The fundamental lie of Libertarianism

“Libertarianism” says Robert W. Poole (Reason Magazine’s early editor) is “about more than just economics and politics, it really is. It’s about human flourishing and what are the conditions for human beings to have satisfying, flourishing [lives].” Money is power.
Hoover Institution Acquires the Archives of Reason Magazine Co-founder Robert W. Poole Jr. | Hoover Institution
Robert Poole, the voice of Libertarianism
The fundamental philosophy of Libertarians is that power should be with the people, not with the government. Yet Libertarians espouse exactly the opposite when they opt for tax increases and/or benefit decreases to reduce federal deficits. Keep that in mind as you read the following excerpts from an article written by a leading Libertarian. See whether you believe he believes the money and power should be with the people:

Endlessly expanded federal borrowing and spending is not a realistic long-term transportation future

By Robert Poole, Director of Transportation Policy, September 12, 2023

(Robert Poole is one of the founders of the Reason Foundation [which publishes Reason Magazine] and served as its president and CEO from 1978 to 2000.He is currently director of transportation policy at the Reason Foundation and frequently writes about issues related to privatization.)

The national debt will affect the future of transportation funding, and the public-private partnership community needs to understand why and what the implications for P3s may be.

The most recent parts of the story began on Aug. 1, when Fitch Ratings downgraded the federal government’s bond rating from AAA to AA+. For a company, that might not be a big deal, but for the government of the world’s largest economy, the downgrade was a shot across the bow.

This was the second time a rating agency took such an action with the federal government’s bond rating, with S&P doing so in 2011.

Headlines in the financial press, such as The Wall Street Journal’s “America’s Fiscal Time Bomb Ticks Louder” and “U.S. Downgrade Flashes Warning Sign.” indicate how seriously the downgrade should be taken.

The downgrades had nothing to do with the federal government’s ability to pay. They reflected the government’s willingness to pay, as evidenced by the ridiculous debt ceiling laws. Being Monetarily Sovereign, the federal government has the infinite ability to pay for anything. Mr. Poole confuses “ability”with “willingness.” We have written many times about the so-called fiscal “time bomb.” The first mention we noted was in 1940;

September 1940, the federal budget was a “ticking time-bomb which can eventually destroy the American system,” said Robert M. Hanes, president of the American Bankers Association.

Subsequently, references to the federal “debt” as a ticking time bomb appeared regularly in all media, from scholarly journals to daily newspapers. The 1940 mention came when the total federal “debt” was approximately $48 Billion. Today, that debt is roughly $26 Trillion, an astounding 54,000% increase.
Despite that increase, the “ticking time bomb” still has yet to explode, but the doomsday preachers, having learned nothing from the many years of experience, continue to fret. Eighty-three consecutive years of wrong predictions, and people still believe? What word comes to mind?

As the Journal’s Greg Ip wrote: One reason for Fitch’s downgrade was the absence of any political will to deal with the main drivers of the deficit: spending programs for older Americans, including Social Security and Medicare, and repeated cuts to tax rates for most households.

No, the reason for the downgrade was the uncertainty caused by the useless debt limit laws. The word “useless” is appropriate. There is no use for a law that limits the federal government’s ability to pay for what it already has purchased. And should anyone believe the law has any purpose whatsoever, they should explain why, since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. If the law had any value, why is it so easily and often increased without exploding as a “time bomb”? Money is power, so ironically, if one truly believed the power belongs with the people and not with the government, he would favor money flowing to the people and from the government. Yet the exact opposite is stated by the Libertarian writer.

Fitch noted how much worse U.S. fiscal metrics are than its peer countries. For example, The U.S. is on track to spend 10% of federal revenue on interest by 2025, compared with just 1% for the average triple-A-rated country and 4.8% for double-A-rated.

Why, then, isn’t the U.S. rating even lower?

Mr. Poole doesn’t give examples of those “triple-A” and “double-A” rated countries, probably because they aren’t comparable to the U.S. government. Perhaps, they don’t have a foolish, useless debt-ceiling law. Or perhaps, they are not Monetarily Sovereign nations that can issue their national currency in unlimited amounts, as the U.S. can. It would have been helpful for Mr. Poole to list the nations he refers to, but of course, he never will because that would destroy his argument.

Because the reserve status of the dollar and the size and safety of Treasury debt gives the U.S. unprecedented borrowing ability.

First, the U.S. government does not borrow U.S. dollars. It pays for goods and services by creating dollars ad hoc, which it has the unlimited ability to do. The U.S. government never unintentionally can run short of dollars.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

Not dependent on credit markets” means they don’t borrow dollars. Second, “reserve status” merely means that banks keep dollars on reserve to facilitate international trade. Not only does the U.S. dollar have reserve status, but so do numerous other currencies, depending on geography. Though the U.S. dollar is the most common reserve currency, other reserve currencies include: the euro, the Japanese yen, the Mexican peso, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the Indian rupee, the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona, and many other currencies now being held in reserve by banks, worldwide. Being a reserve currency does not bestow special safety on a currency. It does not indicate a nation’s ability to pay its bills. Third, Mr. Poole mentions the size and safety of Treasury debt in the same article about its being a “ticking time bomb.” I suggest he has just exploded his own warning, as well as he should.

Indeed, it was hard to get presidents or Congress to worry about the deficit when interest rates were low. Today, a bond market signaling that the world is no longer safe for debts may be the first step to tackling them.

Interest rates have no meaning for a Monetarily Sovereign nation like the U.S., which has the infinite ability to create its own currency. Whether interest is 1% or 50%, or anything between, the U.S. federal government simply presses computer keys to pay. Further, the U.S. Federal Reserve pays whatever interest rate it wishes. It sets the rate by fiat. Unlike private borrowers, the Fed does not need to set a rate that is attractive to lenders because:

a. The government does not borrow. The purpose of T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds is not to provide the government with spending money. The goal is to provide a safe storage place for unused dollars. The federal government never touches the dollars in T-security accounts.

b. If the Treasury wanted to issue T-securities that no one wanted to buy, the Federal Reserve could purchase them.

The long-term consequences of the growing debt were estimated in the latest Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

Its baseline 30-year projection, which assumes no changes in existing laws and programs, is that by 2053, the national debt will constitute 181% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product—compared with 98% today.

The debt/GDP ratio is the most misunderstood fraction in all economics. Contrary to widespread ignorance, that ratio has absolutely nothing to do with the ability of the U.S. to pay its bills. The federal government has the infinite ability to create dollars, which it does by pressing computer keys.

Alan Greenspan: “There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.”

The so-called “debt” is the total of T-security deposits accepted by the federal government. These are dollars in accounts owned by depositors, never touched by the federal government, and paid off simply by returning the dollars in the accounts. The misnamed “debt” consists of net deposits made between yesterday and ten or more years ago. By contrast, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is a one-year spending measure. So, the debt/GDP fraction compares a multi-year total with a one-year total — mathematically senseless. Imagine your house mortgage being $300,000 and you earning $150,000 a year. That would be a 200% ratio that millions of people support all the time. The debt/GDP is even more senseless than that, because GDP doesn’t pay debt. Of course, you aren’t Monetarily Sovereign — you can’t create dollars at will — and the federal debt isn’t real debt. So, the whole thing is foolish, though no more foolish than current worries about Debt/GDP ratios. If you want to waste time evaluating the world’s most useless ratio, go here. It shows the percentages for dozens of countries. I challenge you to use those ratios to determine the world’s best and worst credit risks.

And paying interest on that debt will increase from taking 15% of federal revenue today to 35% of federal revenue in 2053 (more than any national budget item except Social Security and Medicare). And that’s just CBO’s baseline estimate.

Given that the federal government has the infinite ability to create dollars, why does Mr. Poole stress about paying interest? Ignorance or intent to deceive?

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that, given likely extensions of tax cuts and expansions of federal programs, the 2053 national debt will likely rise to 222% of GDP.

Whether the debt is 22%, 222%, or 2222% of GDP has zero effect on the federal government’s ability to pay its bills.

Where does transportation fit in the discussion about the national debt?

Well, in July, the House Appropriations Committee, in response to conservative members saying they’re concerned about out-of-control federal borrowing while a Democrat is in the White House—as opposed to mainly supporting massive deficit spending during the Trump administration—proposed trimming Fiscal Year 2024 Department of Transportation (DOT) discretionary grant spending by $5 billion.

Here is where we get to Congress’s misunderstanding (intentional or otherwise) of the federal government’s ability to pay for things.

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Even if the federal government collected zero taxes, it could continue spending forever. There is no reason to cut spending for budgetary reasons. The government has infinite money.

This relatively minor cut would affect only a few programs in six modal agency discretionary grant programs totaling $22.5 billion last year. Yet a headline in Eno Transportation Weekly read, “FY24 House Funding Bill Has Massive Cuts to DOT Grant Programs.”

This proposal raised similar cries of alarm from highway, transit, and rail organizations, such as the headline “Transportation Funding Under Threat in House of Representatives” by United for Infrastructure, which advocates for more infrastructure investment.

Suppose we make the possibly innocent assumption that the Department of Transportation (DOT) had good reasons for its discretionary grant spending. In that case, we now will be forced to do without that spending. The people will be deprived of important transportation improvements, all because of economic ignorance.

Let’s think ahead a few years to when massive federal funding in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, often referred to as the bipartisan infrastructure law, and the Inflation Reduction Act’s budget has been expended.

At that point, state transportation budgets would be expected to revert to their pre-stimulus spending levels.

This is an important point. Though the federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, can create infinite dollars, the states, counties, and cities are monetarily non-sovereign. They can and often do run short of dollars.

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Why then are states asked to fund what the federal government could easily fund without collecting a penny in taxes? Economic ignorance.

But what can we expect transportation organizations and state DOTs to call for?

Based on history, it’s almost certain states will propose the most recent year of those expanded funding levels as their new budget baselines and ask Congress for federal funding.

And if Congress goes along with the calls for that level of infrastructure spending, there will be another massive amount of federal borrowing.

Reminder: The federal government does not borrow. It creates dollars at will.

Quote from former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when he was on 60 Minutes: Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Since CBO’s dire debt forecasts don’t include this level of increased federal transportation spending, this increase would make all CBO’s 30-year projections seriously underestimating.

Many years ago, a chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Herb Stein, propounded what became known as Stein’s Law. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

But the longer that rude awakening takes to happen, the worse the consequences will be.

Someone, please tell Herb Stein that because the U.S. federal government is Monetarily Sovereign, it can continue to deficit spend forever. It never needs to stop.

America’s transportation leaders should think hard about lobbying for this unsustainable spending to continue.

Sorry, Mr. Poole, but federal spending has proved to be infinitely sustainable. There is no reason for it ever to stop.

The largest contribution to the out-of-control national debt is the impending bankruptcy of Medicare and Social Security.

Because the U.S. government is Monetarily Sovereign, it cannot go bankrupt. For the same reason, no federal government agencies- i.e., Medicare and Social Security- can go bankrupt unless Congress and the President want them to. The federal government could and should eliminate the FICA tax and fund Medicare and Social Security the same way it funds Congress and the White House: By creating dollars. Federal spending is not “out-of-control.” Congress and the President control it. It is exactly what Congress and the President want it to be.

If, or when, Congress finally gets around to grappling with the costs of those programs, it’s likely that most or all federal discretionary programs, including infrastructure programs, will be in for severe and long-term spending cuts.

Transportation leaders should start planning for that significant change now.

Does “severe, long-term spending cuts” in transportation sound like “human flourishing,” the Libertarian excuse for the existence of Libertarianism?

One ray of hope for the highway and bridge sector is the opportunity that comes with the urgent need to phase out per-gallon fuel taxes and replace them with per-mile road user charges, also called mileage-based user fees.

Unnecessary taxes. All federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury. Taxes are paid with dollars from the M1 money supply measure. When they reach the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure. Thus, federal taxes effectively are destroyed upon receipt.

If done right, that transition could fully restore the users-pay/users-benefit principles on which the gas tax was based a hundred years ago.

It could even mean converting state highway systems into revenue-financed highway utilities analogous to electric, gas, and water utilities.

Public utilities, which can be government-owned or investor-owned, charge customers based on how much of the service they use. They also issue long-term revenue bonds backed by the projected income from their user charges to fund the costs of maintaining and improving the infrastructure.

This is the usual Libertarian “soak the private sector” (as opposed to “human flourishing,”), though the federal government has infinite money. Ironically, while Libertarians supposedly favor the private sector, they ask the private sector to give the federal government more money. Do these folks even know what they want?

Long-time traffic and revenue consultant Ed Regan has suggested that metro areas could add a transit tax to charges in the road user charge (RUC) future.

This would mean only residents of an urban area would pay for its transit subsidies—not rural taxpayers or federal taxpayers in general.

This isn’t ideal, but it would be more equitable than today’s system of diverting nationwide highway user tax revenue to transit in a few hundred metro areas.

It would be even more equitable for the federal government to stop pretending it spends tax dollars. The purpose of federal taxes is not to provide spending dollars to a government that has infinite dollars. The fundamental purposes of federal tax dollars are:
  1. Primarily, to control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and giving tax breaks to what the government hopes to encourage.
  2. Secondarily, to create demand for the U.S.  dollar by requiring taxes to be paid in dollars.
  3. In reality, to widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest by claiming that benefits to the poor and middle are “unaffordable” and “unsustainable.”
That is why you are falsely told that Social Security and Medicare benefits must be cut.

In the near term, as advocates of more spending point out, thousands of bridges still need refurbishment or replacement across the country.

But there is no way that federal taxpayers, via expanded federal spending, can address that total problem without massive tax increases.

That is a lie. Federal taxes do not fund federal spending. Period.

State and local transportation officials should start planning for a self-help transportation future that requires users to pay for the infrastructure they use and utilizes public-private partnerships to fund and operate significant projects.

Rather than taking from the private sector, the federal government should fund infrastructure the same way it funds everything else: By simply creating dollars.

A version of this column first appeared in Public Works Financing.

SUMMARY Unlike state and local governments, the U.S. federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. Two hundred and sixty years ago, the government created laws from thin air, and some of those laws created dollars from thin air. They created as many laws and dollars as they wished and gave those dollars the value they wished. It all was arbitrary. Today, the federal government retains the infinite right to create as many dollars as it wishes and to give those dollars whatever value it wishes. Thus the U.S. government never can run short of dollars and has absolute control over inflation. It can pay for anything instantly without collecting a penny in taxes. Unlike state/local taxes, federal taxes are destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury. Similarly, no federal government agency runs short of dollars unless Congress and the President want them to. This includes such federal agencies as the Supreme Court, the White House, Congress, all the branches of the military, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and every federal Department. Libertarians claim to believe the federal government has too much power. Yet, to cure federal deficits, they want to cut benefits and increase taxes. Libertarians want to take dollars from the private sector and give them to the federal government — exactly the opposite of the Libertarian stated philosophy. They claim to wish for “human flourishing” and for “freedom,” but it is a freedom to be impoverished and without medical care and transportation, ultimately ending in anarchy. Libertarianism is a fraud that claims to want something noble, but in practice opts for something evil. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The useless, no harmful, battles over the Big Lie

Imagine witnessing an argument between two people. Person #1 says, “A stork delivers babies.” Person #2 says, “FedEx delivers babies.” What would you say about that argument? That it’s so ignorant as to be beyond words? It’s pretty much what I say about arguments concerning the U.S. federal “debt.”

Dems, Republicans Far Apart On Soaring U.S. Debt: I&I/TIPP Poll, Terry Jones, April 17, 2023

The perennial dance between the president and Congress over the budget and raising America’s debt ceiling is a widely reported but much-ignored, event. This time around, it shouldn’t be.

Even as our national debt soars, Americans are split over how serious the problem is, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows. Meanwhile, a government shutdown, or even possibly default, looms.

At the last official count, federal debt totaled about $31.5 trillion. Looked at from a different perspective, $31.5 trillion means each American household is now responsible for roughly $237,500 in U.S. debt.

There is the Big Lie in all its glory. As an American, you are responsible for exactly $0 of the so-called “debt” (that isn’t even a real debt).

And it’s getting bigger fast, posing a threat to both the economy and the financial system. If Congress and President Joe Biden can’t make a deal soon, a government shutdown, or worse, possible default, loom.

What exactly is the “threat”? Is it that our Monetarily Sovereign government, which has the infinite ability to create its sovereign currency, the dollar, will be unable to service the “debt”? No, as previous Federal Reserve Chairs have said:

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Will the interest on the “debt” bankrupt the government? No:

Alan Greenspan: “There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.”

The federal “debt” isn’t even federal debt. It is the net total of deposits into T-security accounts held at the Federal Reserve. Each account resembles a safe deposit box. The depositor owns the contents. When each account matures, the contents are returned to the owner by transference to the owner’s checking account. It’s a simple asset transfer that does not involve you — not as a debtor, taxpayer, or American citizen — not in any way. So you can forget about the $237,500 Terry Jones, the author, claims you owe. You don’t.

How does the public feel about this? The online I&I/TIPP Poll for April, taken from March 29-31 from 1,365 Americans across the country, asked the following question: “Some say that the debt is not sustainable.

Others say that the debt is manageable relative to the size of the American economy. Which is closer to your viewpoint?”

The respondents were given the false choice of two wrong answers. The “debt” is neither sustainable nor “manageable.” It is meaningless. The size of the economy is not the point. So long as America’s obligation to creditors is in U.S. dollars, it is totally under the control of the U.S. government. Governments get into financial trouble when:
  1. They are monetarily non-sovereign, so they cannot create whatever currency they use (Examples are cities, counties, states, and euro nations) or
  2. They are Monetarily Sovereign but still trade and borrow in U.S. dollars or some other currency, not their own (Examples are Argentina, Russia, Venezuela).

Overall, voters saying the debt is “not sustainable” totaled 48%, a plurality, compared to those who called the debt “manageable relative to the size of the economy” at 35%. (The poll’s margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.)

It was a meaningless poll. The public believes what they are told, and they are wrongly told that federal (Monetarily Sovereign) financing is like personal (monetarily non-sovereign) financing.

The political breakdown, however, is telling and perhaps explains why the debt debate each year gets increasingly divisive and angry: Republicans (74%) and independents (50%) overwhelmingly call the debt unsustainable, compared to Democrats at just 32%.

Only 14% of Republicans and 28% of independents call the debt “manageable,” versus 51% of Democrats who do.

This huge split between Democrats on one side, and Republicans and independents on the other, will make it hard to forge a deal satisfactory to both sides. Failure to do so risks a financial cataclysm.

It isn’t the split that makes it hard to forge a satisfactory deal. It’s just that the two alternatives are of the “stork vs. angel” variety. The third alternative — that the so-called “debt” (i.e., deposits) is meaningless — was not offered.

What can be done? On Jan. 19, the debt ceiling was hit, meaning the government has had to play a kind of fiscal shell game to pay its bills.

As though the use of the term “debt” to mean “deposits” and the wrongheaded worries about “sustainability” (whatever that means) weren’t enough, the not-a-debt also repeatedly has been called a “ticking time bomb” every year since 1940. In 1940 the Gross Federal Debt was $51 Billion. By 2022, it was $31 Trillion, an astounding 60,000% increase. Annual predictions have been made that the “debt” is not sustainable, and every year America sustains it. Although it is the slowest time bomb in history, you can rely on this year’s repeat of the annual predictions that the “debt” is “unsustainable.” And as for that  “shell game,” it’s the result of a strange law that essentially says, “We will punish our creditors unless they immediately return the dollars that T-security account owners have deposited.”

House Republicans, negotiating with the Biden administration, have put forward a plan to temporarily raise the debt ceiling until May of next year. In exchange for avoiding a possible federal default, they seek caps on federal spending,

The argument is this. The debt is unsustainable, but we’ll raise this unsustainable ceiling if you take dollars from the middle classes and the poor. Yes, really.

“The GOP proposal would call for a cap on either non-defense discretionary spending or overall discretionary spending after paring the federal budget back to 2022 levels,” the Washington Times reported last week.

What exactly is “non-defense discretionary spending“? Non-Defense Discretionary Spending, Fiscal Year 2019 In 2019, non-defense discretionary (NDD) spending totaled $661 billion, or 14 percent of federal spending. That same year, the federal “debt” was $23 Trillion. The entire NND was less than 3% of the so-called “debt.” Would you be willing to see every dollar cut from health care and health research, diplomacy, science, environment, energy, transportation, economic development, law enforcement and governance, education and training, and economic security? Oh, but that’s not all.

“The proposal would also claw back unspent COVID-19 funds, block President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan that is currently tied up in a Supreme Court battle, institute work requirements for social welfare programs and implement the Republican plan to lower energy costs, which passed the House but is expected to languish in the Senate,” the report said.

Essentially, the GOP’s idea is to punish the poor and middle classes and reward the military-industrial complex, all for the dubious accomplishment of immediately returning the deposits in T-security accounts. Of course, the GOP doesn’t have a real plan. Those were some general suggestions. They have refused to devise an actual plan because their only thought is to negate anything Biden suggests and exact Trumpian revenge by investigating Democrats. It’s the failed Benghazi investigation all over again.

And the White House’s position has always been: No preconditions. Just raise the debt ceiling.

The real position should be “No preconditions. Just eliminate the debt ceiling. But, the public has been imbued with the notion that having a debt ceiling makes for prudent finance. So flat-out elimination only can be accomplished when the public is educated that the “debt” is meaningless for a Monetarily Sovereign government. Strangely, the public doesn’t complain when the ceiling arbitrarily is raised — 90 times — but probably would object to it being eliminated. That’s human thought.

Fresh from his April 11-14 trip to Ireland, Biden had this to say when asked if he would talk to McCarthy:

“Of course, I’ll speak to him. Show me his budget,” Biden told reporters. “That old expression — ‘show me your budget.’ You know, he — we agreed early on, I’d lay down a budget, which I did on March 9th, and he’d lay down a budget.”

“I don’t know what we’re negotiating if I don’t know what they want,” Biden added.

Sunday was the deadline for Congress to agree on a new budget. For the 20th year in a row, it failed in that responsibility. No surprise there since the Senate is controlled by the Democrats and the House by Republicans, who remain far apart in their priorities.

What should be done?

It’s not a difficult question. The debt ceiling should be eliminated. Period.

The Biden Administration believes the solution to America’s economic woes is more federal spending and higher taxes.

Having increased federal spending by nearly $5 trillion in its first two years, the Biden administration now proposes additional tax and spending increases totaling $4.7 trillion and $1.9 trillion, respectively.

Those who understand Monetary Sovereignty know that our Monetarily Sovereign government has no need or use for taxes. It has the infinite ability to create dollars at the touch of a computer key. Monetary Sovereignty became a reality in 1971 — the “Nixon Shock” — when President Nixon made the most significant move of his administration: He divorced the U.S. dollar from gold. We no longer needed to match the value of gold (which changed daily) to any fixed number of dollars. We could create dollars at will as we needed them. The debt ceiling was created in 1917 to allay fears about dollar acceptance. It tried to make lenders and users confident that the dollar would not suddenly lose value. Today, the debt ceiling is laughably useless.

Depending on who is doing the research, it is said that the US raised its debt ceiling (in some form or other) at least 90 times in the 20th century.

Anyone with at least half a brain would understand that if any limit is increased 90 times, it has served no useful purpose. The sole purpose is to give the party that is not in power some leverage over the party in power. It’s a foolish idea, which is why Congress loves it.

The debt ceiling was raised 74 times from March 1962 to May 2011,[14] including 18 times under Ronald Reagan, eight times under Bill Clinton, seven times under George W. Bush, and five times under Barack Obama. The debt ceiling has never been reduced, even though the public debt itself may have been reduced.

Congress has raised the debt ceiling 14 times from 2001 to 2016. The debt ceiling was raised a total of 7 times during Pres. Bush’s eight-year term, and it was raised 11 times during Pres. Obama’s eight years in office.

Meanwhile, White House assertions that it will actually cut deficits over the next decade by $3 trillion have been roundly criticized by budget hawks. In fact, projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office show annual deficits growing from $1.4 trillion this year to $2.7 trillion in 2033, while as a result total federal debt will soar from $32.4 trillion at the end of this year to $52 trillion in 2033.

The White House, the entire Democratic Party, and the entire Republican Party (with the possible exception of Marjorie Taylor Greene) understands the debt ceiling is a fraud. But the public doesn’t understand it, so all politicians suck up the “fiscal responsibility” of the debt ceiling. In a way, it’s something like the GOP denying that Donald Trump is a criminal or the Democrats saying that a tax increase on the rich would “pay for” something.

The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Director Vitor Gaspar recently told Yahoo Finance that it is clear “that from the viewpoint of medium- and long-term prospects, there is a very strong case for fiscal adjustment in the U.S.”

Actually, “there is a very strong case for” Gaspar lying or ignorant of Monetary Sovereignty.

Of greater concern is what would happen if foreign holders of U.S. government debt suddenly get spooked and start to sell their holdings of U.S. securities.

Officially, foreign treasuries and investors own about $7.6 trillion of U.S. government debt. Bad news here, such as a default on U.S. debt this summer, could spark a run on the dollar and cause interest rates to surge, sending a recessionary shock wave through the U.S. and global economies.bad news

If Congress would forget about the phony debt ceiling, it could, if it wished, pay off the federal “debt” tomorrow simply by returning the dollars sitting in T-security accounts. The purpose of those accounts is not to provide the U.S. government with spending dollars. It has infinite amounts of those. T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds, the purpose  of which is to provide a safe, interest-paying place to store unused dollars. This stabilizes the dollar. All this nonsense about debt ceilings is about to do exactly what the debt Henny Pennys fear: Cause a run on the dollar.

Recent deals among the Russians, Chinese, and Saudis to create alternatives to the world’s dollar-based trade are already threatening the dollar’s preeminent position as the No. 1 global currency.

A debt panic might push the dollar to the brink, bringing inflation and perhaps eventually forcing the U.S. to do something it hasn’t had to since before World War II — pay some, if not most, of its bills in someone else’s currency, a huge disadvantage.

No, the Russians, Chinese, and Saudis won’t cause a run on the dollar, but this year the Republican Party might do just that.

Americans’ complacency about our growing fiscal problems has so far not hurt us too badly. That might not always be the case, however.

Complacency won’t hurt us. The nutty debt ceiling eventually might, however. We should get rid of the damn thing before it causes real damage.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

And by the way, when the federal debt doesn’t rise enough, we have recessions.  
When federal debt growth falls, we have recessions (vertical gray bars.) Recessions are cured by increased federal debt growth. 
It’s pretty simple. A growing economy requires a growing supply of money. Federal deficit spending adds money to the economy. Not enough federal money = recessions. Add federal money = recessions cured. Does it get simpler than that? Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

 

A misleading graph: Federal income vs. federal spending

Self-evaluation corresponds with intelligence. If you are smart, being smart lets you understand that you are smart. If you are stupid, being stupid keeps you from knowing you are stupid. Thus, everyone thinks they are smart. In related issues, everyone thinks they are above-average drivers and that the federal government can run short of dollars.

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A rose by any other name may smell as sweet, but what if they called it “stinkwort”? Labels do matter. Visualize this scenario:
Man row a row boat at sea — Stock Video © lucidwaters #82323100
The boater must take more water from the ocean than he receives from the ocean. That is, the ocean must run a water deficit for the boater to survive, just as the federal government must run a dollar deficit for the economy to survive.
A man sits in a rowboat in the Pacific Ocean. Using his desalinization kit he fills his canteen with one pint of water, which he later drinks and excretes as urine, But, because of perspiration evaporation and breathing, he excretes only 9/10th pint of urine. So, for boater the Pacific Ocean runs a deficit of 1/10th pint of water. Does anyone care? No, the Pacific Ocean running a 1/10th pint of water deficit is meaningless, because for all intents, the ocean has infinite water. Infinite water minus 1/10th pint still equals infinite. No change. Now imagine the same scenario, except instead of viewing it from the ocean’s standpoint, view it from the boater’s standpoint.  The man has drunk a pint of water, 9/10th of which he has excreted as urine into the ocean, and used the rest for perspiration, and other bodily functions. That pint of water has allowed him to live for a certain time. Without the pint of water, he would have died. That’s important. In both scenarios we gave you the same information, but in one case we labeled it as a water measure from the standpoint of the ocean, and in the other case we labeled it as a water measure from the standpoint of the boater. The following graph comes from https://www.chartr.co/newsletters/2023-02-08/. It labels money flow from the standpoint of the U.S. government:
This graph shows the nation’s money flow from the standpoint of the U.S. government, not from the standpoint of the economy.
Here are excerpts from the accompanying article:

State of the union’s wallet Last night, President Biden held the annual State of the Union. A big theme was the economy. He threatened to veto any proposal that would cut spending on Social Security and Medicare while also imploring Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

I O U $1.4 trillion: In fiscal year 2022, the federal government collected nearly $5tn in revenue, with more than 50% of that coming from individual income taxes.

However, the US government spent even more, leading to a nearly $1.4tn deficit

To make up for the difference the US government does what everyone who overspends their budget does — they borrow.

This then adds to its already enormous tab (AKA the national debt), which currently sits at the $31.4tn debt ceiling limit.

With a debt pile that big, the interest payments aren’t small. Indeed, last year the US government spent ~$480bn on net interest payments, just shy of IrelandNorway or Nigeria’s annual GDP.

There are three major problems with the above scenario.
  1. It draws a false parallel between the finances of our Monetarily Sovereign government and the finances of monetarily non-sovereign “everyone.” The former has infinite money and the latter does not.
  2. It falsely states that the federal government must borrow in order to “make up the difference.” The federal government, having the infinite ability to create its sovereign currency, never borrows dollars, and never needs to “make up the difference.” To pay all its obligations, the federal government creates new dollars, ad hoc. It destroys all the tax dollars it receives.
  3. It labels the money movement from the standpoint of the federal government rather than from the standpoint of the economy.
Think of the Pacific Ocean as analogous to the U.S. federal government, and the boater as analogous to the economy. Like the Pacific Ocean’s water, the federal government has infinite dollars. And like the boater’s limited water supply, the economy has limited dollars.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Quote from from 60 Minutes: Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

(The final sentence, above, is Fed-speak for, “The government does not borrow to pay its bills.”)

The U.S. government is not the only Monetarily Sovereign government. The European Central Bank also is Monetarily Sovereign (and like the U.S. economy, individual euro nations are monetarily non-sovereign.)

Press Conference: Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 9 January 2014 Question: I am wondering: can the ECB ever run out of money? Mario Draghi: Technically, no. We cannot run out of money.

To survive, the boater needs the Pacific Ocean to run a water deficit. Similarly, to survive, the economy needs the federal government to run a dollar deficit. The Pacific Ocean does not need to receive any water from the boater nor does the Ocean “owe” the boater any water. Similarly, the economy should not be asked to give the federal government any money, nor does the government “owe” the economy any money. Finally, the Pacific Ocean does not borrow water to give water to the boater. Think of the Pacific Ocean and the boater the next time you hear about federal debt limits and taxes. Labels matter. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Federal debt, myths and facts: What you’ve been told vs. the facts.

Here is what the St. Louis Fed says:

Debt-to-GDP Ratio: How High Is Too High? It Depends October 07, 2020, By Heather Hennerich

How much federal debt is too much? Is there a tipping point at which it becomes a big problem for a country?

One way to gauge the size of a country’s national debt is to compare it with the size of its economy—the ratio of debt to GDP. (GDP serves as a measure of an economy’s overall size and health, measuring the total market value of all of a country’s goods and services produced in a given year.)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one measure of size, but it is not a measure of health. There is no relationship between the health of an economy and the Debt/GDP ratio. Heather Hennerich’s claim that “GDP serves as a measure of an economy’s overall size and health” simply is false. In fact, the Debt/GDP ratio signifies nothing, nothing at all. Yes, it’s a fraction that is quoted all the time by people who should know better. But you might as well quote an apples/Apple phones comparison. Debt is a cumulative measure of federal government deficits since the beginning of time. GDP is a one year measure of an entire nation’s spending. If you want a similar comparison try the total amount of water a city has wasted vs. the amount of orange juice the mayor drank, yesterday. Call it the “waste/OJ” ratio, and claim it means something. Skim the following list of Debt/GDP ratios, and see if you can find any relationship between the Debt/GDP ratio, the population of the nation, and what you know about the health of its economy. Begin with the fact that wealthy, powerful Japan and weak, impoverished Greece are 1,2 on the list. The United States falls right between Mozambique and Djbouti on the list. Russia has one of the lowest ratios, indicating the “health” of its economy.

NATION — DEBT/GDP RATIO — POPULATION

The Debt/GDP ratio does not measure the health of an economy.
The next time you hear or read some pundit’s concerns about America’s Debt/GDP ratio, you will know that pundit does not know what he/she is talking about.

The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio was 107% late last year, and it went up to nearly 136% in the second quarter of 2020 with the passage of a coronavirus relief package.

By comparison, Japan’s ratio at the end of 2019 was higher: about 200%, according to data from the Bank of Japan and Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and calculations by St. Louis Fed Economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro.

By comparing the total federal debt to the size of a country’s economy, we can see how that government can use the resources at hand to finance the debt, according to Your Guide to America’s Finances from the U.S. Department of Treasury.

This wrongly assumes that federal (Monetarily Sovereign) finances are like personal (monetarily non-sovereign) finances. The federal government does not “finance” its debt. (Here the word “finance” seems to mean pay it off or perhaps pay interest on it.) The so-called “debt” is nothing more than deposits into privately owned, Treasury Security accounts. We say “privately owned” because the federal government never touches those dollars. As a depositor, you alone decide when to take dollars out or leave them in (following certain initial rules). The dollars are yours when you deposit them and when you retrieve them. That’s why they are not a “loan.” If they were a loan, the borrower would control them. But there is no borrower. The federal government never borrows dollars. These accounts are similar to safe deposit boxes into which you place your valuables. Just as the bank never touches those valuables, the federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, never needs to touch your deposited money. To pay off the so-called “debt” the government merely returns your dollars to you, the depositor. As for the “resources at hand,” we assume this means that in some mysterious way, the government supposedly uses GDP or perhaps Lake Michigan, to pay off T-securities. No one knows how that works. It’s all gibberish and nonsensical.

In his research, Faria-e-Castro explores big questions about the economy, so we asked him about this issue last year. 

Deficit spending means that a government is choosing not to raise taxes today to pay for that spending but is choosing to wait until tomorrow, Faria-e-Castro said.

Monetarily non-sovereign governments (state, local, euro) use taxes to fund spending. But Monetarily Sovereign governments (US, Canada, Japan, Australia, et al) do not use taxes to fund spending. A huge difference Faria-e-Castro seems not to understand. (And he’s an economist for the St. Louis Fed!!) Monetarily Sovereign governments use taxes to direct their economies by taxing what they want to discourage and giving tax breaks to what they want to encourage. There is scant similarity between federal finances and state/local government finances. Those who do not understand the difference should not be writing for the Federal Reserve. While state/local governments rely on tax income, the federal government could continue spending, forever, with no tax income at all.

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Then we come to this bit of misinformation, that applies to state/local governments, but not to the federal government:

When federal spending exceeds revenue, the difference is a deficit. The government mostly borrows money to make up the difference.

The federal government doesn’t borrow dollars. Why would it, given its infinite ability to create new dollars?

Alan Greenspan: “There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.”

Greenspan understood Monetary Sovereignty. Too bad he didn’t make his knowledge clear so we no longer would have ridiculous laws mandating a “debt ceiling.” Now, again, the nation is paralyzed by the useless debt ceiling while the GOP demands spending cuts though they have no idea what they want to cut. (They don’t have the courage to admit they really would like to cut Social Security and Medicare, so as to help the rich become richer.)

The total national debt is an accumulation of federal deficits over time, minus any repayments of debt, among other factors.

By law, the federal government accepts deposits into T-security accounts equal to the accumulation of federal deficits. This is a point of confusion, because people mistakenly are led to believe that the deposits pay for the deficits. They don’t. The deposits pay for nothing. The purpose of deposits (i.e. T-securities) is to provide a safe place to store dollars, which stabilizes the dollar.

A big consequence of deficit spending is that the fiscal burden shifts from one generation to the next, Faria-e-Castro said.

This is entirely wrong. You never have endured a “fiscal burden” for previous deficits. The government pays for all its deficits by creating new dollars from thin air. This is not a burden on anyone, not on you and not on the government. The “fiscal burden” myth, promulgated through the decades, is a result of ignorance about Monetary Sovereignty.

That’s fine if a country’s economy is growing, because you know that the next generation will, on average, be better off than the current one, and likely able to pay a little more in taxes to decrease the debt, Faria-e-Castro said.

But if a country’s economy is slowing and economic growth rates are lower than they used to be, “this starts becoming a more divisive issue.”

It’s only divisive for those who are ignorant about federal finances. “The next generation” doesn’t pay for back debt. The taxes paid by every generation see the same fate: All federal taxes are destroyed upon receipt. Tax dollars are paid from what is known as “the M2 money supply measure.” The moment they are received by the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure. In short, they are destroyed.

Say the government of “Country X” borrows money to cover its deficits, Faria-e-Castro said. Investors—many of them international—buy that debt and then want to be repaid.

“One day, the president of Country X can just organize a press conference and just tell people, ‘OK. We’re not paying,’” Faria-e-Castro said. “That’s an outright hard default.”

But countries that take that action will have trouble borrowing again. Lenders will be less willing to lend to them and will charge higher interest rates.

Here, Faria-e-Castro displays remarkable ignorance of national finance because he doesn’t differentiate between Monetarily Sovereign governments and monetarily non-sovereign governments. The monetarily non-sovereign governments borrow money because they have no sovereign currency.

“The president of Country X can call the governor of the central bank and say, ‘OK, you have to print money to pay for this debt,’” Faria-e-Castro said.

In a country where the central bank is not an independent authority, the central bank can be pressured more easily by politicians to start printing money to pay for the country’s debt, he said.

But the flow of new money will invariably lead to high inflation in that country. That erases the value of the debt—a “soft default”—but it also typically kicks off hyperinflation, Faria-e-Castro said.

Astoundingly, that is precisely what does not happen, and the evidence is there for all to see. Whether one views federal debt as “Federal Debt Held by The Public” (first graph below) or as “Federal Debt as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product” (2nd graph below), there is no relationship between federal debt and inflation.  
There is no relationship between federal debt held by the public and inflation. Peaks and valleys do not correspond.
 
There is no relationship between the Debt/GDP ratio and inflation. Peaks an valleys do not correspond.
It never ceases to amaze that obvious and readily available statistics are ignored by so-called “experts” in favor of hand-me-down beliefs having no basis in fact. Inflation is not related to federal spending because inflation is caused by shortages of key goods and services. Some claim that federal deficit spending causes those shortages, but for years and years, we’d seen massive federal spending, with low inflation. The federal dollars that led to increased demand also facilitated increased supply. That is how capitalism works; supply rises to meet demand. But suddenly, in 2020, we began to see inflation. What suddenly changed in 2020? COVID. The inflation that came suddenly in 2020, an inflation we still endure, was caused by COVID-related shortages of oil, food, computer chips, lumber, steel, shipping, labor, etc. There is no statistical relationship between federal deficit spending and inflation. But would you like to see something that does have a relationship with inflation?
Shortages of key goods and services (most often oil) cause inflation. Oil prices are closely related to supply. The peaks and valleys correspond between oil supply and inflation.
Yes, if you’re looking for the primary cause of inflation, start with oil shortages, which then relate to other shortages. COVID was responsible for shortages of oil, food, etc. It would be hard to make the case that after decades of big deficits, suddenly federal spending caused an increase in oil demand. Inflations are supply-related. Federal spending actually can cure inflation if the spending is directed toward obtaining the scarce goods and services and distributing them to the public. Contrary to popular wisdom, restricting federal spending during an inflation is counterproductive. 

Hyperinflation is excessive inflation, with very rapid and out of control general price increases. Economists usually consider monthly inflation rates of above 50% as hyperinflation episodes, as noted in a 2018 On the Economy blog post.

Faria-e-Castro explained, countries that are not politically stable and don’t have independent central banks are not going to have very credible institutions. As a consequence, they can’t borrow easily: Investors won’t be willing to lend them that much for fear of future default.

But the debt of countries with strong institutions and independent central banks—like the U.S. and Japan—doesn’t present the same risks, Faria-e-Castro said.

He thinks the difference between countries has to do with a “strong, central bank.” Poppycock. The central bank of a Monetarily Sovereign nation is strong because Monetary Sovereignty makes it strong. It has the unlimited ability to create its nation’s sovereign currency. Monetarily non-sovereign nations also have central banks. Sadly, these banks are weak because they do not have the unlimited ability to create sovereign currency: They have no sovereign currency to create.

Few believe, for example, that the Japanese government will ever pressure the Bank of Japan to actually “print” money to pay for the country’s debt, Faria-e-Castro said.

First, the Bank of Japan “prints” (creates) yen all the time. No “pressure” needed. It’s a normal, daily process. And second, those yen do not pay for the country’s debt. They pay for the country’s purchases. Like the U.S., the Japanese government does not borrow to pay for anything. It creates yen to pay for everything.

“As a consequence, these countries can typically sustain very high levels of debt to GDP,” he said. “Because people really believe that they will be repaid, so they can keep lending.”

There’s that phony Debt/GDP ratio, again. The U.S. doesn’t borrow.  It issues Treasury bills, notes, and bonds, and if not enough are issued to satisfy the law, the Federal Reserve Bank simply buys the rest.

The strength of institutions also affects interest rates on the debt, which is another factor in determining the sustainability of high debt-to-GDP ratios.

No, the Fed determines short-term interest rates by fiat. And that meaningless Debt/GDP ratio is infinitely sustainable.

If a country has strong institutions, interest rates on the debt will be low, which means the cost of borrowing will be low, Faria-e-Castro said.

When he talks about the “cost of borrowing,” he mistakenly believes government T-securities represent borrowing. They don’t. They represent deposits. These deposits are paid off, not with taxes but by returning the dollars that are in the accounts. And whether interest rates are high or low is irrelevant to a Monetarily Sovereign nation having the infinite ability to create the currency to pay interest.

Because the institutional strength and riskiness of countries varies, there’s no rule of thumb for how high a debt-to-GDP ratio can be before it poses a risk to a country’s economy.

“At the end of the day, it all boils down to strong and independent institutions,” Faria-e-Castro said.

“A lot of economists try to study this. There’s no single measure that we can come up with… Measuring institutional strength is not obvious.”

It’s not obvious because Faria-e-Castro is confusing federal financing with private financing. He doesn’t understand the difference between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty. And he’s speaking for the Federal Reserve!? Yikes! He falls in line with the current mistaken belief that fighting inflations requires the pain of recession that cuts in federal spending beget. That is the kind of leadership that destroys nations. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY