explores big questions about the economy, so we asked him about this issue last year. 

Deficit spending means that a government is choosing not to raise taxes today to pay for that spending but is choosing to wait until tomorrow, Faria-e-Castro said.

Monetarily non-sovereign governments (state, local, euro) use taxes to fund spending. But Monetarily Sovereign governments (US, Canada, Japan, Australia, et al) do not use taxes to fund spending. A huge difference Faria-e-Castro seems not to understand. (And he’s an economist for the St. Louis Fed!!) Monetarily Sovereign governments use taxes to direct their economies by taxing what they want to discourage and giving tax breaks to what they want to encourage. There is scant similarity between federal finances and state/local government finances. Those who do not understand the difference should not be writing for the Federal Reserve. While state/local governments rely on tax income, the federal government could continue spending, forever, with no tax income at all.

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Then we come to this bit of misinformation, that applies to state/local governments, but not to the federal government:

When federal spending exceeds revenue, the difference is a deficit. The government mostly borrows money to make up the difference.

The federal government doesn’t borrow dollars. Why would it, given its infinite ability to create new dollars?

Alan Greenspan: “There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.”

Greenspan understood Monetary Sovereignty. Too bad he didn’t make his knowledge clear so we no longer would have ridiculous laws mandating a “debt ceiling.” Now, again, the nation is paralyzed by the useless debt ceiling while the GOP demands spending cuts though they have no idea what they want to cut. (They don’t have the courage to admit they really would like to cut Social Security and Medicare, so as to help the rich become richer.)

The total national debt is an accumulation of federal deficits over time, minus any repayments of debt, among other factors.

By law, the federal government accepts deposits into T-security accounts equal to the accumulation of federal deficits. This is a point of confusion, because people mistakenly are led to believe that the deposits pay for the deficits. They don’t. The deposits pay for nothing. The purpose of deposits (i.e. T-securities) is to provide a safe place to store dollars, which stabilizes the dollar.

A big consequence of deficit spending is that the fiscal burden shifts from one generation to the next, Faria-e-Castro said.

This is entirely wrong. You never have endured a “fiscal burden” for previous deficits. The government pays for all its deficits by creating new dollars from thin air. This is not a burden on anyone, not on you and not on the government. The “fiscal burden” myth, promulgated through the decades, is a result of ignorance about Monetary Sovereignty.

That’s fine if a country’s economy is growing, because you know that the next generation will, on average, be better off than the current one, and likely able to pay a little more in taxes to decrease the debt, Faria-e-Castro said.

But if a country’s economy is slowing and economic growth rates are lower than they used to be, “this starts becoming a more divisive issue.”

It’s only divisive for those who are ignorant about federal finances. “The next generation” doesn’t pay for back debt. The taxes paid by every generation see the same fate: All federal taxes are destroyed upon receipt. Tax dollars are paid from what is known as “the M2 money supply measure.” The moment they are received by the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure. In short, they are destroyed.

Say the government of “Country X” borrows money to cover its deficits, Faria-e-Castro said. Investors—many of them international—buy that debt and then want to be repaid.

“One day, the president of Country X can just organize a press conference and just tell people, ‘OK. We’re not paying,’” Faria-e-Castro said. “That’s an outright hard default.”

But countries that take that action will have trouble borrowing again. Lenders will be less willing to lend to them and will charge higher interest rates.

Here, Faria-e-Castro displays remarkable ignorance of national finance because he doesn’t differentiate between Monetarily Sovereign governments and monetarily non-sovereign governments. The monetarily non-sovereign governments borrow money because they have no sovereign currency.

“The president of Country X can call the governor of the central bank and say, ‘OK, you have to print money to pay for this debt,’” Faria-e-Castro said.

In a country where the central bank is not an independent authority, the central bank can be pressured more easily by politicians to start printing money to pay for the country’s debt, he said.

But the flow of new money will invariably lead to high inflation in that country. That erases the value of the debt—a “soft default”—but it also typically kicks off hyperinflation, Faria-e-Castro said.

Astoundingly, that is precisely what does not happen, and the evidence is there for all to see. Whether one views federal debt as “Federal Debt Held by The Public” (first graph below) or as “Federal Debt as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product” (2nd graph below), there is no relationship between federal debt and inflation.  
There is no relationship between federal debt held by the public and inflation. Peaks and valleys do not correspond.
 
There is no relationship between the Debt/GDP ratio and inflation. Peaks an valleys do not correspond.
It never ceases to amaze that obvious and readily available statistics are ignored by so-called “experts” in favor of hand-me-down beliefs having no basis in fact. Inflation is not related to federal spending because inflation is caused by shortages of key goods and services. Some claim that federal deficit spending causes those shortages, but for years and years, we’d seen massive federal spending, with low inflation. The federal dollars that led to increased demand also facilitated increased supply. That is how capitalism works; supply rises to meet demand. But suddenly, in 2020, we began to see inflation. What suddenly changed in 2020? COVID. The inflation that came suddenly in 2020, an inflation we still endure, was caused by COVID-related shortages of oil, food, computer chips, lumber, steel, shipping, labor, etc. There is no statistical relationship between federal deficit spending and inflation. But would you like to see something that does have a relationship with inflation?
Shortages of key goods and services (most often oil) cause inflation. Oil prices are closely related to supply. The peaks and valleys correspond between oil supply and inflation.
Yes, if you’re looking for the primary cause of inflation, start with oil shortages, which then relate to other shortages. COVID was responsible for shortages of oil, food, etc. It would be hard to make the case that after decades of big deficits, suddenly federal spending caused an increase in oil demand. Inflations are supply-related. Federal spending actually can cure inflation if the spending is directed toward obtaining the scarce goods and services and distributing them to the public. Contrary to popular wisdom, restricting federal spending during an inflation is counterproductive. 

Hyperinflation is excessive inflation, with very rapid and out of control general price increases. Economists usually consider monthly inflation rates of above 50% as hyperinflation episodes, as noted in a 2018 On the Economy blog post.

Faria-e-Castro explained, countries that are not politically stable and don’t have independent central banks are not going to have very credible institutions. As a consequence, they can’t borrow easily: Investors won’t be willing to lend them that much for fear of future default.

But the debt of countries with strong institutions and independent central banks—like the U.S. and Japan—doesn’t present the same risks, Faria-e-Castro said.

He thinks the difference between countries has to do with a “strong, central bank.” Poppycock. The central bank of a Monetarily Sovereign nation is strong because Monetary Sovereignty makes it strong. It has the unlimited ability to create its nation’s sovereign currency. Monetarily non-sovereign nations also have central banks. Sadly, these banks are weak because they do not have the unlimited ability to create sovereign currency: They have no sovereign currency to create.

Few believe, for example, that the Japanese government will ever pressure the Bank of Japan to actually “print” money to pay for the country’s debt, Faria-e-Castro said.

First, the Bank of Japan “prints” (creates) yen all the time. No “pressure” needed. It’s a normal, daily process. And second, those yen do not pay for the country’s debt. They pay for the country’s purchases. Like the U.S., the Japanese government does not borrow to pay for anything. It creates yen to pay for everything.

“As a consequence, these countries can typically sustain very high levels of debt to GDP,” he said. “Because people really believe that they will be repaid, so they can keep lending.”

There’s that phony Debt/GDP ratio, again. The U.S. doesn’t borrow.  It issues Treasury bills, notes, and bonds, and if not enough are issued to satisfy the law, the Federal Reserve Bank simply buys the rest.

The strength of institutions also affects interest rates on the debt, which is another factor in determining the sustainability of high debt-to-GDP ratios.

No, the Fed determines short-term interest rates by fiat. And that meaningless Debt/GDP ratio is infinitely sustainable.

If a country has strong institutions, interest rates on the debt will be low, which means the cost of borrowing will be low, Faria-e-Castro said.

When he talks about the “cost of borrowing,” he mistakenly believes government T-securities represent borrowing. They don’t. They represent deposits. These deposits are paid off, not with taxes but by returning the dollars that are in the accounts. And whether interest rates are high or low is irrelevant to a Monetarily Sovereign nation having the infinite ability to create the currency to pay interest.

Because the institutional strength and riskiness of countries varies, there’s no rule of thumb for how high a debt-to-GDP ratio can be before it poses a risk to a country’s economy.

“At the end of the day, it all boils down to strong and independent institutions,” Faria-e-Castro said.

“A lot of economists try to study this. There’s no single measure that we can come up with… Measuring institutional strength is not obvious.”

It’s not obvious because Faria-e-Castro is confusing federal financing with private financing. He doesn’t understand the difference between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty. And he’s speaking for the Federal Reserve!? Yikes! He falls in line with the current mistaken belief that fighting inflations requires the pain of recession that cuts in federal spending beget. That is the kind of leadership that destroys nations. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Oh, Veronique, you write so much and seem to know so little about America’s #1 scam.

Veronique de Rugy
Veronique d Rugy. Is she lying or does she really not understand federal finance? Or?

VERONIQUE DE RUGY is a contributing editor at Reason.

She is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

According to the 2017 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (Think Tanks and Civil Societies ProgramUniversity of Pennsylvania), Mercatus is number 39 in the “Top Think Tanks in the United States” and number 18 of the “Best University-Affiliated Think Tanks”. 

The Koch family has been a major financial supporter of the organization since the mid-1980s. Charles Koch serves on the group’s board of directors.

The following is Ms. de Rugy’s article from the Libertarian website, REASON.com.

Social Security Is on the Brink of Collapse. The GOP Won’t Touch It. In 1950, there were more than 16 workers for every beneficiary. In 2035, that ratio will be only 2.3 workers per retiree. VERONIQUE DE RUGY | 1.26.2023 12:01 AM

If you follow policy debates long enough, arguments you never thought you’d hear can become key components of the two parties’ policy platforms.

That’s certainly the case when it comes to some Republicans, and their new “never touch Social Security and Medicare” position.

Over the weekend, newly elected Sen. J.D. Vance (R–Ohio) tweeted that former President Donald Trump was 100 percent correct to demand that “under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security.”

Vance’s tweet was issued amid the debt ceiling fight, but Trump has long held this position.

The Republicans would love to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits because that would increase the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest. The Gap is what makes the rich rich. If not for the Gap, no one would be rich. We all would be the same. The wider the Gap, the richer are the rich. The GOP, the party of the rich, is always ready to help make the rich richer. Their big tax reduction during the Trump years enriched the rich and did nothing for the middle and poor. The GOP complaints about funding the IRS had to do with protecting the rich. So long as the IRS is underfunded, they don’t have the manpower to investigate the complex tax returns of the rich, so currently, they focus on the middle and lower levels. The only reason the GOP won’t try to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits is that they would be punished at the polls, not because they care about the health and well-being of the middle or poor. They don’t. Watch for the GOP “solution” to the non-problem of Social Security and Medicare finances to be something that doesn’t hurt the rich, such as increasing the FICA income limit. Rich people aren’t worried about paying FICA taxes on an above $150M salary. Not only is that chump change for the rich, but many don’t pay any FICA because they aren’t salaried.

Now, to be fair, the GOP’s well-intentioned engagement in the overall debt ceiling dispute is limited by the short time Congress has to raise the limit, all but ruling out credible reforms of Medicare or Social Security.

GOP’s “well-intentioned” engagement in the debt ceiling dispute?? I didn’t realize Veronique was a humor writer. Or perhaps she believes her readers are fools.

Reforming these two programs will take a considerable amount of time and requires bipartisan action. However, this reality is no reason to assert that the programs’ benefits should never be touched.

In right-wing speak (Yes, Libertarians are closet right-wingers), “reform” Social Security and Medicare means cut benefits to the middle class and the poor.

I cannot wait to hear the grand plan that the “don’t touch Social Security and Medicare” Republican caucus has to address the $116 trillion over 30-year shortfall—that’s 6 percent of U.S. GDP—facing the two programs.

No action from Congress means no money to pay for all the benefits. That means enormous cuts that will hurt the low-income seniors who depend on the programs.

That is a bald-faced lie. The federal government could double, triple, or quadruple benefits for both programs while eliminating all FICA collections and still have money to pay Congressional, Presidential, and SCOTUS salaries. Contrary to popular myth, FICA pays for nothing. Every FICA dollar ripped from your paycheck and sent to the U.S. Treasury is destroyed upon receipt. The dollars come from the M2 money supply, so when you pay $1 in federal taxes, the M2 money supply declines by $1. But when those M2 dollars reach the Treasury, they instantly cease to exist in any money supply measure. There is no money supply measure for federal funds simply because the federal government has the infinite ability to create dollars. Thus, the federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has infinite dollars. Adding your tax dollars to infinity doesn’t change infinity.

Of course, if Vance and friends insist on not touching benefits, they could address the Social Security and Medicare shortfalls with enormous tax hikes.

Federal taxes don’t fund federal spending, so they can’t “address Social Security and Medicare shortfalls.”

For Social Security alone, when the trust fund dries out, they will have to agree to immediately raise the payroll tax from 12.4 percent to 15.64 percent—or close to a 25 percent tax increase.

Add to that the tax hike necessary for Medicare and then repeat the exercise over the years to fill the entire shortfall.

The tax hikes would have no effect on Social Security and Medicare solvency. These federal agencies and all other federal agencies are solvent because they are funded by the infinitely solvent U.S. government. The misnamed federal “debt” is not a debt of the federal government. The government has paid all its debt the same way: By creating dollars from thin air. The federal debt is the net total of all federal deficits — the difference between total spending and total taxing. That difference is bridged by federal money creation so that all obligations are paid on time. Have you ever wondered how the federal government can raise the debt ceiling whenever it wishes? According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the debt ceiling has been raised, extended, or revised 78 separate times since 1960. And all these increases were done without tax increases (otherwise, the debt ceiling would not have been reached) because federal taxes don’t fund anything. (State and local governments (unlike the federal government) are monetarily NON-sovereign. They don’t have the unlimited ability to create dollars, so their taxes do fund their spending.)

It’s not as if we haven’t been warning politicians that these troubles were brewing. Back in 2000, roughly when I started working on fiscal issues, experts already warned that the Social Security trust fund would run out of assets by 2037, triggering painful benefit cuts.

Not only does the Social Security trust fund not pay SS benefits, but it isn’t even a trust fund. To quote right-winger Pete Peterson:

WHAT ARE FEDERAL TRUST FUNDS? Sep 20, 2016, Peter G. Peterson Foundation

A federal trust fund is an accounting mechanism used by the federal government to track earmarked receipts (money designated for a specific purpose or program) and corresponding expenditures.

The largest and best-known funds finance Social Security, Medicare, highways and mass transit, and pensions for government employees.

Federal trust funds bear little resemblance to their private-sector counterparts.

In private-sector trust funds, receipts are deposited and assets are held and invested by trustees on behalf of the stated beneficiaries.

In federal trust funds, the federal government does not set aside the receipts or invest them in private assets.

Rather, the receipts are recorded as accounting credits in the trust funds, and the receipts themselves are comingled with other receipts that Treasury collects and spends.

The misnamed trust funds are wholly owned and controlled by the federal government. It can add to them, subtract from them or do whatever else it wishes with them. The notion that the trust funds will run out of money and so can’t pay Social Security or Medicare benefits is ridiculous on its face. The federal government pays whatever benefits it wishes, regardless of so-called “trust funds.’ Further, the government has the unlimited power to add to, or subtract from those fake trust funds whenever it wishes. The whole Social Security/Medicare trust fund fiction is a giant scam to make you believe the government can’t afford SS and Medicare benefits. When politicians whined that Medicare for All or Social Security for All needed to be “paid for” by tax increases or benefit cuts, the sole purpose was to make you agree to widening the income/wealth/power Gap between you and the rich. It is America’s biggest, most crooked scam, and you have been falling for it since Social Security began on August 14, 1935. And you still fall for it without complaint. It’s a scam that makes Bernie Madoff look like an angel. One wonders why you don’t fret about the White House trust fund, the SCOTUS trust fund, the Congress trust fund, the Bureau of Labor Statistics trust fund, the Capitol Police trust fund, the Army trust fund, the Coast Guard trust fund, and all the other federal department and agency trust funds. Oh, they don’t have trust funds? So where do they get their money? Ah, the federal government simply pays the bills by creating dollars from thin air. Just pay thepreciselyand stop lying about “trust funds.” that is exactly what the federal government should do about Social Security and Medicare.

Today, the situation has deteriorated further, with the trust fund now on track to run dry in 2035, along with any practicable hope for fixing the problem.

The fake “trust fund” will run dry only if Congress and the President want it to run dry.

In other words, these problems shouldn’t surprise anyone. When Social Security started, life expectancies were lower. In 1950, there were more than 16 workers for every beneficiary. That ratio is now below three workers per retiree and will be only 2.3 workers per retiree by 2035.

The number of workers per beneficiary is completely irrelevant. Workers do not pay for beneficiaries. FICA does not pay for anything. It’s destroyed. It exists only to con you. Period.

Add to this trend decades of politicians buying votes by expanding benefits beyond incoming payroll taxes, and you have a true fiscal crisis.

To the Libertains’ sneering and twisted minds, giving the populace benefits is “buying votes.” But the sole purpose of any government is to protect and enhance the people’s lives.  If any government doesn’t provide benefits, it’s not doing what it was created to do.

That’s why it’s so alarming that so many in the GOP are giving up on educating a public that’s been brainwashed for years with misleading soundbites like “You earned your Social Security benefits, so you are entitled to the benefits now promised,” or “There’s an account with your name on it.”

There is, in fact, an account with your name on it, and it’s called a T-security account. If you have deposited money into a T-bill, T-note, or a T-bond, you have put dollars into your T-security account. Those dollars belong to you. The federal government never touches them. When your account matures, the government returns the dollars in your account. The total of dollars in all T-security accounts is erroneously termed, “the federal debt.” But it not federal and it is not debt. Your dollars belong to you, not the federal government, and there is no debt. Your dollars are safe and comfortably resting in your account just as though they were in your pocket or safe deposit box. Just as the contents of bank safe deposit boxes are not bank debt, the contents of T-security accounts are not federal debt.

Such misinformation has made serious discussion of reform very difficult.

Yes, that is exactly what misinformation has done.

There’s no question that retirees deserve fair treatment, but the facts are that the Supreme Court ruled in 1960 that workers do not have a legally binding right to Social Security benefits, and if Congress cuts benefits even by, say, 50 percent, it can do so—no matter how much anyone has paid into the program.

And so goes the “trust fund” myth. If they were trust funds, you would have a legal right to those benefits, but you don’t and SCOTUS has said so. And they are not trust funds. Congress and the President have 100% control over benefits, which can be raised or cut, arbitrarily, as can the amount of money claimed to be in those fake “trust funds.” What does that say about the mythical trust funds? What does that say about Veronique de Rugy’s claims?

It won’t come to that, but the ruling still stands. It’s also fiction that all the benefits that have been promised were earned by workers—they weren’t.

That’s in part because current retirees are paid with taxes from current workers, not from funds saved out of the payroll taxes retirees paid when they were in the workforce.

No, no, no. Current retirees are not paid with federal taxes. They are paid by the federal government’s infinite ability to create dollars. The purpose of federal taxes is not to fund federal spending. The purpose of federal taxes is to control the economy by punishing what the government wishes to discourage and by rewarding (via tax breaks) what the government wishes to encourage.

It’s magical thinking to say that touching Social Security and Medicare is a nonstarter.

Touching Social Security and Medicare is not a financial nonstarter. The government could increase or decrease benefits at will. But decreasing benefits could be a voter nonstarter and increasing benefits could a rich-donor nonstarter. That rug-of-war is the called the “debt-limit-debate. It’s a debate between the rich and the rest, except the “rest” don’t even know there is a debate, much less a solution.

Even more strange, many of the same Republicans want to spare these two programs while still putting Medicaid on the chopping block. Medicaid should be reformed too, but at least that program serves poor people.

By contrast, the seniors who receive Social Security and Medicare today are overrepresented in the top income quintile while younger Americans are overrepresented in the bottom quintile.

So these guys want to cut benefits for poor people on Medicaid while subsidizing relatively wealthy boomers with taxes taken from relatively poor youngsters.

Yikes.

No, the real “yikes” to to writers like Veroique de Rugy who repeatedly promulgate misinformation about the federal “debt” and the fictional Social Security and Medicare “trust funds.” YIKES!!!!!

The GOP’s transformation into the party of big and fiscally reckless government is proceeding apace.

We agree there. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

 
CONGRESS, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE, MEDICAID, DONALD TRUMP, ENTITLEMENTS, POLICY, FISCAL POLICY, OHIO, DEBT, NATIONAL DEBT, DEBT CEILING, REPUBLICAN PARTY, DEMOCRATIC PARTY, GDP, INCOME, POVERTY, TAXES, PAYROLL TAX, POLITICS, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT BENEFITS, EMPLOYMENT, MISINFORMATION, SUPREME COURT, WEALTH, GOVERNMENT, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, BIG GOVERNMENT, ECONOMY, ECONOMICS

The CRFB gives you Social Security choices. Hello, sucker.

The mouthpiece for the rich, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, has a web site that says this:

Social Security provides vital income security to millions of beneficiaries but is on a road toward insolvency.

The Social Security program currently pays more in benefits than it collects in revenue, and under the latest official projections, its trust funds will run out in 2035.

At that point, all beneficiaries regardless of age and income will face an immediate 20 percent benefit cut.

CRFB’s “The Reformer” allows users to choose from a number of options to modify Social Security tax and benefit levels in order to close the program’s 75-year shortfall and keep it sustainable for future generations.

See how your choices stack up!

The truth: The federal government cannot become insolvent. SS is a federal agency. Like the government, SS can’t become insolvent unless Congress and the President want it to. The so-called SS “trust funds” are not real trust funds. They are line items on balance sheets that the federal government can control at will. They can increase or decrease the balances just by pressing computer keys. The non-issue of sustainability is to make you believe you have to give up benefits so that by comparison, the rich get richer. Then, the CRFB gives you a little online game that shows you how much to cut your benefits so that the federal government won’t run out of dollars. Of course, it’s all a lie. As you (and they, surely) know, our Monetarily Sovereign government, the creator of the dollar, cannot run out of the dollars it freely creates every minute of every day.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

But the CRFB doesn’t provide that information. Instead, it provides the following choices, which ask you how much less you would like to receive from Social Security:

Increase (+) / Reduce (-) Initial Benefits Slow Benefit Growth for Top 70% of Earners Slow Benefit Growth for Top Half of Earners Slow Benefit Growth for Top 20% Of Earners

Increase Retirement Age Raise Age from 67 to 68 Index Age to Longevity After it Reaches 67 Raise Age to 69 then index to Longevity

Modify Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs) Index COLAs to “Chained CPI” Index COLAs to “Chained CPI” and Means-Test Them Index COLAs to “CPI-E”

Then, the CRFB asks how much more you would like to pay to our poor, destitute federal government:
Increase (+) / Reduce (-) Payroll Tax Rate by: Increase Taxable Maximum Subject All Wages to Payroll Tax Subject 90% of Wages to Payroll Tax Tax All Wages Above $400,000
Raise Additional Revenue Cover Newly-Hired State & Local Workers Apply the Payroll Tax to “Cafeteria Plans” Increase Taxation of Benefits Invest in the Stock Market Diversify the Trust Fund to Increase Returns Divert 2% of Payroll Tax to “Carve-Out” Accounts Allow Contributions into “Add-on” Accounts
And some other ideas that pretend to “save” Social Security but really are to make you believe the U.S. federal government is running short of the dollars it originally created from thin air, and still creates from thin air.
The one alternative the CRFB doesn’t provide is the correct one:
Provide Social Security benefits to every man, woman, and child in America, paid for by the federal government which has the unlimited power to create dollars.
Don’t be fooled by the CRFB and others of their ilk. Neither America nor Social Security can become insolvent unless that is what Congress and the President want.
The U.S. federal government has the infinite ability to pay for things, which it has been proving since 1940, when the net total of federal deficits was just $40 billion.
Today, the net total of federal deficits is more than $25 TRILLION, and there still is zero insolvency on the horizon.
A government never can run short of its own currency.
If you believe the answers to America’s financial questions are more taxes or lower benefits, and you don’t know who the sucker is, you are the sucker.
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The federal debt con on you

Here is what former Federal Reserve Chairmen said when they were being honest:

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

Ben Bernanke says he never expected interest rates to stay at zero for so long - MarketWatch
On 60 Minutes Ben Bernanke explained that federal tax money is not spent: Scott Pelley: “Is that tax money the Fed is spending?” Bernanke: “It’s not tax money . . . We simply use the computer to mark up the account.”
Get it? The U.S. government cannot run short of dollars unless it wants to. Now mull that over and explain to yourself why the federal government, having the infinite ability to create dollars, should be concerned about the dollars it supposedly owes. Read the following articles as you keep that infinite ability in mind:

Yellen says US is projected to hit debt ceiling on Jan. 19 by Aris Folley – 01/13/23 12:46 PM ET

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. is projected to reach its roughly $31.4 trillion borrowing limit in less than a week.

The question, “Why does the U.S. government have a borrowing limit?” leads to two questions:
  1. Why does the U.S. government, which is Monetarily Sovereign (i.e., having that infinite ability to create its own sovereign currency), borrow dollars?Answer: The U.S. government never borrows dollars. It accepts deposits into Treasury Security accounts, the purpose of which is not to supply the government with its own dollars (The government never touches those deposits.)The purpose of T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds is to provide a safe place for dollar users to store unused dollars. This helps stabilize the dollar.
  2. Why does the U.S. government limit acceptance of deposits into T-security accounts (aka “debt”).Answer: There is no rational financial reason. The con is to make the public believe falsely that federal finances are like personal finances, where spending must be limited to income.But federal finances are entirely different.The federal government cannot run short of dollars.The con goes something like this:Congress cannot control its spending, so to be “prudent,” a law that limits spending is needed. Unfortunately, this is all hogwash. Spending does not need to be controlled (as demonstrated by the repeated increases in the “debt limit) the debt limit law does not control spending. It controls paying for what already has been spent.

Yellen shared the estimate in a letter to Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Friday. She also warned the department would soon have to begin taking “extraordinary measures” to stave off a default to buy time for Congress to find a bipartisan solution.

Those measures include temporarily redeeming existing and suspending new investments of the Civil Service, Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, as well as suspending reinvestment of the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan.

We’ve accented the word “temporarily” to demonstrate that Yellen, Congress, and the world know the debt limit will be raised. It will happen only after the Republican Representatives have had their chance to parade their fake thrift by giving speeches about spending cuts Then, they will return to spending. It’s all a charade for the benefit of you, the voting public.

Yellen added that the funds would be “made whole” after the debt limit impasse has ended. 

“Impasse has ended” means the limit will be raised again after all the lies have been told. How will the funds be made “whole?” The government will do what it always has done: It will create new dollars from thin air, to pay all its bills. That is precisely what the government has done every year of the phony debt ceiling and will continue to do in the future.

While the secretary said it’s unlikely cash and extraordinary measures will run out before early June, she stressed the measures will only last for “a limited amount of time” and pressed for Congress to “act in a timely manner” to raise or suspend the ceiling.

The letter to McCarthy comes as a high-stakes fight over raising the debt ceiling looms over the further Congress after Republicans took back control of the lower chamber last week.

McCarthy has pressed for any action to address the debt ceiling to be tied to spending cuts sought by Republicans.

The “spending cuts sought by Republicans are cuts to social programs — Medicare, Social Security, poverty aids — whatever helps those who are not rich. Benefits to the rich will not be cut, as the rich are the main contributors to the Republican party. Also, anything that will help grow the economy will be cut because, in advance of the next elections, the Republicans want the Biden administration to be blamed for a weak economy.

However, proposals for significant cuts are likely to find trouble in the Senate, where Democrats still hold control.

“If you’re going to ask for an increase in the limit, at some point in time, you’ve got to sit down and say why are we hitting the limit? Why are we maxing out the credit card?”

The “credit card” analogy often is used. It is a false analogy, and anyone using it is ignorant about federal finance, a liar, or both. The federal government does not use anything even remotely resembling a credit card. It pays all its financial obligations the same way: It creates new dollars, ad hoc. There is no credit card. There is no borrowing. In fact, the federal “debt” isn’t even a real debt. The T-security accounts are mere dollar storage — similar to bank safe deposit boxes. The government never touches those dollars. It creates all the dollars it uses. The dollars remain the property of the depositors. Just as your bank does not count what you have in your bank safe deposit box as “debt,” the federal government does not owe the contents of T-security accounts. To pay off this misnamed “debt,” the government merely returns the contents of those accounts. This is not a burden on the government or on taxpayers or on T-security holders. Previous Fed Chairmen have testified that the federal government cannot run short of dollars. Even if the government collected $0 in taxes, it still could continue spending forever. It’s a little-known secret that federal taxes are unlike state/local government taxes. All taxes are paid with dollars from the M2 money supply measure, but when federal tax dollars hit the U.S. Treasury, they disappear from any money supply measure. They effectively are destroyed. Yes, those tax dollars you work so hard to earn and you waste so much time and money calculating and paying are destroyed upon receipt by the federal government. Never used, never needed, the purpose of federal taxes is not to fund federal spending. They help the government control the economy by punishing what the government doesn’t like and by rewarding, via tax breaks, what the government wishes to aid. (By contrast, state/local tax dollars remain in the economy as part of one or more money supply measures.) The entire “debt limit” scene is a kabuki play designed to impress you. The Republicans want to make the rich richer by widening the Gap between the rich and the rest. The Gap is what makes the rich richer. Without the Gap, no one would be rich — we all would be the same — and the wider the Gap, the richer are the rich. To widen the Gap, the Republicans try to cut benefits to the populace, all in the name of “prudence.” The Democrats try to demonstrate their frugality chops by pushing the “debt limit” button, but only when they are out of office, so the Republicans can be blamed for a weakened economy. This con has been running for your amusement since 1939 when the so-called debt was called a “ticking time bomb.” That bomb has been ticking for 84 years and presumably will continue ticking as long as liars are in Congress, i.e., forever. Here is another article on the same subject:

Will the U.S. Ever Pay Off Its Debt? Ways to Reduce the National Debt By Kimberly Amadeo Updated on October 4, 2022 Reviewed by Robert C. Kelly Fact checked by Emily Ernsberger.

Congress has made many attempts to lower the national debt, but it hasn’t been able to reduce the growth of what the nation owes.

Yes, Congress has made many attempts to lower the federal debt.

For clarity, federal debt is not real debt. It is the net total of deposits into Treasury security accounts — T-bills, T-notes, T-bonds — since the nation’s founding. To pay off this “debt,” the government merely returns the accounts’ balances.

The national debt is a nonsensical figure that totals the above T-security accounts plus all U.S. private debt (mortgages, credit card debt, etc.) It’s something like adding water in the lakes to alcohol to find the total amount of liquid in America.

The U.S. debt is the outstanding obligation owed by the federal government.

Now, the author refers confusingly to “U.S. debt.” Presumably, she means federal debt, though it is not owed by the federal government any more than the contents of a bank safe deposit box are owed by the bank. Those deposits are owned by the depositors and are merely held for security by the U.S. Treasury.

It exceeded $31 trillion in for the first time on Oct. 4, 2022, and it has increased by at least $1 trillion each year since 2016.1 

Federal debt is at its highest point in American history. Raising taxes and cutting spending are two of the most popular solutions for reducing debt, but politicians may be hesitant to do both.

The word “solutions” indicates that the writer believes the federal “debt” is a problem. It isn’t. The federal government quickly could pay off the entire federal “debt” today merely by returning all the dollars that exist in T-security accounts. This would cost America and American taxpayers $0. Sadly, the “solutions” for reducing the federal “debt” often involve reducing federal deficit growth or even running federal surpluses. This is what happens when the government reduces deficit growth:  
Reductions in federal deficit growth introduce recessions, which then must be cured by increases in deficit spending. The red line is federal deficit growth. Vertical gray bars are recessions.
This is what happens when the federal government reduces the federal “debt” by running surpluses:

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

When the federal government runs a surplus (taxes exceed spending), we usually have a depression. The reason: Recessions and depressions are measured by decreases in Gross Domestic Product, which is:

GDP = Federal Spending + Non-federal spending + Net Exports

Federal spending decreases also cause non-federal spending decreases in an overall decrease in money creation. The economy shrinks and, in an endless feedback loop, will continue to shrink unless the federal government cures the depression or recession with a healthy dose of deficit spending. The author posts this illustration that is utter nonsense: Text reads: "4 ways the US can pay off its debt: cut government spending; raise taxes; drive economic growth at a faster rate; shift spending to areas that create the most jobs" She begins with “Cut government spending” and “raise taxes,” i.e., reduce deficit growth — precisely what we see causes recessions. Then she adds, “Drive economic growth at a faster rate,” but does not say how to do that when government spending falls and taxes rise. Finally, she says, “Shift spending to areas that create the most jobs.” Again, she doesn’t explain how that would be done with less spending and higher taxes, but spending in areas that have more jobs may not be efficient, economically.

Diverting spending from the military to other sectors may boost job growth, which could spur consumer spending and help the economy.

She doesn’t explain why diverting spending from the military boosts job growth. The military not only is a massive employer, but far more importantly is a massive consumer. It purchases everything from weapons to research to all sorts of ancillary products and services, many of which transition to non-military use (think GPS, etc.) And of course, the military defends us, but hey, when you’re cutting deficits, who cares about defense. Right?

What’s Stopping the U.S. From Paying Down Its Debt?

Most creditors don’t worry about a nation’s debt, also known as “sovereign debt,” until it’s more than 77% of gross domestic product (GDP).

That’s the point at which added debt cuts into annual economic growth, according to the World Bank.

When economists don’t know what they are talking about, it usually is because they don’t understand Monetary Sovereignty. There is a vast, sometimes diametric, difference between a Monetarily Sovereign government and a monetarily non-sovereign government. Studies that lump the two usually come to wrong conclusions. It’s like lumping professional football and backyard croquet into a study of athletics on health. The above-referenced World Bank study is a classic example:

“Finding The Tipping Point — When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad” Authors/Editors: Thomas Grennes, Mehmet Caner, Fritzi Koehler-Geib

Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth.

Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time?

The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. 

Of the “101 developing and developed economies” few would be massive, developed, Monetarily Sovereign. Perhaps, three or four, and none of those is like the United States. It’s a phony study that ignores reality, namely the non-effect of the “Debt”/GDP ratio on GDP growth in America.
A comparison of GDP growth (red) vs. “debt”/GDP (blue). There is no evidence that high “debt/GDP levels adversely affect GDP growth.
In America at least, no evidence points to the assumption that a high “debt”/GDP ratio negatively affects GDP growth. It’s just a belief unfounded in data.

At the end of the second quarter of 2021, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 125%.3 That’s much higher than the tipping point and is a concern for many.

“Much higher than the (fake) tipping point and a concern for many (unsupported by data).

Over $22 trillion of that national debt is public debt, which is what the government owes to investors and taxpayers.

“Owed to investors” are the dollars deposited into T-security accounts, which the government could pay off tomorrow simply by returning those dollars. “Owed to taxpayers” are tax overpayments, which the government could pay off tomorrow simply by creating dollars ad hoc.

Congress places a limit on public debt. It increased the limit by $2.5 trillion in December 2021 to nearly $31.4 million.

Why isn’t the U.S. eliminating its debt and paying people back? There are a few reasons.

U.S. economic growth has historically outpaced its debt. The U.S. debt was $258.68 billion in August 1945, but the economy outgrew that in a few years. GDP more than doubled by 1960. Congress believes that today’s debt will be dwarfed by tomorrow’s economic growth.

As always, remember that federal “debt” is the total of deposits into T-security accounts. Whether economic growth is greater or less than deposit growth says nothing about the economy’s health. The federal government has the right to stop accepting deposits. This would not injure economic health.

Members of Congress have a lot to lose by cutting spending. They could lose their next election if they cut Social Security or Medicare benefits.

Yes, they could, and well deservedly so. Also, tarred and feathered might be appropriate because it would be an unnecessary penalty for the non-rich.

Raising taxes can be politically unpopular. Experts believe President George H.W. Bush lost reelection because he raised taxes after promising he wouldn’t at the 1988 Republican convention.

He raised taxes in 1990 to reduce the deficit, and voters remembered.

He lost because he broke his promise. But he should have lost because the federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars. As described earlier, federal tax dollars (unlike state/local tax dollars) are destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury. Bush unnecessarily impoverished the private sector (aka “the economy”). He deserved to lose his job.

There are two main themes in most discussions about paying off the national debt: cutting spending and raising taxes.

There are other options that might not enter most conversations but can aid in debt reduction, too.

The 2010 bipartisan Simpson-Bowles report is a good example of how the government could cut spending to reduce debt.

The report proposed balancing the budget through a mix of spending cuts and tax reform.

Congress didn’t adopt the complete plan, but the government did implement parts of it with some success. Note A 2015 report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget indicated that although a piecemeal approach reduced debt, full-fledged adoption of the Simpson-Bowles plan may have produced a significantly lower debt-to-GDP ratio.

It also would have produced a depression, which we have discussed here: Hoover, Smoot and Hawley reincarnated as Obama, Bowles and Simpson and here: Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson reveal why the nation is in trouble: Them. Very simply, Simpson-Bowles suggested cutting Social Security and Medicare while increasing FICA in order to impoverish the working class at the behest of the rich. And for what purpose? To reduce the so-called “debt” which as we repeatedly have seen has no adverse effects on the economy. None. (The real purpose is to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest. Enriching the rich is what the bribed economists, media, and politicians are paid to do.)

Raising taxes can generate revenue that the government can use to pay down debt as well as invest in programs that support the economy.

But it can cut into tax revenue and hurt the economy if the government raises taxes too high.

Finding the correct balance is expressed by a concept known as the “Laffer Curve.”

Wrong on so many fronts. First, the government does not use taxes to pay down “debt,” i.e. deposits in T-security accounts. It merely returns the dollars already exisiting in those accounts. Second, federal tax revenue is destroyed upon receipt. Third, the Laffer Curve is a case of BBB (Bullsh*t baffles brains). You can click the above link to understand why, but it is telling that the author, Kimberly Amadeo, mentions this discredited hypothesis. It’s especially telling that she thinks the Laffer Curve finds “the correct balance,” which it absolutely does not do.

Increasing the GDP has a twofold benefit: It generates extra revenue to pay down debt, and it reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio if GDP growth outpaces debt growth.

Federal revenue does not pay down anything. All federal revenue is destroyed. All payments are made with newly created dollars. The debt-to-GDP ratio is meaningless.

Driving economic growth is one way to reduce the national debt, but Congress tends to disagree on how to create that growth.

Most Democrats push increased spending, while most Republicans champion lower taxes.

Both are correct. Increased spending adds more growth dollars to the economy. Lower taxes remove fewer growth dollars from the economy.

However, unlimited growth is an unrealistic goal, so growth alone can’t solve the federal debt.

Spending Congress could shift spending from defense to job-creation areas like infrastructure and education. Almost 15% of government spending goes to the military. But past studies indicate that money spent on the military is less effective in creating jobs than money spent in other areas.

According to a report from the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, $1 billion in education and mass transit spending could produce more than twice the jobs created by military spending.

Job creation can help boost the GDP, which can help lower the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio in many cases.

Job creation does not rely on reduced military spending. The federal government has the infinite ability to spend.

What is the U.S. debt limit? The debt ceiling is the limit on what the U.S. government can borrow to pay bills that have come due. Congress puts this limit in place each year.

The debt limit isn’t about future debt. Instead, it’s about paying for spending that Congress authorized in previous years. If Congress does not raise the federal debt as needed, then the U.S. government cannot pay its bills and will default.

The final paragraph further demonstrates the ridiculousness of the “debt ceiling.” Either it will be raised or it won’t. If it’s raised, that merely proves it’s a sham. If it isn’t raised, the U.S. will become a deadbeat nation and the world’s financial systems will fall into chaos. Given that those are its only two possible outcomes, which fool would like it to continue? Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY