Those who do not understand (or who pretend not to understand) economics, repeatedly confuse federal finances with personal finances.
Those people decry the size of the federal deficits and debt as being “unsustainable,” which these measures would be if they were personal deficits and debt.
The federal government, being uniquely Monetarily Sovereign, never can run short of its sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar, so the government can “sustain” any size deficit and debt.
Gross Domestic Product is a common measure of the economy
Federal deficit spending adds dollars to the economy.
Economic growth, by formula, requires growing dollar supplies:
GDP = Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending + Net Exports
If the deficit critics were correct, you would expect to see:
1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807.
1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.
1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.
The following graph compares the annual federal debt percentage changes (red line) which reflect deficits, vs. GDP percentage changes (blue line). The vertical bars are recessions.
What you do see is:
Reduced debt growth leads to recessions
Increased debt growth cures recessions
Increased debt growth leads to increased GDP growth
For clarity, let’s examine individual segments of the above graph:
Prior to 1974, federal deficits rose then fell, pulling GDP along with them. This reduced deficit spending precipitated the recession of 1974, which was cured by increased deficit growth through 1976.
The increased deficit growth precipitated increased GDP growth, with momentum carrying GDP through 1979, when it too began to fall.
As a result of the long period of falling deficit growth, even the short upturn in the last quarter of 1979 could not save the economy, and the falling momentum of GDP resulted in the recession of 1980.
The increased deficit growth cured the recession, which ended in the 3rd quarter of 1980, when GDP turned up, and continued to be pulled up by more deficit growth.
And there again, the familiar pattern: Reduced deficit growth forcing down GDP growth, and even a short period of deficit growth increase cannot forestall the recession of 1990-1991.
And again, increased deficit growth cures the recession and turns GDP growth upward.
First, deficit growth pulls us out of a recession and forces GDP growth upward.
Then, deficit growth tops out, but momentum carries GPD growth along for several years.
Finally, GDP momentum yields to decreased deficit growth. (This time, we actually ran a federal surplus, which normally would cause a full-fledged depression. However, we were “fortunate,” and “only” suffered the recession of 2001.
Then, as always, it took increased federal deficit spending to pull us out of the recession in 2002.
And here we go again: Massive deficit spending pulls us out of a recession; after escaping that disaster we begin again to cut deficit growth, then (in mid-2007) we increase deficit growth; but it’s too late, and we enter yet another recession; this one is the “Great Recession” of 2008.
Now here we are, today. Huge deficit growth, having cured the recession, we continue not only those big deficits, but even grow them, first at 30% annually, finally leveling off at about 5% annual deficit growth — a big number, considering the size of the deficit.
This has caused GDP to average a robust average of about 4% annual growth.
Despite all the incontrovertible data, the next time you open your newspaper, or watch you local federal finance TV “expert,” you will be told that the federal debt and/or deficit are (oh, horrors) at record highs, and are “unsustainable,” or a “ticking time bomb.”
It’s no coincidence that GDP is at record highs, too. Federal deficit spending lifted it there.
Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.
Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps: