What is the complex relationship among inflation, deficits, interest rates, oil prices, tax cuts, and GDP?

It takes only two things to keep people in chains:
.

The ignorance of the oppressed
and the treachery of their leaders.

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To answer the title question, we begin with three questions:

  1. What is the primary cause of inflation?
  2. What is the primary cure for inflation?
  3. What do high interest rates do to Gross Domestic Product?

If you ask the media, most economists, and the public to answer question #1, you probably will receive an answer something like the following:

Should we worry about inflation?
The Week, March 3, 2018

“Until recently, inflation seemed to be dead or, at least, in a prolonged state of remission,” said Robert Samuelson at The Washington Post.

Thanks to cautious companies holding down wages and prices in the aftermath of the recession, annual inflation between 2010 and 2015 averaged just 1.5 percent, “often too small to be noticed.” 

Apparently. Mr. Samuelson believes that prior to the “Great Recession,” companies were not cautious, and so were willing to pay employees more. But, having been frightened by the recession, they now refuse to pay employees more — and that has prevented inflation.

Utter nonsense. Caution has nothing to do with it.

Employers are buyers of talent. Like all buyers, employers try to pay as little as possible to obtain the employee quality they want. Isn’t that what you do when you buy anything?

Companies cannot “hold down” wages at will.

And as for prices, they are a reflection of each company’s market analysis. Companies try to set prices at levels that will provide the highest short- and long-term profits, volume, and share-of-market.

While Robert Samuelson wrongly seems to believe that business “caution” has prevented inflation, most people wrongly believe that federal deficit spending causes inflation.

The green line is inflation. The blue line is federal deficit spending.

Federal deficit spending does not parallel inflation. 

Inflation is a general increase in prices, and if there is one thing that generally increases (or decreases) prices it’s oil.

The green line is Inflation; the silver line is the price of Oil.

Oil prices parallel inflation.

No other factor so closely parallels inflation as does oil — not food, not housing and certainly not wages:

The green line is Inflation; the violet line is Wages

Contrary to popular wisdom, wage increases do not parallel inflation increases. 

In January, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks everything from the price of groceries to education costs, surged 0.5 percent; at that pace, annualized inflation would hit 6 percent by the end of the year.

It almost certainly won’t go that high, but it leaves newly installed Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell “facing a tricky task”: to contain inflation “without killing the economy.”

Traditionally, the Fed would respond by raising interest rates, said  The Wall Street Journal in an editorial.

Yes, while inflation primarily is caused by rising oil prices, inflation is controlled by increasing the value of the dollar, which is accomplished by raising interest rates.

(Value of the dollar = Demand/Supply; Demand=Reward/Risk; Reward=Interest)

But the corporate tax cut and President Trump’s deregulatory agenda could rapidly accelerate economic growth.

That could further fuel inflation, prompting the Fed to raise rates faster than anticipated. In the worst-case scenario, this will severely roil markets and darken the economic outlook.

Contrary to popular wisdom, economic growth does not cause inflation:

The green line is inflation. The orange line is GDP growth.

GDP growth does not parallel inflation.

The Fed’s most potent tool in fighting downturns is cutting interest rates. “Total cuts of 5 to 6 percentage points have been the norm in recent recessions.”

Wrong, again. Low interest rates do not stimulate economic growth:

The blue line is GDP growth. The red line is interest rates.

As interest rates fall, economic growth falls. There are several reasons for this, but the point is that low rates are not stimulative. In fact, by increasing the amount of interest money the government pumps into the economy, high rates can be stimulative.

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise interest rates eight times over the next two years, largely to head off higher prices.

Each time the Fed raises rates, the stock market will respond negatively, only to rebound within a few days.

The negative response will be due to traders’ predictions that the market will respond negatively, not to any fundamental factors.  It is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Finally, we come to tax cuts. Although business tax cuts ostensibly help businesses grow, by cutting business costs, tax cuts actually help shareholders profit. The real, net effect of business tax cuts is to widen the gap between the rich and the rest. 

BUSINESS The news at a glance
Taxes: Firms spend tax windfall on buybacks
The Week (US)

U.S corporations are spending most of their (tax cut) windfall not on higher wages or investment but on “buying their own shares,” said Matt Phillips in The New York Times. Over the past month, nearly 100 U.S. corporations have announced more than $178 billion in share buybacks—“the largest amount unveiled in a single quarter.”

Cisco is devoting $25 billion to buybacks; PepsiCo has announced $15 billion for shares; and Alphabet, home-improvement company Lowe’s, and chip equipment maker Applied Materials are each devoting between $5 billion and $9 billion.

“Such purchases reduce a company’s total number of outstanding shares, giving each remaining share a slightly bigger piece of the profit pie.”

“If the buyback frenzy continues, the administration is going to have some explaining to do,” said Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post.

Part of the problem is that the Trump administration predicted that tax reform would boost U.S. household income by at least $4,000 a year.

Business tax cuts will stimulate the economy and will boost total household income, because tax cuts add dollars to (or remove fewer dollars from) the economy.

However, the benefits will go primarily to the upper-income groups.

In summary, contrary to popular opinion:

  1. Inflation has not been related to federal deficit spending but rather to oil prices.
  2. Wage increases have not been associated with inflation
  3. Inflation and economic growth have not been related
  4. Interest rate cuts have not stimulated economic growth, nor have interest rate increases slowed economic growth
  5. While business tax cuts do stimulate overall economic growth, the benefit primarily goes to the upper-income groups, thereby widening the gap between the rich and the rest.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty
Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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THOUGHTS

•All we have are partial solutions; the best we can do is try.

•Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.

•Any monetarily NON-sovereign government — be it city, county, state or nation — that runs an ongoing trade deficit, eventually will run out of money no matter how much it taxes its citizens.

•The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes..

•No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth.

•Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.

•A growing economy requires a growing supply of money (GDP = Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending + Net Exports). Federal deficit spending grows the supply of money

•The limit to federal deficit spending is an inflation that cannot be cured with interest rate control. The limit to non-federal deficit spending is the ability to borrow.

•Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.

•Progressives think the purpose of government is to protect the poor and powerless from the rich and powerful. Conservatives think the purpose of government is to protect the rich and powerful from the poor and powerless.

•The single most important problem in economics is the Gap between the rich and the rest.

•Austerity is the government’s method for widening the Gap between the rich and the rest.

•Everything in economics devolves to motive, and the motive is the Gap between the rich and the rest..

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

How can something be frightening, infuriating, and hilarious all at once?

Dear Reader,

Here is a brief respite from Monetary Sovereignty economics and from your daily grind.

For those who love America, the news has been discouraging.

Image result for i see nothing
GOP House Intelligence Committee speaks

The House GOP decided that protecting an incompetent and criminal President is far more important than protecting America from Russia.

So with zero effort to uncover facts, the GOP-led House Intelligence Committee decided to adjourn, and to declare — surprise — they had found nothing.

So I felt you could use a little dark humor to lighten your life.  Here is the most hilarious tweet of the day:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Hundreds of good people, including very important Ambassadors and Judges, are being blocked and/or slow walked by the Democrats in the Senate. Many important positions in Government are unfilled because of this obstruction. Worst in U.S. history!

And then there is this not-even-up-to-date list:

Yes, this is one of those rare times when Trump is right: Many important positions in Government indeed are unfilled — most notably the Presidency.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Yet another article that relies on you being ignorant about federal finances and Social Security

It takes only two things to keep people in chains:
.

The ignorance of the oppressed
and the treachery of their leaders.

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Let us begin with three, very simple, related facts:

  1. It is 100% impossible for the U.S. federal government to run short of dollars unless the President and Congress want it to.
  2. Thus, it is 100% impossible for any federal agency to run short of dollars unless the President and Congress want it to.
  3. Social Security is a federal agency.

Therefore:

Social Security cannot run short of dollars unless the President and Congress want it to.

Image result for crocodile tearsIgnore all the crocodile tears about the Social Security “trust fund” running short of money.

Or, there not being enough FICA dollars to pay for future retirees.

Or, the “need” to cut benefits to certain groups, or to tax benefits to other groups.

They are all lies, there is no better way to say it — lies — designed to make you accept fewer benefit dollars, while the rich continue to grab more.

What set me off is the following Motley Fool article, that simply is loaded with the above-mentioned lies.

Will This New Social Security Proposal Gain Traction in Congress?
With Social Security facing a $12.5 trillion cash shortfall, this proposal aims to generate more revenue and reward those disadvantaged by the program.
By: Sean Williams  Mar 10, 2018

Social Security, arguably the most important program in the country as more than 42 million retired workers receive a monthly payout, is in trouble.

Yes, Social Security indeed is in trouble, but not because of any shortfall in cash. Rather trouble lurks because the President and Congress want to screw you, on behalf of the rich, who run this country.

According to the 2017 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees, Social Security is expected to begin paying out more in benefits than it’s generating in revenue by 2022.

Just 12 years later, in 2034, the roughly $3 trillion in excess cash held by the program is forecast to be completely gone.

Based on the current payout trajectory, there’ll be an estimated $12.5 trillion budget shortfall between 2034 and 2091.

All of the above nonsense would be true if Social Security were a private enterprise, owned and operated by a private company — a monetarily non-sovereign company.

But it is absurd nonsense when describing an agency owned an operated by the United States government — a uniquely Monetarily Sovereign entity.

The federal government created from thin air, the laws that in turn created the very first dollars, also out of thin air. Today, it continues to own the laws that allow it to create dollars at will, simply by paying bills.

For that reason, the federal government needs no “revenue.” It always pays its bills by creating new dollars.

Think about this for a moment:

Federal spending has risen 37,500% (from $40 billion to $15 trillion) since 1940. Where did the $14, 960,000,000 additional dollars come from?

They can’t have come from federal borrowing. Where would those borrowed dollars have come from?

And the new dollars can’t have come from taxes. Tax dollars already exist.

Dollars are created in two ways and destroyed in two ways:

Created: Lenders create new dollars when they lend, and the federal government creates new dollars when it spends.

Destroyed: Dollars are destroyed when loans are paid down, and when the federal government collects taxes.

When the federal government pays an invoice, it sends instructions (in the form of a check or wire) to the creditor’s bank, instructing the bank to increase the balance in the creditor’s checking account.

The instant the creditor’s bank does as instructed, new dollars are added to the nation’s money supply. Thus, because the federal government creates dollars by spending, it never can run short of dollars.

This shortfall has a lot of people, including working Americans, pre-retirees, retired workers, people with disabilities, and survivors, very concerned.

Americans are concerned because writers like Sean Williams tell them to be concerned. The people seldom are told the facts, so in the absence of facts, the people believe the lies.

There’s good reason for that, as 62% of today’s retirees lean on Social Security for at least half of their monthly income, and a majority of future retirees are expected to rely on the program in some capacity to make ends meet.

Yet, the trustees’ report suggests that benefits could be cut across the board by up to 23% in order to preserve the solvency of the program through 2091.

How sweet. The people desperately need Social Security, while the lying politicians prepare excuses for cutting this already insufficient lifeline.

What sort of cruel minds would find this acceptable?

The silver lining is that Social Security can’t go bankrupt as a result of the payroll tax, which provides the bulk of its funding; but that doesn’t mean the current payout schedule is sustainable.

A lie. Social Security payouts are infinitely sustainable. The pols and the rich don’t want you to know that the federal government never can run short of its own sovereign currency — the currency it originally created by writing laws.

The only option for current and future retirees to avoid having their Social Security benefits slashed is through congressional action.

Yes, Congress and the President can set Social Security benefits and FICA taxes at any levels they choose. The first step should be to eliminate the FICA tax altogether, while increasing benefits.

Lawmakers in Washington, D.C., certainly aren’t denying that a problem exists. Unfortunately, they’ve been unable to come to an amicable solution.

However, a new Social Security proposal, laid out last week by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), is aiming to change that.

They are “unable” to come up with an “amicable” solution (i.e. a solution that would be approved by rich donors), simply because they don’t want a real solution.

They only want a “solution” that will further widen the Gap between the rich and the rest, exactly what their rich donors tell them to do.

Known as the Stronger Safety Net (SSN) Act, Murray’s proposal aims to modernize the 83-year-old program for women, children, people with disabilities, and survivors, while at the same time having those who can afford to pay more cover the long-term funding gap in the program.

“Modernize” is one of those deceptive words, like “reform” that implies improvement but actually means nothing.

Making anyone pay more does absolutely nothing to “cover the long-term funding gap.” It takes dollars from the private sector (aka, the economy), which is recessive.

The SSN Act has four key proposals.

1. Divorced people over 62 who were married for at least five years would qualify, with a 10% step-down for each year below 10. A divorced person who was married for seven years would have a maximum spousal benefit of 70%, whereas someone who was married for nine years could max out at 90%.

Women often take care of children or loved ones who are sick. This means they take time out of the labor force, which can reduce their lifetime earnings and retirement benefit.

All this cockamamie rejiggering is “necessary” because of the myth that FICA pays for benefits and dollars are limited. The entire problem could be solved by simply giving every recipient the same, more-generous benefit. (See: Ten Steps to Prosperity: Step 3: Monthly bonuses for all)

2. Establish an alternative benefit for the surviving spouse where both husband and wife are retired workers.

The surviving spouse would be entitled to 75% of the sum of the survivor’s own work benefit and the primary insurance amount of the deceased spouse. This alternative benefit would be paid if it’s higher than what survivors would receive under the current law, and would begin in 2019.

More cockamamie rejiggering. Who could understand such nonsense, much less justify it? 

The process resembles trying to feed a hundred people from one potato, by cutting the potato into a thousand pieces.

3. Under the current system, minor children have to be under the age of 18, or high school students under the age of 19, to qualify for benefits. But beginning in 2019, full-time students up to the age of 23 of retired, disabled, or deceased workers would be eligible to receive benefits.

Why age 18? 19? 23? Murray has no idea. It’s a complexity no one understands and no one needs.

Which leads us to this:

4. The SSN Act seeks to generate additional revenue for the Social Security Trust by imposing a 2% payroll tax on earned income in excess of $400,000. The current payroll tax of 12.4% does not apply to any income above $128,400.

The mythical Social Security “Trust Fund” doesn’t need additional revenue, especially since it is an accounting deception.

A Monetarily Sovereign nation can add to or subtract from any so-called “trust fund” at will. It’s all hocus pocus, smoke and mirrors, to make you believe the government can’t afford your benefits.

That said, taxing the rich to narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest is a good idea, even though those tax dollars disappear from the money supply.

The single most important problem in our economy and the world’s economies is the large and growing Gap between the rich and the rest.

I know what you’re probably thinking: “The rich aren’t reliant on Social Security, so they should pay extra tax to shore up the Social Security Trust.”

However, the $128,400 figure in 2018 — exists because there’s also a maximum monthly payout at full retirement age. It’s not “fair” to add a 2% payroll tax to an extra, say, $5 million in income if that individual won’t see an extra cent in Social Security benefits.

That’s not what I’m thinking. I’m thinking:

  1. The mythical “Trust Fund” doesn’t need “shoring up.” It needs to be eliminated as an excuse for not paying benefits.
  2. The government should increase benefits
  3. The benefits should be paid to every man, woman, and child in America.
  4. Taxing the rich more would narrow the Gap and benefit America (See: Ten Steps to Prosperity: Step 8: Tax the very rich more (dictatorship warning)

It’s unlikely that Republicans would go along with such a measure, and their votes will be needed in the Senate to pass the SSN Act.

I may be wrong, but I do not remember the Republican Party (the party of the rich) passing any legislation that was not designed to widen the Gap.

Undoubtedly, you have been told that Social Security (or Medicare, for that matter) will soon run short of money, and the “trust fund” will be empty.

And undoubtedly, you have been told your taxes must be increased and/or your benefits must be decreased.

And you will hear it from reliable sources with impeccable credentials:

The politicians, who have been bribed with campaign contributions and promises of lucrative employment when they leave office.

And the economists who have been bribed with university contributions and lucrative jobs with think tanks.

And the media, who are owned by the rich and have been bribed with advertising dollars.

It all is a lie, the biggest lie in economics. It is The Big Lie. So, next time you hear it, contact the liars and tell them you know: It’s a damnable lie paid for by the rich to widen the Gap between the rich and you.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty
Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The most important problems in economics involve the excessive income/wealth/power Gaps between the have-mores and the have-less.

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.

Implementation of The Ten Steps To Prosperity can narrow the Gaps:

Ten Steps To Prosperity:
1. ELIMINATE FICA (Ten Reasons to Eliminate FICA )
Although the article lists 10 reasons to eliminate FICA, there are two fundamental reasons:
*FICA is the most regressive tax in American history, widening the Gap by punishing the low and middle-income groups, while leaving the rich untouched, and
*The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, neither needs nor uses FICA to support Social Security and Medicare.
2. FEDERALLY FUNDED MEDICARE — PARTS A, B & D, PLUS LONG TERM CARE — FOR EVERYONE (H.R. 676, Medicare for All )
This article addresses the questions:
*Does the economy benefit when the rich can afford better health care than can the rest of Americans?
*Aside from improved health care, what are the other economic effects of “Medicare for everyone?”
*How much would it cost taxpayers?
*Who opposes it?”
3. PROVIDE A MONTHLY ECONOMIC BONUS TO EVERY MAN, WOMAN AND CHILD IN AMERICA (similar to Social Security for All) (The JG (Jobs Guarantee) vs the GI (Guaranteed Income) vs the EB (Economic Bonus)) Or institute a reverse income tax.
This article is the fifth in a series about direct financial assistance to Americans:

Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Employer of Last Resort is a bad idea. Sunday, Jan 1 2012
MMT’s Job Guarantee (JG) — “Another crazy, rightwing, Austrian nutjob?” Thursday, Jan 12 2012
Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Jobs Guarantee is like the EU’s euro: A beloved solution to the wrong problem. Tuesday, May 29 2012
“You can’t fire me. I’m on JG” Saturday, Jun 2 2012

Economic growth should include the “bottom” 99.9%, not just the .1%, the only question being, how best to accomplish that. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) favors giving everyone a job. Monetary Sovereignty (MS) favors giving everyone money. The five articles describe the pros and cons of each approach.
4. FREE EDUCATION (INCLUDING POST-GRAD) FOR EVERYONE Five reasons why we should eliminate school loans
Monetarily non-sovereign State and local governments, despite their limited finances, support grades K-12. That level of education may have been sufficient for a largely agrarian economy, but not for our currently more technical economy that demands greater numbers of highly educated workers.
Because state and local funding is so limited, grades K-12 receive short shrift, especially those schools whose populations come from the lowest economic groups. And college is too costly for most families.
An educated populace benefits a nation, and benefitting the nation is the purpose of the federal government, which has the unlimited ability to pay for K-16 and beyond.
5. SALARY FOR ATTENDING SCHOOL
Even were schooling to be completely free, many young people cannot attend, because they and their families cannot afford to support non-workers. In a foundering boat, everyone needs to bail, and no one can take time off for study.
If a young person’s “job” is to learn and be productive, he/she should be paid to do that job, especially since that job is one of America’s most important.
6. ELIMINATE FEDERAL TAXES ON BUSINESS
Businesses are dollar-transferring machines. They transfer dollars from customers to employees, suppliers, shareholders and the federal government (the later having no use for those dollars). Any tax on businesses reduces the amount going to employees, suppliers and shareholders, which diminishes the economy. Ultimately, all business taxes reduce your personal income.
7. INCREASE THE STANDARD INCOME TAX DEDUCTION, ANNUALLY. (Refer to this.) Federal taxes punish taxpayers and harm the economy. The federal government has no need for those punishing and harmful tax dollars. There are several ways to reduce taxes, and we should evaluate and choose the most progressive approaches.
Cutting FICA and business taxes would be a good early step, as both dramatically affect the 99%. Annual increases in the standard income tax deduction, and a reverse income tax also would provide benefits from the bottom up. Both would narrow the Gap.
8. TAX THE VERY RICH (THE “.1%) MORE, WITH HIGHER PROGRESSIVE TAX RATES ON ALL FORMS OF INCOME. (TROPHIC CASCADE)
There was a time when I argued against increasing anyone’s federal taxes. After all, the federal government has no need for tax dollars, and all taxes reduce Gross Domestic Product, thereby negatively affecting the entire economy, including the 99.9%.
But I have come to realize that narrowing the Gap requires trimming the top. It simply would not be possible to provide the 99.9% with enough benefits to narrow the Gap in any meaningful way. Bill Gates reportedly owns $70 billion. To get to that level, he must have been earning $10 billion a year. Pick any acceptable Gap (1000 to 1?), and the lowest paid American would have to receive $10 million a year. Unreasonable.
9. FEDERAL OWNERSHIP OF ALL BANKS (Click The end of private banking and How should America decide “who-gets-money”?)
Banks have created all the dollars that exist. Even dollars created at the direction of the federal government, actually come into being when banks increase the numbers in checking accounts. This gives the banks enormous financial power, and as we all know, power corrupts — especially when multiplied by a profit motive.
Although the federal government also is powerful and corrupted, it does not suffer from a profit motive, the world’s most corrupting influence.
10. INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING ON THE MYRIAD INITIATIVES THAT BENEFIT AMERICA’S 99.9% (Federal agencies)Browse the agencies. See how many agencies benefit the lower- and middle-income/wealth/ power groups, by adding dollars to the economy and/or by actions more beneficial to the 99.9% than to the .1%.
Save this reference as your primer to current economics. Sadly, much of the material is not being taught in American schools, which is all the more reason for you to use it.

The Ten Steps will grow the economy, and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and you.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

 

Ignore the most misleading words in economics and the reasons for Trump’s import duties.

It takes only two things to keep people in chains:Image result for making something disappear
.

The ignorance of the oppressed
and the treachery of their leaders.

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The words are “debt” and “deficit.”

In our personal lives, we wish to avoid them, so we easily are gulled into believing the federal government should avoid them too.

Your Deficit and Debt
If you continually run a deficit, i.e. if your income is less than your spending, eventually you will need to borrow, at which time you will accumulate debt. And this debt will be a financial burden on you, because you must use future income to service it and pay it off.

The same is true of your city, your county, your state, and your business.  All are monetarily non-sovereign. None of you has a sovereign currency.

Your income, your deficit, and your debt all are denominated in U.S. dollars (or some other currency), which is the sovereign currency of the U.S. federal government.

You can run short of this currency, because it is not yours to create. That is the characteristic of a monetarily non-sovereign entity.

The Federal Government’s Deficit and Debt
The federal government’s finances are totally different from yours, and from your city’s, county’s, state’s, and business’s. The federal government is Monetarily Sovereign.

The federal government has the unlimited ability to create its sovereign currency, the dollar.

Originally, the government created, from thin air, the laws that created the original dollars, also from thin air.

Today, the federal government continues to create laws from thin air, and those laws allow the government to continue creating dollars, which it does, ad hoc, every time it pays a bill.

It is functionally impossible for the federal government, unintentionally, to run short of dollars. It creates them in unlimited amounts as needed.

For that reason, the federal government has no functional need to borrow. The so-called federal “debt” is not borrowing in the usual sense, but rather it is the federal government acceptance of deposits into Treasury security (T-security) accounts, which are quite similar to your interest-paying bank savings accounts.

When you “lend” to the federal government, you actually instuct your bank to debit your checking account and to deposit the dollars into your T-security account, where they remain until your T-security matures, and the dollars, plus interest, are returned to you.

The dollars remain in your account, because the federal government has neither need for, nor use of, them.

That is why federal spending increases the money supply (however defined). It creates brand new dollars when it pays its bills.

The Federal Deficit
The federal deficit is the difference between federal spending and federal revenues.  Current law requires the federal government to issue T-securities in an amount corresponding to federal deficits.

These laws were created when the federal government was on gold and silver standards. Back then, the federal government arbitrarily restricted its own money-creation abilities to match the values of gold or silver. Running short of gold and silver meant new dollars could not be created, which required borrowing dollars.

Now, being off any metal standard, borrowing no longer is necessary. The federal government does not need to issue Treasury securities. In fact, during times when the federal Treasury lacks buyers for its securities, it has another federal agency, the Federal Reserve buy them.

Wait! If the federal government does not need income, why does it continue to borrow and tax?

Why Does The Government Issue T-securities?
As said, U.S. government does not need income. Even if all tax revenue and every other sort of revenue fell to $0, the federal government could continue spending, forever.

But T-securities have some value to the federal government and to the world.

  1. They provide America and the world with a safe place to invest U.S. dollars, which reduces world financial risk and market gyrations.
  2. This safety provides demand for U.S. dollars, which benefits America’s businesses.
  3. T-securities assist the Federal Reserve in setting interest rates, which help control inflation.

Why Does The Federal Government Levy Taxes?
The federal government (unlike state and local governments) has no need for tax dollars. So why levy taxes?

  1. To some degree, taxes reduce inflation, by removing dollars from the economy. Though this is the effect of federal taxation, it is not how the federal government uses taxes. Federal taxes are too political, too slow, and too blunt an instrument for effective inflation control.
  2. Progressive taxes help reduce the Gap between the rich and the rest.
  3. To encourage or discourage certain actions. “Sin” taxes on alcohol and smoking are examples.

Do Deficits Cause Inflation?
Yes — and no.

Inflation is far more than just the Supply of Money. Inflation even is far more than the Demand for Money / the Supply of Money.

Inflation is the complex result of the current and predicted Demand and Supply of money vs. the Demand and Supply of goods and services.

In the past few decades, money Supply has not been an important determinant of inflation. That honor goes to oil.

Worldwide, and in America, the single most important determinant of inflation is the Supply and Demand for oil, which affects the Supply and Demand for goods and services.

Here are two pictures worth more than 1000 words;

Red line = deficit spending growth. Blue line = inflation growth

While federal money creation (as indicated by Federal Debt Held By The Public) has risen massively, since 1971 (the year in which the U.S. went off a gold standard), the consumer price index has risen moderately.

Or, looking at the same figures another way:

Shows percentage change from previous year.

It would be difficult to imagine more dissimilar graph lines than the debt and inflation lines. During periods of highest debt growth, inflation declined.  Contrary to popular wisdom, massive federal deficit spending has been very weakly related to inflation — if at all.

The Trade Deficit
There is another sort of deficit that the public doesn’t understand: The trade deficit.

Because the phrase “trade deficit” contains the word “deficit,” it easily is manipulated

Trump’s Duties On Steel And Aluminum
As with many things Trump, his statements are meant to take advantage of the public’s ignorance of federal finance.

On March 5, 2018, Trump said,

“We lost, over the last number of years, $800 billion a year. Not a half a million dollars, not 12 cents. We lost $800 billion a year on trade. Not going to happen. We got to get it back.”

Not only are his numbers wrong, but the entire concept is wrong. Let’s say you gave your son $25 to go your local grocery store and spend $25 on various products.Image result for paying at a store

Your family now has run a “trade deficit” with your local grocery store. Your son gave them $25 and they gave him groceries. Here are some questions about that transaction:

  1. How much did your family “lose” in that trade deficit.
  2. Should you demand that the grocery store buy $25 worth of goods and services from you so that you will have a balanced trade budget?
  3. Will you impose an import tax on the items your son buys from the grocery store, so they will be more expensive to him?

Nations generally are not injured by people in one nation buying what people in another nation sell (i.e. trade deficits). The sole exceptions might be if:

  1. Vital domestic industries are damaged by overseas competion.
  2. Vital security products might be unobtainable during a war.

In today’s world economy, these exceptions are quite rare. If domestic industries are not competitive, they probably are unsuitable for local production. And war-specific materials seldom (never?) are available only from one place.

In short, a trade deficit is not the negative some populist politicians make it out to be. In the instant case, steel and aluminum are imported from many nations, and their lower cost or physical superiority are of great benefit to the American public.

The notion that these products can compete with domestic products, despite a massive shipping disadvantage, says much about domestic production incompetence. Raising the prices of these products (via duties), will hurt American industry and workers.

If the federal government wished to aid American steel and aluminum producers, it more productively could pay them money. Giving them X dollars per ton would aid the domestic producers — and the federal government could afford it without any cost to taxpayers.

The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, can afford anything without any cost to taxpayers.

In summary, the words “debt” and “deficit” often are misused as pejoratives, when in fact, they are assets to the economy:

  1. The federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It never can run short of its own sovereign currency, the dollar. It does not need to levy taxes or to borrow to obtain the dollars it produces freely.
  2. Federal “debt” is nothing more than the total of dollars deposited in T-securities accounts.
  3. Millions of dollars in federal debt is paid off every day, simply by transferring dollars from those T-security accounts back to the checking accounts of the T-security owners. This involves no financial burden on the federal goverment or on federal taxpayers.
  4. The federal “debt,” which results  from federal “deficits,” is pro-growth, because federal deficits add dollars to the economy.
  5.  Trade “deficits” are an even exchange of money for goods and services. These exchanges are equally beneficial to both buyer and seller. No one “loses” by these exchanges.
  6. Trade deficits result when consumers of one nation purchase products of other nations either because these products are less costly or of better quality, than the same products produced domestically. This availability of cheaper or superior products benefits consumers.

Superior products entering the U.S. benefits the America. Dollars entering the U.S. do not benefit the U.S., because the U.S. already has the unlimited ability to create new dollars.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty
Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The most important problems in economics involve the excessive income/wealth/power Gaps between the have-mores and the have-less.

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.

Implementation of The Ten Steps To Prosperity can narrow the Gaps:

Ten Steps To Prosperity:
1. ELIMINATE FICA (Ten Reasons to Eliminate FICA )
Although the article lists 10 reasons to eliminate FICA, there are two fundamental reasons:
*FICA is the most regressive tax in American history, widening the Gap by punishing the low and middle-income groups, while leaving the rich untouched, and
*The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, neither needs nor uses FICA to support Social Security and Medicare.
2. FEDERALLY FUNDED MEDICARE — PARTS A, B & D, PLUS LONG TERM CARE — FOR EVERYONE (H.R. 676, Medicare for All )
This article addresses the questions:
*Does the economy benefit when the rich can afford better health care than can the rest of Americans?
*Aside from improved health care, what are the other economic effects of “Medicare for everyone?”
*How much would it cost taxpayers?
*Who opposes it?”
3. PROVIDE A MONTHLY ECONOMIC BONUS TO EVERY MAN, WOMAN AND CHILD IN AMERICA (similar to Social Security for All) (The JG (Jobs Guarantee) vs the GI (Guaranteed Income) vs the EB (Economic Bonus)) Or institute a reverse income tax.
This article is the fifth in a series about direct financial assistance to Americans:

Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Employer of Last Resort is a bad idea. Sunday, Jan 1 2012
MMT’s Job Guarantee (JG) — “Another crazy, rightwing, Austrian nutjob?” Thursday, Jan 12 2012
Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Jobs Guarantee is like the EU’s euro: A beloved solution to the wrong problem. Tuesday, May 29 2012
“You can’t fire me. I’m on JG” Saturday, Jun 2 2012

Economic growth should include the “bottom” 99.9%, not just the .1%, the only question being, how best to accomplish that. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) favors giving everyone a job. Monetary Sovereignty (MS) favors giving everyone money. The five articles describe the pros and cons of each approach.
4. FREE EDUCATION (INCLUDING POST-GRAD) FOR EVERYONE Five reasons why we should eliminate school loans
Monetarily non-sovereign State and local governments, despite their limited finances, support grades K-12. That level of education may have been sufficient for a largely agrarian economy, but not for our currently more technical economy that demands greater numbers of highly educated workers.
Because state and local funding is so limited, grades K-12 receive short shrift, especially those schools whose populations come from the lowest economic groups. And college is too costly for most families.
An educated populace benefits a nation, and benefitting the nation is the purpose of the federal government, which has the unlimited ability to pay for K-16 and beyond.
5. SALARY FOR ATTENDING SCHOOL
Even were schooling to be completely free, many young people cannot attend, because they and their families cannot afford to support non-workers. In a foundering boat, everyone needs to bail, and no one can take time off for study.
If a young person’s “job” is to learn and be productive, he/she should be paid to do that job, especially since that job is one of America’s most important.
6. ELIMINATE FEDERAL TAXES ON BUSINESS
Businesses are dollar-transferring machines. They transfer dollars from customers to employees, suppliers, shareholders and the federal government (the later having no use for those dollars). Any tax on businesses reduces the amount going to employees, suppliers and shareholders, which diminishes the economy. Ultimately, all business taxes reduce your personal income.
7. INCREASE THE STANDARD INCOME TAX DEDUCTION, ANNUALLY. (Refer to this.) Federal taxes punish taxpayers and harm the economy. The federal government has no need for those punishing and harmful tax dollars. There are several ways to reduce taxes, and we should evaluate and choose the most progressive approaches.
Cutting FICA and business taxes would be a good early step, as both dramatically affect the 99%. Annual increases in the standard income tax deduction, and a reverse income tax also would provide benefits from the bottom up. Both would narrow the Gap.
8. TAX THE VERY RICH (THE “.1%) MORE, WITH HIGHER PROGRESSIVE TAX RATES ON ALL FORMS OF INCOME. (TROPHIC CASCADE)
There was a time when I argued against increasing anyone’s federal taxes. After all, the federal government has no need for tax dollars, and all taxes reduce Gross Domestic Product, thereby negatively affecting the entire economy, including the 99.9%.
But I have come to realize that narrowing the Gap requires trimming the top. It simply would not be possible to provide the 99.9% with enough benefits to narrow the Gap in any meaningful way. Bill Gates reportedly owns $70 billion. To get to that level, he must have been earning $10 billion a year. Pick any acceptable Gap (1000 to 1?), and the lowest paid American would have to receive $10 million a year. Unreasonable.
9. FEDERAL OWNERSHIP OF ALL BANKS (Click The end of private banking and How should America decide “who-gets-money”?)
Banks have created all the dollars that exist. Even dollars created at the direction of the federal government, actually come into being when banks increase the numbers in checking accounts. This gives the banks enormous financial power, and as we all know, power corrupts — especially when multiplied by a profit motive.
Although the federal government also is powerful and corrupted, it does not suffer from a profit motive, the world’s most corrupting influence.
10. INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING ON THE MYRIAD INITIATIVES THAT BENEFIT AMERICA’S 99.9% (Federal agencies)Browse the agencies. See how many agencies benefit the lower- and middle-income/wealth/ power groups, by adding dollars to the economy and/or by actions more beneficial to the 99.9% than to the .1%.
Save this reference as your primer to current economics. Sadly, much of the material is not being taught in American schools, which is all the more reason for you to use it.

The Ten Steps will grow the economy, and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and you.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY