Are you planning to vote for the end of Medicare and Social Security? These people are.

The Libertarians (also known as the Republican Party) want to cancel Medicare and Social Security under the guise of fiscal prudence and courage. The right wing has created a fake “debt crisis” and then invented a non-solution that requires exactly what they deny they want: The end of Medicare and Social Security. (See: Congressional Republicans Want Big Cuts to Social Security) Although Congress is accustomed to misleading statements and outright lies, nowhere are the lies piled deeper than the discussions of Medicare’s and Social Security’s impending “insolvency.” Let’s get something straight. The US government, being Monetarily Sovereign, cannot become insolvent. It has the infinite ability to create U.S. dollars. This means no agency of the U.S. government can become insolvent unless Congress and the President vote for insolvency. Look at this list of federal departments and agencies that cannot run short of money unless Congress and the President vote for insolvency. The list runs alphabetically from the U.S. AbilityOne Commission to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. There are 15 executive departments in the United States federal government, each of which is headed by a Cabinet member appointed by the President. The following is a list of the 15 executive departments:

Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs

In addition to these departments, there are over 430 federal agencies in the United States, including 9 executive offices, 259 executive department sub-agencies and bureaus, 66 independent agencies, 42 boards, commissions, and committees, and 11 quasi-official agencies. Not one of the departments, agencies, executive offices, sub-agencies, bureaus, boards, commissions, committees, and quasi-official agencies can or will run short of dollars unless that is what Congress and the President want. Who says so? How about:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.” Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Not many people realize that while state/local taxes pay for state/local spending, federal taxes pay for nothing. Rather than funding federal spending, the sole purposes of federal taxes are:
  1. To control the economy by taxing what the federal government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the federal government wishes to reward,
  2. To assure demand for the U.S. dollar by requiring dollars to be used in paying taxes and
  3. To fool the public into believing some benefits are unsustainable unless taxes are raised, which reduces benefits.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

Anyone who claims a federal “debt crisis” is ignorant about, or lying about, federal finances. There is no federal debt crisis. The Libertarians and their alter egos, the Republicans, are doing their best to provide you with false information. Here is a Libertarian article that could have been written by the Republicans:

Congress Is Trying To Avoid Taking Responsibility for the Debt Crisis It Created A fiscal commission might be a good idea, but it’s also the ultimate expression of Congress’ irresponsibility. ERIC BOEHM | 11.29.2023 2:30 PM

It’s inaccurate to say that no one in Congress wants to talk about the national debt and the federal government’s deteriorating fiscal condition.

How can the federal government, which as you’ve just read, has the infinite ability to create dollars, have a deteriorating fiscal condition”? It can’t. It’s like claiming the world’s oceans have a deteriorating liquid condition, or the universe has a deteriorating atomic condition. The lie about “deteriorating fiscal condition” forms the basis for the rest of the lies.

Indeed, during Wednesday morning’s meeting of the House Budget Committee, there was a lot of talk about exactly that.

“Runaway deficit-spending and our unsustainable national debt threatens not only our economy, but our national security, our way of life, our leadership in the world, and everything good about America’s influence,” said Rep. Jodey Arrington (R–Texas), the committee’s chairman.

Rep. Jodey Arrington either is stupendously ignorant or stupendously lying. The phrase “unsustainable national debt” consists of three words, all three of which are lies.
  1. “Unsustainable”: Interestingly, this word never is explained by those who use it incessantly. I suspect it means something like this: Federal finances are like personal finances. If your expenses are larger than your income, eventually, you won’t be able to pay your bills, so your debt will be “unsustainable.”The problem is that the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign while you are monetarily non-sovereign, which is totally different. You can run short of money. The federal government cannot.
  2. “National” This has to do with Treasury Securities, which indeed are national or federal. The federal government is the sole authority to issue T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds. However, the owner of those T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds is not the federal government. When someone or some nation buys a T-security, their dollars go into their T-security account. Those dollars remain the property of the buyer.They never are owned by the federal government. When the T-security reaches maturity, the dollars are returned to their owner. Think of a bank safe-deposit box. The bank never owns the contents. It holds them for safekeeping and returns the contents to the owner. The government’s storage of unused dollars for safekeeping, stabilizes the dollar.
  3. “Debt” relates to the mistaken claim that T-securities represent borrowing. But our Monetarily Sovereign government, with its infinite ability to create dollars, never borrows dollars. The only dollars the federal government ever owes are the dollars it uses to pay for things. Those dollars are paid in a timely fashion by a government that has the infinite ability to create dollars. There is no long-term buildup of federal “debt.”

He pointed to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections showing that America’s debt, as a share of the size of the nation’s economy, is now as large as it was at the end of the Second World War—and that interest payments on the debt will soon cost more than the entire military budget.

The above paragraph refers to the infamous and much-misunderstood Debt/GDP ratio. It is a meaningless ratio that tells nothing and predicts nothing about a Monetarily Sovereign nation’s finances. A high or low ratio does not indicate solvency, growth, or any other financial factor. It is entirely useless. The so-called “Debt” (that isn’t a real debt) is the net total of all T-securities purchased and still outstanding for the past 10 years. They are not a burden on the federal government, which merely returns the dollars it holds for the owners when the security matures. By contrast, GDP is a one-year (or less) total of America’s (not just the federal government’s) spending. The formula for GDP is:

GDP = Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending + Net Exports

Comparing federal “Debt” to GDP is worse than comparing your 10-year income to the federal government’s spending this week: It is meaningless. The sole purpose of this comparison is to fool you into believing the federal government is running short of the dollars it has the infinite ability to create.

What’s missing, however, is any sense that Congress is willing to turn those words into action. Just look at the premise of Wednesday’s hearing: “Examining the need for a fiscal commission.”

Yes, it was a meeting about possibly forming a committee to discuss perhaps doing something to address the problem. In fact, it was the second such committee hearing in front of the House Budget Committee within the past few weeks.

It seems like there ought to be a more direct way to address this. , say, if a committee already existed within Congress was charged with handling budgetary issues. A House Budget Committee, perhaps.

But instead of using Wednesday’s meeting to seek consensus on how to solve the federal government’s budgetary problems, lawmakers debated a series of bills that aim to let Congress offload that responsibility to a special commission.

Unlike you, me, local governments, and businesses, the federal government’s only true “budgetary problem” is to decide where it wishes to spend its infinite hoard of dollars. While you et al. must worry about the availability of dollars, the federal government has no such constraints. It creates dollars by spending dollars. This is the process:
  1. When the federal government buys something and receives an invoice, it sends to the seller’s bank instructions (not dollars), instructing the bank to increase the balance in the seller’s checking account.
  2. When the bank does as instructed, new dollars are created and added to the M2 money supply measure.
  3. The instructions then are approved by the Federal Reserve, an agency of the federal government.
In short, the federal government creates dollars by spending dollars, and this creation is approved by the Federal Reserve, an agency of the federal government. The federal government creates the laws that approve its money-creation process. Being Monetarily Sovereign, the federal government can create any money-related laws it wishes, which is why no federal agency can run short of dollars unless the federal government wants it to run short. Federal agencies are not supported by federal taxes; they are supported by federal money creation. Medicare and Social Security can run short of dollars only if that is what Congress and the President want.

What that commission would look like and how its recommendations would be handled will depend on which proposal (if any of them) eventually becomes law—and even that seems somewhat unlikely, with Democrats voicing their opposition to the idea throughout Wednesday’s hearing.

To be fair, there are plenty of good arguments for why a fiscal commission might be the best way for Congress to fix the mess that it has made. It is an idea that’s certainly worthy of being considered, even if the whole exercise seems a little bit over-engineered.

All this blah, blah, blah is meant to disguise one simple fact: The rich, who run the U.S.  government, want to cut benefits for the middle and lower-income groups. Here is why:
  1. “Rich” is a comparative. A man owning a million dollars is rich if everyone else has a thousand dollars. But a man owning a million dollars is poor if everyone else has a hundred million dollars. During the Great Depression, anyone earning $20,000 a year was rich. Today, that salary would mark him as poor.
  2. To become richer requires widening the income/wealth/power Gap below you and narrowing the Gap above you.
  3. The rich always want to be richer, i.e.,  to widen the Gap below them.
  4. Because Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare, and all aid to the poor help narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest, the rich repeatedly try to eliminate all such benefits (while giving tax loopholes to the rich).
  5. Under the guise of fiscal responsibility, the right-wing makes unending efforts to cut the federal deficit spending that benefits those who are not rich (while continuing to run deficits that benefit the rich).

Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute, argues persuasively in her Substack that a fiscal commission is the best way to overcome the political hurdles that prevent Congress from taking meaningful action on borrowing and entitlement costs (which are driving a sizable portion of future deficits).

And there it is, the true purpose of a “fiscal commission” is to cut spending on so-called “entitlements” (i.e. Medicare and Social Security.) All the lies about Social Security and Medicare “trust funds” running short of dollars are to make you compliant with the Republican effort to make you poorer and the rich, richer. What you may not realize, these so called “trust funds” aren’t even trust funds.  To quote from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation web site:
A federal trust fund is an accounting mechanism used by the federal government to track earmarked receipts (money designated for a specific purpose or program) and corresponding expenditures. The largest and best-known trust funds finance Social Security, portions of Medicarehighways and mass transit, and pensions for government employees. Federal trust funds bear little resemblance to their private-sector counterparts, and therefore the name can be misleading. A “trust fund” implies a secure source of funding. However, a federal trust fund is simply an accounting mechanism used to track inflows and outflows for specific programs. In private-sector trust funds, receipts are deposited and assets are held and invested by trustees on behalf of the stated beneficiaries. In federal trust funds, the federal government does not set aside the receipts or invest them in private assets. Rather, the receipts are recorded as accounting credits in the trust funds, and then combined with other receipts that the Treasury collects and spends. Further, the federal government owns the accounts and can, by changing the law, unilaterally alter the purposes of the accounts and raise or lower collections and expenditures.
Thus, the federal government can do whatever it wishes with the “trust funds.” It can add to them, subtract from them, or change them from the wrongly presumed mission of supporting federal expenditures. At the click of a computer key or the passage of a law, the balance in the federal “trust funds” could be changed to $100 trillion or $0, and neither would affect taxpayers. Thus, the notion that any federal “trust funds” are, as the right wing claims, “in trouble,” is a lie, unless “trouble” comes from those who don’t wish you to understand the differences between the private sector’s real trust funds vs. the federal government’s phony “trust funds.”

Boccia’s preferred solution would allow the commission’s proposals to be “self-executing unless Congress objects,” meaning that legislators would have the “political cover to vocally object to reforms that will create inevitable winners and losers, without re-election concerns undermining an outcome that’s in the best interest of the nation.”

This would be the Republican’s way of saying, “Don’t blame us for cutting your Social Security. It was the commission that did it.”

It’s probably true that Congress itself is the biggest hurdle to managing the federal government’s fiscal situation. Unfortunately, that’s also the biggest reason to be skeptical: any decisions made by a fiscal commission will only be as good as Congress’ willingness to abide by them.

President Obama, of all people, tried this with the notorious Simpson/Bowles Commission, which made exactly the recommendations expected of it. Fortunately, America learned the plot, and the commission’s recommendations never were implemented. The commission’s recommendations included increasing the Social Security retirement age, cuts to military, benefit, and domestic spending, restricting or eliminating certain tax credits and deductions, and increasing the federal gasoline tax. The Simpson-Bowles proposal would have cut entitlement and social safety net programs, including Social Security and Medicare, which was opposed by critics on the left, such as Democratic Representative Jan Schakowsky (a Commission member) and economist Paul Krugman.

There’s no secret knowledge about reducing deficits that will only be unlocked by bringing together a collection of legislators and private sector experts, which is what most of the bills to create a commission propose doing.

Federal deficit spending is necessary for economic growth. Deficit reduction leads to recessions, which then are cured by deficit increases.
When federal deficits decline (red line). We have recessions (vertical gray bars), which are cured by increases in federal deficits.
One would think that repeatedly seeing the same effect — nine consecutive recessions caused by deficit reduction, 9 successive recessions cured by deficit increases — our leaders eventually would realize that far from being a bad thing, federal deficits are necessary. The ignorant have been claiming for more than 80 years that the federal budget is “unsustainable” and a “ticking time bomb.” Read a list of some such claims here. In all those years, much to the consternation of the ignorant, the ticking time bomb never has exploded.

Congress should hold hearings, invite experts to share their views, draft proposals, vet those ideas through the committee process, and then put the resulting bills on the House floor for a full vote.

Shielding Congress from the electoral consequences of making poor fiscal decisions doesn’t seem to improve budget-making quality. We need Congress to be held more accountable for this mess.

No, we need our leaders to be held accountable for disseminating the lie that federal deficits are harmful. Here is what happens when we ignore the fundamental truth that federal deficits are a blessing, not a curse: Every depression in U.S. history began with a reversal of federal deficit creation:

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

Here is what should be done: Step 1. Call it what it really is. Rather than talking about a federal “debt,” we should talk about the economy’s income. The misnamed “debt” is income for the economy. It’s money flowing from the infinitely wealthy federal government into the economy that needs and uses the money for growth. Step 2. Rather than instituting a commission to cut private sector income, thus causing recessions and depressions, America should create a plan to improve the lives of our people. Use the infinite money-creation power of the federal government to:
  • Fund public education about the benefits of Monetary Sovereignty
  • Fund a comprehensive, no-deductible Medicare for every man, woman, and child in America.
  •  for the homeless
  • Fund college for everyone in America who wants an advanced degree.
  • Fund Social Security benefits for every man, woman, and child in America.
  • Eliminate FICA, which funds nothing but is America’s most regressive tax.
  • Fund various research projects, including medical, physical, psychological, and environmental.
  • Fund long-term care
  • Fund housing
  • Fund childcare for working families.
And fund all the other projects that would benefit the public and narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest.

A $33 trillion national debt didn’t come crashing out of the sky like an asteroid that couldn’t be avoided.

“No responsible leader can look at the rapid deterioration of our balance sheet, the CBO projection of these unsustainable deficits, and the long-term unfunded liabilities of our nation and not feel compelled to intervene and change course,” Arrington said Wednesday.

He’s right, but that only draws a line under the contradiction. A responsible Congress would be working on a serious plan to get the deficit under control. Instead, the Budget Committee is working on proposals to avoid doing that.

The article ends with ignorance and lies. Contrary to the above statements, the facts are:
  1. The federal government’s balance sheet is not “deteriorating.”
  2. Deficits are necessary, not “unsustainable.”
  3. All federal liabilities are funded by the federal government’s infinite ability to create sovereign currency.
Finally, if you vote for the right-wing here is a letter you may wish to send to your children and grandchildren:

Dear Loved Ones

I sincerely apologize for electing people who fouled your water, your earth, and your air, cut Social Security, cut Medicare, cut Obamacare, increased your taxes, lied about COVID and vaccinations, and did nothing to improve the lives of all (except the rich, who were well rewarded).

I also apologize for electing a Hitler clone who admitted he would arrest everyone disagreeing with him and give all the nation’s wealth to those who already are wealthy.

I could claim ignorance, but to be honest, I was warned about what would happen. I guess I yielded to my hatred of blacks, browns, yellows, reds, Jews, Muslims, women, the poor, immigrants, and gays. 

I should have learned about Monetary Sovereignty, but I was so busy denying the danger of guns and the attempted coup I had neither the time nor the inclination to learn anything.

Perhaps you will be wiser.

I hope you will forgive me for the miserable, ignorant, hate-filled world I have left for you.

But at least the very rich are very happy.

  Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

A better way to budget federal spending: The only sensible way.

Infinity is a big number. It’s so big you can’t even visualize it, much less count it.
Night Sky Images | Free HD Backgrounds, PNGs, Vectors & Templates - rawpixel
The federal government has more dollars than there are atoms in the universe.
Infinity is bigger than all the atoms in all the molecules in all the dust grains in the entire universe, which is estimated to be 10^82 — that’s 1 with 82 zeros behind it — way bigger. It’s bigger than a googol, which is 10^100, which is one followed by one hundred zeros. Infinity is bigger than a centillion, which is one followed by six hundred zeros, and bigger even than a googolplex, ten^googol. I mention these staggering numbers, all of which are far smaller than infinity, to give you an idea of the U.S. federal government’s capability, which is this: The U.S. government can create infinite U.S. dollars any time it chooses, merely by deciding to do so.

Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve Chairman: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Scott Pelley (60 Minutes): Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

Given that infinite capability, the U.S. government cannot run short of dollars, no matter how many it spends, how little it taxes, or how big its deficits are. Even if the federal government levied zero taxes, it could continue spending forever (the same as infinity, but on a time scale). And what is true for the U.S. government also is true for any agency of the U.S. government. The Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Space Force, the Senate, the House, the White House, the Supreme Court, Medicare, Social Security, and all the other 1000+ agencies of the federal government — none of them can run short of dollars unless that is the desire of the President and Congress. So why do we concern ourselves with meaningless concepts such as federal deficits, debt, and borrowing when determining how much to spend on various projects? Why do we talk about “affordability” and “sustainability”? Everything is affordable and sustainable for an entity with access to infinite (more than a googolplex) dollars, and there never is a reason to borrow. With affordability, sustainability, and borrowing off the table, what criteria should the government use to plan expenditures? Need and effect are the only criteria that have a purpose. Take any federal agency, for instance, the House of Representatives: How much money does the House need to run most efficiently, and what are the overall effects of giving them that money? Or think about America’s healthcare. How much money would a comprehensive, no-deductible Medicare plan covering every man, woman, and child in America need, and what would be the overall effect of providing that money? The U.S. government can “afford” and “sustain” any numbers you can mention without either borrowing or taxing. Just press those computer keys Ben Bernanke mentioned. Social Security for All: How much money is needed to eliminate poverty, hunger, homelessness, and most crime in America? Develop a number and press those computer keys. Or education: How much money is needed to provide everyone with the education they desire, whether it be high school, college, advanced degree, or research facility? There are no financial limitations. So, what are the limitations? Planning, know-how, and labor. We need to know how to spend those unlimited dollars to achieve our goals, and we need enough educated labor to make it all happen. Despite the bleating and moaning about deficits and debt, money truly is no object. We can do it all, and now, with AI (Artificial Intelligence), our capabilities have expanded massively. We really can create a paradise on earth. Of course, when all objections have been satisfied, we come to the last refuge of the debt worriers: Inflation. They tell you that if the government spends “too much,” we’ll have inflation. That is what many people have been taught to believe, despite one small fact: Historically, there is no relationship between federal spending and inflation.
In the massive inflation years of the late 1970s, federal spending ranged between $300 Billion and $700 Billion annually.
In the massive inflation years of the late 1970s, federal spending ranged between $300 Billion and $700 Billion annually. In the 1980s, while inflation dropped to 2% and below, federal spending kept rising, reaching a high of $6 Trillion annually, still with low inflation. Then suddenly came the COVID shortages, and just as suddenly, inflation rose to 8%+. Now, as federal spending continues at massive levels and shortages decline, inflation, too is coming down. The reason: Inflation, far from being a result of federal spending, is the result of national shortages, most often shortages of oil and/or food. The famous Zimbabwe inflation was caused by a food shortage. The government took farmland from farmers and gave it to non-farmers. Government spending was an inept follow-up to the already existing inflation. Had the government spent to aid production and acquisition of food, there would have been no inflation. Argentina: Food, clothing, and, surprisingly, energy shortages caused by the Russia/Ukraine war. America: COVID-caused shortages of oil, food, shipping, computer parts, metals, lumber, labor, and other essentials. Before COVID, inflation was near zero despite massive federal spending for many years. Then came COVID, and its shortages caused inflation to hit double digits. SUMMARY Congress, the media, and even economists worry about government spending when they should worry about private sector needs. That is the fundamental purpose of government — to provide the private sector with what the private sector needs. Worrying about spending is a reasonable approach for households, businesses, and local governments, all monetarily non-sovereign. They do not have the infinite ability to create dollars. They can, and often do, run short of money. They require taxes and borrowing to remain solvent. By contrast, this approach is wrongheaded for our Monetarily Sovereign federal government, which can create money and needs neither taxes nor borrowing to remain solvent. As I write this, the federal government is about to shut down over worries, not about economic needs but about federal spending, the exact opposite of what the government should consider. The Republicans have forgotten about needs. The Democrats consider needs but are hypnotized by the false analogies with household finances. The situation today resembles a billionaire refusing a life-saving cancer medicine because it costs $1 per year. Nonsensical. I look forward to the day when people understand that federal money is an unlimited resource. If used correctly, it will solve most problems facing this nation and create a paradise on earth. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Ignorance or Lies? The single worst economic scare-mongering bullshit ever encountered.

J.D. Tuccille, the Libertarians, and surprisingly, the highly respected University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton School may have set a world record for utter nonsense and wrongheaded scaremongering Moving on from the “ticking debt time bomb” that never explodes, we have arrived at “20 Years to Disaster.” Don’t you love predictions of 20 years? They are so safe. You can’t be proved wrong. Twenty 20 years from now, the world will have changed many times, and anyway, no one will remember what you said. Aside from the idiocy of making a 20-year economic prediction, the entire premise of the article is wrong.

20 Years to Disaster The United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt.” J.D. TUCCILLE | 11.6.2023 7:00 AM

For decades, budgetary experts have warned that the U.S. federal government is backing itself—and the country—into a corner with expenditures that consistently exceed revenues, driving the national debt ever higher.

What Tuccille, the Libertarians, and the Wharton School seem not to understand is that federal deficits are absolutely necessary for economic growth. You have seen this graph many times: GRAPH I
Federal “Deficits” (red) and Gross Domestic Product (blue) rise in parallel.
And this graph: GRAPH II.
Before every recession (vertical gray bars), federal deficits (blue) decline. Then, to cure the recession, the government increases federal deficit spending.

The latest red flag is raised by the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), which says that the federal government has no more than 20 years to mend its ways. After this time, it will be too late to remedy the situation.

Every time the federal government “controls” (i.e. cuts) spending, we have recessions if we are lucky and depressions if we are not as fortunate:

U.S. depressions come on the heels of federal surpluses.

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

Having learned nothing from history, Tucille, the Libertarians, and Wharton continue the same old ignorance about federal deficit spending: They equate personal finances with our Monetarily Sovereign government’s finances, not recognizing the massive differences between the two. While monetarily, non-sovereign entities like you and me need to run balanced budgets over the long term, or we’ll face bankruptcy, the federal government must never run a balanced budget and never will face bankruptcy.

20 Years to Control Spending

“Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation)” Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters, authors of the October 6 Penn Wharton Budget Model brief, write in summarizing their findings.

“Unlike technical defaults where payments are merely delayed, this default would be much larger and reverberate across the U.S. and world economies.”

To say that the above is 100% bullshit would be to insult bullshit. Here’s why:
    1. The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the infinite ability to create its sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar. It has infinite dollars with which to pay its bills. It never needs to default.
    2. Despite concerns about “debt monetization” (aka “money printing’) causing inflation, this never has happened to any nation in world history. All inflations have been caused by shortages of crucial goods and services, most often oil and food.
    3. Many years of massive U.S. federal deficits didn’t cause today’s inflation. Only when COVID caused shortages of oil, food, computer parts, shipping, metals, lumber, labor, etc., did inflation arise. Now, the government’s massive spending to prevent and cure recession continues while inflation ebbs. The massive federal spending has helped cure the shortages and thus cure the inflation.

The reason for worrying about accumulating deficits and the resulting growing debt, the authors explain, is that “government debt reduces economic activity by crowding out private capital formation and by requiring future tax increases or spending cuts to accommodate future interest payments.”

1. The historical fact that increasing government deficit spending increases economic activity (See Graph I, above) seems lost on the Wharton authors. Mathematically, GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports 2. There is no historical example of “crowding out of capital formation.” In fact, the federal money added to the economy increases the funds available to the private sector for capital formation. 3. Future tax increases are not necessary because federal taxes do not fund federal spending:

A. All federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt by the U.S. Treasury. The tax dollars come from the M2 money supply measure, but when they reach the Treasury, they become part of no money supply measure. The reason: The Treasury’s money supply, being infinite, cannot be measured.

B. Even if the federal government collected zero tax dollars, it could continue spending forever. It has the infinite ability to create spending dollars.

C. The purposes of federal taxes are not to fund federal spending but rather:

a. To control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.

b. To assure demand for and acceptance of the U.S. dollar by requiring taxes to be paid in dollars.

c. To fool the public (and presumably Wharton economists) into believing federal benefits require federal taxes. (This last purpose is promulgated by the rich to discourage the populace from demanding benefits that would narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest.)

If debt gets too big, lenders can’t be paid back, credibility is shot, the dollar loses value, and the economy tanks.

This is the oft-claimed “ticking time bomb” that never seems to explode. There never has been and never will be a time when the federal debt “gets too big” to be paid. Again, the Wharton economists demonstrate they don’t understand the differences between a Monetarily Sovereign government and a monetarily non-sovereign government.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

“It would be an unfettered economic catastrophe,” economists Joseph Brusuelas and Tuan Nguyen predicted earlier this year of such a scenario. “Our model indicates that unemployment would surge above 12% in the first six months, the economy would contract by more than 10%, triggering a deep and lasting recession, and inflation would soar toward 11% over the next year.”

Strange how history says exactly the opposite. Following many years of massive federal spending, unemployment was at historical lows. The reason: Federal spending stimulated GDP growth, which required more labor.

So long as investors believe federal officials will eventually balance their books, you have a grace period as debt grows—that is until the debt burden is so enormous that it crushes economic activity.

History shows that balancing the federal books creates recessions and depressions. The so-called “debt burden” is not debt, and it’s not a burden. It’s deposits into Treasury security bills, notes, and bond accounts which are owned by the depositors. It’s not debt because the government never touches the dollars in those accounts. The government creates dollars at will. It has no need to borrow dollars, and indeed, the U.S. federal government never borrows dollars. To “pay off” the debt (that isn’t debt), the government merely returns the dollars in the accounts to their owners. This is no burden at all. The purpose of T-securities is not to provide spending money to the government but rather to give the world with a safe, interest-paying place to store unused dollars. This makes the dollar an attractive international medium of exchange.

“Even with the most favorable of assumptions for the United States, PWBM estimates that a maximum debt-GDP ratio of 200 percent can be sustained,” the authors add. “This 200 percent value is computed as an outer bound using various favorable assumptions: a more plausible value is closer to 175 percent, and, even then, it assumes that financial markets believe that the government will eventually implement an efficient closure rule.” (That’s a mix of tax and spending changes to curtail deficits and debt.)

As we have demonstrated numerous times, the Debt/GDP ratio is meaningless. It tells nothing about the current or future health of an economy. It predicts nothing; it evaluates nothing. It is 100% meaningless. That is why economists who don’t understand the fundamentals of Monetary Sovereignty love to quote it.

The 20-year countdown assumes that investors remain optimistic about the willingness and ability of U.S. officials to bring spending in-line with tax revenues. “Once financial markets believe otherwise, financial markets can unravel at smaller debt-GDP ratios,” according to the PWBM analysis.

We suspect financial markets understand history better than the economists at Wharton. We suspect they know that when the federal government spends more, stock prices rise.
As federal deficit spending has increased, the value of corporate stock has risen.

As PWBM points out, “Financial markets demand a higher interest rate to purchase government debt as the supply of that debt increases… Forward-looking financial markets should demand an even higher return if they see debt increasing well into the future. Those higher borrowing rates, in turn, make debt grow even faster.”

That’s already happening.

Increasing Costs and a Looming Deadline To finance trillions of dollars in spending beyond what incoming revenue can support, the US Treasury is now issuing more debt in the form of Treasury securities than global financial markets can readily absorb,” Yahoo! Finance’s Rick Newman wrote on October 30.

“That forces the borrower—the US government—to pay higher interest rates, which in turn pushes up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in much of the Western world.”

Again, the Wharton experts misunderstand Monetary Sovereignty and the realities of federal financing. The federal government does not finance spending by borrowing (“issuing debt.”) It finances spending by creating dollars, ad hoc. It can allow as much or as little in T-security deposits as it wishes. If the public fails to invest as much as the Federal Reserve wishes (to stabilize the dollar), the Fed merely uses its infinite money creation ability to fill the gap. Federal spending never is constrained by the public’s desire to own T-securities. As for interest rates, the Fed sets them not to attract depositors but to control inflation. If the Fed smells inflation, it raises rates. If the inflation scare passes, the Fed lowers rates. This has nothing to do with any need for deposits into T-security accounts. (Sadly, raising interest rates, far from moderating inflation, exacerbates it by raising prices. The only thing that moderates inflation is federal spending to ease shortages of critical goods and services.)

Just when the U.S. federal government hits that magic unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio of between 175 and 200 percent depends on investor confidence and how much the markets charge to finance more borrowing. PWBM estimates it will happen between 2040 and 2045—if we’re lucky.

The notion of a “magic, unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio” is utter nonsense. Japan already has exceeded that meaningless ratio.

The U.S. Treasury concedes that “since 2001, the federal government’s budget has run a deficit each year. Starting in 2016, increases in spending on Social Security, health care, and interest on federal debt have outpaced the growth of federal revenue.”

The 2001 Clinton surplus caused the 2001 recession.  See Graph I.

Options for Fixing the Mess In September, PWBM explored three policy options to render fiscal policy less disastrous: increasing taxes on high incomes, reforms to Social Security and Medicare that reduce payouts and increase taxes, and a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.

Increasing taxes on high incomes would help narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest, which would be a good thing. It would do nothing to improve the federal government’s already infinite ability to pay its creditors. “Reforms” to Social Security and Medicare (i.e. cuts to benefits paid to those who need them most, while increasing taxes on those who can afford them least) also would do nothing to improve the federal government’s bill-paying ability. The “mix of tax increases and spending cuts” would take spending dollars from the private sector and cause a recession or depression.  Remember this equation: GDP = Federal + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Spending cuts and tax increases would decrease Federal + Nonfederal Spending, which would reduce GDP, i.e. cause a recession or depression. Simple mathematics.

The authors predict entitlement reforms and a mix of tax increases and spending cuts would both stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio, with entitlement reform allowing the greatest economic growth.

Hmmm. Giving the economy fewer Social Security and Medicare dollars and taking dollars from the economy by increasing taxes would “allow the greatest economic growth”???? Also, pouring water out of a bucket fills it??

The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank has tax revenues hitting 19 percent of GDP last year—the highest share in two decades. The IRS may scream about a “tax gap” between what is owed and what it collects, and lawmakers may supercharge the tax agency with funds, but fixing the federal government’s spendthrift ways by squeezing taxpayers won’t just be unpopular—it’s a scheme that defies historical trends.

Spending cuts and entitlement reforms will also elicit resistance. But at least they’re within reach of lawmakers who could spend no more than they collect—or even to run surpluses to pay down debt.

Twenty years to fix the federal budget should be plenty of time. But brace yourself. The record so far suggests it won’t be enough.

The above is so staggeringly ignorant one scarcely can believe it was written by humans. Indeed, it must have been written by an Artificial Intelligence gone rogue. Cuts to federal spending and tax increases do the same: They take dollars out of the economy and cause recessions and depressions. The Libertarian (aka anarchist) comments are not surprising. Anti-government ignorance is expected from them. But, if this is the best to come out of Wharton, heaven help its students. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The Reason.com fountain of disinformation

The difference between misinformation and disinformation is that the former can be accidental and unintentional, while the latter is intentional. While the Libertarian website, Reason.com, always has spewed wrong ideas, I have come to believe they now are well into the disinformation stage. In short, they have transitioned from loud-mouth, bar-stool buffoons to louder-mouth Tucker Carlson.
Trump's Indictment Start of a 'Political Purge,' Says Tucker Carlson – Rolling Stone
I admitted that even I don’t believe what I say. Why should you?
Here is the latest headline:

Reason.com – Free Minds and Free Markets Nobel Prize–Winning Economist: Democrats Are Committed ‘To Spending Other People’s Money’ Vernon Smith weighs in on Biden’s budget, how government causes inflation, and why bailing out Silicon Valley Bank was a bad idea. NICK GILLESPIE AND JUSTIN ZUCKERMAN | 3.29.2023 2:45 P

I caught up with the 96-year-old recently in Southern California and conducted a long interview about his life and work that will appear as a Reason podcast.

Here’s part of our conversation about President Joe Biden’s massive $6.8 trillion budget plan, the role of government spending and Federal Reserve policy in causing inflation, the bailout of Silicon Valley Bank, and why Smith believes “it’s very hard to keep Democrats [from] wanting to make the world better by spending other people’s money.

I must admit that the headline and the introductory paragraphs told me I would not be able to stomach listening to the entire drivel. Here are my comments based on just the above:
Alan Greenspan says US recession is likely | CNN Business
Greenspan: A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.
Starting with the simplest, there is no Nobel Prize in economics, nor should there be. It’s called The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. It’s like me injuring myself and awarding me the Rodger Mitchell medal in memory of the Military Order of the Purple Heart. Or, having taking some pictures at my family Thanksgiving dinner, I award myself the Mitchell Award for Best Picture in memory of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences Awards for Best Pictures. Also, there should be no real Nobel Prize in economics because economics has not yet graduated to science levels. It is a philosophy that lacks proof, but exists on intuition and belief. Sciences make verifiable predictions. Economics makes predictions that can’t be verified. They are little more than hunches. Economists are like stock market chartists with their “head and shoulders” graphs, histograms, and MACDs, all of which sound scientific but in reality are balderdash. “GOVERNMENT SPENDING CAUSING INFLATION” Next, there is no evidence that federal spending causes inflation. It is a common belief in economics circles, but it is based on the logical intuition that if you have more of something its value declines. Sadly, Facts don’t agree with intuition. Money is unlike other commodities. It always is in demand. If we have plenty of oil, we don’t use more. There becomes a surfeit that needs to be stored at a significant cost. The price goes down. When there is too much, production can’t be shut down in and instant; when there is a shortage, production can’t be started instantly. If we have plenty of food, we don’t begin to eat more. The extra must expensively be stored or allowed to rot. The the price goes down. When there is too much or too little, production can’t respond quickly. By contrast, the federal government quickly can produce more dollars when needed, simply by giving them away or spending them. In the unlikely event there ever are too many dollars, the government could tax them away. Another major reason why money is unique: If you have plenty of money, you still want more. Storage not only is free, but receives interest. The usual rules of supply and demand don’t operate. Having plenty of money does not reduce the price of money. It actually can increase the value of money, because investing opens new areas for more investing. That is why we see graphs like this:
There is no relationship between federal debt (red line) and inflation (blue line).
The peaks and valleys in the above graph do not match. There is no cause/effect relationship.
There is a strong relationship between inflation and oil supplies (green, as evidenced by oil prices).
The peaks and valleys match. There is a cause/effect relationship. “BAILOUT OF SILICON VALLEY BANK” The bailout of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVP) was necessary to prevent massive losses to the economy and to individual depositors.
Bernanke: Fed's slow response to inflation was 'mistake' | The Hill
Bernanke: The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the economy by being a measure of spending (GDP = Federal and Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports). Adding dollars to the economy increases GDP; taking dollars from the economy reduces GDP. Dollars held by banks are dollars in the economy as part of the M2 money supply measure. Allowing SVP depositors to lose money would reduce GDP, which would be recessionary. Gillespie and Zuckerman advocate punishing the bank and those responsible by allowing them to fail, the classic “cut one’s nose to spite one’s face” situation. Because banks operate under a profit motive, their leaders face the ongoing temptation to engage in higher-risk activities. When these activities fail, the banks, not having infinite funds with which to pay off depositors, fail. The prevention and cure is to have all banks owned by the federal government, an entity that is not motivated to take higher risks and has the infinite ability to pay depositors. There is no public purpose for banks to be privately owned. Bank depositors already are insured (up to $250,000) by the federal government. Federal ownership would expand that protection while decreasing risk. “SPENDING OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY” This pejorative trope, though often expressed, is based on the false notion that the federal government spends federal tax dollars. While state and local governments, being monetarily non-sovereign, do spend taxpayer dollars, the federal government operates differently.
Alan Greenspan says US recession is likely | CNN Business
Greenspan: There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.
Being Monetarily Sovereign, the federal government has the infinite ability to create dollars.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.” Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.” Alan Greenspan: “There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.” Alan Greenspan: “The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

The federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars. Even if it stopped collecting taxes, the federal government could continue spending forever. The primary purpose of federal taxes is to control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to encourage. A secondary purpose is to insure acceptance of US dollars by requiring them to be used for taxes and other payments. Reason.com, that Libertarian, anarchist organization, has become more far right-wing of late, and following in the Fox News / Tucker Carlson tradition, has resorted to exaggeration  and outright lies — i.e misinformation and disinformation — to push its anti-government agenda. The federal government is very good at one thing: Creating dollars. Thus it has no profit motive. Its motives revolve around its voter constituency. The more it can do to please its voters, the more votes it can acquire. The Republican constituency is the rich, and the Republicans know it. The Democrats’ constituency is the not-rich, but the Democrats don’t understand economics. So, despite creating such social programs as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and poverty-fighting plans, the Democrats repeatedly fall into the trap of not recognizing Monetary Sovereignty. Thus, they go along with the “can’t afford it” excuses for not implementing Medicare for All, Social Security for All, free college for all and other social programs that would benefit America. Meanwhile, the Libertarians join hands with the Republicans to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest. Disgraceful. The next time you read any Libertarian or Republican wish list, ask yourself, does this help the not-rich or does it widen the Gap between the rich and the rest? Then vote accordingly. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY