Stagflation: And now others are predicting it. How to prevent it, and why

Government exists to protect and improve people’s lives. If it didn’t, why would we give it so much of our time, money, and freedoms?

Too often, people forget why they pay for a government. President John Kennedy once said, “Ask not what your government can do for you; ask what you can do for your government.”

Poetic, but also one of the least practical statements a president can make. The truth is, government should serve the people, not the other way around. Yet, some economists still claim the U.S. federal government can’t afford to help the poor, sick, and powerless, when in reality, as a Monetarily Sovereign entity, it can afford anything.

We are told the federal “debt” is unaffordable, when our Monetarily Sovereign federal government can afford anything — anything at all — and that people often have difficulty paying for their healthcare, education, transportation, housing and other needs.

The U.S. federal government has infinite money. It does not need tax dollars. If it wanted to, it could create trillions of dollars tomorrow while preventing inflation by curing shortages.

None of this is explained to you by our leaders. Instead, they try (and often succeed) to brainwash you into believing that Medicare for All, education for all, food for all, better roads and bridges, research and development — the better life for all — is unaffordable.

It is not. It is affordable. It is the most important purpose of government.

So why do our leaders lie? Two words: Gap Psychology. There is a human desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any measure — income, wealth, power — and to come closer to those “above.” 

Assume man “A” earns $100K, and he receives a raise to $110K. Man “B” earned $50K but he receives a raise to $100K . It is common for man “A’ to feel threatened. “Why should he get a big raise and I got a small  one.” Though “A” still earns more, he resents the Gap below him narrowing.

We see it everywhere: resentment toward the poor receiving free education, free food, free anything. Though the poor may be living on the edge, often going without food or decent housing or education, he has a false “fairness” belief (“It isn’t fair that they get free food or free anything.”)

Logically, it should make no difference to “A.” Nothing is taken from him. But he is envious, resentful, angry.

The rich use that emotion to support the belief that the federal government needs to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits and raise FICA taxes, to increase the Gap between the rich and the rest.

Here is an excerpt from a recent article:

SA analyst says a stagflationary recession risk is growing

10/15/2026

Wall Street tumbled Wednesday as hotter-than-expected inflation data intensified concerns over interest rates, with technology stocks leading the market lower and reigniting warnings about a potential stagflationary recession.

Seeking Alpha analyst Daniel Jones said the latest consumer price index figures

On September 22, 2026, we wrote this: 

Fed Chair Powell pushes the economy over the cliff. Next stop: Stagflation

The past interest rate increases have done nothing to halt or even moderate inflation. So, Chairman Powell does the only “sensible” thing. He keeps doing what repeatedly has failed, praying that somehow, in some way, magic will happen.

To fight higher prices, the Fed will raise the prices of mortgages, autos, and business operations — and just about every other thing you wish to buy. And some people believe this nonsense.

For many years, economists have been taught that higher interest rates reduce borrowing, spending, and investment, thereby reducing demand and slowing inflation.

The presumed chain of events is:

1. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive.
2. Consumers buy fewer houses, cars, and other goods.
3. Businesses reduce borrowing, investment, and hiring.
4. Total demand for goods and services falls.
5. With less demand competing for available supply, businesses have less ability to raise prices.

Higher interest rates supposedly fight inflation by reducing demand. The theory assumes that the demand-reducing effects outweigh the inflationary effects of higher borrowing costs and increased interest income.

What is another name for #s 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5? RECESSION. 

Economists have been taught in school that the cure for inflation is higher prices and recession. It is madness. It is the often-proven disastrous AUSTERITY.

Inflation is caused by shortages of crucial goods and services, so to cure inflation one must cure the shortages. You don’t cure shortages by impoverishing the public and causing a recession; you address them directly. 

If the shortage is of oil, the government should fund additional exploration, drilling, refining, storage, shipping, and importing. It also should fund alternative energy like solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear, plus R&D to use fossil fuels and non-fossil fuels more efficiently.

More energy sources + better use of energy = no shortage + prosperity. 

Increased costs via higher interest rates + less availability of products  and services = recession and poverty.

If the shortage is of food, the government should fund farming R&D, education, land use, crop cultivation, shipping, packaging, and retail. It should not impoverish the nation in a theatrical, inflation-reductioin ruse  —especially when the proposed benefit cuts and tax increases disproportionately harm the middle and lower classes.

Congress, funded by the ultra-wealthy, possesses the tools to eliminate shortages; the Federal Reserve does not. Yet, Congress conveniently has offloaded the task of inflation control onto the Fed.

And that is the whole point.

Recessions impose costs on everyone, but they are devastating for the “not-rich.” They provide a pretext for federal austerity: benefits are slashed, taxes are hiked, the vulnerable suffer, and the wealthy acquire assets at bargain prices.

When the recession finally wanes, the non-wealthy find their benefits permanently slashed and their tax burdens increased, while the ultra-wealthy have secured assets at bargain prices. These acquired assets appreciate tax-deferred and are ultimately subject to the lowest capital gains rates.

Conversely, if the average worker earns a raise, it immediately is taxed at the highest marginal rates. Even those prudent enough to save through an IRA see their hard-earned money taxed at these peak rates upon withdrawal.

Consequently, the wealth Gap widens, which is precisely the outcome desired by the wealthy and the Federal Reserve.

So thank you, Fed and Congress, from those who are in the upper 2%, for the stagflation-widening Gap, which makes the rich ever richer and the poor their permanent — even willing — servants. The not-rich have been taught that federal deficit spending is a financial problem whereas unaffordability for the rest of America is expected.

Sadly, you of the not rich accept the devastating lie that y9u should, “Ask not what the goverment can do for you, but ask what you can do for the government.” 

It is the lie that, if you believe it, will impoverish your family, forever.

At long last think:

  1. The federal government has infinite money. Unlike state/local governments it doesn’t need tax dollars. It creates all the dollars it needs by voting for them. I never can run short.
  2. Increasing interest rate raises the prices it supposedly reduces.
  3. The cure for inflations is not to quench demand by depressing the economy. The cure is to reduce shortages by targeted federal spending.
  4. Federal debt and deficits are not problems for taxpayers. Despite the words negative-sounding words “debt” and “deficit,’ they actually are assets to the economy. The higher the deficit, the faster the economy will grow. 

Ignorance is costly. If you vote with ignorance you will suffer with stagflation — unless you are very rich.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

 

Monetary Sovereignty and Gap Psychology: Why the Rich Need The Poor

Monetary Sovereignty and Gap Psychology: Why the Rich Need The Poor

  • Why does the richest nation in history repeatedly claim it cannot afford to provide adequate healthcare, retirement income, education, housing, and food for its people?
  • Why do politicians warn that Social Security and Medicare are running out of money while the federal government continues to create trillions of dollars for other purposes?
  • Why are Americans told that helping the poor requires painful sacrifices, higher taxes, and reductions in other benefits?
  • And why do these supposed financial limitations so often fall most heavily on those who have the least?

To answer those questions, we need to understand two fundamental economic concepts: Monetary Sovereignty and Gap Psychology, two pillars of economics.

Monetary Sovereignty explains the federal government’s relationship with money. Gap Psychology explains an important part of humanity’s relationship with power. One concerns what the government can do. The other helps explain why it doesn’t. Together, they explain some of the most persistent contradictions in American economic policy.

The Gap: Why Being Rich Requires Someone Else to be Poorer

Imagine that you have $1 million. Are you rich? That depends.

If everyone else has $100, you are extraordinarily rich. If everyone else has $1 million, you are average. If everyone else has $100 million, you are poor. Your $1 million has not changed. What changed was your position relative to everyone else.

Thus, rich and poor are comparative terms. They describe relationships, not merely quantities. I call that relationship the Gap. It separates people according to income, wealth, power, status, and other measures of superiority.

And Gap Psychology describes the common human desire to widen the Gap below oneself and narrow the Gap above.

Consider a man who can perform only two chin-ups. He wants to be considered strong. He could exercise until he can perform twenty chin-ups, or he could hang a 300-pound weight from everyone else’s ankles. Suddenly, his two chin-ups might make him the strongest man in the room.

He hasn’t improved himself. He has made everyone else comparatively weaker. That is Gap Psychology. You can increase your relative superiority either by raising yourself or by lowering others. And lowering others sometimes is easier.

This principle extends far beyond money.

The Gap is Everywhere

Gap Psychology operates in two directions. We look up at people with more income, wealth, status, or power than we do, and we want to narrow that Gap. But we also look down at those with less, and we resist their narrowing the Gap with us. These two impulses aren’t necessarily equal. We may enjoy gaining on the people above us, but we can feel something more visceral when the people below us gain on us.

Consider a simple inheritance. A parent leaves one child $2 million. She is delighted—until she learns that her sibling received $2,000,010. She hasn’t lost a penny. She still has the same $2 million that delighted her moments earlier. What she has lost is relative position. Ten dollars changed happiness into resentment, not because of its purchasing power but because of its effect on the Gap.

This may connect Gap Psychology to the well-established psychological phenomenon of loss aversion: losses generally affect us more strongly than equivalent gains. A raise is welcome. Try cutting someone’s salary by the same amount and observe the difference.

But Gap Psychology adds another dimension: We can experience a loss without losing anything at all. If someone below us rises toward us, our income and wealth may remain unchanged while our relative position declines.

Suppose Fred earns $60,000 and Sam earns $40,000. Fred has a $20,000 income Gap below him. Now suppose a government program improves Sam’s economic position by $20,000 while costing Fred nothing. Fred still earns $60,000. In absolute terms, he has lost nothing. But his $20,000 Gap has shrunk to $0. If relative position matters to Fred, he has experienced something that feels like a loss.

This helps explain why Gap Psychology is not merely a theory about the rich. Middle-class people, and even those with relatively low incomes, often oppose programs that benefit people poorer than themselves. Their opposition may seem irrational if we assume that everyone seeks only to maximize their own absolute financial well-being. But it becomes more understandable if relative position also has value. A benefit received by someone below me can narrow my Gap even when it costs me nothing.

Thus, the desire to preserve hierarchy can extend throughout the hierarchy. The billionaire wants distance from the millionaire. The millionaire wants distance from the upper-middle class. The upper-middle class wants distance from the middle class. The middle class wants distance from the poor. Even someone near the bottom may place considerable psychological value on knowing that someone else remains below him.

This helps explain the remarkable durability of caste and class systems. A hierarchy need not provide substantial material benefits to everyone who defends it. Each level except the bottom can receive at least one benefit from the arrangement: the status of not being at the bottom. The system can therefore recruit some of its own victims to help preserve it.

And this may explain something particularly important about political efforts to protect the income/wealth/power Gap. The rich need not persuade middle-income people that making billionaires richer will improve their lives. That can be a difficult sale. It may be far easier to persuade them that improving the lives of people below them will diminish what they have earned, reward people who do not deserve it, or unfairly elevate others to their level.

In that sense, Gap Psychology can turn the hierarchy into a self-protecting system. Those at the top have the greatest economic incentive to preserve it, but people throughout the hierarchy can also gain a psychological incentive to protect or even widen the Gap immediately below them.

We aspire to narrow the Gap above us, but we may fight even harder to prevent others from narrowing the Gap below us. And that may be one reason economic hierarchies survive even when most of the people defending them are nowhere near the top.

Consider intelligence. A child who learns to read at age four may be considered exceptionally intelligent. But if every other child learns to read at age three, that same child may be considered slow.

Consider physical ability. A man who runs 100 meters in twelve seconds is fast compared with most people, but slow compared with an Olympic sprinter.

Consider social status. A person may feel important because of a prestigious job, an exclusive club, an expensive automobile, a distinguished family, or membership in a particular organization. Satisfaction often comes not merely from possessing something desirable, but from possessing something others lack.

Exclusivity itself becomes valuable. An exclusive club loses some of its appeal when everyone can join. A luxury brand loses some of its status when everyone can afford it. A title loses some of its distinction when everyone possesses it. The Gap gives these things their comparative value.

People can also gain a sense of superiority through the groups they belong to. Sports provide an example. When the Chicago Bears won the Super Bowl following the 1985 season, their fans celebrated as though they personally had accomplished something extraordinary. I was one of them. I hadn’t blocked a defensive lineman, thrown a pass, or scored a touchdown. Nevertheless, I felt victorious.

Why? Because I identified with the winning group. Their superiority became my superiority. The same psychological mechanism can operate through nationalities, religions, political movements, professions, social classes, and other affiliations.

People seek superiority not only as individuals but also as members of groups. When their group rises, they feel elevated. When a competing group falls, they may experience a similar satisfaction. Gap Psychology helps explain why people sometimes celebrate another group’s misfortune even when that misfortune provides no material benefit to themselves.

From Gap Psychology to Caste and Class

Throughout history, societies have established systems that rank human beings according to ancestry, religion, occupation, race, wealth, and social position.

Caste systems are particularly revealing. Their purpose is not merely to recognize differences among people. They establish differences in status, rights, opportunities, and power. They preserve those differences across generations.

A person born into a dominant caste may possess privileges unavailable to someone born into a subordinate caste, regardless of individual ability. The superiority Gap is inherited.

Religion and group identity also can become vehicles for asserting superiority. Some groups claim special virtue, divine favor, purity, or exclusive access to truth. Such claims can justify treating outsiders as inferior.

Not every religion, club, or social organization behaves this way. But the mechanism recurs: membership in a supposedly superior group provides status, while exclusion helps preserve it.

In her book “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents”, Isabel Wilkerson examines how hierarchical social systems preserve privilege through inherited status, exclusion, stigma, and institutional power. Gap Psychology provides one possible explanation for the human attraction to such hierarchies.

If my superiority depends on your inferiority, your improvement can feel like my loss. That is the essential psychological problem. And it becomes particularly consequential when applied to economics.

Why the Rich Want to Widen the Gap

The rich possess more than money. They possess economic power. Money can buy goods and services, but wealth also can purchase ownership, influence, access, security, and control over resources.

A wealthy employer may determine whether hundreds or thousands of people have jobs. A wealthy landlord may determine the conditions under which families obtain housing. A wealthy investor may influence which businesses expand and which disappear. A wealthy donor may obtain political access unavailable to ordinary voters.

These forms of power do not depend solely on how many dollars the wealthy possess. They also depend on how economically independent everyone else is.

Imagine two societies. In the first, workers have government-guaranteed healthcare, retirement income, affordable education, and a dependable minimum income.

In the second, workers risk losing healthcare when they lose their jobs. Retirement is uncertain. Education creates debt. Unemployment threatens financial catastrophe.

In which society does an employer possess greater leverage over employees? Clearly, the second. Workers who fear losing essential benefits have fewer practical choices. They may accept lower wages, undesirable working conditions, or mistreatment because leaving their jobs carries unacceptable risks. The employer’s power grows as the worker’s alternatives diminish.

That is the connection between wealth and dependence. The Gap is not merely a difference in dollars. It is a difference in freedom. A wealthy person need not consciously think, “I want workers to remain dependent on me.” But economic incentives can operate without such explicit thoughts.

The result remains. Systems that preserve economic insecurity can preserve the advantages associated with concentrated wealth. And Gap Psychology suggests that preserving relative superiority may itself become a powerful motivation.

Monetary Sovereignty: The other pillar

Now consider an entirely different question. Where does the federal government obtain dollars?

Most Americans have been taught to think of federal finances as though the United States were an enormous household. The federal government collects taxes. It spends the money. If it spends more than it collects, it must borrow the difference. We are told that eventually, the debt grows so large that the government no longer can afford to pay its bills.

This familiar explanation overlooks a fundamental distinction. A household, business, city or state government uses dollars. The United States federal government operates the monetary system that issues dollars. It is Monetarily Sovereign.

The federal government cannot create unlimited doctors, nurses, houses, oil, food, steel, or electricity merely by issuing dollars. Those are real resources. But the monetary system can create the dollars to buy these assets without first obtaining them from taxpayers.

The U.S. Treasury does not have the same financial limitations as a household. Though the federal government can face a shortage of real resources. It never faces an inherent shortage of its own currency. That means federal programs should be evaluated primarily according to their real economic consequences, not on cost.

  • Will they require resources that are unavailable at any price?
  • Will they increase productive capacity?Will they improve people’s lives?
  • Will they cause or relieve inflationary shortages?

Those questions are more meaningful than asking whether the federal government can somehow find enough dollars.

Where the Two Pillars Meet

Now combine Monetary Sovereignty with Gap Psychology. Suppose the federal government possessed the monetary capacity to provide substantially greater economic security to ordinary Americans.

And, suppose those benefits would reduce poverty, improve health, increase educational opportunities, and make workers less dependent on wealthy employers and asset owners. Such policies could narrow the income/wealth/power Gap. That would benefit millions of Americans. But it also could reduce the relative advantages of people whose power depends partly on the economic insecurity of others.

Gap Psychology supplies a possible motive for resisting those policies. Monetary Sovereignty exposes a weakness in the argument that the government simply cannot afford them. Together, the concepts raise an uncomfortable question:

Are Americans being denied benefits because the federal government lacks the monetary capacity to provide them, or because providing them would alter existing relationships of wealth and power?

The answer may differ among particular policies and political actors. But the question deserves far more attention than it receives.

The Remarkable History of FICA

Social Security provides a revealing example. When President Franklin Roosevelt established Social Security, he insisted that the program include payroll contributions. Why?

Was it because the federal government otherwise would lack the dollars needed to pay retirement benefits? No. Roosevelt’s own explanation suggests something quite different.

In a 1941 conversation recorded by Luther Gulick, Roosevelt explained that payroll contributions were intended to give workers a legal, moral, and political claim to their benefits. He described the taxes as intended to protect Social Security against future attempts to abolish it.

Roosevelt understood something important about human psychology. People are more likely to defend benefits they believe they have earned than benefits portrayed as government charity. Payroll contributions helped transform Social Security from a welfare program into a perceived earned right.

And Roosevelt expected that perception to make the program politically secure. He did not present the payroll tax as a necessary source of dollars that the federal government otherwise lacked.

The irony is extraordinary. A tax intended to protect Social Security politically became part of the argument for limiting Social Security financially. Today, Americans repeatedly hear that Social Security benefits cannot be expanded because payroll taxes and trust-fund balances are insufficient.

The program is described as though it were a private pension fund that must accumulate dollars before distributing them. But that is a statutory financing arrangement, not a fundamental limitation on federal monetary capacity.

Congress could authorize benefits through a different financing system. The federal government would not gain any new power to create dollars. It would exercise an existing monetary capacity under different laws.

Roosevelt intended payroll contributions to protect Social Security from political destruction. He apparently did not anticipate how effectively the resulting financing structure could be used to argue against expanding benefits.

The Trust-fund Illusion

The Social Security and Medicare trust funds reinforce the same misunderstanding. The phrase trust fund suggests a protected pool of money, invested independently and held exclusively for future recipients. Private trust funds operate that way.

Federal trust funds are different. They are legal and accounting arrangements through which the government records designated receipts, expenditures, and obligations. Social Security trust funds hold special Treasury securities. Those securities are assets of the trust funds and liabilities of the Treasury. One part of the federal government holds obligations issued by another part.

The arrangements are legally real. Their balances matter under existing statutes, but they do not represent an independent source of monetary power.

When the federal government redeems a trust fund’s Treasury securities, it makes dollar payments through the same monetary system that makes all other federal dollar payments possible. Congress can change the laws governing trust-fund financing. But it cannot change the fact that the federal government issues the currency in which benefits are paid.

Yet the public repeatedly and falsely is told that trust-fund depletion means Social Security is running out of money. The statement confuses two different propositions. The trust fund may exhaust its authority to support scheduled benefits under existing law. But the federal government always can create new dollars.

The distinction matters because the proposed responses often involve benefit reductions, higher payroll taxes, later retirement ages, or combinations of those measures. Those policies have serious consequences.

Reducing benefits increases recipients’ financial insecurity. Increasing payroll taxes reduces workers’ take-home pay. Raising retirement ages can impose particular burdens on people whose health or occupations make continued employment difficult. And because businesses pay 50% of FICA, this not only reduces economic profits but discourages hiring.

Each policy deserves examination according to its actual effects. But no one should justify these policies by pretending the federal government is financially equivalent to a private pension fund.

Healthcare and the Power of Dependence

Consider employer-sponsored healthcare insurance. Millions of Americans receive health coverage through their employers. That arrangement has advantages, including access to group insurance and employer contributions toward premiums. But it also creates dependence.

An employee contemplating a job change must consider not merely salary and working conditions but also the availability, cost, and quality of health coverage. Economists call this phenomenon “job lock.”

Research has found that employer-linked health insurance can discourage workers from changing jobs or asking for higher wages or improved working conditions.

The Affordable Care Act reduced key problems involving preexisting conditions, but concerns remain about provider networks, coverage differences, premiums, and family benefits. The economic implications extend beyond healthcare.

A worker who can leave an employer without risking medical coverage possesses greater bargaining freedom. A worker whose family depends on the employer’s insurance may feel compelled to remain.

Now imagine Medicare For All.

Healthcare coverage would no longer depend on employment. Workers could change jobs, start businesses, retire, or negotiate without the same fear of losing insurance. The federal government could pay for the program in dollars.

Of course, paying medical bills is not the same as producing medical care. A successful expansion would require adequate doctors, nurses, hospitals, clinics, equipment, medications, and other real resources.

Federal spending to expand those resources would be essential. But the monetary question and the production question are separate. The federal government need not run short of dollars. The healthcare system can run short of healthcare.

That is a real problem requiring a real solution. Declaring Medicare for All unaffordable because the government lacks dollars does not solve it. And the dependence created by employer-sponsored insurance has consequences for the Gap.

Universal Medicare coverage could reduce one important source of employer leverage over workers. That makes healthcare policy a question of economic power as well as medical care.

Social Security For All, Education, and Poverty

The same reasoning extends to other public benefits.

Consider Social Security for All: a federal income floor sufficient to prevent destitution. Such a program would not make everyone wealthy, but it could reduce the desperation that forces people to accept almost any available wage or working condition.

Consider free public college and vocational education, which could provide skills, knowledge, and opportunities. When access depends heavily on family wealth or the willingness to take on debt, existing economic advantages can reproduce across generations. A student from a wealthy family may start adulthood with an education and no debt. A student from a poorer family may have similar abilities but face substantial financial obligations.

The Gap can widen before either student earns a paycheck.

Consider food assistance. A person who lacks adequate food has less freedom to make long-term decisions about education, employment, health, and family life. Reducing hunger can improve both individual well-being and productive capacity.

These programs have different costs, resource requirements, and economic effects. They should not be treated as interchangeable, but they share an important characteristic. They can reduce the degree to which survival and opportunity depend on private wealth. That is why Gap Psychology is so important.

The Tax Code: Another Window Into the Gap

The federal tax code further illustrates how financial policies maintain these hierarchies. While labor income is typically taxed at the highest marginal rates as it is earned, capital gains often enjoy preferential tax treatment and the ability to defer taxation indefinitely. Through deductions, exclusions, and loopholes, the tax system often consolidates wealth at the top, reinforcing the economic divide that Gap Psychology seeks to preserve.

These rules are not distributed equally across economic circumstances. People whose income comes primarily from wages face a different tax environment from people whose wealth comes largely from appreciating assets.

Raising the top ordinary income-tax rate therefore does not necessarily reach all the mechanisms through which enormous fortunes accumulate, nor does it automatically eliminate the political and economic advantages associated with concentrated ownership.

In short, the tax code does more than collect revenue. It influences who accumulates wealth, who retains it, and widens the income/wealth/power Gap. Further, people with substantial wealth have more resources to influence the laws that govern it.

That creates a reinforcing cycle. Wealth provides influence, which helps preserve favorable economic arrangements. Those arrangements preserve or increase wealth, which provides still more influence.

The Question of Motive.

If the federal government possesses the monetary capacity to provide greater benefits, why does the claim that it cannot afford them remain so influential? There are several possible explanations. Some people sincerely misunderstand how the federal government manages money. They apply household financial rules to the federal government because those rules are familiar.

Others understand that federal finance differs from household finance but believe that taxes, borrowing restrictions, and spending limits provide useful safeguards against inflation or excessive political spending.

Still others may find that claims of financial scarcity support policies favorable to their economic interests.

These explanations can coexist. But Gap Psychology preserves relative superiority. People may not acknowledge that motivation, even to themselves. They may describe their preferences in terms of fiscal responsibility, self-reliance, efficiency, fairness, or opposition to government dependency.

Some of those concerns may be sincere; some may be rationalizations, and some may conceal deliberate efforts to preserve economic advantages. But the distributional consequences of policies can be examined by:

    • Who gains or loses?
    • Whose economic independence increases or decreases?
    • Whose relative power grows or shrinks?

Those questions reveal dimensions of economic policy that conventional discussions of deficits and debt often overlook the difference between wanting more and wanting relatively more. Conventional economics often assumes people seek to increase their material well-being, but Gap Psychology adds another consideration. People also seek to improve their position relative to others.

Imagine a wealthy person choosing between two outcomes. Under the first, his wealth increases by 20%, while everyone else’s wealth increases by 40%. Under the second, his wealth increases by 10%, while everyone else’s wealth stays the same.

The first outcome makes him absolutely richer. The second may make him relatively richer. If he values absolute wealth most, he may prefer the first, but if he values relative superiority most, he may prefer the second. That distinction matters enormously.

It suggests that opposition to broadly beneficial policies often stems not from fear that the wealthy will become poorer, but from the realization that such policies would accelerate everyone else’s advancement. Consequently, a policy can increase national prosperity while simultaneously narrowing the social and economic gap—an outcome many find unacceptable because it diminishes their relative standing.

For people who value relative superiority, that narrowing itself may feel threatening. The desire to widen the Gap therefore can conflict with the desire to maximize total prosperity. When those who benefit from a wide Gap have disproportionate political influence, that conflict can prevent affordable programs that benefit the poor.

What About Inflation?

Inflation is the widespread increase in prices. If there is a shortage of bananas, the cost of bananas will rise, but that is not inflation. If food is scarce, the cost of food will rise, and that could be inflation. If there is a shortage of food and oil, the cost of everything will rise, and that absolutely is inflation.

Many people believe, and many economics texts teach, that federal spending increases demand, and that increase causes inflation. The evidence does not support this. See: The inflation myths debunked. It’s never “money-printing.” It’s always shortages.

The article lists historical inflations and their causes. It shows that no major historical inflations have been caused primarily by a government spending “too much.”  Further, the article shows that recessions are caused by a government spending too little.

To prevent and cure inflations, it is not necessary to instigate recessions. Instead, the government should prevent and cure shortages of critical goods and services, most often oil, food and labor. Rather than trying to  prevent inflation via a blanket restriction of federal deficit spending, a Monetarily Sovereign government should:

    • Identify the shortages
    • Increase the supply of scarce goods and services.
    • Invest in productive capacity.
    • Remove unnecessary barriers to production.Train additional workers.
    • Develop technology.
    • Expand infrastructure.

The conventional response to inflation often emphasizes reducing demand by raising interest rates, increasing taxes, or cutting spending. Those policies can reduce inflationary pressure by making purchases more expensive (ironically) and reducing people’s ability to buy. They do not eliminate the underlying shortages.

The current “plan” (if one can call it a plan) is to reduce demand for scarce medical care rather than to produce more medical care. Forcing the sick to go untreated is not a viable anti-inflation program.

There is a difference between making housing unaffordable and building more housing. Making energy unaffordable for some is different from increasing the amount of energy available.

If the problem is a shortage, the lasting solution is to relieve the shortage. Federal spending can reduce inflationary pressure by increasing the supply of what is scarce.

Therefore, the question should not be merely how much the government spends. It should be what the spending accomplishes.

The Purpose of Government

The purpose of government is to protect and improve the lives of the governed.

We do not suggest punishing wealthy people for being wealthy, nor must everyone have the same income, property, or status. People differ in ability, ambition, preferences, circumstances, and accomplishments. Differences in income and wealth will exist.

The question is whether those differences should determine access to the necessities of life and the degree of freedom people possess. Should a person be forced to remain in an undesirable job because leaving would endanger the family’s healthcare? Should an elderly person face poverty because a federal accounting arrangement has reached a statutory limit? Should a capable student be denied education because the family lacks money? Should children go hungry in a nation with the productive capacity to feed them?

Monetary Sovereignty tells us that the availability of federal dollars should not be an obstacle. Gap Psychology suggests why reducing those hardships may encounter resistance from people and institutions whose relative advantages depend partly on their continuation.

The two theories therefore illuminate different sides of the same problem. One explains the monetary possibilities. The other examines the human incentives that can prevent those possibilities from being realized.

The Ultimate Gap

The most important Gap is not the difference between two bank accounts. It is the difference between two people’s freedom. One person can leave an unpleasant job without worrying about food, housing, or medical care. Another cannot.

One can pursue education without incurring unaffordable debt. Another cannot. One can survive a financial emergency without losing a home. Another cannot. One can influence public policy through wealth and connections. Another struggles merely to be heard.

These differences are economic, but they also are differences in power. And power can perpetuate itself. People with power can influence the rules under which others acquire power. People without power may lack the resources to change those rules. The Gap therefore can become self-reinforcing.

That is why reducing poverty is not enough. A society can become wealthier while its economic hierarchy becomes more extreme. The poor can gain dollars while losing relative influence. The middle class can earn higher salaries while becoming more dependent on employers, lenders, insurers, and asset owners.

Prosperity and Economic Independence are Not Identical.

A society should be judged not merely by how much wealth it produces but also by how that wealth affects people’s lives and freedoms. Monetary Sovereignty and Gap Psychology approach economics from opposite directions. Monetary Sovereignty begins with the nature of money. Gap Psychology begins with the nature of human comparisons.

Monetary Sovereignty asks what a currency-issuing government can accomplish. Gap Psychology asks how the desire for relative superiority influences people’s decisions.

Together, they help explain why policies that could improve millions of lives may face determined resistance. The familiar claim is that America cannot afford to provide greater economic security to its people. But the more revealing question may be, Who benefits when:

  • Americans believe that claim?
  • retirement remains uncertain?
  • healthcare depends on employment?
  • education requires debt?
  • workers fear unemployment more than employers fear losing workers?
  • people accept economic insecurity as unavoidable?

And who loses power when those insecurities disappear?

These questions don’t require us to assume every wealthy person is selfish, every politician dishonest, or every economist ignorant. They require us to recognize that economic policies influence relative power—and that relative power can influence economic policies.

For too long, Americans have been trapped in a manufactured debate over whether the federal government can “afford” to improve their lives. This framing ignores the reality of our Monetary Sovereignty and obscures the incentives driven by Gap Psychology.

The federal government possesses extraordinary monetary capacity, and our nation holds vast productive potential. Neither guarantees perfect policy, but together they make it essential to ask why so many Americans remain economically insecure.

The answer is not found in national affordability, but in the incentives of powerful interests to maintain the status quo. Monetary Sovereignty shows that federal financial scarcity is a choice, not a constraint; Gap Psychology explains why prosperity’s benefits are intentionally kept unequally distributed.

Together, these concepts lead us to a fundamental question: If our government has the inherent capacity to free its citizens from economic dependence, why do we continue to accept false narratives of financial limitation as a justification for preserving that very dependence?

The greatest obstacle to narrowing the Gap is not a shortage of dollars, but rather the value some people place on keeping the Gap wide.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

The Solution to Medicare and Social Security

My favorite radio station is public radio WLRN.  One show I enjoy most is On Point, hosted by the brilliant Meghan Chakrabarti.

Sadly, while she and her guests often lament the state of inequality and health care in America and the looming insolvency of Medicare, Medicaid, and  Social Security, they never seem to offer a solution other than cutting benefits and/or making Americans pay more.

We can do better;

———————–

The Real Limits on Federal Spending:
Healthcare, Poverty, and Inflation

Real resources are limited. Dollars are unlimited.

Two propositions should start any discussion of federal spending, healthcare, poverty, and inflation.

  1. No American should be unable to obtain needed healthcare because they lack money.
  2. No American should be forced to live in poverty merely because private income is inadequate.

These are not questions of whether the United States can “find” enough dollars. The federal government, as the issuer of the U.S. dollar, never can run short of dollars.

Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Chairman: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. Nothing prevents the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

The genuine economic question is whether the nation has enough real goods and services to satisfy the demand those dollars create.

That distinction changes almost everything. Federal finance commonly is discussed as though the federal government were a household, business, city, or state. Such users of the dollar must obtain dollars before they can spend them. The federal government creates the dollars it spends. Its meaningful limit therefore is not a shortage of dollars. The limit is inflation, and inflation ultimately is a problem of insufficient supply.

Inflation Is a Supply Problem

Prices rise when supply is insufficient relative to demand. When the shortage involves a product of limited importance, the result may be merely a higher price for that product. A shortage of a particular luxury handbag does not cause general inflation. But shortages of widely used necessities and inputs can spread price increases throughout the economy.

Energy is the obvious example. Oil and natural gas affect transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, chemicals, plastics, heating, electricity, and distribution. When energy becomes scarce, its higher cost is passed through to the prices of thousands of other goods and services.

Food shortages can have similarly broad effects. So can serious shortages of housing, labor, steel, shipping capacity, computer chips, or other resources that are used throughout the economy.

Wars, droughts, pandemics, crop failures, embargoes, OPEC restrictions, natural disasters, monopoly restrictions, labor shortages, housing shortages, and supply-chain failures all can create inflationary pressures without any need for “excessive” federal spending. The common element is not too many federal dollars. It is inadequate availability of important goods and services.

This is why the familiar phrase “government spending causes inflation” is misleading. It treats all federal spending as economically identical simply because it is all denominated in dollars. But the effect of spending depends on what it buys.

The Crucial Question: What Does the Spending Buy?

Suppose there is a serious oil shortage. Gasoline prices rise, transportation costs rise, and those costs work their way into food, manufactured goods, construction, and countless other prices. The federal government could respond by eliminating gasoline taxes or sending consumers checks.

Those actions would help people pay the higher prices, but they would not produce another barrel of oil. Indeed, by supporting demand for the same inadequate supply, they could let prices rise even further.

Now suppose the federal government spends the same number of dollars to attack the shortage itself: encouraging additional production where practical, expanding refining capacity, improving pipelines and distribution, developing substitute sources of energy, increasing efficiency, or removing some other bottleneck responsible for the shortage.

The number of federal dollars spent might be identical, yet the economic effect would be entirely different. The first form of spending finances competition for a shortage. The second increases the supply and therefore attacks the source of the inflation.

The important distinction, then, is not simply more federal spending versus less federal spending. It is spending that leaves shortages untouched versus spending that prevents or cures shortages. Federal spending can be inflationary, neutral, or anti-inflationary depending on its effect on the supply of the goods and services people need.

Healthcare: Financing Is Not Producing

Healthcare illustrates the distinction especially well. Millions of Americans cannot comfortably afford medical care, and public discussion treats this as though the nation lacks the dollars needed to pay doctors and hospitals. It does not.

The federal government can create all the dollars necessary to pay for healthcare. The real limitation is whether the country has enough doctors, nurses, technicians, hospitals, clinics, ambulances, laboratories, medicines, equipment, nursing facilities, home-health workers, and other medical resources.

Medicare for All therefore should have two inseparable parts. The first is financial: make necessary healthcare available regardless of the patient’s ability to pay. No one should avoid a physician, skip a prescription, postpone surgery, or face financial ruin because of illness.

The second part is productive: expand the healthcare supply enough to meet the demand created when financial barriers are removed. The federal government should finance medical education, nursing education, residency programs, training for technicians and other healthcare workers, and incentives to enter specialties and geographic areas suffering shortages. It should support construction and modernization of hospitals, clinics, laboratories, nursing facilities, and other medical infrastructure. It should finance medical research and the development and production of medicines, equipment, diagnostic systems, and treatments.

Simply giving people more ability to pay for a fixed quantity of healthcare could increase medical prices. But that is not an argument against Medicare for All. It is an argument against designing Medicare for All as nothing more than an insurance program. The answer to a healthcare shortage is to finance both access to healthcare and the production of healthcare.

The question “How can we afford Medicare for All?” therefore confuses dollars with resources. The federal government can afford the dollars. The nation must produce the healthcare.

Social Security and Poverty

The same principle applies to poverty, although the spending is less narrowly directed. No one in a wealthy nation should be forced to live in poverty because retirement, disability, unemployment, or low wages leave him or her without adequate income. A Social Security benefit sufficient to establish an income floor could eliminate much financial poverty immediately. Again, the federal government’s ability to create dollars is not the obstacle.

The inflation question is what recipients will buy and whether the economy can supply it. Additional income may increase demand for food, housing, medical care, transportation, home assistance, nursing care, recreation, and many other goods and services. Where supply can expand readily, additional demand can lead to additional production. Where supply is constrained, prices may rise.

That does not mean the government should preserve poverty in order to suppress demand. It means the government should identify the shortages and attack them. If affordable housing is scarce, increase the housing supply. If nursing-home beds are scarce, encourage construction and staffing of nursing facilities. If home-health workers are scarce, finance training and compensation sufficient to attract more workers. If transportation for the elderly is inadequate, expand it. If medical personnel are scarce, train more.

Reducing poverty by increasing income while simultaneously expanding the supply of the goods and services whose demand will rise is a far more humane anti-inflation policy than keeping people poor so they cannot bid for scarce resources.

The Wrong Cure for Inflation

Traditional anti-inflation policy often attempts to reduce demand. Higher interest rates, spending cuts, and tax increases can make borrowing and purchasing more difficult. If enough people are prevented from buying homes, cars, medical care, or other goods and services, price pressures may decline.

But this does not cure the underlying shortage. It can achieve balance by reducing the public’s ability to buy rather than by increasing the nation’s ability to produce.

If there are too few houses, one solution is to make mortgages so expensive that fewer families can buy houses. Another is to increase the housing supply. If energy is scarce, one solution is to suppress economic activity until energy demand falls. Another is to increase energy availability and efficiency. If medical services are scarce, one solution is to make medical care unaffordable for some people. Another is to produce more medical care.

The second approach grows the economy. The first just restrains it.

The Federal Budget Should Ask a Different Question

Federal programs commonly are judged by asking, “How much will this add to the deficit?” For a Monetarily Sovereign government, that question focuses attention on the wrong scarcity. Dollars are not the scarce resource. Every major federal spending proposal instead should be accompanied by a real-resource and inflation analysis.

The questions should be: What additional goods and services will this program cause people or government to demand? Are those goods and services available in sufficient quantity? Where are the likely shortages and bottlenecks? How rapidly can supply expand? What additional federal spending, incentives, research, training, construction, regulatory changes, or other measures would expand that supply?

Under such an approach,

  • Medicare for All would be paired with expansion of medical capacity. Social Security for All would be paired with attention to housing, elder care, healthcare, transportation, and other likely constraints.
  • Housing assistance would be paired with housing construction.
  • Infrastructure spending would include measures to ensure adequate supplies of skilled workers, machinery, steel, concrete, and other necessary resources.

The federal budget then would cease being primarily an exercise in pretending the government might run out of its own dollars. It would become an exercise in managing the nation’s real resources.

The Gap

This has another important consequence. The income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest is not narrowed merely by telling people that desirable programs are “unaffordable.” For the federal government, affordability in dollars is not the issue. The real issue is whether increased purchasing power can be matched by increased production.

A government that understands its Monetary Sovereignty can use federal spending to provide healthcare, prevent poverty, improve education, build infrastructure, support scientific research, and expand productive capacity. Properly directed, such spending can narrow the Gap while reducing, rather than increasing, the shortages that cause inflation.

Two Principles

Much of America’s unnecessary economic suffering rests on confusion about two basic facts.

  1. First, the federal government never can run short of U.S. dollars. Taxes may serve important economic and social purposes, but the federal government does not need to collect dollars before it can create and spend dollars.
  2. Second, the true constraint on federal spending is not the number of dollars created. It is the availability of real resources. Inflation occurs when important supplies are inadequate for the demand placed upon them. Therefore, the intelligent response to inflation is to identify the shortages and cure them.

Those two principles lead to a very different conception of federal economic policy. We do not need to choose between adequate Social Security and stable prices, or between universal healthcare and stable prices. We need to finance what people require while simultaneously financing the productive capacity necessary to provide it.

The United States does not need to ration dollars. It needs to prevent shortages.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

What is the purpose of the debt ceiling?

Once again, the so-called “debt ceiling” is in the news. The Republicans, who traditionally favor limiting federal spending, now support increasing it. The Democrats, who traditionally favor increased federal spending, now advocate for limiting it.

So, as of this writing, we are headed toward a stalemate, which threatens America’s economy.

The Basic Problem: Inflation

Money was created as a store of value and a medium of exchange. It is the basis of economics. 

The earliest form of “standard money” appeared between 3000 and 2000 BCE in Mesopotamia, among the Sumerians and Babylonians. They utilized silver, measured by weight in shekels, as a standard of value for trade and record-keeping, even before the invention of coins. In Egypt, grain, metals, and other commodities served as units of account.

By around 2500 BCE, a form of money as a unit of account and medium of exchange was already in use.

Since then, nations have faced recessions, depressions, and stagflation; however, the primary concern in economics is inflation—the decrease in the value of a nation’s currency. 

Money is an artificial construct of value. A dollar bill is simply printed paper, just like a check. Neither possesses intrinsic value, and both can be easily created. The concern is that creating too much money will lead to a reduction in its value.

To prevent inflation, governments try to limit their ability to create money.

Gold and silver are permanently available in physical form and somewhat scarce, so linking money to these elements (gold and silver standards) was a means of restricting the creation of money.

Gold Standard and the Debt Limit

The debt limit serves as a modern equivalent to the historical gold standard. While the two concepts have different impacts, both aim to limit the government’s ability to create money.

If not for the fear of inflation, neither a gold standard, a silver standard, nor a debt limit would have been invented.

Under a gold standard, each unit of currency (dollar, pound, franc, etc.) was pegged to a fixed weight of gold. The U.S. Gold Standard Act of 1900 set 1 troy ounce of gold to be equal to, $20.67. People could, in theory, redeem paper money for gold at that fixed rate.

The government couldn’t create new money freely; it had to maintain sufficient gold reserves to back it.

If a government runs large deficits and needs to spend heavily, it risks losing gold reserves because creditors or foreign nations might demand repayment in gold. Additionally, “breaking the peg” could trigger panic, bank runs, and a loss of confidence.

In practice, deficit spending was tightly constrained by gold holdings. Countries often had to raise interest rates, cut spending, or deflate their economies to protect reserves.

Gold standards and other physical currency pegs limit economic growth. This limitation is both their purpose and their shortcoming.

When the economy grows faster than the supply of gold, it leads to deflation, meaning there isn’t enough money relative to the amount of goods available. Moreover, if gold is depleted—such as when it’s sent overseas to cover trade deficits—countries are forced to reduce credit and spending, even during recessions.

This is why the gold standard worsened the Great Depression: the U.S. and Europe focused on defending gold reserves instead of stimulating their economies.

The U.S. suspended gold convertibility for domestic purposes in 1933.

Following World War II the Bretton Woods system was established, which pegged various currencies to the U.S. dollar. The dollar, in turn, was pegged to gold at a rate of $35 per ounce.

In 1971, President Nixon ended gold convertibility by “closing the gold window.” Since that time, the U.S. dollar has become fiat money, meaning it is not backed by any physical commodity but rather by U.S. law and the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government.

The years spent dealing with the challenges of the gold and silver standards have ultimately been in vain. Today, inflation is no greater a problem since those standards have been abolished. Additionally, we have not experienced a depression since the end of the gold standard.

About the Debt Ceiling

The debt ceiling is a legal limit set by Congress on the total amount of money that the U.S. Treasury can borrow to fulfill existing obligations.

The stated purpose is to control borrowing. It was originally intended (in 1917, with expansion in 1939) to give Congress oversight of federal borrowing while allowing the Treasury to issue debt without constant, individual approval.

Supporters claim it forces Congress to confront federal deficits and spending levels. Also, it allows legislators to make a public statement about debt, deficits, or fiscal responsibility.

In reality, the debt ceiling does not control new spending. Rather, it restricts the payment of existing obligations. Spending levels and taxes are set by Congress through separate budget and appropriations laws. Once those laws are passed, the Treasury is obligated to pay the bills.

The debt ceiling creates a risk of default. Once the ceiling is reached, the Treasury cannot issue new debt, even though it must meet legally required obligations such as Social Security, interest on the debt, Medicare, military pay, and contracts. This situation forces the use of “extraordinary measures,” and if it continues for too long, it could lead to a U.S. default.

Additionally, the debt ceiling has become a political tool. In recent decades, political parties have used debt ceiling votes to advance unrelated policy goals.

Most economists view the debt ceiling as economically unnecessary and politically hazardous. It does not actually limit future debt, as spending and tax laws determine that. Instead, it introduces an unnecessary risk of default that can destabilize markets and increase U.S. borrowing costs.

The United States is unique in having a separate debt limit; few other advanced economies impose such a restriction, as they allow borrowing to flow automatically based on budget decisions.

In summary, while the stated purpose of the debt ceiling is to promote fiscal restraint, its actual effect is often a result of political posturing that can have serious economic consequences.

Major Debt Ceiling Crises

Congress raised the debt ceiling several times during President Eisenhower’s presidency.

Even then, this effort has been more about political strategy than actual debt control. While Republicans have aimed to project a fiscally more conservative image, the ceiling continued to rise under both parties.

1979 – “Technical Default”: A clerical error, plus temporary cash-flow issues, caused a brief delay in paying Treasury bills. Investors demanded higher yields afterward—showing even the hint of default costs taxpayers.

1995–96 – Clinton vs. Gingrich: The Republican House, led by Speaker Newt Gingrich, refused to raise the ceiling without big spending cuts. Result: Two government shutdowns. The ceiling was eventually raised with no major long-term cuts.

2011 – Obama vs. House Republicans: The Republicans refused to raise the ceiling unless Obama agreed to major deficit reduction. Outcome: The U.S. came within days of default. The “Budget Control Act” imposed automatic spending caps (sequestration).

S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time in history due to political dysfunction. As a result, stock markets fell and borrowing costs rose.

2013 – Obama Again: Another showdown over Obamacare and spending. The Treasury used “extraordinary measures” for months. The ceiling finally was suspended—but markets were rattled, with short-term Treasury yields spiking.

2013 – Obama Again: Another confrontation over Obamacare and spending. The Treasury employed “extraordinary measures” for several months. The ceiling was ultimately suspended, but markets were unsettled, causing short-term Treasury yields to spike.2013 –

2019 – Trump: A bipartisan deal suspended the debt ceiling for two years. Republicans largely dropped opposition to debt increases when they controlled the White House.

2021–2023 – Biden Era: Republicans initially refused to raise the ceiling; Mitch McConnell allowed a temporary extension at the last minute.

2023: With Republicans controlling the House, Speaker Kevin McCarthy negotiated a deal with Biden. The deal capped some discretionary spending growth for 2 years. Treasury had been within days of running out of money.

Notice the pattern? The stated purpose always is to “control debt and deficits,” but the actual outcome is that the debt ceiling always is raised or suspended (78 times since 1960), the so-called “debt” continues to rise, and the economy continues to grow.

Meanwhile, the side effects are market turmoil, higher borrowing costs, political theater, and in 2011, a credit downgrade.

Other advanced countries do not have this issue. In those countries, borrowing authority is automatically granted through the budget process.

The U.S. debt ceiling is unique because it creates artificial crises without altering fiscal reality.

Even the fundamental beliefs are wrong.

I. The Federal Government Does Not Borrow Dollars.

Federal finances are not like personal finances.

The federal government uniquely is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the unlimited ability to create dollars simply by pressing computer keys. It never unintentionally can run short of dollars.

Even if the federal government collected $0 taxes, it could continue spending trillions upon trillions of dollars, forever. 

The notion that the government “borrows” comes from the semantic misunderstanding of the words “notes.” “bills,” and “bonds.” In the private sector, those words signify debt. But in the federal sector, they merely are forms of money, like “dollar bill” and “federal reserve note.”

II. Federal Deficit Spending Is Necessary for Economic Growth

Reductions in federal deficits lead to recessions (vertical gray bars). Recessions are cured by increased federal deficits.

Federal deficits inject growth capital into the economy. While the federal government has unlimited currency, the economy needs a steady inflow of dollars for expansion.

Over the years, as federal deficits have increased, the Gross Domestic Product has also risen.

If federal deficits were economically harmful, one would not expect to see the graph above, which shows the economy’s growth paralleling the growth of deficits.

The reason is clear. GDP=Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports.

III. Federal Deficit Spending Does Not Cause Inflation