Will the “Build Back Better” bill and “too much” federal debt cause inflation? An examination of myths.

The big argument of the day has to do with federal deficit spending. The Republicans say they don’t like it because increasing the federal “debt” causes inflation. The Democrats agree that increased federal “debt” is inflationary, but that their proposals are “paid for” by increased taxes. So, according to the Dems. the federal debt wouldn’t increase enough to cause inflation. In total, both parties and all their hired economists wrongly agree that federal deficit spending leads to inflation, a false belief demonstrated in the following article:
House passes Build Back Better bill after overnight delay It’s unclear whether moderate Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema will agree to some of the provisions included by the House. “The Build Back Better Act is fiscally responsible,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. “It reduces the deficit over the long-term. It’s fully paid for by making sure that the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations begin to pay their fair share in federal taxes. “Leading economists and independent experts on Wall Street have confirmed that it will not add to inflationary pressures. Instead, it will boost the capacity of our economy and reduce costs for millions of families.”
Janet Yellen Not Planning a Wealth Tax, but Could Do Capital Gains Tax
Yellen spreading the Big Lie that federal taxes fund federal spending and that the federal debt is too large.
The CBO said it would increase the deficit by more than $367 billion over 10 years. But the estimate did not include the revenue that could be generated from increasing IRS enforcement, which the CBO suggested would be $207 billion. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted that the Treasury Department estimates that the crackdown on tax evaders would raise $400 billion, and her own department’s analysis “make it clear that Build Back Better is fully paid for, and in fact will reduce our nation’s debt over time by generating more than $2 trillion through reforms that ask the wealthiest Americans and large corporations to pay their fair share.” The White House, which estimated its framework would cost $1.75 trillion, claims it would reduce the deficit over time, generating more than $2.1 trillion over 10 years.
Sounds great, doesn’t it? The spending is “fully paid for,” and increased tax collections would “reduce our nation’s debt” and “reduce the deficit.” Thank heavens it’s all a lie, a Big Lie. Despite all the chest-thumping by Biden and friends, the bill will be “fully paid for” simply because all federal spending is fully paid for by federal money creation, never by taxes. The federal government uniquely is Monetarily Sovereign. Unlike state and local taxes, which do pay for state and local government spending, federal taxes pay for nothing. That is a fundamental difference between monetarily non-sovereign state and local governments vs. the Monetarily Sovereign federal government. State and local taxes are M1 (money supply) dollars that remain in the private sector, even after they are received by state and local governments. (The state/local governments deposit their tax dollars into private sector banks.) By contrast, Federal taxes are M1 dollars that are removed from the economy and destroyed when they hit the Treasury, where they no longer appear in any money measure. Anyone not understanding that fundamental truth simply doesn’t understand economics, and has no business voting on or commenting about federal spending. (In all probability, most of the federal politicians do understand, but don’t want you to understand, lest you ask for more benefits. Rich political benefactors want the Gap between the rich and the rest to widen, an event which makes the rich richer.) Worse yet, if in fact, the increased federal taxes equal or exceed spending (which is what the Dems claim will happen) then the removal of money from the private sector (aka “the economy”) will lead to a depression, as has happened so often n the past.i We only can pray the Dems are lying about reducing the debt and deficit. The other issue, perhaps the biggest issue currently, is whether increased deficits and debt will cause inflation. This is the one the GOP harps on, because they can’t complain about deficits, as they recently gifted the rich with major deficit-causing tax decreases (which by the way, increased the deficit and debt, but didn’t cause inflation). So what causes inflation? Is it the money supply, as so many economists claim? Do you see any relationship between the M2 money supply and inflation?
Inflation (blue) vs. The M2 Money Supply (red)
No, there doesn’t seem to be any relationship between the M2 money supply and inflation. But wait. Some economists claim it isn’t just the increased money supply that causes inflation, but rather increases in the velocity of money that causes inflation.

The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. (per the Federal Reserve of St. Louis)

Inflation (bright blue) vs. the velocity of M2 (pale blue).
No, there is a massive difference between the two lines. The velocity of money doesn’t seem to be a cause of inflation. So what about federal debt? That’s one that many economists claim causes inflation.
Inflation (blue) vs. Federal Debt Held By The Public (purple)
No, the peaks and valleys are completely different. Despite the bleating by Republicans and Libertarians, there doesn’t seem to be any relationship between federal debt and inflation. Here’s another thought. Some folks worry that the world (China especially) won’t “lend” us enough dollars. It’s a ridiculous concern, because the federal government does not borrow dollars from anyone, and further, it never can run short of dollars. But ridiculous concerns are part of what constitutes today’s economics. So, when the federal government doesn’t sell enough “debt” (Treasury Securities) to meet legal (though not financial) requirements, the Federal Reserve jumps in with its infinite supply of dollars. So, is there a relationship between inflation and the Federal Debt held by Federal Reserve Banks?
Inflation vs. Federal Debt held by Federal Reserve Banks
Nope. No relationship there, either. So, what does cause inflation? Here’s one hint:
Inflation (blue) vs. Spot Crude Oil Price (orange).
That’s more like it. Notice how the peaks and valleys of inflation generally match up with the peaks and valleys of oil prices. Of course, the match is not perfect because oil prices, which closely are related to oil shortages, are not the sole cause of inflation. Today’s inflation is related to the shortages not only of oil, but also of food, labor, shipping, computer chips, and other vital resources. And that gives you the answer to the question, “What causes inflation?” Inflation always is caused by shortages of key commodities, most often food and energy, along with other supplies. Inflation never is caused by “too much money,” never by federal spending, and never by federal deficits and debt. Not only do shortages, not money supply, always cause inflation, but inflation can be cured by federal deficit spending to cure shortages and to distribute the scarce items. Currently, the federal government is trying to ease inflation by distributing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is an example of government spending, because the government previously had deficit-spent to acquire that oil. The government can reduce the shortages of food and shipping by strategic spending to aid growers and shippers. The government can spend to bring more computer chip manufacturing to our shores. If the government would eliminate the nonsensical, useless FICA tax, (and act that would increase the federal deficit and debt) that would effectively raise salaries and encourage more people to come to work, thus easing the labor shortage. In summary, all the worries about federal deficit spending causing inflation are completely misplaced and in most cases, dishonest. They are nothing more than an attempt to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest. Finally, if federal deficit spending does not cause inflation, what does federal deficit spending do? Federal deficit spending helps prevent and cure recessions:
Gold line shows increases and decreases in federal deficit spending. Vertical gray bars indicate recessions.
When federal deficit growth declines we have a recession, which is cured by a deficit growth increase. SUMMARY The federal government, unlike state/local governments, cannot run short of U.S. dollars. It can pay any debt denominated in dollars, simply by creating dollars. Though state/local government taxes fund state/local government spendinng, federal taxes do not fund federal spending. Unlike state/local tax dollars, federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury. No evidence supports the belief that “too much” federal deficit spending causes inflation. On the contrary, federal deficit spending can prevent and cure inflations. Additionally, federal deficit spending can prevent and cure recessions and depressions. There is no financial reason ever to restrict federal spending. The false belief that federal finances are similar to state/local government finances and personal finances is fostered by the very rich, who strongly influence the government via bribery. The rich wish to widen the Gap between them and the rest of the citizenry. The wider the Gap, the richer are the rich. It is the fundamental reason why the rich bribe the politicians, the media, and the economists. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.

The most important problems in economics involve:
  1. Monetary Sovereignty describes money creation and destruction.
  2. Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics. Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps: Ten Steps To Prosperity:
  1. Eliminate FICA
  2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D, plus long-term care — for everyone
  3. Social Security for all
  4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone
  5. Salary for attending school
  6. Eliminate federal taxes on business
  7. Increase the standard income tax deduction, annually. 
  8. Tax the very rich (the “.1%”) more, with higher progressive tax rates on all forms of income.
  9. Federal ownership of all banks
  10. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99.9% 
The Ten Steps will grow the economy and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

A letter from Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio Skips Miami Town Hall, Constituents Replace Him With Empty Suit  | Miami New Times
Rubio Skips Town Hall, Constituents Replace Him With Empty Suit
Sen. Marco Rubio, best known for not showing up for work, has demonstrated why his absence might be better for America than his attendance. Here are excerpts from this truly ignorant letter I received today:
Dear Mr. Mitchell, Thank you for taking the time to express your thoughts regarding spending and the federal budget. Understanding your views helps me to better represent Florida in the United States Senate, and I appreciate the opportunity to respond. As of May 20, 2021, the U.S. national debt had reached more than $28.3 trillion. This is an unsustainable course that Congress must address.
Why is it “unsustainable”? Sen. Rubio never says, surely because he has no clue. Back in 1940, the so-called, misnamed “debt” was about $40 Billion, and today he says it is $28.3 Trillion, and yet we are “sustaining” it quite nicely, thank you. Rather than explaining his position, Rubio goes on to demonstrate his total ignorance of federal financing:
On February 3, 2021, Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) and I introduced  S.J. Res. 6 , which would enact a balanced budget amendment to the United States Constitution. The bill has 14 cosponsors and was referred to the Senate Committee on the Judiciary. A balanced budget is based on common-sense principles that should be enshrined in the U.S. Constitution. This would force politicians in Washington to do what every family across the United States must do in balancing their own budgets. This would also prevent us from continuously passing the bill to the next generation.
Clearly, he has no idea about the difference between a Monetarily Sovereign entity like the U.S. government and a monetarily non-sovereign entity like a family. So he proposes an extraordinarily foolish law, that had it been in place back in 1940, would have doomed the U.S. to a $40 Billion “debt” today — i.e. the deepest depression in world history. Pitifully, Rubio is joined in his exercise of idiocy by Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and “14 cosponsors.” With lawmakers like this, can anyone wonder why the U.S. Congress is perhaps the most inept group of partisan fools in America?
On March 27, 2020, President Trump signed into law the bipartisan Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (P.L. 116-136), which was a $2 trillion emergency relief package that, among other things, provides small businesses with direct assistance to stay in business and keep American workers employed. As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship last Congress, I was able to include the Keeping American Workers Paid and Employed Act , legislation that made $349 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses and nonprofits available through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). 
Good grief, this no-show is chairman of a Senate committee!
Furthermore, on December 27, 2020, President Trump signed into law the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (P.L. 116-260), which provided $1.4 trillion to fund the federal government through September 30, 2021.  While reducing federal spending is one of my top priorities, I believe it was appropriate during the COVID-19 pandemic to help small businesses stay open by providing government assistance, especially when much of their lost revenue came from government public health regulations. 
“See, it’s like this. Deficit spending is OK if Trump and I do it, even though it would have been unconstitutional if my dopey balanced budget amendment had passed. “Gee, I never thought of that. I would have violated my own law.”
On March 11, 2021, President Biden signed in to law the American Rescue PlanAct (P.L. 117-2), which was a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. Unlike previous COVID-19 relief packages, this bill was passed with a solely partisan vote in the Senate. I did not support the bill . . .
“Because I have no idea what was in it, and anyway, McConnell told me not to.”
 . . . as it spent hundreds of billions of dollars on items unrelated to COVID-19 recovery . . . 
Because I was told that the only reason for federal spending is COVID. So, not one Republican wanted to add dollars to an economy that was struggling, and desperately in need of help. “Hmm, I wonder why with a Democrat President, we Republicans suddenly are worried about deficits. We didn’t worry when we gave a big tax break to the rich while the wealthy Donald Trump was President.”
In addition to the wasteful spending enacted by the American Rescue Plan, President Biden has proposed even more wasteful spending in his proposed federal budget. Despite having just spent $1.9 trillion in the American Rescue Plan, President Biden has proposed a federal discretionary budget of more than $1.5 trillion. Now that the economy is re-opening . . .
“Because of the federal deficit spending, but I don’t want you to know that . . .”
. . . Congress will need to rein in reckless federal spending and prioritize policies that get Americans back to work and help the economy recover . . . 
“Which by some magic can be accomplished without federal deficit spending.”
It is an honor and a privilege to serve you as your United States Senator. I will keep your thoughts in mind as I consider these issues and continue working to ensure America remains a safe and prosperous nation.
“I have no idea what your thoughts were. I never read your letter, and I wouldn’t have understood it anyway. But I love being a Senator.”
Sincerely, Marco Rubio U.S. Senator 
Thank you, Senator, for your most informative letter. It confirms what we long have known.
 
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.

The most important problems in economics involve:
  1. Monetary Sovereignty describes money creation and destruction.
  2. Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics. Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps: Ten Steps To Prosperity:
  1. Eliminate FICA
  2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D, plus long-term care — for everyone
  3. Social Security for all
  4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone
  5. Salary for attending school
  6. Eliminate federal taxes on business
  7. Increase the standard income tax deduction, annually. 
  8. Tax the very rich (the “.1%”) more, with higher progressive tax rates on all forms of income.
  9. Federal ownership of all banks
  10. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99.9% 
The Ten Steps will grow the economy and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

LOSING AMERICA: What we have lost, what we are losing, what we will lose

As readers of this blog know, federal spending costs you nothing. The government creates all the dollars it uses, ad hoc, every time it pays a bill. That is the absolute fact of federal financing that debt-liars try to deny Since 1940, the federal government has created more than $22 trillion, net above taxes. That’s $22 trillion that even the tax scolds would have difficulty claiming as a taxpayers’ cost.  Early in the 1780a, the government created the very first dollars from thin air. It still creates dollars, and it will have no difficulty continuing to create endless dollars, also from thin air. Even if all federal taxation ended, the government could keep spending forever. Federal taxes do not pay for anything.Watch a Raging Forest Fire Surround You in 360 Degrees - Scientific American Deficit spending does not cause inflation. The lack of federal deficit spending leads to recessions and depressions, while increased deficit spending cures recessions and depressions. Inflation is caused by the shortages of key products and services. Today’s inflation is caused by the scarcity of food, oil, computer chips, labor, housing, and shipping. Inflation can be cured by federal deficit spending to procure and make available the scarce goods. Despite the lack of cost to anyone, the Republican Party unanimously has opposed such benefits as:
    1. Universal prekindergarten: For all 3- and 4-year-olds. The claimed advantages of which are: social and emotional development, higher overall academic achievement, increased school success, less grade repetition, better high school graduation rates, higher achievement scores, and more advanced pre-literacy and math skills, and perhaps equally important, allows those parents who need to work, to provide a safe, educational environment for their young children.
    2. Subsidized child care for families earning less than $300,000. Child care cost is often higher than the cost of housing, college tuition, transportation, or food. It can be hard to find quality child care that is affordable. High-quality child care programs may cost more than other options. But when children are in a quality child care program they are able to develop, explore, and grow.
    3. Fighting climate change: Tax credits for the energy industry and consumers who switch to renewables, retrofitting buildings, and public transit to run on renewable energy, and giving tax credits for people to buy electric vehicles that could lower the cost of these vehicles by as much as $12,500.
    4. Strengthened Medicare: Beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket spending for Medicare’s drug benefit (Part D) would be capped at $2,000 per year and the cost for some insulin would be limited to $35 per month. Hearing coverage would be included. (Dental and vision coverage were eliminated in a failed attempt to get debt-lie votes).
    5. Extended tax credits and child payments: A one-year extension of the enhanced child tax credit (CTC). Lower-income workers in particular will be receiving these payments.
    6. Improved public housing and more affordable housing: Rental assistance, and many other listed benefits for low-income housing.
    7. Four weeks of paid family leave: Covers multiple reasons for leave-taking: To welcome a new child by birth, adoption, or foster care; to recover from a serious illness; or to care for a seriously ill family member. No one will have to choose between their paycheck and caring for a loved one or between their jobs and their own health.
If you’re among the very rich who don’t care what happens to those who aren’t rich, the above may not matter to you, though even you will not be immune to the ravages of climate change. For the rest of us Americans and fellow human beings, the above constitute part of a long-overdue, financially wise, and moral effort. Sadly, ignorance hinders even the best-intentioned among us. Consider Sen. Bernie Sanders:
“The American people overwhelmingly demand that the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share of taxes.”
No, Bernie, corporations are not people. While proper taxing of wealthy people could narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest, taxing corporations has no economic value whatsoever. There is no “fair share” of a harmful program. The government doesn’t need or use tax dollars. Federal taxes simply take dollars from the private sector, and so, are recessionary.
“The American people overwhelmingly demand that we take on the greed of the pharmaceutical industry and lower the cost of prescription drugs.”
No, Bernie, it’s not “greed.” It’s just the normal profit motive. Price-fixing the drug industry simply will take research/development initiatives from the drug companies. There will be no benefit to the American public — if Medicare (aka the government) simply covers drug costs.
“The American people overwhelmingly demand that we expand Medicare to cover dental, eyeglasses and hearing aids.”
Yes, Bernie. There are zero good reasons why every part of the human body is covered, except teeth, eyes, and ears. What genius came up with those exclusions?
“The American people understand that we must act now to combat the existential threat of climate change and transform our energy system away from fossil fuels.”
Absolutely, Bernie. The human species faces several existential threats: Climate change, nuclear war, large meteors, supervolcanos, gamma-ray bursts, to name just a few. There’s not much we can do about what the universe will throw at us, but we have total control over climate change and nuclear war — or we would have total control if we could find a way to control the crazies. Aside from avoiding the total obliteration of the human species, we have the power to improve our lot. We have the brains and money to support our health and wellbeing, by simply recognizing that our Monetarily Sovereign government has the infinite power to create money and to control its value. We can educate all who want it, and provide shelter, food and medical aid to all who need it. Despite being social “herd” animals, we have the brainpower to stop following dictators, dictator wannabes, rogues, charlatans, ne’er do wells, and false prophets, whose lies and selfishness have led us to disaster after disaster for their own benefit. (You already know who they are.} As a people, we have lost so much to lies. The losses continue, accelerate, even. Today, American freedoms and democracy teeter on the edge.  Fully two-thirds of the Republican party claims the presidential election was “stolen,” and that false claim provides the excuse for growing totalitarianism. Today, dictatorships less often result from violent takeovers than by the creeping erosion of democracy. The rightward twisting of politics and laws, all justified by complaints from a psychopathic leader. We see it happening in America, as it has happened around the world. It begins with:Pied Piper phishing scheme infests victims with FlawedAmmyy, RMS RATs | SC Media
  1. A psychopathic and charismatic leader, who:
  2. Acts not with reason but with bravado, vindictiveness, and feigned toughness.
  3. Claims the nation is in danger from the poor and that only he can save it from invented enemies.
  4. Helps the rich to become richer.
  5. Flaunts the trappings of wealth and power, gold, jewelry, palaces
  6. Boasts about cheating in his personal and his business lives.
  7. Claims perfection in all things and denies ever being wrong or losing.
  8. Takes credit for everything and the blame for nothing.
  9. Demands strict loyalty to him personally, rather than to the nation.
  10. Surrounds himself with immoral, even criminal, sycophants whom he can control.
  11. Corrupts the judiciary to legalize his sins
  12. Corrupts and undermines a free press.
  13. Corrupts the military while expressing disdain for its leaders.
  14. Corrupts the educational system when it does not support his bigotry.
  15. Claims to be religious, but denigrates compassion.
  16. Supports and disseminates demonstrably preposterous lies and conspiracy therories.
  17. Is a traitor, who supports overthrowing the U.S. government.
  18. Is a hate monger.
  19. Is a nepotist and would-be dictator.
  20. Claims, with no evidence, that America’s presidential election was illegal, and has coerced the Republican party into support his lies.
America is too big and powerful to lose its freedoms and democracy to an invader. We instead are losing our freedoms and democracy to internal rot. The official mood no longer is “us.” It is “me only.” Selfishness is “smart.” The poor are “takers.” Foreigners are sinners. Cheating is clever. True patriots are “suckers.” Failure is someone else’s fault. It is bad enough that we have lost, are losing, and will lose the benefits that President Biden originally proposed. Worse, far worse, we are losing our heritage and our democracy. We Are Losing America. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.

The most important problems in economics involve:
  1. Monetary Sovereignty describes money creation and destruction.
  2. Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics. Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps: Ten Steps To Prosperity:
  1. Eliminate FICA
  2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D, plus long-term care — for everyone
  3. Social Security for all
  4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone
  5. Salary for attending school
  6. Eliminate federal taxes on business
  7. Increase the standard income tax deduction, annually. 
  8. Tax the very rich (the “.1%”) more, with higher progressive tax rates on all forms of income.
  9. Federal ownership of all banks
  10. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99.9% 
The Ten Steps will grow the economy and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The myths that stare you right in the face

Economics is a quasi-science that is battered by psychology, philosophy, tenure, reputation, politics, rumor, convoluted jargon, and oh yes, perhaps a touch of actual science. It is loaded with data, graphs, and charts, all of which tend to be ignored in favor of intuition and prior beliefs. These beliefs constitute the myths that stare you right in the face, so easily seen you only can be astounded that they still exist. Here is one example from Investopedia:
Debt-to-GDP Ratio By WILL KENTON, Updated June 30, 2021, Reviewed by JULIUS MANSA The debt-to-GDP ratio is the metric comparing a country’s public debt to its gross domestic product (GDP). By comparing what a country owes with what it produces, the debt-to-GDP ratio reliably indicates that particular country’s ability to pay back its debts. Often expressed as a percentage, this ratio can also be interpreted as the number of years needed to pay back debt if GDP is dedicated entirely to debt repayment.
You would be forgiven for believing that because a country’s public debt/GDP ratio “reliably indicates that particular country’s ability to pay back its debts,” you would assume that lower ratios indicate a better ability to pay debts. But no, this being economics, the public debt/GDP ratio does not mean that at all. In fact, the ratio has no meaning. Well, perhaps that’s a bit strong. It must have some meaning, but no one knows what the meaning is. Clearly, it has no predictive or analytical value with respect to a nation’s ability to pay its debts. If you want a good laugh, look at the following ratios, and try to use them to decide which nations are best able to pay their debts: Debt/GDP ratios by country Japan 237.00% Greece 177.00% Lebanon 151.00% Italy 135.00% Singapore 126.00% Cape Verde 125.00% Portugal 117.00% Angola 111.00% Mozambique 109.00% United States 107.00% Djibouti 104.00% Jamaica 103.00% Belgium 98.60% Dr Congo 98.50% France 98.10% Cyprus 95.50% Spain 95.50% Bahrain 93.40% Jordan 92.40% Canada 89.70% Argentina 89.40% Sri Lanka 86.80% Pakistan 84.80% Gambia 81.80% Suriname 81.40% United Kingdom 80.70% Mauritania 79.00% Costa Rica 77.47% Tunisia 76.70% Brazil 75.79% El Salvador 73.30% Croatia 73.20% Sao Tome And Principe 73.10% Austria 70.40% Belize 69.90% India 69.62% Bahamas 66.80% Hungary 66.30% Slovenia 66.10% Morocco 66.10% Albania 65.90% Qatar 65.80% Mauritius 64.60% Trinidad And Tobago 63.20% Yemen 63.20% Sierra Leone 63.00% Montenegro 62.27% South Africa 62.20% Malawi 62.00% Sudan 62.00% Uruguay 61.30% Israel 59.90% Germany 59.80% Finland 59.40% Ghana 59.30% Zambia 59.00% Ireland 58.80% Bolivia 57.70% Vietnam 57.50% Kenya 57.00% Ethiopia 57.00% Gabon 56.40% Seychelles 55.00% Mongolia 55.00% Kyrgyzstan 54.10% Zimbabwe 53.40% Laos 53.34% Namibia 53.30% Guyana 52.90% Nicaragua 52.50% Malaysia 52.50% Serbia 52.00% Dominican Republic 50.53% China 50.50% Ukraine 50.30% Myanmar 49.41% Ecuador 49.40% Iraq 49.40% Netherlands 48.60% Central African Republic 48.50% Azerbaijan 48.40% Colombia 48.40% Fiji 48.00% Slovakia 48.00% Tajikistan 47.90% Senegal 47.70% Oman 47.50% Chad 46.60% Algeria 46.10% Poland 46.00% Armenia 45.60% Mexico 45.50% Australia 45.10% Honduras 44.05% Equatorial Guinea 43.30% Malta 43.10% Georgia 43.00% Thailand 41.80% Philippines 41.50% Rwanda 41.10% Switzerland 41.00% Lesotho 40.90% North Macedonia 40.70% Norway 40.60% Papua New Guinea 39.80% Panama 39.48% Hong Kong 38.40% Iran 37.90% Tanzania 37.80% South Korea 37.70% Iceland 37.00% Latvia 36.90% Guinea Bissau 36.50% Lithuania 36.30% Romania 35.20% Sweden 35.10% Niger 34.70% Cameroon 34.00% Denmark 33.20% Turkey 33.10% Haiti 33.00% Liberia 32.00% Ivory Coast 31.90% Czech Republic 30.80% Nepal 30.20% Madagascar 30.10% Indonesia 29.80% Togo 29.50% Cambodia 29.40% Turkmenistan 29.30% Bangladesh 29.30% Taiwan 28.20% Chile 27.90% Guatemala 27.88% Peru 27.50% Moldova 27.40% Belarus 26.50% Maldives 24.80% Bosnia And Herzegovina 24.80% Bulgaria 24.50% Comoros 23.60% Uzbekistan 23.60% Botswana 23.00% Venezuela 23.00% Paraguay 22.90% Saudi Arabia 22.80% Burkina Faso 22.60% Luxembourg 22.10% Kazakhstan 21.90% Benin 21.60% Eritrea 20.10% New Zealand 19.00% United Arab Emirates 18.60% Cuba 18.20% Guinea 18.00% Nigeria 17.50% Libya 16.50% Palestine 16.40% Republic Of The Congo 15.70% Burundi 15.20% Kuwait 14.80% Russia 12.20% Bhutan 11.00% Eswatini 10.75% Egypt 9.00% Estonia 8.40% Afghanistan 7.10% Cayman Islands 5.70% Uganda 4.00% Brunei 2.40% Presumably, Afghanistan, Cayman Islands, Uganda, Libya, and Brunei are more financially secure than such “poor nations” as Japan, the United States, and Canada. And speaking of the US, we are just a touch “better” than Angola and Mozambique, and presumably not quite as solvent as France and Spain. Idiocy. The above data are not hidden. They are public knowledge, easily available for anyone to see. Yet repeatedly we see such incredibly uninformed statements as: “The ratio is used to gauge a country’s ability to repay its debt” and “The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the less likely the country will pay back its debt and the higher its risk of default, which could cause a financial panic in the domestic and international markets.” The problem with the Debt/GDP ratio is that it does not consider the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, nor does it consider what really is “debt” and what erroneously is termed “debt.” The US, United Kingdom, China, Canada, Australia and Japan, among others, are Monetarily Sovereign (MS). They never can run short of their own sovereign currencies. By contrast, France, Spain, Italy, Portugal are monetarily non-sovereign. They do not have a sovereign currency. They are users of the euro, which is the currency of the European Union, not of any one nation. So, euro nations can and do run short of euros, and have difficulty paying euro-denominated debts, no matter what the ratios show. Further, because an MS nation has the unlimited ability to create its own sovereign currency, it does not borrow that currency. Why would it? What erroneously is termed “debt” actually is one or both of:
  1. The net of the difference between tax money received by the government and money spent by the government (aka “deficits”) and/or
  2. The total of deposits into government savings accounts.
As for #1, it is just a balance sheet number that has no debt-like inferences, simply because the federal government does not use tax dollars to pay its bills. It creates new dollars, ad hoc. As for #2, it is not real “debt.” It is caretaker money, that the government does not touch. The accounts are similar to bank safe-deposit boxes, the contents of which are not the financial obligations of banks. In short, the federal government pays back “debt” with debt. The higher the debt, the more money there is in debt accounts with which to pay back the “debt.” A “debt” of $25 trillion means the federal government has $25 trillion sitting in Treasury security accounts with which to pay off those accounts. And, even if “Debt” actually referred to a government’s real debt, governments do not pay what they owe with GDP (private sector) money. They pay with government money. No government is able to foist its debts onto the private sector. Finally, the Debt/GDP ratio is the classic apples/oranges comparison. The first term (“Debt”) has to do with a net historical accounting over the life of the nation, while the second term (GDP) is for one-year only. For all the reasons mentioned above, the Debt/GDP ratio is meaningless, having zero predictive or analytical use, yet economics, politicians, and the media refer to it continually, as though it had some special power. Though the myth stares them in the face, they continue to fall for it, like a mouse repeatedly caught in the same trap. “Deficits” which actually should be called “surpluses,” because they mostly are an accounting of the dollars the central government pumps into the economy. GDP is a common measure of a nation’s economy, and by formula, the greater the “deficit” (economic surplus), the greater is GDP. This easily can be seen in the following graph:
Red line indicates deficits. Vertical gray bars indicate recessions.
The graph indicates that:
  1. Recessions are preceded by reductions in federal “deficit” (economic surplus) growth
  2. Recessions are cured by increases in federal “deficit” (economic surplus) growth.
Despite the well-known and obvious positive effect that federal “deficits” (economic surpluses) have on economic growth, economists, politicians, and the media almost universally decry anything that will “increase the deficit” or “increase the debt.” Why is adding dollars (aka “deficits”) to the economy so disliked, when it is the only way an economy can grow? Why is the federal government’s infinite ability to create dollars so misunderstood, when it has demonstrated this ability for the past 80 years? Why is the obvious such a mystery? There are only two possible answers. Either the vast majority of economists, politicians, and media people are too lazy and stupid to recognize simple fact, or the vast majority of economists, politicians, and media people are too bribed by the rich to admit simple fact. This ignorance, whether feined or real, truly is disgusting. It hurts you every day as it denies you the benefits you could and should receive from the federal government. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.

The most important problems in economics involve:
  1. Monetary Sovereignty describes money creation and destruction.
  2. Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics. Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps: Ten Steps To Prosperity:
  1. Eliminate FICA
  2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D, plus long-term care — for everyone
  3. Social Security for all
  4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone
  5. Salary for attending school
  6. Eliminate federal taxes on business
  7. Increase the standard income tax deduction, annually. 
  8. Tax the very rich (the “.1%”) more, with higher progressive tax rates on all forms of income.
  9. Federal ownership of all banks
  10. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99.9% 
The Ten Steps will grow the economy and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY