Historical claims the Federal Debt is a “ticking time bomb.” This version updated 11/3/2023

The U.S. federal government is not like state/local governments, not like euro governments, not like businesses, and not like you and me.

It uniquely is Monetarily Sovereign. It cannot, unwillingly, run short of its own sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar. As real experts have said:

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

Quote from 60 Minutes: Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.

Press Conference: Mario Draghi, President of the Monetarily Sovereign ECB, 9 January 2014 Question: I am wondering: can the ECB ever run out of money? Mario Draghi: Technically, no. We cannot run out of money.

Periodically, we publish yet another shrieking claim that the U.S. federal debt is “unsustainable” and a “ticking time bomb.” This lie has been told to you every year (really, almost every day) since 1940, and that bomb never has exploded, nor ever will.

Rather than repeat the entire list of  the thousands of lies to which you have been subject, I will list samples here as a reference, and add periodically, at the end, new “federal debt is a ticking time bomb” lies as I encounter them:

 ————————//—————————

September 26, 1940, New York Times: The federal budget was a “ticking time-bomb which can eventually destroy the American system,” said Robert M. Hanes, president of the American Bankers Association. 

September 26, 1940, New York Times: The federal budget was a “ticking time-bomb which can eventually destroy the American system,” said Robert M. Hanes, president of the American Bankers Association. 
By 1960: the debt was “threatening the country’s fiscal future,” said Secretary of Commerce, Frederick H. Mueller. (“The enormous cost of various Federal programs is a time-bomb threatening the country’s fiscal future, Secretary of Commerce Frederick H. Mueller warned here yesterday.”)

By 1983“The debt probably will explode in the third quarter of 1984,” said Fred Napolitano, former president of the National Association of Home Builders.

In 1984: AFL-CIO President Lane Kirkland said. “It’s a time bomb ticking away.”

In 1985“The federal deficit is ‘a ticking time bomb, and it’s about to blow up,” U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell. (Remember him?)

Later in 1985: Los Angeles Times: “We labeled the deficit a ‘ticking time bomb’ that threatens to permanently undermine the strength and vitality of the American economy.”

In 1987: Richmond Times-Dispatch – Richmond, VA: “100TH CONGRESS FACING U.S. DEFICIT’ TIME BOMB'”

Later in 1987: The Dallas Morning News: “A fiscal time bomb is slowly ticking that, if not defused, could explode into a financial crisis within the next few years for the federal government.”

In 1989: FORTUNE Magazine: “A TIME BOMB FOR U.S. TAXPAYERS

In 1992: The Pantagraph – Bloomington, Illinois: “I have seen where politicians in Washington have expressed little or no concern about this ticking time bomb they have helped to create, that being the enormous federal budget deficit, approaching $4 trillion.

Later in 1992: Ross Perot: “Our great nation is sitting right on top of a ticking time bomb. We have a national debt of $4 trillion.”

In 1995: Kansas City Star: “Concerned citizens. . . regard the national debt as a ticking time bomb poised to explode with devastating consequences at some future date.”

In 2003: Porter Stansberry, for the Daily Reckoning: “Generation debt is a ticking time bomb . . . with about ten years left on the clock.”

In 2004: Bradenton Herald: “A NATION AT RISK: TWIN DEFICIT A TICKING TIME BOMB

In 2005: Providence Journal: “Some lawmakers see the Medicare drug benefit for what it is: a ticking time bomb.”

In 2006: NewsMax.com, “We have to worry about the deficit . . . when we combine it with the trade deficit we have a real ticking time bomb in our economy,” said Mrs. Clinton.

In 2007: USA Today: “Like a ticking time bomb, the national debt is an explosion waiting to happen.

In 2010: Heritage Foundation: “Why the National Debt is a Ticking Time Bomb. Interest rates on government bonds are virtually guaranteed to jump over the next few years.

In 2010: Reason Alert: “. . . the time bomb that’s ticking under the federal budget like a Guy Fawkes’ powder keg.”

In 2011: Washington Post, Lori Montgomery:”. . . defuse the biggest budgetary time bombs that are set to explode.”

June 19, 2013Chamber of Commerce: Safety net spending is a ‘time bomb’, By Jim Tankersley: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is worried that not enough Americans are worried about social safety net spending. The nation’s largest business lobbying group launched a renewed effort Wednesday to reduce projected federal spending on safety-net programs, labeling them a “ticking time bomb” that, left unchanged, “will bankrupt this nation.”

On June 15, 2014: CBN News: “The United States of Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb

On June 18, 2015The ticking economic time bomb that presidential candidates are ignoring: Fortune Magazine, Shawn Tully,

On February 10, 2016The Daily Bell“Obama’s $4.1 Trillion Budget Is Latest Sign of America’s Looming Collapse”

On January 23, 2017Trump’s ‘Debt Bomb‘: Deficit May Grow, Defense Budget May Not, By Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr.

On January 27, 2017: America’s “debt bomb is going to explode.” That’s according to financial strategist Peter Schiff. Schiff said that while low interest rates had helped keep a lid on U.S. debt, it couldn’t be contained for much longer. Interest rates and inflation are rising, creditors will demand higher premiums, and the country is headed “off the edge of a cliff.”

On April 28, 2017Debt in the U.S. Fuel for Growth or Ticking Time Bomb?, American Institute for Economic Research, by Max Gulker, PhD – Senior Research Fellow, Theodore Cangeros

February 16, 2018 America’s Debt Bomb By Andrew Soergel, Senior Reporter: Conservatives and deficit hawks are hurling criticism at Washington for deepening America’s debt hole.

April 18, 2018 By Alan Greenspan and John R. Kasich: “Time is running short, and America’s debt time bomb continues to tick.”

January 10, 2019Unfunded Govt. Liabilities — Our Ticking Time Bomb. By Myra Adams, Tick, tick, tick goes the time bomb of national doom.

January 18, 2019; 2019 Is Gold’s Year To Shine (And The Ticking U.S. Debt Time-Bomb) By Gavin Wendt

April 10, 2019, The National Debt: America’s Ticking Time Bomb. TIL Journal. Entire nations can go bankrupt. One prominent example was the *nation of Greece which was threatened with insolvency, a decade ago. Greece survived the economic crisis because the European Union and the IMF bailed the nation out.

July 11, 2019National debt is a ‘ticking time bomb: Sen. Mike Lee

SEP 12, 2019Our national ticking time bomb, By BILL YEARGIN SPECIAL TO THE SUN SENTINEL | At some point, investors will become concerned about lending to a debt-riddled U.S., which will result in having to offer higher interest rates to attract the money. Even with rates low today, interest expense is the federal government’s third-highest expenditure following the elderly and military. The U.S. already borrows all the money it uses to pay its interest expense, sort of like a Ponzi scheme. Lack of investor confidence will only make this problem worse.

JANUARY 06, 2020, National debt is a time bomb, BY MARK MANSPERGER, Tri City Herald | The increase in the U.S. deficit last year was about $1.1 trillion, bringing our total national debt to more than $23 trillion! This fiscal year, the deficit is forecasted to be even higher, and when the economy eventually slows down, our annual deficits could be pushing $2 trillion a year! This is financial madness. there’s not going to be a drastic cut in federal expenditures — that is, until we go broke — nor are we going to “grow our way” out of this predicament. Therefore, to gain control of this looming debt, we’re going to have to raise taxes.

February 14, 2020, OMG! It’s February 14, 2020, and the national debt is still a ticking time bomb! The national debt: A ticking time bomb? America is “headed toward a crisis,” said Tiana Lowe in WashingonExaminer.com. The Treasury Department reported last week that the federal deficit swelled to more than $1 trillion in 2019 for the first time since 2012. Even more alarming was the report from the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicting that $1 trillion deficits will continue for the next 10 years, eventually reaching $1.7 trillion in 2030

April 26, 2020, ‘Catastrophic’: Why government debt is a ticking time bomb, Stephen Koukoulas, Yahoo Finance  [Re. Monetarily Sovereign Australia’s debt.]

August 29, 2020LOS ANGELES, California: America’s mountain of debt is a ticking time bomb  The United States not only looks ill, but also dead broke. To offset the pandemic-induced “Great Cessation,” the U.S. Federal Reserve and Congress have marshalled staggering sums of stimulus spending out of fear that the economy would otherwise plunge to 1930s soup kitchen levels. Assuming that America eventually defeats COVID-19 and does not devolve into a Terminator-like dystopia, how will it avoid the approaching fiscal cliff and national bankruptcy?

April 16, 2021NATIONAL POLICY: ECONOMY AND TAXES / MARK ALEXANDER / The National Debt Clock: A Ticking Time Bomb: At the moment, our national debt exceeds $28 TRILLION — about 80% held as public debt and the rest as intragovernmental debt. That is $225,000 per taxpayer. Federal annual spending this year is almost $8 trillion, and more than half of that is deficit spending — piling on the national debt.

June 17, 2022 Time Bomb On National Debt Is Counting Down Faster Thanks To Fed’s Rate Hike,  Tim Brown /We are now staring down the barrel of the end of the U.S. economy based on fiat money, printed out of thin air but charged back to the people at ridiculous interest rates. Now, the national debt is approaching $31 trillion, which is $12 trillion more than when Donald Trump took office in 2017 and more than half of that debt was tacked on in his final year. Then we’ve had the disastrous year and a half of Joe Biden. Now, the Fed is now hiking its rates and that spells even more trouble for the national debt and the economy at large.

December 4, 2022 America’s ticking time bomb: $66 trillion in debt that could crash the economy By Stephen Moore, The national debt is $31 trillion when including Social Security’s and Medicare’s unfunded liabilities. Wake up, America. That ticking sound you’re hearing is the American debt time bomb that with each passing day is getting precariously close to detonating and crashing the US economy.

January 13, 2023. A ticking time bomb in the U.S. economy is running perilously close to detonation. Long considered a harbinger of bad luck, Friday, Jan. 13 came with a warning for Congress that the country could default on its debt as soon as June. With the U.S. reaching its debt limit of $31.4 trillion on Jan. 19, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers to increase or suspend the debt ceiling.

February 5 2023 ‘The world’s largest Ponzi scheme’: Peter Schiff just blasted the US debt ceiling drama. Here are 3 assets he trusts amid major market uncertainty Story by Bethan Moorcraft, A ticking time bomb in the U.S. economy is running perilously close to detonation. With the U.S. reaching its debt limit of $31.4 trillion on Jan. 19, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers to increase or suspend the debt ceiling.

April 22, 2023 The Debt Ceiling Debate Is About More Than Debt, Jim Tankersley, WASHINGTON — Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California has repeatedly said that he and his fellow House Republicans are refusing to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, and risking economic catastrophe, to force a reckoning on America’s $31 trillion national debt. “Without exaggeration, America’s debt is a ticking time bomb that will detonate unless we take serious, responsible action,” he said this week.

November 3, 2023 The Fuse on America’s Debt Bomb Just Got Shorter, J Antoni Heritage Organization. The Treasury is now on track to borrow almost as much in just six months as it did in the previous 12 months. That’s nearly a doubling of the deficit. Because the federal debt is $33.7 trillion, just a 1 percent increase in yields adds $337 billion to the annual cost of servicing the debt over time. Absent spending reform, eventually no one will be willing to hold the bomb anymore, and the yields on U.S. debt will begin to resemble those in Argentina.

———————–//———————–

If, year after year , you keep predicting something is imminent, yet it never happens, at what point do you reexamine your beliefs? Apparently never, for the debt heads. Truly pitiful.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.

The most important problems in economics involve:

  1. Monetary Sovereignty describes money creation and destruction.
  2. Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics. Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps

Ignorance or Lies? The single worst economic scare-mongering bullshit ever encountered.

J.D. Tuccille, the Libertarians, and surprisingly, the highly respected University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton School may have set a world record for utter nonsense and wrongheaded scaremongering Moving on from the “ticking debt time bomb” that never explodes, we have arrived at “20 Years to Disaster.” Don’t you love predictions of 20 years? They are so safe. You can’t be proved wrong. Twenty 20 years from now, the world will have changed many times, and anyway, no one will remember what you said. Aside from the idiocy of making a 20-year economic prediction, the entire premise of the article is wrong.

20 Years to Disaster The United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt.” J.D. TUCCILLE | 11.6.2023 7:00 AM

For decades, budgetary experts have warned that the U.S. federal government is backing itself—and the country—into a corner with expenditures that consistently exceed revenues, driving the national debt ever higher.

What Tuccille, the Libertarians, and the Wharton School seem not to understand is that federal deficits are absolutely necessary for economic growth. You have seen this graph many times: GRAPH I
Federal “Deficits” (red) and Gross Domestic Product (blue) rise in parallel.
And this graph: GRAPH II.
Before every recession (vertical gray bars), federal deficits (blue) decline. Then, to cure the recession, the government increases federal deficit spending.

The latest red flag is raised by the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), which says that the federal government has no more than 20 years to mend its ways. After this time, it will be too late to remedy the situation.

Every time the federal government “controls” (i.e. cuts) spending, we have recessions if we are lucky and depressions if we are not as fortunate:

U.S. depressions come on the heels of federal surpluses.

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

Having learned nothing from history, Tucille, the Libertarians, and Wharton continue the same old ignorance about federal deficit spending: They equate personal finances with our Monetarily Sovereign government’s finances, not recognizing the massive differences between the two. While monetarily, non-sovereign entities like you and me need to run balanced budgets over the long term, or we’ll face bankruptcy, the federal government must never run a balanced budget and never will face bankruptcy.

20 Years to Control Spending

“Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation)” Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters, authors of the October 6 Penn Wharton Budget Model brief, write in summarizing their findings.

“Unlike technical defaults where payments are merely delayed, this default would be much larger and reverberate across the U.S. and world economies.”

To say that the above is 100% bullshit would be to insult bullshit. Here’s why:
    1. The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the infinite ability to create its sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar. It has infinite dollars with which to pay its bills. It never needs to default.
    2. Despite concerns about “debt monetization” (aka “money printing’) causing inflation, this never has happened to any nation in world history. All inflations have been caused by shortages of crucial goods and services, most often oil and food.
    3. Many years of massive U.S. federal deficits didn’t cause today’s inflation. Only when COVID caused shortages of oil, food, computer parts, shipping, metals, lumber, labor, etc., did inflation arise. Now, the government’s massive spending to prevent and cure recession continues while inflation ebbs. The massive federal spending has helped cure the shortages and thus cure the inflation.

The reason for worrying about accumulating deficits and the resulting growing debt, the authors explain, is that “government debt reduces economic activity by crowding out private capital formation and by requiring future tax increases or spending cuts to accommodate future interest payments.”

1. The historical fact that increasing government deficit spending increases economic activity (See Graph I, above) seems lost on the Wharton authors. Mathematically, GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports 2. There is no historical example of “crowding out of capital formation.” In fact, the federal money added to the economy increases the funds available to the private sector for capital formation. 3. Future tax increases are not necessary because federal taxes do not fund federal spending:

A. All federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt by the U.S. Treasury. The tax dollars come from the M2 money supply measure, but when they reach the Treasury, they become part of no money supply measure. The reason: The Treasury’s money supply, being infinite, cannot be measured.

B. Even if the federal government collected zero tax dollars, it could continue spending forever. It has the infinite ability to create spending dollars.

C. The purposes of federal taxes are not to fund federal spending but rather:

a. To control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.

b. To assure demand for and acceptance of the U.S. dollar by requiring taxes to be paid in dollars.

c. To fool the public (and presumably Wharton economists) into believing federal benefits require federal taxes. (This last purpose is promulgated by the rich to discourage the populace from demanding benefits that would narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest.)

If debt gets too big, lenders can’t be paid back, credibility is shot, the dollar loses value, and the economy tanks.

This is the oft-claimed “ticking time bomb” that never seems to explode. There never has been and never will be a time when the federal debt “gets too big” to be paid. Again, the Wharton economists demonstrate they don’t understand the differences between a Monetarily Sovereign government and a monetarily non-sovereign government.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

“It would be an unfettered economic catastrophe,” economists Joseph Brusuelas and Tuan Nguyen predicted earlier this year of such a scenario. “Our model indicates that unemployment would surge above 12% in the first six months, the economy would contract by more than 10%, triggering a deep and lasting recession, and inflation would soar toward 11% over the next year.”

Strange how history says exactly the opposite. Following many years of massive federal spending, unemployment was at historical lows. The reason: Federal spending stimulated GDP growth, which required more labor.

So long as investors believe federal officials will eventually balance their books, you have a grace period as debt grows—that is until the debt burden is so enormous that it crushes economic activity.

History shows that balancing the federal books creates recessions and depressions. The so-called “debt burden” is not debt, and it’s not a burden. It’s deposits into Treasury security bills, notes, and bond accounts which are owned by the depositors. It’s not debt because the government never touches the dollars in those accounts. The government creates dollars at will. It has no need to borrow dollars, and indeed, the U.S. federal government never borrows dollars. To “pay off” the debt (that isn’t debt), the government merely returns the dollars in the accounts to their owners. This is no burden at all. The purpose of T-securities is not to provide spending money to the government but rather to give the world with a safe, interest-paying place to store unused dollars. This makes the dollar an attractive international medium of exchange.

“Even with the most favorable of assumptions for the United States, PWBM estimates that a maximum debt-GDP ratio of 200 percent can be sustained,” the authors add. “This 200 percent value is computed as an outer bound using various favorable assumptions: a more plausible value is closer to 175 percent, and, even then, it assumes that financial markets believe that the government will eventually implement an efficient closure rule.” (That’s a mix of tax and spending changes to curtail deficits and debt.)

As we have demonstrated numerous times, the Debt/GDP ratio is meaningless. It tells nothing about the current or future health of an economy. It predicts nothing; it evaluates nothing. It is 100% meaningless. That is why economists who don’t understand the fundamentals of Monetary Sovereignty love to quote it.

The 20-year countdown assumes that investors remain optimistic about the willingness and ability of U.S. officials to bring spending in-line with tax revenues. “Once financial markets believe otherwise, financial markets can unravel at smaller debt-GDP ratios,” according to the PWBM analysis.

We suspect financial markets understand history better than the economists at Wharton. We suspect they know that when the federal government spends more, stock prices rise.
As federal deficit spending has increased, the value of corporate stock has risen.

As PWBM points out, “Financial markets demand a higher interest rate to purchase government debt as the supply of that debt increases… Forward-looking financial markets should demand an even higher return if they see debt increasing well into the future. Those higher borrowing rates, in turn, make debt grow even faster.”

That’s already happening.

Increasing Costs and a Looming Deadline To finance trillions of dollars in spending beyond what incoming revenue can support, the US Treasury is now issuing more debt in the form of Treasury securities than global financial markets can readily absorb,” Yahoo! Finance’s Rick Newman wrote on October 30.

“That forces the borrower—the US government—to pay higher interest rates, which in turn pushes up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in much of the Western world.”

Again, the Wharton experts misunderstand Monetary Sovereignty and the realities of federal financing. The federal government does not finance spending by borrowing (“issuing debt.”) It finances spending by creating dollars, ad hoc. It can allow as much or as little in T-security deposits as it wishes. If the public fails to invest as much as the Federal Reserve wishes (to stabilize the dollar), the Fed merely uses its infinite money creation ability to fill the gap. Federal spending never is constrained by the public’s desire to own T-securities. As for interest rates, the Fed sets them not to attract depositors but to control inflation. If the Fed smells inflation, it raises rates. If the inflation scare passes, the Fed lowers rates. This has nothing to do with any need for deposits into T-security accounts. (Sadly, raising interest rates, far from moderating inflation, exacerbates it by raising prices. The only thing that moderates inflation is federal spending to ease shortages of critical goods and services.)

Just when the U.S. federal government hits that magic unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio of between 175 and 200 percent depends on investor confidence and how much the markets charge to finance more borrowing. PWBM estimates it will happen between 2040 and 2045—if we’re lucky.

The notion of a “magic, unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio” is utter nonsense. Japan already has exceeded that meaningless ratio.

The U.S. Treasury concedes that “since 2001, the federal government’s budget has run a deficit each year. Starting in 2016, increases in spending on Social Security, health care, and interest on federal debt have outpaced the growth of federal revenue.”

The 2001 Clinton surplus caused the 2001 recession.  See Graph I.

Options for Fixing the Mess In September, PWBM explored three policy options to render fiscal policy less disastrous: increasing taxes on high incomes, reforms to Social Security and Medicare that reduce payouts and increase taxes, and a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.

Increasing taxes on high incomes would help narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest, which would be a good thing. It would do nothing to improve the federal government’s already infinite ability to pay its creditors. “Reforms” to Social Security and Medicare (i.e. cuts to benefits paid to those who need them most, while increasing taxes on those who can afford them least) also would do nothing to improve the federal government’s bill-paying ability. The “mix of tax increases and spending cuts” would take spending dollars from the private sector and cause a recession or depression.  Remember this equation: GDP = Federal + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Spending cuts and tax increases would decrease Federal + Nonfederal Spending, which would reduce GDP, i.e. cause a recession or depression. Simple mathematics.

The authors predict entitlement reforms and a mix of tax increases and spending cuts would both stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio, with entitlement reform allowing the greatest economic growth.

Hmmm. Giving the economy fewer Social Security and Medicare dollars and taking dollars from the economy by increasing taxes would “allow the greatest economic growth”???? Also, pouring water out of a bucket fills it??

The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank has tax revenues hitting 19 percent of GDP last year—the highest share in two decades. The IRS may scream about a “tax gap” between what is owed and what it collects, and lawmakers may supercharge the tax agency with funds, but fixing the federal government’s spendthrift ways by squeezing taxpayers won’t just be unpopular—it’s a scheme that defies historical trends.

Spending cuts and entitlement reforms will also elicit resistance. But at least they’re within reach of lawmakers who could spend no more than they collect—or even to run surpluses to pay down debt.

Twenty years to fix the federal budget should be plenty of time. But brace yourself. The record so far suggests it won’t be enough.

The above is so staggeringly ignorant one scarcely can believe it was written by humans. Indeed, it must have been written by an Artificial Intelligence gone rogue. Cuts to federal spending and tax increases do the same: They take dollars out of the economy and cause recessions and depressions. The Libertarian (aka anarchist) comments are not surprising. Anti-government ignorance is expected from them. But, if this is the best to come out of Wharton, heaven help its students. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

It figured: New Speaker Johnson’s first act is to propose austerity. Anyone surprised?

With a new House Speaker who is an extreme right-winger, a leader in attempts to overturn the election, and who justifies everything by his conversations with God, you could only expect idiocy.

Johnson has not disappointed.

He even receives plaudits from Libertarian Eric Boehm, further evidence of his woolyheadedness.

Here are some excerpts from Reason.com, aka “Nonsense.com.”

New Speaker Mike Johnson’s First Good Idea: A Debt Commission A debt commission won’t solve any of the federal government’s fiscal problems, but it’s the first step toward taking them seriously. ERIC BOEHM | 10.27.2023 1:10 PM

Just moments after picking up the gavel, newly elected Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R–La.) endorsed an idea that manages to be both eye-roll-inducing and really important.

“The greatest threat to our national security is our nation’s debt,” Johnson said during his first speech from the speaker’s dais in the House chamber.

It isn’t the most stupid comment any politician ever has made, but it’s right up there with “Global warming is a Chinese hoax” and “COVID is like the common cold. It’ll just go away.”

Not only does the statement omit Russia and China as threats to our national security, but says the national debt is more to be feared. Johnson won’t tell you:

  1. It isn’t “national.” It’s T-securities owned by private citizens and by governments.
  2. It isn’t even “debt.” It’s deposits into accounts wholly owned by the above-mentioned private citizens and governments, not by the U.S. government. The federal government, which never borrows U.S. dollars, neither needs nor even touches those deposits.
  3. It isn’t a threat to anything or anyone. It’s just deposits easily paid back by simply returning the deposits. That is how the federal government always pays back T-security deposits.

“We know this is not going to be an easy task, and tough decisions will have to be made, but the consequences—if we don’t act now—are unbearable.”

What exactly are the “unbearable consequences”? Johnson, like all the other debt nuts, never says, probably because there are zero consequences to the government accepting deposits into T-security accounts. Zero.

There are consequences to large deficits, from which the “national debt” evolves, but those are good consequences, including economic growth and more benefits to Americans (health, infrastructure, military security, etc.) Federal deficit spending grows GDP.

Then, Johnson promised to “establish a bipartisan debt commission to begin working on this crisis immediately.”

This is, in some ways, a pretty silly idea. After all, Johnson is the newly elected leader of Congress, a group of elected officials from two political parties with the constitutionally granted power to control the federal government’s fiscal policies like borrowing and spending.

Congress is, quite literally, a bipartisan commission tasked with managing the debt.

Within Congress, there’s also a Budget Committee, which is, of course, a bipartisan group of lawmakers tasked even more explicitly with determining how much the government can afford to spend, what it should spend tax revenue on, and when there’s been too much borrowing.

Anyone who understands Monetary Sovereignty knows that the federal government’s ability to “afford to spend” is infinite.

Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

So, yes, the very notion of a new and special bipartisan commission that’s going to do the thing Congress is already supposed to be doing is a little funny and more than a little redundant.

And yet, it’s obvious that something new has to be tried. “In the time it will take me to deliver this speech, we’ll go up another $20 million in debt. It’s unsustainable,” Johnson pointed out on Wednesday—and it wasn’t a very long speech.

And there’s the favorite word of the debt nuts: “Unsustainable.”

Why is it unsustainable? The debt nuts never say. The so-called, misnamed “debt” (deposits) has been growing for over 80 years, and still, we sustain it.

“Unsustainable” falls into the same category as “unbearable consequences.” It’s a frightening term that has no basis in reality.

Even if it were a debt (which it isn’t), our Monetarily Sovereign government services any obligation of any size simply by creating dollars, which it has the infinite ability to do.

And no, the “debt” doesn’t cause inflation, recession, depression, crime, poverty, or disease. About the only thing the debt-that-isn’t-debt causes is muddle-brained thinking by Libertarians and other debt nuts.

As an oft-given reminder to our readers, here is what happens when the “debt” is reduced by cutting deficits and running surpluses:

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807

1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819

1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837

1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857

1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873

1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893

1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929

1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

The above happens when the federal deficit is eliminated and becomes a federal surplus. And this is what happens when the federal deficit simply is reduced, not eliminated.

The red line is the annual change in the federal deficit. Vertical gray bars are recessions. Recessions occur when federal deficits decline because economic growth requires a growing money supply. Recessions are cured by increased federal deficits.

Economic growth, by its definition, requires the economy to have more money. When the federal government isn’t adding dollars by running deficits or even adding too few dollars by adding too-small deficits, we have recessions.

What can a bipartisan commission on the debt accomplish? The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which has been advocating for such a commission, argues that special congressional task forces can focus discussions, generate greater public awareness of major issues, and create the opportunity for lawmakers to put all ideas on the table.

You can’t discuss “issues” and “ideas” when the starting point is, “All deficits and debt are bad.” It’s like discussing ideas for curing thirst when your starting point is, “Water is bad for you.”

In 1983, for example, Social Security was approaching insolvency—a problem that sounds familiar today—when a commission of congressional leaders and presidential appointees worked out a series of potential fixes. Afterward, Congress enacted many of those reforms, making Social Security solvent for another five decades.

Social Security, being an agency of the U.S. federal government, is as solvent as the government itself, i.e., infinitely solvent. The so-called insolvency comes from the lie that FICA funds Social Security.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

FICA funds nothing. All FICA dollars originate in the M2 money supply measure. When they reach the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure because the Treasury has infinite dollars.

Thus, FICA dollars effectively are destroyed. No federal agency can go bankrupt unless Congress and the President want it to go bankrupt.

That includes such agencies as the White House, Congress, the Supreme Court, and the military branches. The so-called reforms meant making Americans pay more and receive less.

It’s like solving the hunger problem by making poor Americans pay more for less food and calling that a “reform.”

More recently, there was the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, formed by President Barack Obama in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. It produced a plan that could have reduced the debt by $4 trillion over 10 years by raising taxes, cutting spending, and selling off federal property.

Translation: Obama’s plan would have taken dollars from the economy, given them to the federal government that doesn’t need them, and plunged America into a recession if we were lucky, but more likely a depression.

Even though most of those proposals were never enacted, the CRFB points hopefully to the fact that 11 of the 18 commission members supported the final recommendations, including five Republicans and five Democrats.

It is sad that 11 of the 18 commission members either were ignorant of economics or deliberately hoped for a recession or depression.

The idea for another commission on the deficit has been kicking around for a few years but has recently gained steam. The moderate lawmakers in the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus have endorsed the idea.

Polling by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which advocates for balancing the budget, shows that majorities of both Republican and Democratic voters support the formation of a commission.

As history shows, a balanced budget may be necessary for monetarily non-sovereign entities like cities, counties, states, businesses, and individuals; it unnecessarily will cause recessions and depressions in Monetarily Sovereign nations.

How would it work? Reps. Bill Huizenga (R–Mich.) and Scott Peters (D–Calif.) have introduced a bill to establish a 16-member commission that would include four experts from outside Congress (to be appointed by party leaders from both the House and Senate).

The commission’s recommendations would receive priority consideration by Congress and would be scheduled for a final vote during the lame-duck session after the 2024 election.

The problem is the commission, no doubt, will be as ignorant as Congress. Obama had his commission. Fortunately, its recommendations did not become law, so we avoided the depression.

That timing reveals something about the real reason why members of Congress like this sort of idea: because it allows them to avoid accountability for doing the thing they’re supposed to be doing in the first place.

It allows Congress to avoid economic facts and to do the bidding of the very rich, who grow when federal benefits to the poor are reduced. This widens the Gap between the rich and the rest, making the rich richer.

Recall what Johnson said on Wednesday: this will be a process that requires “tough decisions.” There’s nothing all that complicated about balancing the federal budget.

Members of Congress don’t need notable experts or a bipartisan commission to tell them that closing the deficit will require raising taxes or cutting spending (or some combination of the two). That’s literally all there is to it.

A prime measurement of the economy is the Gross Domestic Product. Raising taxes and/or cutting spending reduces the amount of money in the economy, which, by mathematical definition, reduces GDP.

A reduction in GDP is known as a “recession” or a “depression.” That’s literally all there is to it.

But those decisions become tough because politicians know that voters don’t like having their taxes raised. They also know that cutting even the most useless and wasteful government spending will spur outrage from whatever particular interest group benefits from it.

Imagine that. Voters don’t like money being taken out of their pockets. Who would have guessed that?

In the end, the right way to think about a bipartisan commission on the debt is as a sort of political suicide pact.

No, a commission to lower the debt or balance the budget is an economic suicide pact.

It means that members of both parties are committed to, at the very least, proposing ideas for balancing the budget—and that, in turn, should limit some of the partisan screeching that makes it so hard for Congress to make these decisions under normal circumstances.

Why do they assume that balancing the federal budget should be a goal? There is zero evidence that a balanced federal budget benefits the nation, the government, or anyone.

How about a commission to propose ideas for improving the lives of Americans? 

Both sides will have to take responsibility for ending the government’s addiction to borrowing.

The article began with a lie (The greatest threat to our national security is our nation’s debt”), and now it ends with a lie (“The government’s addiction to borrowing”). The U.S. federal government does not borrow.

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.

Will it work? Probably not, but nothing else seems more promising right now. Johnson’s got his work cut out, but this is a worthwhile effort.

If this indeed is Johnson’s goal, he will be remembered as the most ignorant, traitorous, damaging Speaker in American history — a man who tried to overturn our democracy and now hopes to cause America’s first depression since 1929.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty

Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Why is medical care unaffordable for so many Americans?

We’ll begin with a few facts:
  1. The U.S. federal government is Monetarily Sovereign (See: Monetary Sovereignty.)  It created the first U.S. dollars from thin air, and it retains the unlimited ability to create more U.S. dollars. The government never unintentionally can run short of U.S. dollars. Even if all federal tax collections ended, the federal government could continue spending forever.
  2. State and local governments are monetarily non-sovereign. They can and often do run short of dollars.
  3. Because the U.S. government cannot run short of dollars, it has no need for tax dollars. In fact, it destroys all tax dollars upon receipt at the Treasury. (See: “Does the Federal Government Really Destroy Your Tax Dollars?“) Taxes are paid with dollars from the M2 money supply, and when they reach the Treasury, they cease to exist in any money supply measure. Thus, the federal government does not spend taxpayers’ dollars.
  4. By contrast, state/local governments do need and spend taxpayers’ dollars.
  5. Contrary to popular wisdom, federal spending does not cause inflation. Inflation always is caused by shortages of critical goods and services, usually oil, food, and labor. (See: “Cause of Inflation.”) Inflations can be cured by additional government spending to cure shortages.
  6. Federal deficit spending is necessary for economic growth. The greater the spending, the greater the growth. (See: “Four Reasons Why Federal Deficits Are Absolutely Necessary.“)
Keep those facts in mind as you read excerpts from the following article:New Oxfam Poll: Most Americans Believe We Should Help Working Poor |  HuffPost Impact

The Commonwealth Fund Health Care Affordability Survey, fielded for the first time in 2023, asked U.S. adults with health insurance, and those without, about their ability to afford their health care — whether costs prevented them from getting care, whether provider bills left them with medical debt, and how these problems affected their lives.

Many Americans have inadequate coverage that’s led to delayed or forgone care, significant medical debt, and worsening health problems.

While having health insurance is always better than not having it, the survey findings challenge the implicit assumption that health insurance in the United States buys affordable access to care.

Difficulties affording care are experienced by people in employer, marketplace, and individual market plans, as well as people enrolled in Medicaid and Medicare.

Private insurance is burdened by the profit motive, which restricts the number and amount of benefits offered. However the federal government has no profit motive and has the unlimited ability to create dollars. So why is Medicare inadequate?

For the survey, our analysis focuses on 6,121 working-age respondents, those 19 to 64. 

Survey Highlights

    • Large shares of insured working-age adults surveyed said it was very or somewhat difficult to afford their health care: 43 percent of those with employer coverage, 57 percent with marketplace or individual-market plans, 45 percent with Medicaid, and 51 percent with Medicare.
    • Many insured adults said they or a family member had delayed or skipped needed health care or prescription drugs because they couldn’t afford it in the past 12 months: 29 percent of those with employer coverage, 37 percent covered by marketplace or individual-market plans, 39 percent enrolled in Medicaid, and 42 percent with Medicare.
    • Cost-driven delays in getting care or missed care made people sicker. Fifty-four percent of people with employer coverage who reported delaying or forgoing care because of costs said a health problem of theirs or a family member got worse because of it, as did 61 percent in marketplace or individual-market plans, 60 percent with Medicaid, and 63 percent with Medicare.
    • Insurance coverage didn’t prevent people from incurring medical debt.Thirty percent of adults with employer coverage were paying off debt from medical or dental care, as were 33 percent of those in marketplace or individual-market plans, 21 percent with Medicaid, and 33 percent with Medicare.
    • Medical debt leads many people to delay or avoid getting care or filling prescriptions: more than one-third (34%) of people with medical debt are in employer plans, 39 percent in the marketplace or individual-market plans, 31 percent in Medicaid, and 32 percent in Medicare.
Healthcare insurance, whether private or government-funded, is inadequate. Given the fact that the federal government has infinite dollars, why are so many Americans suffering with too-costly-but-inadequate insurance? Medicare, for instance, is far less than comprehensive. Why does Medicare have Part A, Part B, Part C, and Part D, each with different options and costs? Why not simply a Medicare that covers everything for everyone at no cost? What Medicare Doesn't Cover Why, if the federal government has infinite money, are these expenses not covered, and why are there deductibles and added costs to complete coverages? You have been told, falsely, that the federal government is like state/local governments, business, you and me, in being monetarily non-sovereign. You have been told falsely, that the federal government spends taxpayers’ dollars and can run short of dollars. You have been told, falsely, that to provide benefits, the federal government must levy taxes and spend taxpayers’ money. It’s all a lie.

Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Quote from former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when he was on 60 Minutes: Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending? Ben Bernanke: “It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account. The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

The U.S. government is not the only Monetarily Sovereign entity. For example:

Press Conference: Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 9 January 2014 Question: I am wondering: can the ECB ever run out of money? Mario Draghi: Technically, no. We cannot run out of money.

Given its infinite money supply, why does the federal government not provide free, comprehensive, no-deductible insurance to every man, woman, and child in America? Why must you, as an American, risk bankruptcy, sickness, and death because your insurance is inadequate? What is the Big Lie? The Big Lie is the claim that federal taxes fund federal spending. To pay its bills, the federal government creates new dollars ad hoc by tapping computer keys. Whenever you read an article claiming the federal government is “spending taxpayers’ dollars; it is a lie. State and local governments spend taxpayers’ dollars; the federal government does not. Why are you being lied to, and where are the lies coming from? The lies are coming from the healthcare insurance industry, the media, the economists, and the politicians. It’s easy to understand why the insurance industry lies about the federal government’s not funding healthcare insurance: The profit motive. The insurance industry does not want to lose the huge profits in selling healthcare coverage. But why do the media, economists, and politicians lie? Because they are bribed. The media are bribed by advertising dollars and by ownership. The economists are bribed by university contributions and by promises of lucrative jobs in “think tanks.” The politicians are bribed by campaign contributions and by promises of lucrative jobs with industry. Who is doing the bribing? The very rich? Why are the rich bribing? Gap psychology says people grow richer and more powerful by widening the Gap between them and those below them in any income/wealth/power measure. That is the primary way the rich make themselves more affluent. How do the rich widen the Gap below them? They get more for themselves, but importantly, they make sure those below them get less. They use their influence to reduce the federal benefits paid to those less wealthy. The rich disseminate the lie that Medicare and Social Security are running short of dollars, so benefits must be reduced, and taxes must be increased (See: “Starve the Poor.”) What should be done? First, the useless, harmful FICA tax should be eliminated. Like all federal taxes, it funds nothing. Worse, it punishes the low-income worker and widens the Gap between the rich and the rest. Second, the federal government should pay for free, comprehensive Medicare for All, with no limits and no deductions. One free plan for everyone; no Part A, B, C, D. No Medicaid. No “Donut holes.” No Medicare Advantage plans. The public must learn that federal spending is beneficial, and it costs nothing. The more the federal government spends on healthcare, the more the overall economy will grow and prosper. Ignorance is the weapon used by the rich to dominate the rest. That is the reason medical services are unaffordable for so many Americans. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY