The single most misunderstood and misused word in economics

The word is “debt.”

Virtually everyone believes they know what it means—I assume you do—but virtually everyone, including economists, is confused by the term.

Here is a dictionary definition:

Debt is an obligation that requires one party, the debtor, to pay money or otherwise withheld from another party, the creditor. Debt may be owed by a sovereign state , country, local government, company, or individual.

Loans, bonds, notes, and mortgages are all types of debt.

Here is what an AI (Artificial Intelligence) says about federal debt. Read it, keeping in mind that the Monetarily Sovereign U.S. government has the infinite ability to create its own sovereign currency.

As we will discuss, the so-called federal debt isn’t debt and it isn’t federal.

The U.S. government never, unintentionally, can run short of U.S. dollars:

The federal debt of the United States is the total national debt owed by the federal government to Treasury security holders. 

It encompasses the accumulated borrowing and the associated interest owed to investors who purchased these securities.

Federal debt is the same as national debt?? Immediately we arrive at confusion because “national” debt can include the debt of the non-federal (private) sector, i.e., the total of mortgages, car loans, business loans, etc., and state/county/city debt. 

Because the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign and the other entities are monetarily non-sovereign, one rightly should assume that federal debt should be treated differently. 

Let’s break it down further:

    1. Federal Deficits:

      • Federal deficits occur when the government spends more money than it collects in revenue during a fiscal year. To cover these deficits, the government borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds, bills, and other securities.
      • These deficits contribute to the overall national debt because they represent the accumulated borrowing over time.
    2. Treasury Securities:

      • Treasury securities are financial instruments issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to raise funds for government operations.
      • There are several types of Treasury securities:
        • Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), Floating rate notes (FRN)
      • These securities are issued to the public and other entities, including individuals, corporations, state or local governments, foreign governments, and other non-federal entities.
    3. Federal Debt Held by the Public:

      • The federal debt held by the public consists of securities held outside the government. It includes:
        • Interest-bearing marketable securities: These are marketable Treasury securities (bills, notes, bonds, TIPS, and FRN) held by various entities.
        • Interest-bearing nonmarketable securities: These include Government Account Series held by fiduciary and certain deposit funds, foreign series, state and local government series, domestic series, and savings bonds.
        • Non-interest-bearing marketable and nonmarketable securities: These include matured and other types of securities.
      • The total federal debt held by the public is calculated based on face value less net unamortized premiums and discounts, including accrued interest.

The federal debt represents the total outstanding obligations owed by the U.S. government, including both deficits and the issuance of Treasury securities. It reflects the financial position of the government and its ability to meet its obligations

That is generally what most people believe. It is wrong on several counts.

First, the federal debt does not “reflect the financial position of the government and its ability to meet its obligations.  The federal government has the infinite ability to meet its obligations. 

Deficit reductions (red line) result in recessions (vertical gray bars), which are cured by deficit increases.
Even the COVID recession of 2020 was cured by the increase in federal spending — the so-called “debt” — that year.

Read it again while again keeping in mind the Monetarily Sovereign U.S. government has the infinite ability to create its own sovereign currency. It never, unintentionally, can run short of U.S. dollars.

Now ask yourself: Why would the federal government borrow dollars? The answer: It doesn’t. 

Notice the definitions of federal debt encompass two completely different things:

  1. The total of federal deficits, i.e. the net total difference between what the government has spent and what it has received in taxes.
  2. The total of Treasury Security accounts.

1. Total Federal of Deficits: In most years, the federal government spends more than it receives in taxes. This is called a “deficit.” Over the years these deficits total to what is called the “federal debt.”

All forms of debt require at least one debtor and at least one creditor. But with regard to federal deficits, who is the debtor and who is the creditor, and what is owed?

A quick response might be that the government is the debtor, and those supplying the government with goods and services would be the creditors. But that quick response would be wrong.

Although the federal “debt” is upwards of $30 trillion, the federal government does not owe its suppliers $30 trillion. They all have been paid.

Clearly, the total of deficits is not federal debt. There are no creditors, no debtor, and nothing is owed.

2. The Total of Treasury Security Accounts: Are they “federal debt”? If so, how and why did the “debt” occur. 

Look back at the definitions: The Treasury Securities are bills, notes, and bonds, issued by the federal government to raise funds for government operations.

A “bill” is a request for payment of money owed, or the piece of paper on which it is written. In the private sector, a bill is created by a creditor and sent to a debtor as a demand for payment. The way most people understand it.

But federal terminology is diametrically different. Here, the “debtor” (the government) creates and issues the T-bill and the creditor buys it, as though it were a bond. 

Consider a dollar bill. It is not a request for payment by a creditor, but rather a document created by the debtor — the federal government, which owes the holder one dollar. The dollar bill itself is not the dollar. It is an IOU for a dollar.

The dollar is just a number in the federal government’s financial books.

You cannot see, feel, smell, or taste a dollar. It has no form or substance. If someone asked you what does the number “five” look like would your answer be: “5,” or “V,” or “(2+3);” or the binary “101,” or “√25.”

Although you can describe a five dollar bill, you cannot say what five dollars look like. Dollars result from laws, and again, no one can say what a law looks like. Like dollars, laws are just concepts, not physical entities.

That fact that dollars are not physical gives the federal government the infinite ability to create them just by pressing computer keys.

But that’s a minor, though confusing, semantic issue. The major, and even more confusing, semantic question: Why does a Monetarily Sovereign entity, having the infinite ability to create dollars, ever borrow dollars?

As two former Chairmen of the Federal Reserve have said:

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Question: If the U.S. government cannot become insolvent, can create as much money as it wants, and can pay any debt, why does it borrow dollars? Why does it pay interest when it can produce as many dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost?

Answer: It doesn’t borrow, and the interest is produced at no cost.

Because of words like “bill,” “note.” and “bond,” many people, including even economists, believe these represent federal borrowing and debt.

They do not. The federal government never borrows dollars. It creates all the dollars it needs by spending dollars. Spending is how the government creates new dollars. The process is:

When an agency of the federal government pays an invoice (a bill) from a creditor, it sends instructions (not dollars) to the creditor’s bank. The instructions may be in the form of a check or a wire (“Pay to the order of ____”)

The bank obeys the instructions by increasing the balance in the creditor’s checking account. At that instant, new dollars are created and added to the M2 money supply measure.

The bank balances its books by informing the Federal Reserve of the instructions, which debits the government’s account. 

At no time are any physical dollars exchanged because there are no physical dollars. It’s all numbers in bookkeeping accounts.

But what is the purpose of those T-security accounts? They have two purposes, neither of which is to provide spending money for the government:

A. To provide a safe place to store unused dollars, which stabilizes the dollar. Because dollars have no physical existence, they can’t be stored in a box and watched. So, it is especially important that large, unused sums be kept on trusted books

No books are more trusted with dollars than the U.S. government’s.

B. To help the Fed control interest rates. Because T-securities are known to be safe, the interest paid by federal storage sets a floor for all private sector interest rates. 

T-security accounts resemble bank safe deposit boxes in that the contents are not owed to the depositors and not used by the bank. They are not federal in that the contents of the accounts are wholly owned by the depostors. The federal government never touches those dollars.

Just as they are not debts, they also are not federal. To close an account, the bank and the government simply return the contents to their owners, the depositors. The government does not owe the money because it never takes ownership of the money.

Why then, does the federal government need to lend rather than give money (for instance, student loans) or need to collect taxes.

It doesn’t. 

The federal government could forgive all student loans and continue spending forever, all without collecting a single penny in taxes. It could accomplish this simply by creating dollars.

Some claim that “excessive” federal deficit spending would cause inflation. That claim is false; the reasons are described here. While a government response to inflation may be to print currency, the cause of all inflations has been shortages of critical goods and services.

The most recent inflation was caused not by federal spending, which had been go on for  many years, but by new, COVID-relaed shortages of oil, food, computer chips, lumber, paper, shipping, steel, and many other products, and labor.

While state/local taxes and borrowing help monetarily non-sovereign government pay for things, the purpose of federal taxes is not to pay for things but rather:

  1. To control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.
  2. To support demand for the U.S. dollar by requiring taxes be paid in dollars.

But the biggest, unofficial reason for taxes is to support the myth that federal debt is paid by taxes, and that taxes are necessary to fund spending. It’s a myth promulgated by the people who really run America, the rich.

They are rich because of the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest. The wider the Gap, the richer they are.

The debt/taxation myth limits the federal spending that supports the middle- and the lower-income groups, but allows for the federal tax breaks that are given to the rich. Contrary to popular belief, federal taxation widens the Gap between the rich and the rest, making the rich richer.

Without the debt/taxation myth we could fund free, comprehensive, no-deductible Medicare for every man, woman, and child in America, no-FICA Social Security for everyone, an end to poverty in America, free college for everyone who wants it, and many other benefits (free public transportation, housing support, local infrastructure improvements, lower local taxes, etc.) all of which are of no interest to the rich.

Donald Trump didn’t pay less taxes than you paid the past ten years, not just because he cheated, but also because, being rich, he took advantage of the tax breaks that you can’t.

Tax breaks are financially the same to the federal government as such benefits as Social Security and Medicare, the difference being there is no financial limit put on tax breaks while the benefits are limited by tax collections.

SUMMARY

Unlike state/local governments, businesses, you and me, the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It cannot unintentionally run short of dollars. It can pay any financial obligation immediately. 

The federal government and its taxpayers are not burdened by federal debt. The federal government does not borrow dollars. It creates dollars ad hoc, by spending.

People have complained about the fictional “federal debt” since 1940, calling it a “ticking time bomb.” yet after all these years the ticking time bomb hasn’t exploded. In that time, the “federal debt” rose from $40 billion to $30 trillion, the economy is healthy, the government is paying its bills, and all the scare stories have proved to be false.

The federal debt, whether it be the total of deficits or the total of T-securities, neither is federal nor debt. It is not a burden on taxpayers nor on the federal government. It doesn’t cause inflation or recession.

Deficit spending is necessary to grow the economy and attempts to reduce deficit spending have caused causes recessions and depressions.

Accepting deposits into T-bill, note, and bond accounts does not constitute borrowing or debt, for a Monetarily Sovereign entity never borrows its own sovereign currency. 

It’s not debt if there is nothing owed, nothing borrowed, no creditors, no debtors, an no payment burden.

 

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

They feed you garbage to improve your health.

Is this article about the meaningless Debt/GDP ratio ignorance or malevolence?

I suspect it’s not ignorance. These people should know better. But they keep writing this nonsense. Why?

Bhargavi Sakthivel

I have my suspicions, which I’ll voice later, but first, here are some excerpts from a frightening example.”

A million simulations, one verdict for economy: Debt danger ahead Bhargavi Sakthivel,  Maeva Cousin, and David Wilcox, Bloomberg News 

In its latest projections, the Congressional Budget Office warned that U.S. federal government debt will increase from 97% of GDP last year to 116% by 2034—higher than in World War II. The actual outlook is likely worse.

“Worse”? Why is an increase in the so-called “federal debt” (that isn’t federal and isn’t debt) bad? When you read the article, you’ll find that they never say. They just assume it.

Rosy assumptions underpin the CBO forecasts released earlier this year, covering everything from tax revenue to defense spending and interest rates. When you factor in the market’s current view on interest rates, the debt-to-GDP ratio rises to 123% in 2034.

Then assume — as most in Washington do — that ex-President Donald Trump’s tax cuts mainly stay in place, increasing the burden.

What “burden”? And on whom is the “burden”? Here are seven reasons why the so-called “federal debt” isn’t federal, isn’t debt, and isn’t a burden on anyone.

1. The federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the infinite ability to pay its bills. Even if the government owed the “federal debt,” it instantly could create the dollars to pay it off.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

Quote from former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when he was on 60 Minutes:
Scott Pelley: “Is that tax money the Fed is spending?”
Ben Bernanke: “It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.”

2. The so-called “federal” debt isn’t federal. It is the total of deposits into Treasury Security accounts, the contents of which are wholly owned by the depositors.

The federal government doesn’t use those deposits for spending. They sit in the account, earning interest, until maturity, when the government transfers them to the owners’ checking accounts.

Because the government doesn’t take ownership of the dollars, the government doesn’t owe the dollars.

These accounts resemble bank safe deposit boxes where the contents are not bank debt. They are merely held for safekeeping. Thus, as with safe deposit boxes, the contents of T-security accounts are neither federal nor debt.

Even if the “debt” (deposits) were trillions of dollars, that would mean trillions were sitting in Treasury Security accounts, waiting to be returned, which could be accomplished by the touch of a computer key.

3. The debt does not burden the government (it has the infinite ability to pay) or taxpayers (who are never asked to pay for those deposits).

4. The deposits have nothing to do with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a federal plus non-federal spending measure. Even if the “Debt”/GDP  ratio were 100, 1000, or 10,000, this would have nothing to do with the government’s ability to return the dollars in T-Security accounts.

If you go to the Debt/GDP ratio by country, you will see a long list of nations and their Debt/GDP ratios. Examine those ratios; you cannot tell anything about the nations’ finances.

The ratio says nothing about a nation’s ability to pay what it owes, its economic safety, or its money. It tells you nothing about the past, the present, or the future. It is a classic Apples/Audis comparison, signifying nothing.

Sadly, even that country comparison website falsely states, “(The ratio) typically determines the stability and health of a nation’s economy and offers an at-a-glance estimate of a country’s ability to pay back its current debts.”

Wrong. The ratio does neither of those things.

For a Monetarily Sovereign nation like the U.S., UK, Canada, China, Japan, et al., the ratio says nothing about the stability and health of a nation’s economy or its ability to pay its current debt. Whether federal “Debt” (that isn’t debt) grows faster or slower than GDP means nothing.

With uncertainty about so many variables, Bloomberg Economics has run a million simulations to assess the fragility of the debt outlook. In 88% of the simulations, the results show the debt-to-GDP ratio is unsustainable — defined as an increase over the next decade.

A normal human being would define “unsustainable” as something that cannot be continued. Apparently, Bloomberg describes it as an increase.

“Unsustainable” is a favorite word for “debt” fear-mongers because it absolves them of the requirement to explain what cannot be sustained.

The U.S. federal debt has increased from about $40 billion in 1940 to about $30 trillion this year (an astounding 75,000% increase), and fear-mongers have told you it’s a “ticking time bomb.”

It has been ticking for 84 years, and still no problems. The prognosticators seem not to learn from failure.

The Biden administration says its budget, which includes a series of tax hikes on corporations and wealthy Americans, will ensure fiscal sustainability and manageable debt-servicing costs.

Our Monetarily Sovereign government has infinite fiscal sustainability and can manage any debt-serving costs. In fact, the more interest the federal government pays, the more GDP increases.

GDP=Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports.

Economic growth benefits from federal interest payments.

“I believe we need to reduce deficits and stay on a fiscally sustainable path,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers in February. Biden administration proposals offer “substantial deficit reduction that would continue to hold interest expense at comfortable levels.

But we would need to work together to achieve those savings,” she said.

I do not know why Janet Yellen would promulgate such ignorance or lies. The U.S. has infinite fiscal sustainability and can comfortably pay any interest.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent concerning obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

The trouble is that delivering such a plan will require action from a Congress that’s bitterly divided on partisan lines.

Republicans, who control the House, want deep spending cuts to bring down the ballooning deficit without specifying precisely what they’d slash.

Democrats, who oversee the Senate, argue that spending contributes less to debt sustainability deterioration, with interest rates and tax revenues being the key factors.

To paraphrase the old saying, “There are lies, damned lies, and claims about the federal debt.”

Here is what deep spending cuts accomplish:

 U.S. depressions to come on the heels of federal surpluses.
1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began in 1807.
1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began in 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began in 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began in 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began in 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began in 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began in 1929.
1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

Here is what deficit cuts accomplish:

When deficits (red line) decline, we have recessions (vertical gray bars), which are cured by increased federal deficit spending.

Federal surpluses take dollars from the economy. Federal deficits add dollars to the economy. You can review the formula for GDP to see why the above effects occur.

Neither party favors squeezing the benefits provided by significant entitlement programs.

The public understands that federal spending helps the economy. One wonders why the “experts” don’t.

Ultimately, it may take a crisis — perhaps a disorderly rout in the Treasuries market triggered by sovereign U.S. credit-rating downgrades or a panic over the depletion of the Medicare or Social Security trust funds — to force action.

That’s playing with fire.

The credit-rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit, not because of high debt but because Congress threatened not to pay its bills with that ridiculous, useless “debt ceiling.”

Congress always has the ability to pay its bills by creating dollars ad hoc. However, credit ratings will fall unnecessarily when Congress threatens creditors due to ignorance or political malevolence.

Last summer provided a miniature foretaste of how a crisis might begin. Over two days in August, a Fitch Ratings downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and an increase of long-term Treasury debt issuance focused investor attention on the risks.

Benchmark 10-year yields climbed by a percentage point, hitting 5% in October — the highest level in over a decade.

The federal government had no trouble pressing those computer keys that paid the interest.

Further, the government didn’t need to pay higher interest; it set the bottom interest rate, and if there was no threat to paying, that will be the rate.

For years following the “Great Recession of 2008, federal deficits increased massively, and interest rates stayed near zero. The government and Federal Reserve have the tools to control spending and interest rates.

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to control inflation, not to help the government pay interest.

Shaking investor confidence in U.S. Treasury debt as the ultimate safe asset would take a lot.

If it evaporated, though, the erosion of the dollar’s standing would be a watershed moment, with the U.S. losing access to cheap financing and global power and prestige.

Yes, “it would take a lot” — a lot more than deficit spending, which, though massive, has not caused the “unsustainability” that the Henny Pennys fret about.

By law, the CBO is compelled to rely on existing legislation. That means it assumes the 2017 Trump tax cuts will expire in 2025. However, even President Joe Biden wants some of them extended.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, permanently extending the legislation’s revenue provisions would cost about 1.2% of GDP each year starting in the late 2020s.

Hmmm.  Extending tax cuts (which allows the private sector to spend more money) would cost 1.2% of GDP each year—strange mathematics.

The CBO also must assume that discretionary spending, which Congress sets each year, will increase with inflation rather than keep pace with GDP.

What?? Discretionary spending will increase with inflation but not keep pace with GDP. If I read that correctly, the author warns that GDP will grow faster than inflation. And that’s a bad thing??

Market participants aren’t buying the benign rates outlook, with forward markets pointing to borrowing costs markedly higher than the CBO assumes.

Borrowing costs are determined by the Fed, which (wrongly) believes raising interest rates (which increases the prices of everything you buy) is a good way to fight inflation! If you can figure that one out, let me know. I can’t.

Bloomberg Economics has built a forecast model using market pricing for future interest rates and data on the maturity profile of bonds. Keeping all the CBO’s other assumptions in place shows debt equaling 123% of GDP for 2034.

Which is meaningless.

Debt at that level would mean servicing costs reach close to 5.4% of GDP — more than 1.5 times as much as the federal government spent on national defense in 2023, comparable to the entire Social Security budget.

All it means is that our Monetarily Sovereign government will create more growth dollars and add them to GDP. Is that supposed to be a problem? Mathematically, increases in federal spending increase economic growth.

Heavyweights from across the political spectrum agree the long-term outlook is unsettling.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this year that it was “probably time—or past time” for politicians to start addressing the “unsustainable” path of borrowing.

The federal government does not borrow. T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds do not represent borrowing. They represent deposits into Treasury Security accounts — money the federal government neither needs nor touches.

The purpose of those accounts is not to provide spending money to a Monetarily Sovereign government but to provide a safe place to store unused dollars. This stabilizes the dollar.

Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said in January that the nation is in a “terrible place” regarding deficits.

From the realm of finance, Citadel founder Ken Griffin told investors in a letter to the hedge fund’s investors Monday that the U.S. national debt is a “growing concern that cannot be overlooked.”

Days earlier, BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said the U.S. public debt situation “is more urgent than I can ever remember.”

Ex-IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff says while an exact “upper limit” for debt is unknowable, challenges will arise as the level keeps going up.

Rogoff’s broader point is well taken: forecasts are uncertain. To mitigate this uncertainty, Bloomberg Economics has run a million simulations on the CBO’s baseline view—an approach economists call stochastic debt sustainability analysis.

Ooooh! “Stochastic sustainability analysis.” And they did it a million times. How many of those times included the fact that the Monetarily Sovereign U.S. government never can run short of dollars to pay its bills and interest? Not yesterday, not today, not tomorrow, not ever?

“stochastic” means: “Having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.”

Each simulation forecasts the debt-to-GDP ratio with a different combination of GDP growth, inflation, budget deficits, and interest rates, with variations based on patterns seen in the historical data.

In the worst 5% of outcomes, the debt-to-GDP ratio ends in 2034 above 139%, which means the U.S. would have a higher debt ratio in 2034 than crisis-prone Italy did last year.

But the ratio means nothing. It tells you nothing about “sustainability.”

More importantly, the proof of abject ignorance comes with those last few words: “crisis-prone Italy.”

OMG. They are too ignorant to understand the differences between a Monetarily Sovereign entity and a monetarily non-sovereign entity.

Italy is monetarily non-sovereign. It can run short of euros. The U.S. is Monetarily Sovereign. It cannot run short of dollars (unless Congress continues with the foolish debt-limit nonsense.)

It’s like claiming that birds can’t fly because elephants can’t fly.

The Treasury chief herself acknowledged in a Feb. 8 hearing that “in an extreme case,” there could be a possibility of borrowing reaching levels that buyers wouldn’t be willing to purchase everything the government sought to sell. She added that she saw no signs of that now.

I assume she’s talking about buyers of T-securities. Surely she knows that:

  1. The federal government doesn’t need to sell T-securities. They don’t provide the government, as a dollar creator, with anything. They provide dollar users with safe storage.
  2. If the government had a yen to sell more T-securities, it could always raise interest rates.

Getting to a sustainable path will require action from Congress. Precedent isn’t promising. Disagreements over government spending came to a head last summer when a standoff over the debt ceiling brought the U.S. to the brink of default.

The deal to halt the havoc suspended the debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025, postponing another clash over borrowing until after the presidential election.

This is what ignorance causes. It is an unnecessary battle over a meaningless number to reach a fruitless conclusion. And these are the geniuses we elect to Congress.

It’s hard to imagine a U.S. debt crisis. The dollar remains the global reserve currency. The annual and unseemly spectacle of government shutdown brinksmanship typically leaves barely a ripple on the Treasury market.

A fictional “debt crisis” (the U.S. federal government unable to create dollars?) has nothing to do with the dollar being the leading “reserve currency.” A reserve currency is just money banks keep in reserve to facilitate international trade.

Though the U.S. dollar is a leader, other currencies are reserve currencies, depending on geography: The euro, the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, China, Japan, Australia, etc. all produce currencies that banks keep in reserve.

There is no magic in being a reserve currency. And it does nothing to prevent a “debt crisis.

Still, the world is changing. China and other emerging markets are eroding the dollar’s role in trade invoicing, cross-border financing, and foreign exchange reserves.

This has nothing to do with any “debt crisis” or the Debt/GDP ratio.

Foreign buyers make up a steadily shrinking share of the U.S. Treasuries market, testing domestic buyers’ appetite for ever-increasing volumes of federal debt.

It’s not federal; it’s not debt, and it’s not a problem.

And while demand for those securities has lately been supported by expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates, that dynamic won’t always be in play.

The federal government doesn’t need to issue T-securities. It creates all its dollars by spending them. The spending comes first, and then it creates dollars.

Herbert Stein, head of the Council of Economic Advisers in the 1970s, observed that “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” If the U.S. doesn’t get its fiscal house in order, a future U.S. president will confirm the truth of that maxim. And if confidence in the world’s safest asset evaporates, everyone will suffer the consequences.

Given that the U.S. government has the infinite ability to create dollars, the endless ability to pay interest, the limitless ability to control interest rates paid by Treasuries, and the infinite ability to pay for anything, anytime, that sounds like the fiscal house is in good order.

Because the debt-GDP ratio is meaningless, the following paragraphs are purely for entertainment purposes and should not be taken seriously.

I have bolded the more humorous parts:

Methodology
Bloomberg Economics uses the latest long-term CBO projections’ baseline fiscal and economic outlook—including the effective interest rate, primary budget balance as a percent of GDP, inflation as measured by the GDP deflator, and real GDP growth rate—as a starting point for the analysis.
To calculate the debt-to-GDP ratio using market forecasts for rates, we substitute forward rates as of March 25, 2024, and project future effective rates on federal debt based on a detailed bond-by-bond analysis.
To forecast the distribution of probabilities around the CBO’s baseline debt-to-GDP view, we conduct a stochastic debt-sustainability analysis:
—We estimate a VAR model of short- and long-term interest rates, primary balance-to-GDP ratio, real GDP growth rate, and GDP deflator growth using annual data from 1990 to 2023. The covariance matrix of the estimated residuals is then used to draw one million sequences of shocks.
—We use data on the maturities of individual bonds to map short- and long-term interest-rate shocks to the effective interest rate paid on U.S. federal debt.
—Using this model, Bloomberg Economics considers two definitions of sustainability. First, we check if the debt-to-GDP ratio increases from 2024 to 2034. Second, we examine if the average inflation-adjusted interest expense, scaled by nominal GDP, over the ten years from 2025-2034 is less than 2%.———
(With assistance from Jamie Rush, Phil Kuntz, and Viktoria Dendrinou.)

Jamie, Phil, and Viktoria have invented two definitions of “sustainability.” One is debt/GDP increases, which have been going on for over 80 years and have caused nothing. The other is interest expense, which the government has the endless ability to pay, is controlled by the Fed, and adds to GDP growth.

Apparently, Jamie, Phil, and Viktoria don’t know we’ve passed those road signs, but we are still sustaining.

Folks, you have been fed a steady, 80+ years diet of garbage, the purpose being to convince you the government can’t afford to give you benefits. The rich know better, so they get all the tax benefits.

The media are bribed to feed you garbage by advertising dollars and ownership.

The economists are bribed via contributions to schools and promises of lucrative employment in think tanks.

The politicians are bribed by campaign contributions and employment after they leave office.

Sadly, the public eats the garbage, so the people struggle while the rich laugh. Ignorance is costly.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People..

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

How can someone understand, but not understand, the same issue?

See related image detail. Opinion: College Rip-Off – John Stossel | Prescott eNews
John Stossel

John Stossel puzzles me. When you first conclude he knows nothing about economics, he writes something spot-on. Then he follows up with ignorance about the same subject.

In that, he reminds of Paul Krugman, who alternately understands, then doesn’t understand, Monetary Sovereignty.

Stossel can do it in two sentences. Here is an article on Reason.com, the Libertarian version of QAnon. Look at the subhead.

Worry About Budget Deficits, Not Trade Deficits
Next year’s $1 trillion federal government budget deficit will bankrupt us. Trade deficits are trivial.

“Federal government’s budget deficit will bankrupt us.” 

Suddenly, the U.S. government will go bankrupt? After world wars, numerous recessions and depressions, now, when the economy is growing rapidly, the federal government is going bankrupt??

The blue line is Gross Domestic Product. The red line is federal “debt.” There is no hint that federal “debt” is leading to bankruptcy. Quite the opposite. As “debt” grows, so does the economy.

.

The green line is real (allowing for inflation), per capita GDP. There still is no hint that increasing federal “debt” leads to bankruptcy. Again, quite the opposite.

If Stossel wants to bet that next year’s budget deficit will bankrupt the U.S. government, I will put up every dollar I own that says Stossel is wrong. One wonders why someone, anyone, would make such a foolish statement and expect belief.

Being Monetarily Sovereign, the U.S. government cannot run short of U.S. dollars. Increased federal deficit spending is necessary for economic growth. GDP=Federal Spending+Non-federal Spending+Net Exports

Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

I suspect Stossel knows he’s wrong, so I’m guessing he hasn’t moved to another country or exchanged all his U.S. dollars for another currency in advance of a mythical U.S. bankruptcy.

He’s just promulgating the usual Libertarian BS that has been wrong for at least 84+ years and will continue to be incorrect during his lifetime and beyond.

But wait. He also says, “Trade deficits are trivial.” In that, he is correct.

A trade deficit merely means we give other nations some of the plentiful U.S. dollars we create at the touch of a computer key, and in return, we receive valuable and scarce goods and services.

I run trade deficits with my local Costco and with my cleaning lady. I don’t feel bad about it, though I don’t even have the government’s infinite ability to create dollars.

The more money I have, the more stuff I can buy. The federal government has infinite money.

Maybe Donald Trump is such a powerful communicator and pot-stirrer that other countries, embarrassed by their own trade barriers, will eliminate them. Then, I will thank the president for the wonderful thing he did. Genuine free trade will be a recipe for wonderful economic growth.

But I fear the opposite: a trade war and stagnation—because much of what Trump and his followers say is economically absurd.

“What Trump and his followers say is economically absurd”? Who could have guessed that MAGAs know so little? Could it be possible that QAnon, Fox, Alex Jones, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump are not reliable sources?

“(If) you don’t have steel, you don’t have a country!” announced the president.

Lots of things are essential to America—and international trade is the best way to make sure we have them. When a storm blocks roads in the Midwest, we get supplies from Canada, Mexico, and China. Why add roadblocks?

Steel is important, but “the choice isn’t between producing 100 percent of our steel (and having a country) or producing no steel (and presumably losing our country),” writes Veronique De Rugy of the Mercatus Center.

Trump uses the “you don’t have a country” meme for everything. “If you don’t have a steel industry, you don’t have a country.” “If you don’t have a border, you don’t have a country.” “If you don’t have a wall, you don’t have a country.” “If you don’t have a military, you don’t have a country.” “If you don’t have a strong military, you don’t have a country.”

These are a few of his nonsense statements about the end of America. Ms de Rugy’s response was correct.

Today, most of the steel we use is made in America. Imports come from friendly places like Canada and Europe. Just 3 percent come from China.

Still, insists the president, “Nearly two-thirds of American raw steel companies have gone out of business!”

There’s been consolidation. But so, what? For 30 years, American steel production has stayed about the same. Profits rose from $714 million in 2016 to $2.8 billion last year. And the industry added nearly 8,000 jobs.

Trump loves to cherry-pick, twist, and outright lie about statistics to make his point. A day later, he’ll say the opposite. His followers will swoon at each new version despite its incompatibility with what Trump said yesterday.

Trump says, “Our factories were left to rot and to rust all over the place. Thriving communities turned into ghost towns. You guys know that, right?”

No. Few American communities became ghost towns. More boomed because of cheap imports.

It’s sad when a steelworker loses work, but for every steelworker, 40 Americans work in industries that use steel. They, and we, benefit from lower prices.

Right again, John. Wrong again, Donald.

Trump touts the handful of companies benefiting from his tariffs: “Century Aluminum in Kentucky—Century is a great company—will be investing over $100 million.”

Great. But now we’ll get a feeding frenzy of businesses competing to catch Trump’s ear. Century Aluminum got his attention. Your company better pay lobbyists. Countries, too.

After speaking to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia, Trump tweeted: “We don’t have to impose steel or aluminum tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia!”

So, the purpose of tariffs is . . . what? To punish our enemies? To reward our businesses? Or simply increase prices for the American consumer.

Economies thrive when there are clear rules that everyone understands. Now we’ve got “The Art of the Deal,” one company and country at a time.

I understand that Trump, the developer liked to make special deals, but when presidents do that, it’s crony capitalism—crapitalism. You get the deal if you know the right people. That’s what kept most of Africa and South America poor.

But Trump thinks trade itself makes us poorer: “We lose … on trade. Every year, $800 billion.”

Actually, last year’s trade deficit with China was $375 billion. But even if it were $800 billion, who cares? All a trade deficit shows is that a country sells us more than we sell them. We get the better of that deal. They get excess dollar bills, but we get stuff.

Right on, John. We have the infinite ability to create dollars by pressing computer keys. The U.S. government can send dollars into the economy whenever it wants to.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

But we don’t have the infinite ability to create stuff. So, trading dollars for stuff is a great deal for us.

Sadly, when the U.S. government does it, the Libertarians wrongly complain about federal deficits and debt. I wonder whether Stossel will hear about this from his Libertarian pals.

And now we come to the usual Libertarian BS:

Real problems are imbalances like next year’s $1 trillion federal government budget deficit. That will bankrupt us.

It hasn’t happened. It can’t happen. It won’t happen. It’s just that incredible fearmongering by people who know better and should stop now.

Trade deficits are trivial. You run one with your supermarket. Do you worry because you bought more from them than they buy from you? No. The free market sorts it out.

Trump makes commerce sound mysterious: “The action I’m taking today follows a nine-month investigation by the Department of Commerce, Secretary Ross.”

But Wilber Ross is a hustler who phoned Forbes Magazine to lie about how much money he has. Now he goes on TV and claims, “3 cents worth of tin plate steel in this can. So if it goes up 25 percent, that’s a tiny fraction of one penny. Not a noticeable thing.”

Not to him maybe, but Americans buy 2 billion cans of soup.

Political figures like Ross—and Trump—shouldn’t decide what we’re allowed to buy. If they understood markets, they’d know enough to stay out of the way.

Like so many of the people Trump hires, Ross was, shall we say, a questionable character, with many, many claims against his honesty.

The combination of Libertarianism and its attendant economic ignorance, together with economic dishonesty leads to bad (for America) decisions. Cut federal spending and we’ll have the bankruptcy Stossel and the Libertarians predict.

As for John Stossel, he still puzzles me.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Are you planning to vote for the end of Medicare and Social Security? These people are.

The Libertarians (also known as the Republican Party) want to cancel Medicare and Social Security under the guise of fiscal prudence and courage.

The right wing has created a fake “debt crisis” and then invented a non-solution that requires exactly what they deny they want: The end of Medicare and Social Security. (See: Congressional Republicans Want Big Cuts to Social Security)

Although Congress is accustomed to misleading statements and outright lies, nowhere are the lies piled deeper than the discussions of Medicare’s and Social Security’s impending “insolvency.”

Let’s get something straight. The US government, being Monetarily Sovereign, cannot become insolvent. It has the infinite ability to create U.S. dollars.

This means no agency of the U.S. government can become insolvent unless Congress and the President vote for insolvency.

Look at this list of federal departments and agencies that cannot run short of money unless Congress and the President vote for insolvency.

The list runs alphabetically from the U.S. AbilityOne Commission to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

There are 15 executive departments in the United States federal government, each of which is headed by a Cabinet member appointed by the President. The following is a list of the 15 executive departments:

Department of Agriculture
Department of Commerce
Department of Defense
Department of Education
Department of Energy
Department of Health and Human Services
Department of Homeland Security
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Department of the Interior
Department of Justice
Department of Labor
Department of State
Department of Transportation
Department of the Treasury
Department of Veterans Affairs

In addition to these departments, there are over 430 federal agencies in the United States, including 9 executive offices, 259 executive department sub-agencies and bureaus, 66 independent agencies, 42 boards, commissions, and committees, and 11 quasi-official agencies.

Not one of the departments, agencies, executive offices, sub-agencies, bureaus, boards, commissions, committees, and quasi-official agencies can or will run short of dollars unless that is what Congress and the President want.

Who says so? How about:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”
Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending?
Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Not many people realize that while state/local taxes pay for state/local spending, federal taxes pay for nothing.

Rather than funding federal spending, the sole purposes of federal taxes are:

  1. To control the economy by taxing what the federal government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the federal government wishes to reward,
  2. To assure demand for the U.S. dollar by requiring dollars to be used in paying taxes and
  3. To fool the public into believing some benefits are unsustainable unless taxes are raised, which reduces benefits.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

Anyone who claims a federal “debt crisis” is ignorant about, or lying about, federal finances. There is no federal debt crisis.

The Libertarians and their alter egos, the Republicans, are doing their best to provide you with false information. Here is a Libertarian article that could have been written by the Republicans:

Congress Is Trying To Avoid Taking Responsibility for the Debt Crisis It Created
A fiscal commission might be a good idea, but it’s also the ultimate expression of Congress’ irresponsibility.
ERIC BOEHM | 11.29.2023 2:30 PM

It’s inaccurate to say that no one in Congress wants to talk about the national debt and the federal government’s deteriorating fiscal condition.

How can the federal government, which as you’ve just read, has the infinite ability to create dollars, have a deteriorating fiscal condition”? It can’t.

It’s like claiming the world’s oceans have a deteriorating liquid condition, or the universe has a deteriorating atomic condition.

The lie about “deteriorating fiscal condition” forms the basis for the rest of the lies.

Indeed, during Wednesday morning’s meeting of the House Budget Committee, there was a lot of talk about exactly that.

“Runaway deficit-spending and our unsustainable national debt threatens not only our economy, but our national security, our way of life, our leadership in the world, and everything good about America’s influence,” said Rep. Jodey Arrington (R–Texas), the committee’s chairman.

Rep. Jodey Arrington either is stupendously ignorant or stupendously lying. The phrase “unsustainable national debt” consists of three words, all three of which are lies.

  1. “Unsustainable”: Interestingly, this word never is explained by those who use it incessantly. I suspect it means something like this: Federal finances are like personal finances. If your expenses are larger than your income, eventually, you won’t be able to pay your bills, so your debt will be “unsustainable.”The problem is that the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign while you are monetarily non-sovereign, which is totally different. You can run short of money. The federal government cannot.
  2. “National” This has to do with Treasury Securities, which indeed are national or federal. The federal government is the sole authority to issue T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds. However, the owner of those T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds is not the federal government. When someone or some nation buys a T-security, their dollars go into their T-security account. Those dollars remain the property of the buyer.They never are owned by the federal government. When the T-security reaches maturity, the dollars are returned to their owner. Think of a bank safe-deposit box. The bank never owns the contents. It holds them for safekeeping and returns the contents to the owner. The government’s storage of unused dollars for safekeeping, stabilizes the dollar.
  3. “Debt” relates to the mistaken claim that T-securities represent borrowing. But our Monetarily Sovereign government, with its infinite ability to create dollars, never borrows dollars. The only dollars the federal government ever owes are the dollars it uses to pay for things. Those dollars are paid in a timely fashion by a government that has the infinite ability to create dollars. There is no long-term buildup of federal “debt.”

He pointed to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections showing that America’s debt, as a share of the size of the nation’s economy, is now as large as it was at the end of the Second World War—and that interest payments on the debt will soon cost more than the entire military budget.

The above paragraph refers to the infamous and much-misunderstood Debt/GDP ratio. It is a meaningless ratio that tells nothing and predicts nothing about a Monetarily Sovereign nation’s finances.

A high or low ratio does not indicate solvency, growth, or any other financial factor. It is entirely useless.

The so-called “Debt” (that isn’t a real debt) is the net total of all T-securities purchased and still outstanding for the past 10 years. They are not a burden on the federal government, which merely returns the dollars it holds for the owners when the security matures.

By contrast, GDP is a one-year (or less) total of America’s (not just the federal government’s) spending. The formula for GDP is:

GDP = Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending + Net Exports

Comparing federal “Debt” to GDP is worse than comparing your 10-year income to the federal government’s spending this week: It is meaningless.

The sole purpose of this comparison is to fool you into believing the federal government is running short of the dollars it has the infinite ability to create.

What’s missing, however, is any sense that Congress is willing to turn those words into action. Just look at the premise of Wednesday’s hearing: “Examining the need for a fiscal commission.”

Yes, it was a meeting about possibly forming a committee to discuss perhaps doing something to address the problem. In fact, it was the second such committee hearing in front of the House Budget Committee within the past few weeks.

It seems like there ought to be a more direct way to address this. , say, if a committee already existed within Congress was charged with handling budgetary issues. A House Budget Committee, perhaps.

But instead of using Wednesday’s meeting to seek consensus on how to solve the federal government’s budgetary problems, lawmakers debated a series of bills that aim to let Congress offload that responsibility to a special commission.

Unlike you, me, local governments, and businesses, the federal government’s only true “budgetary problem” is to decide where it wishes to spend its infinite hoard of dollars.

While you et al. must worry about the availability of dollars, the federal government has no such constraints. It creates dollars by spending dollars.

This is the process:

  1. When the federal government buys something and receives an invoice, it sends to the seller’s bank instructions (not dollars), instructing the bank to increase the balance in the seller’s checking account.
  2. When the bank does as instructed, new dollars are created and added to the M2 money supply measure.
  3. The instructions then are approved by the Federal Reserve, an agency of the federal government.

In short, the federal government creates dollars by spending dollars, and this creation is approved by the Federal Reserve, an agency of the federal government.

The federal government creates the laws that approve its money-creation process. Being Monetarily Sovereign, the federal government can create any money-related laws it wishes, which is why no federal agency can run short of dollars unless the federal government wants it to run short.

Federal agencies are not supported by federal taxes; they are supported by federal money creation.

Medicare and Social Security can run short of dollars only if that is what Congress and the President want.

What that commission would look like and how its recommendations would be handled will depend on which proposal (if any of them) eventually becomes law—and even that seems somewhat unlikely, with Democrats voicing their opposition to the idea throughout Wednesday’s hearing.

To be fair, there are plenty of good arguments for why a fiscal commission might be the best way for Congress to fix the mess that it has made. It is an idea that’s certainly worthy of being considered, even if the whole exercise seems a little bit over-engineered.

All this blah, blah, blah is meant to disguise one simple fact: The rich, who run the U.S.  government, want to cut benefits for the middle and lower-income groups. Here is why:

  1. “Rich” is a comparative. A man owning a million dollars is rich if everyone else has a thousand dollars. But a man owning a million dollars is poor if everyone else has a hundred million dollars. During the Great Depression, anyone earning $20,000 a year was rich. Today, that salary would mark him as poor.
  2. To become richer requires widening the income/wealth/power Gap below you and narrowing the Gap above you.
  3. The rich always want to be richer, i.e.,  to widen the Gap below them.
  4. Because Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare, and all aid to the poor help narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest, the rich repeatedly try to eliminate all such benefits (while giving tax loopholes to the rich).
  5. Under the guise of fiscal responsibility, the right-wing makes unending efforts to cut the federal deficit spending that benefits those who are not rich (while continuing to run deficits that benefit the rich).

Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute, argues persuasively in her Substack that a fiscal commission is the best way to overcome the political hurdles that prevent Congress from taking meaningful action on borrowing and entitlement costs (which are driving a sizable portion of future deficits).

And there it is, the true purpose of a “fiscal commission” is to cut spending on so-called “entitlements” (i.e. Medicare and Social Security.)

All the lies about Social Security and Medicare “trust funds” running short of dollars are to make you compliant with the Republican effort to make you poorer and the rich, richer.

What you may not realize, these so called “trust funds” aren’t even trust funds. 

To quote from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation web site:

A federal trust fund is an accounting mechanism used by the federal government to track earmarked receipts (money designated for a specific purpose or program) and corresponding expenditures.

The largest and best-known trust funds finance Social Security, portions of Medicarehighways and mass transit, and pensions for government employees.

Federal trust funds bear little resemblance to their private-sector counterparts, and therefore the name can be misleading.

A “trust fund” implies a secure source of funding. However, a federal trust fund is simply an accounting mechanism used to track inflows and outflows for specific programs.

In private-sector trust funds, receipts are deposited and assets are held and invested by trustees on behalf of the stated beneficiaries.

In federal trust funds, the federal government does not set aside the receipts or invest them in private assets.

Rather, the receipts are recorded as accounting credits in the trust funds, and then combined with other receipts that the Treasury collects and spends.

Further, the federal government owns the accounts and can, by changing the law, unilaterally alter the purposes of the accounts and raise or lower collections and expenditures.

Thus, the federal government can do whatever it wishes with the “trust funds.” It can add to them, subtract from them, or change them from the wrongly presumed mission of supporting federal expenditures.

At the click of a computer key or the passage of a law, the balance in the federal “trust funds” could be changed to $100 trillion or $0, and neither would affect taxpayers.

Thus, the notion that any federal “trust funds” are, as the right wing claims, “in trouble,” is a lie, unless “trouble” comes from those who don’t wish you to understand the differences between the private sector’s real trust funds vs. the federal government’s phony “trust funds.”

Boccia’s preferred solution would allow the commission’s proposals to be “self-executing unless Congress objects,” meaning that legislators would have the “political cover to vocally object to reforms that will create inevitable winners and losers, without re-election concerns undermining an outcome that’s in the best interest of the nation.”

This would be the Republican’s way of saying, “Don’t blame us for cutting your Social Security. It was the commission that did it.”

It’s probably true that Congress itself is the biggest hurdle to managing the federal government’s fiscal situation. Unfortunately, that’s also the biggest reason to be skeptical: any decisions made by a fiscal commission will only be as good as Congress’ willingness to abide by them.

President Obama, of all people, tried this with the notorious Simpson/Bowles Commission, which made exactly the recommendations expected of it. Fortunately, America learned the plot, and the commission’s recommendations never were implemented.

The commission’s recommendations included increasing the Social Security retirement age, cuts to military, benefit, and domestic spending, restricting or eliminating certain tax credits and deductions, and increasing the federal gasoline tax.

The Simpson-Bowles proposal would have cut entitlement and social safety net programs, including Social Security and Medicare, which was opposed by critics on the left, such as Democratic Representative Jan Schakowsky (a Commission member) and economist Paul Krugman.

There’s no secret knowledge about reducing deficits that will only be unlocked by bringing together a collection of legislators and private sector experts, which is what most of the bills to create a commission propose doing.

Federal deficit spending is necessary for economic growth. Deficit reduction leads to recessions, which then are cured by deficit increases.

When federal deficits decline (red line). We have recessions (vertical gray bars), which are cured by increases in federal deficits.

One would think that repeatedly seeing the same effect — nine consecutive recessions caused by deficit reduction, 9 successive recessions cured by deficit increases — our leaders eventually would realize that far from being a bad thing, federal deficits are necessary.

The ignorant have been claiming for more than 80 years that the federal budget is “unsustainable” and a “ticking time bomb.” Read a list of some such claims here.

In all those years, much to the consternation of the ignorant, the ticking time bomb never has exploded.

Congress should hold hearings, invite experts to share their views, draft proposals, vet those ideas through the committee process, and then put the resulting bills on the House floor for a full vote.

Shielding Congress from the electoral consequences of making poor fiscal decisions doesn’t seem to improve budget-making quality. We need Congress to be held more accountable for this mess.

No, we need our leaders to be held accountable for disseminating the lie that federal deficits are harmful. Here is what happens when we ignore the fundamental truth that federal deficits are a blessing, not a curse:

Every depression in U.S. history began with a reversal of federal deficit creation:

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807.
1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.
1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

Here is what should be done:

Step 1. Call it what it really is. Rather than talking about a federal “debt,” we should talk about the economy’s income. The misnamed “debt” is income for the economy. It’s money flowing from the infinitely wealthy federal government into the economy that needs and uses the money for growth.

Step 2. Rather than instituting a commission to cut private sector income, thus causing recessions and depressions, America should create a plan to improve the lives of our people. Use the infinite money-creation power of the federal government to:

  • Fund public education about the benefits of Monetary Sovereignty
  • Fund a comprehensive, no-deductible Medicare for every man, woman, and child in America.
  •  for the homeless
  • Fund college for everyone in America who wants an advanced degree.
  • Fund Social Security benefits for every man, woman, and child in America.
  • Eliminate FICA, which funds nothing but is America’s most regressive tax.
  • Fund various research projects, including medical, physical, psychological, and environmental.
  • Fund long-term care
  • Fund housing
  • Fund childcare for working families.

And fund all the other projects that would benefit the public and narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest.

A $33 trillion national debt didn’t come crashing out of the sky like an asteroid that couldn’t be avoided.

“No responsible leader can look at the rapid deterioration of our balance sheet, the CBO projection of these unsustainable deficits, and the long-term unfunded liabilities of our nation and not feel compelled to intervene and change course,” Arrington said Wednesday.

He’s right, but that only draws a line under the contradiction. A responsible Congress would be working on a serious plan to get the deficit under control. Instead, the Budget Committee is working on proposals to avoid doing that.

The article ends with ignorance and lies. Contrary to the above statements, the facts are:

  1. The federal government’s balance sheet is not “deteriorating.”
  2. Deficits are necessary, not “unsustainable.”
  3. All federal liabilities are funded by the federal government’s infinite ability to create sovereign currency.

Finally, if you vote for the right-wing here is a letter you may wish to send to your children and grandchildren:

Dear Loved Ones

I sincerely apologize for electing people who fouled your water, your earth, and your air, cut Social Security, cut Medicare, cut Obamacare, increased your taxes, lied about COVID and vaccinations, and did nothing to improve the lives of all (except the rich, who were well rewarded).

I also apologize for electing a Hitler clone who admitted he would arrest everyone disagreeing with him and give all the nation’s wealth to those who already are wealthy.

I could claim ignorance, but to be honest, I was warned about what would happen. I guess I yielded to my hatred of blacks, browns, yellows, reds, Jews, Muslims, women, the poor, immigrants, and gays. 

I should have learned about Monetary Sovereignty, but I was so busy denying the danger of guns and the attempted coup I had neither the time nor the inclination to learn anything.

Perhaps you will be wiser.

I hope you will forgive me for the miserable, ignorant, hate-filled world I have left for you.

But at least the very rich are very happy.

 

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY