Economics is a strange science. It is loaded with statistics, but for lazy reasons, too many economists tend not to believe their own statistics, and instead lean toward intuition and comfortable adages.
One such adage is: “Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.”
Here are excerpts from an article embracing that myth:
COVID Stimulus Checks Worsened InflationFour economists at the Federal Reserve say America’s high rate of inflation relative to the rest of the world is the result of surging disposable income during the pandemic.ERIC BOEHM | 4.8.2022
Inflation is running higher in the United States than just about anywhere else right now. Why’s that?
According to a new paper from four economists at the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, it’s because the American government was relatively more generous during the pandemic, borrowing and spending trillions of dollars to not only fund COVID-19 relief efforts but to line the pockets of Americans with direct payments that enlarged the money supply and overheated the economy.
Contrary to popular wisdom, the federal government does not borrow dollars. It creates new dollars, ad hoc, every time it pays a creditor. That is the federal government’s method for creating dollars.
The federal government has the infinite ability to create its own sovereign currency, so it never needs to borrow. (It also doesn’t need to acquire dollars by levying taxes, but that’s another issue.)
That thing falsely labeled “borrowing,” actually should be termed “accepting deposits” into Treasury Security accounts — dollars the federal government never needs or touches — dollars that stay in those T-bill, T-note, and T-bond accounts until maturity, at which time they are returned to depositors.
More to the point is the fact that there is no relationship between inflation andthe nation’s money supply.There is no relationship between inflation (blue line) and the money supply (M2) (gold line)
If an increased money supply caused inflation, one should expect the blue inflation line and the gold money supply line to be relatively parallel. We see nothing of the sort.
Their relationship can better be described as random, not cause/effect..
“Since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries.
Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severityof the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence.”
Blaming “fiscal support measures” merely restates the data-discredited“Too much money” part of the adage.
But, at least, we have an admission from a debt nag that federal deficit spending helps grow the economy, a fact that Mr. Boehm’s Libertarian Party is reluctant to mention.
Governments all over the world spent heavily to combat the pandemic, of course, but few handed out cash directly to citizens as the American government did.
Mr. Boehm implies that government spending is superior to federally-financed, private-sector spending with regard to inflation. This strange idea never is explained.
In both cases, money is added to the economy and circulates through the economy.
The four Federal Reserve researchers track sharp increases in “inflation-adjusted disposable personal income”—in layman’s terms, excess spending cash—reported by American households over the past two years.
“Throughout 2020 and 2021, U.S. households experienced significantly higher increases in their disposable income relative to their OECD peers,” they write.
Data shows that “inflation-adjusted disposable personal income” (aka “Real Disposable Personal Income) has no historical relationship to the rate of inflation.
Looking at data, rather than intuition and adages, we find the Real Disposable Personal Income (red) line is nowhere near parallel to the Inflation (blue) line. Again, the differences between them seem generally random.
About $817 billion in direct payments to American households were delivered in three rounds during the pandemic, according to the COVID Money Tracker run by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonprofit that advocates for lower deficits.
The CRFB, which is funded by the rich, always advocates for lower deficits, or more specifically, advocates for less money going to the middle classes and the poor.
The rich, in their ever-present desire to be richer, continually try to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest. (See Gap Psychology).
Had we followed CRFB’s advice, we would be in the midst of a deep recession or a depression.
We’re now reaping what Congress sowed. All that excess cash is chasing the same number of goods.
Wrong. It’s not chasing the same number of goods. COVID dramatically has reduced our ability to manufacture and to ship.
There are major shortages of goods, not because of increased demand but because of reduced creation:
All inflations are caused by shortages, most often, shortages of oil and food.The price of oil is closely related to the supply of oil, which in turn, has a primary influence on inflation. Note the parallel between oil prices and inflation
And no, increased federal debt has not increased the price of oil:
Oil prices are not historically related to the federal debt.
Food shortages also contribute to inflation:
COVID affected food farming and imports, forcing the availability of food to fall to historic levels, before rebounding. As a result, the price of food rose massively in 2020, and remains high as reserves are rebuilt.
Weirdly, the author of the article seems to imply that giving rescue money to people caused them to eat more food.
In truth, demand is not an issue. The problem is lack of production.
Larry Summers, one of the Obama administration’s top economic advisers, was warning about rising inflation more than a year ago.
Passing another stimulus bill in the spring of 2021, Summers warned in a Washington Post op-ed, “will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.”
Lord, please save us from the always wrong, Larry Summers. He rails against the stimulus bill which helped prevent a recession or a depression.
Almost every recession has resulted from reduced federal deficit growth:
Recessions (vertical gray bars) result from reduced federal deficit spending (blue line), and are cured by increased federal deficit spending.
Other top economists, including a former chairman of the International Monetary Fund, offered similar warnings.
The Biden administration and Democrats in Congress did not listen, and now here we are.
Yes, “here” we are, without a depression, which we would have had were it not for the influx of cash from the federal government.
Putting more money directly in Americans’ pockets and bank accounts caused inflation to get worse than it otherwise would have been.
Wrong. There is no relationship between inflation and that old bugaboo, federal debt:
No historical relationship between inflation and federal debt.
Today’s inflation is the result of COVID-caused shortagesof oil, food, computer chips, lumber, shipping, labor, and other commodities.
In fairness, the economists also point out that a less robust response to the pandemic may have caused a different kind of economic pain.
“Without these spending measures,” they write, “the economy might have tipped into outright deflation and slower economic growth, the consequences of which would have been harder to manage.”
Exactly right. We most likely would have slid right into a depression, had we followed the advice of Eric Boehm, the CRFB, Larry Summers, and other deficit nags.
1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807.
1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.
1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.
And finally, Mr. Boehm straddles the fence, which will allow him at some future time to claim credit for his correct prediction, while avoiding the embarrassment of his wrong prediction.
Putting more money directly in Americans’ pockets and bank accounts caused inflation to get worse than it otherwise would have been.
Wrong, again. Increased money supply does not cause inflation, as we have shown.
Now comes the other side of the fence
Any serious attempt to grapple with America’s current bout of inflation must be aware of that possible alternate reality—the grass is not necessarily greener on the other side.
And then back again to the first side of the fence.
But that doesn’t absolve the federal government—from the White House to Congress to the Federal Reserve—of its role in worsening this mess.
The whole world is suffering through a period of high inflation, but American policy makers added a uniquely high amount of fuel to the fire.
So, to summarize Mr. Boehm’s firm position: The federal government both should and should not have pumped money into the economy to fight off a possible COVID recession.
And that’s definite.
SUMMARY
Current increases in prices (aka “inflations”) are caused by shortages of key goods and services, most often energy and food.
The shortages all are COVID-related.
Today’s inflation involves many such shortages including oil, food, computer chips, lumber, shipping, labor, and other commodities.
Historically, there has been no relationship between federal deficit spending and inflation.
Deficit spending can cure inflation if it cures shortages by obtaining and distributing scarce commodities.
The lack of federal deficit spending results in recessions and depressions.
Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps:
Ten Steps To Prosperity:
The poker bromide goes something like this: If you’re sitting in a poker game for a half-hour, and you still can’t tell who the sucker is, you’re the sucker.
The economics bromide could be: If you think the minimum wage should be raised, but you oppose Social Security for All and Medicare for All, hello, sucker.
You’re a sucker for wondering, “Who’s going to pay for it?” when considering federal spending. You’re a sucker for thinking the federal government can’t afford it. You’re a sucker for thinking spending will cause inflation.
You’re a sucker who offers no alternative to the following:
With inflation hitting a 40-year high in the United States, working families are swimming ever faster in the effort to stay afloat. But the water keeps rising, as mostly stagnant wages are rapidly losing value.
The federal minimum wage has lost at least 21% of its value since Congress last raised it in 2009.
This has become an emergency for the millions of workers who earn less than $15 an hour and are finding it impossible to trim other costs enough to still be able to put food on the table and fill the tank.
According to new research released by Oxfam, roughly 32% of workers in the US earn less than $15 an hour. Nearly 52 million people are trying to make it on less than $31,200 a year, or $2,600 a month before taxes.
This is not right, nor is it viable — not for working families, the economy, or communities. We can’t keep an economy going if people can’t pay the rent and drive to work.
The federal minimum wage and federal poverty levels either are a disgrace or a joke, depending on your sense of humor. For one thing, they don’t take into consideration local differences in cost of living.
Apparently, earning more than $13K while living in a Mississippi shack puts you above the poverty level. Imagine that while trying to survive in Manhattan.
But perhaps the saddest statistics of all can be seen in the charts, below. Poverty is most often seen in Republican states. The people who live there vote for the political party more dedicated to keeping them in poverty.
Guess who America’s suckers are.
factsmaps,com
It’s not true that we “can’t keep an economy going if millions of Americans live in poverty.”
Yes, allowing millions of impoverished children means we forego so many of their educated talents. It means many industries will grow more slowly or not grow at all. It means that scientific advancement will be slower, and life-spans will be lower than they should be.
It means that millions of our fellow Americans will live in misery.
But the economy will keep going — for the upper-middle and the rich — just as the economy is going in impoverished Mississippi, Louisiana, West Virginia, New Mexico, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, et al.
Even in 3rd-world countries, the economy is “going.”
But is that the America you want? Do you really want an America where the rich keep getting richer and the rest keep getting poorer? Do you really want an America where one of the major political parties wishes to deny Americans decent healthcare?
factsmaps,com
The fact is that many people in America are poor, not because they are lazy but because fate has dealt them bad hands. The most common reason for poverty is impoverished or missing parents — the unlucky gene problem.
Another reason for poverty is a government bought and paid for by the rich — a government dedicated to widening the Gap between the rich and the rest.
What should be done about those people? Here is a common suggestion:
That’s why Congress must pass the Raise the Wage Act of 2021, which would gradually increase the wage from $7.25 an hour to $15 by 2025 and would tie increases to median wage growth over time.
The “Raise the Wage Act” tells businesses to pay to solve the problem. But is this a problem businesses should pay to solve?
If businesses pay, business profits pay, no money is added to the economy, and the economy shrinks. If the government pays to solve the problem, business profits rise, new dollars come into the economy, and the economy grows.
In truth, this is a civil rights crisis, as the people most impacted by low wages are historically marginalized populations: women and people of color.
It’s a civil rights crisis, and businesses are expected to solve it???
Not only did these workers get hit harder, longer and deeper by the pandemic, they’ve been watching their wages buy less each day, as they account for a vastly disproportionate share of the low-wage workforce — 40% of women versus 25% of men.
Half of all women of color earn under $15 per hour versus a quarter of all men.
And while 26% of White workers earn less than $15 an hour, 46% of Hispanic/Latinx workers and 47% of Black workers earn less than $15 per hour. These are the people suffering the worst sticker shock at the grocery store and the gas pump, choosing between rent and utilities.
What’s more, federal law still allows US employers to pay subminimum wages to nearly a million workers. The Raise the Wage Act would fix that, prohibiting anyone from being paid less than the federal minimum wage.
It’s a money problem. Rather than relying on monetarily non-sovereign businesses (i.e. entities that do not have infinite money) or on state/local governments (also monetarily non-sovereign), the Monetarily Sovereign federal government, which has infinite money, should solve the problem.
And what exactly is the problem? Lack of financial resources. The poor, very simply, don’t have enough money, not only to live decent lives, but to live productive lives that would benefit all America.
Their poverty hurts all of America.
Rather than forcing monetarily non-sovereign entities (businesses and local governments) to pay specified minimum salaries, the Monetarily Sovereign federal government should provide what is lacking: Medicare for All, Social Security for All, College for All, Food for All.
Federal support for healthcare, college, food, and income, would be the “tide that raises all of America’s boats.”The federal government has infinite money. While some may complain about multi-billionaires not paying their fair share, our multi-trillionaire government pleads poverty, and unnecessarily takes FICA money from lower-end salaries.
Sadly, the federal government rations aid to make sure that the poor stay poor.
A measure of income issued every year by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Federal poverty levels are used to determine your eligibility for certain programs and benefits, including savings on Marketplace health insurance, and Medicaid and CHIP coverage.
Why? Why must Americans jump through hoops to prove they can’t afford healthcare? Why doesn’t the federal government simply pay for everyone’s health care? Isn’t that why we have a government? Look at the convoluted, complex, and totally unnecessary formula:
How federal poverty levels are used to determine eligibility for reduced-cost health coverage
Income above 400% FPL: If your income is above 400% FPL, you may now qualify for premium tax credits that lower your monthly premium for a 2022 Marketplace health insurance plan.
Income between 100% and 400% FPL: If your income is in this range, in all states you qualify for premium tax credits that lower your monthly premium for a Marketplace health insurance plan.
Income at or below 150% FPL: If your income falls at or below 150% FPL in your state and you’re not eligible for Medicaid or CHIP, you may qualify to enroll in or change Marketplace coverage through a Special Enrollment Period.
Income below 138% FPL: If your income is below 138% FPL and your state has expanded Medicaid coverage, you qualify for Medicaid based only on your income.
Income below 100% FPL: If your income falls below 100% FPL, you probably won’t qualify for savings on a Marketplace health insurance plan or for income-based Medicaid.
What is the purpose of this complexity? What is Congress’s concern that creates this difficult path to eligibility? Why doesn’t everyone simply receive free, comprehensive, no-deductible health insurance, paid for by the federal government?
The answer: The Big Lie. The lie is that the federal government can run short of dollars, and taxes are necessary to fund federal spending.
By Amelia Thomson-DeVeauxMAR. 30, 2022, AT 6:00 AM
Imagine the federal government could lift millions of American children out of poverty with a single program. That program would help parents put nutritious meals on the table, pay for school expenses and even save for kids’ college — all with no negative impact on the economy.
You don’t have to imagine. We had it just last year … and now we don’t.
By nearly every empirical measure, the expanded child tax credit (CTC) — the policy passed in 2021 that gave parents a few hundred dollars per month for each child in their family — was a wild success, dramatically reducing child poverty and making it easier for families to buy food and pay for housing and utilities.
In combination with other COVID-19 relief measures, particularly the stimulus payments that went out to Americans in April 2020, January 2021 and March 2021, the CTC helped buffer families against the economic upheaval of the pandemic.
It’s rare that researchers can say with certainty that a program like the CTC actually worked. Politicians usually consider policies in an abstract, hypothetical way, knowing that a piece of legislation might not accomplish their aims.
But by the time Congress was thinking about extending the CTC, there was a mountain of cold, hard data showing that this program did a lot to help children and families.
Yet that wasn’t enough to save it. The expanded tax credit ended in December 2021, and chances are low it will be renewed. That tells you all you need to know about which is more powerful in Washington — politicians’ biases or actual evidence.
By the time the pandemic hit, reformers had been pushing for years for the U.S. to establish a universal allowance for families with children.
In the spring of 2021, Democrats in Congress transformed the CTC, an anti-poverty measure that’s been part of the tax code since 1997, into a kind of emergency child allowance.
Government programs are often glitchy when they start, but the fact that most families were eligible for the payments meant that they were fairly easy to administer.
The IRS already had all the information it needed for anyone who had claimed children on their previous year’s taxes — no additional applications or forms to fill out. The payments went straight into recipients’ bank accounts or they got a check in the mail, with minimal fuss.
And the money helped — a lot. Beginning July 15, the vast majority (88 percent) of families with children received a payment of either $300 or $250 per child. Researchers at the Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy found that the July payment kept around 3 million children out of poverty. At the end of 2021, the researchers estimated that the program was keeping 3.7 million children out of poverty.
“Families were living in very precarious economic circumstances,” said Megan Curran, one of the researchers on the Columbia team. “That $300 or $600 per month — it might not sound like much, but when you’re making very little, it can be enough to give you a financial cushion.”
So there it is. A program worked, but it didn’t help the very rich, so our bribed politicians, especially the GOP white men, weren’t interested in poor children of color, so the policy that worked was abandoned.
The excuse: “Who will pay for it.” The lie: Taxpayers pay for it.” The fact: Not only don’t taxpayers pay for federal spending, but federal spending adds dollars to the economy, and those added dollars wind up in taxpayers’ pockets.
And finally, lest you doubt that taxes don’t fund federal spending and the government has the infinite ability to spend, here are excerpts from an article in the 4/4/2022 Chicago Tribune:
Biden’s defense budget is big. Democrats mightmake it biggerDoyle McManus, LOS ANGELES TIMESWASHINGTON — Last week, President Joe Biden sent Congress his proposed defensebudget for the next fiscal year: an $813 billion wish list, almost $60 billion more thanhe requested a year ago — more military spending than any president, includingDonald Trump, has requested since World War II.
Once Congress approves the request — and, in all likelihood, makes it bigger— U.S.defense spending will be larger in inflation-adjusted dollars than it was at the heightof the Vietnam War or President Ronald Reagan’s Cold War buildup.
Moderate Democrats, including House members from districts with defenseindustry jobs, say they’ll join with Republicans to support more military spending —just as they did last year, when a big bipartisan majority passed record-breakingdefense bills.
Even with its big increase, the Biden budget won’t keep pace with inflation if priceskeep rising at the current 7% or more. Republicans have seized on that as their mostpowerful argument; they’re demanding a real increase of 5% on top of inflation, andthey’ll probably get part of it.
“Most Democrats have already given up on cuts,” noted Todd Harrison, a defensebudget expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They’ve adopted astrategy of parity instead: ‘OK, you get more for defense, but give us more for domestic spending in exchange.’”
Notice what’s missing from the article: There’s no mention of a “federal trust account,” similar to what we see for Medicare and Social Security.
There’s no mention of affordability or “who’s going to pay for it,” or concerns about federal spending causing inflation or the need for tax increases.
Why? Because the money is available. The federal government has an infinite supply.No tax increases are necessary.
But helping poor and middle-income Americans is not what the rich want. Cutting FICA and saving Social Security is not what the rich want. Raising the minimum wage is not what the rich want.
The rich want spending on defense. That’s where the business profits are.
And the American public, being ignorant of federal finance facts, goes along with the Big Lie.
SUMMARY
The Big Lie in economics is: “Federal spending is funded by federal tax collections.” (Federal spending actually is funded by ad hoc dollar creation.)
The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, unintentionally cannot run short of dollars. Even if the government collected $0 taxes, it could continue spending forever.
No agency of the federal government can run short of dollars unless Congress wills it.
Inflations never are caused by the federal government’s “excessive spending.” All inflations are caused by scarcities. Federal spending can cure inflations by curing scarcities.
Federal taxes do not fund federal spending. All M1 tax dollars sent to the Treasury are destroyed upon receipt.
The government is run by the very rich, who want to be richer, which they accomplish by widening the Gap between the rich and the rich. This is known as “Gap Psychology.”
The Big Lie is disseminated via bribery of information sources:
The media are bribed via advertising dollars and ownership of media
Economists are bribed via university donations and promises of jobs in think tanks
Politicians are bribed via political donations and promises of jobs
[No rational person would take dollars from the economy and give them to a federal government that destroys those dollars and has the infinite ability to create new dollars.]
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary SovereigntyTwitter: @rodgermitchellSearch #monetarysovereigntyFacebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
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THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.
Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps:
Ten Steps To Prosperity:
In most people’s minds, AARP is an organization that supports us old folks. Well, maybe:
60 Minutes reportedin a 1978 exposé that AARP had been established as a marketing device by Leonard Davis, founder of the Colonial Penn Group insurance companies. Until the 1980s AARP was controlled by Davis, who promoted its image as a non-profit advocate of retirees in order to sell insurance to members.
AARP severed ties with Davis in 1979 and began dropping Colonial Penn products. AARP sought competitive bids for insurance coverage and in 1981 chose Prudential Insurance Company of America to underwrite the group health plan for AARP members.
The organization was originally named the American Association of Retired Persons, but in 1999, it officially changed its name to “AARP” to reflect that its focus was no longer American retirees.
AARP no longer requires that members be retired, and there are no longer any age restrictions even for a full membership.
If AARP truly wished to support old people, or any other members, it surely would understand the way Social Security and Medicare are financed. Even more than “understand,” it would broadcast the truth to the world.
Sadly, instead of broadcasting the truth, AARP promulgates the Big Lie that Social Security and Medicare rely on trust funds, which are supported by the regressive FICA tax.
AARP, and all others who repeat the Big Lie, claim that lacking tax increases or benefit decreases, Social Security (and Medicare) cannot survive, a claim that is not made regarding other federal agencies.
Here is what AARP says:
And no wonder: The program, now 86 years old, has become the bedrock of our retirement finances. Which begs the question: Why are its finances not more secure?
As a federal agency, the finances are as secure as the finances of any other federal agency, i.e. Social Security has unlimited finances subject to the whims of Congress and the President.
To answer that, AARP talked with dozens of experts about Social Security and its future viability. Here’s what we learned.
If AARP did indeed talk with “dozens of experts,” it would have learned the facts. Based on AARP’s claims, it didn’t talk with real experts, or it intentionally is lying:
“Those who tend to distrust the government seem to have less faith that Social Security will be there for them in its current form,” said Michael Baughman, a financial planner in Tryon, North Carolina.
Social Security’s finances are unquestionably on a downward slope, and fixing them is primarily in the hands of the U.S. Congress.
If no action is taken, the moment of crisis — meaning when the program would no longer have enough money to fully pay its promised benefits — will happen in just over a decade.
That much is true: The financial future of Social Security is in the hands of Congress, but not in the way AARP wants you to believe.
The “moment of crisis” is an invented problem, the result of the myth that Social Security is funded by FICA.
It is not.
Quote from Luther Gulick, an expert on public administration and one of the founders of the American Society for Public Administration”
I raised (with Franklin D. Roosevelt), the question of the ultimate abandonment of the pay roll taxes in connection with old age security and unemployment relief in the event of another period of depression.
I suggested that it had been a mistake to levy these taxes in the 1930’s when the social security program was orgiginally adopted.
FDR said, “I guess you’re right on the economics. They are politics all the way through. We put those pay roll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits.
With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program. Those taxes aren’t a matter of economics, they’re straight politics.”
FDR also mentioned the psychological effect of contributions in destroying the “relief attitude.”
FICA is the single, most regressive tax in America. Despite Roosevelt’s intentions, it has the opposite of the desired effect. FICA widens the Gap between the rich and the rest. Wikipedia.
The rich receive and control a massive percentage of income, wealth, and power in America, but the middle classes and the poor pay almost all of the FICA tax.
It is conceivable that self-described billionaire Donald Trump, for instance, never has paid a penny into the so-called Social Security (non-existent) “trust fund.”
In any event, all FICA dollars are destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury, so it is functionally impossible for FICA to fund Social Security, Medicare or anything else.
Like all federal taxes (and unlike state/local taxes), FICA very simply is your money flushed down a giant federal toilet, never to be seen again.
The tax dollars you send to the U.S. Treasury, are not used for anything. They are destroyed upon receipt.
Reid Ribble, a former Republican congressman from Wisconsin’s 8th District, says, “Republicans have never wanted to increase revenue, and just dealing with it on the benefit side is not politically feasible.”
In simple English, Republicans say they don’t want to increase FICA or decrease benefits. Democrats say the same, though for different reasons. So that produces a conundrum for those who believe in the trust fund myth.
The most likely FICA increase would be to make richer people pay more, which Republicans, being the “Party of the Rich” loathe.
Republicans wouldn’t mind a benefit decrease, but Democrats would hate that. Instead, Dems would prefer charging FICA to the rich, which is a no-go for the GOP.
Without Social Security benefits, 21.7 million more Americans would be below the poverty line, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Social Security does more than send eligible retirees a payment every month. It provides ongoing income to surviving spouses and their children as well.
Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) helps pay the monthly bills for qualified disabled workers and their families.
Although most of those whom Social Security keeps out of poverty are older adults, 6.9 million are under age 65, including 1.2 million children.
Not surprisingly, Social Security has widespread support. “It’s crystal clear that Americans of all generations value the economic stability Social Security has offered for the last 86 years — even more so as we face the health and economic challenges of a global pandemic,” says Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer.
Middle- and lower-income Americans love Social Security. The rich Americans? Not so much.
The rich would be perfectly happy if no one collected SS benefits. Eliminating all social benefits would widen the Gap between the rich and the rest.
(Without the Gap, no one would be rich, and the wider the Gap, the richer are the rich. Widening the Gap is the only way the rich become richer.)
And now, in all its glory, comes the Big Lie:
Absent any change in law, the Social Security trust funds — the financial accounts that the program draws from when annual payments to Americans are larger than annual tax collections — will be out of money in about 12 years.
At that point, the program would have only ongoing tax revenue with which to fund payments; calculations show that would cover only 78 percent of promised benefits.
The so-called Social Security “trust fund” (and Medicare “trust fund”) are not trust funds at all. They simply are balance sheet lines over which Congress and the President have total control.
The numbers in the “trust funds” arbitrarily can be changed by Congress and/or the so-called “trust funds” could be eliminated tomorrow, with Congress supporting SS the way it supports every other federal agency: By allocating funds.
Here is what the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a right-wing group that has no love for the poor, admits about federal “trust funds.”
A federal trust fund is an accounting mechanism used by the federal government to track earmarked receipts (money designated for a specific purpose or program) and corresponding expenditures.
The largest and best-known funds finance Social Security, Medicare, highways and mass transit, and pensions for government employees.
Federal trust funds bear little resemblance to their private-sector counterparts.
In private-sector trust funds, receipts are deposited and assets are held and invested by trustees on behalf of the stated beneficiaries.
In federal trust funds, the federal government does not set aside the receipts or invest them in private assets.
Rather, the receipts are recorded as accounting credits in the trust funds, and the receipts themselves are comingled with other receipts that Treasury collects and spends.
For a more detailed view of real (not federal) trust funds, see: What Is A Trust Fund?This is how real trust funds work. It is not how the Social Security faux “trust fund” works.
There are three parties involved in all trust funds:
The grantor: This person establishes the trust fund, donates the property (such as cash, stocks, bonds, real estate, art, a private business, or anything else of value) to it, and decides the management terms.
The beneficiary: This is the person for whom the trust fund was established.
The trustee: The trustee, which can be a single individual, an institution, or multiple trusted advisors, is responsible for making sure the trust fund maintains its duties as laid out in the trust documents and according to applicable law.
The primary difference is that a real trust fund holds money or other assets in trust. It’s not a simple checking account that accepts and doles out dollars at will.
To Congress, 2034 is a long way off. But the sooner the legislature acts, the quicker and easier it will be to bolster the trust funds’ reserves, due to simple math: Smaller revenue or benefit changes made now would accrue over time, which is a far more efficient way to secure the funds than paying for a last-minute major repair job.
Real trust funds don’t have reserves that need to be “bolstered.” And since the Social Security “trust fund” must be “bolstered,” and the benefits can be changed at will, what is the purpose of that “trustfund”?
It’s nothing more than a line in a balance sheet.
Fully 12.4 percent of your gross income has gone to Social Security each paycheck by way of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) payroll tax.
The amount of wages subject to the payroll tax is capped and indexed annually; in 2022, a worker pays the tax on wages up to $147,000.
For a self-employed worker clearing that amount or more, that means an annual OASDI tax bill of about $18,200.,
The math goes like this: If you earn $147,000 a year, you pay $18,200 in FICA taxes, about twelve percent of your pay.
But if you earn $10,000,000 a year, you pay . . . that’s right, that same $18,200 . . . about 2 tenths of one percent of your pay.
If all your income came from sources other than salary (as does the income of most rich people, you would pay $0 FICA.
That difference demonstrates one of the ways the rich have bribed Congress to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest.
But it’s even worse than that:
After the Social Security Administration (SSA) pays beneficiaries, any tax dollars that are left overgo into the trust funds, now totaling $2.91 trillion, to be tapped at a time when taxes coming into the system aren’t enough to cover ongoing benefit payments.
No “leftover” tax dollars go anywhere. The federal government does not save any tax dollarssent in, simply because it already has the unlimited ability to create infinite dollars to pay out. All tax dollars are destroyed.
When you send a tax check to the Treasury, the dollars come out of your checking account Those dollars are part of the M1 money supply measure which includes “physical currency and coin, demand deposits, travelers checks, other checkable deposits and negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts.
The instant your check is received by the Treasury, it no longer is part of M1. It ceases to exist in any money supply measure. (The federal government has an infinite supply of money, so there is no money measure of federal money.)
M1 is reduced, and effectively, your tax dollars are destroyed.
To make up for its income shortfall, the SSA this year will start drawing on the trust funds. Based on recent calculations, absent any major changes, the funds will run dry in 2034.
That’s 24 years earlier than the SSA estimated when the system was last overhauled in 1983.
There are no funds to “run dry.” Two simple computer key taps, one labeled “Assets” and one labeled “Liabilities” will instantly restore the trust fund’s balance sheets.
How did we get here? As long predicted, demographics explain a good deal: In a decade, the entirety of the boomer generation — some 70 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 — will have hit retirement age.
As a result, the number of people receiving Social Security benefits come 2034 will be more than double the beneficiaries in 1985.
But what wasn’t known as accurately was how much longer those boomers would live. “From 1940 to 2019, life expectancies at age 65 have increased by about 6.5 years,” says Amy Kemp, chair of the Social Security Committee of the American Academy of Actuaries.
The impact: Many workers will be receiving benefits for a longer period of time. And those with higher incomes, which are generally those who receive higher benefit amounts, tend to live longer on average.
At the same time, there has been a continued decline in the nation’s birth rate; that means there are fewer younger workers to support the benefitspromised to older workers.
In 1955, there were more than eight workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary. Now there are 2.7 workers per beneficiary.
All of the above is total beeswax. The question was, “How did we get here?” The answer is: By pretending that our Monetarily Sovereign government’s finances are like personal finances and that it can run short of dollars.
Contrary to the nonsense you repeatedly are told, the contributions made by young workers do not fund the benefits paid to old workers. The contributions made by young workers do not fund anything. They are destroyed.
Additionally, the country’s growing income inequality has had a negative effect on the amount of payroll taxes going into the trust funds, as wages above the payroll tax cap have grown much faster than wages under the cap.
And why is there a “cap”? Because that is the way the rich, who run America, want it. They want the Gap between the rich and the rest, to widen as much as possible.
If nothing is done, Social Security is projected to still be able to pay roughly three-quarters of promised benefits for the remainder of the century.
Or, if the government and AARP would tell the truth, they would say, “Social Security will be able to pay all promised benefits in perpetuity, whether on not it collects a penny in FICA taxes.”
So what needs to happen to secure Social Security for the long term?
There are variables that are out of the direct control of the SSA or Congress, such as the economy, wages, life expectancy, and birth rates.
But if projections hold more or less true, on paper the options are fairly simple: Congress will have to raise taxes, modify benefits or do some of both.
Both of those totally unnecessary actions will widen the Gap between the rich and the rest, effectively making the rich richer — exactly what the rich want.
Those options come down to any variation of a handful of leading approaches discussed by policymakers. Here are several, starting with ways to bring more money into the system.
Adjust the cap. This year, someone with $1 million in work income would pay the same amount of OASDI tax as someone with $147,000 in wages.
Intentionally misleading. “Work income” does not include income from rent, certain types of royalties, capital gains, and dividends. They are not subject to FICA taxes.
However, you have to pay the tax on all earned income including your salary, tips, commissions and anything else that counts as wages.
How convenient for the rich, since most (or all) of their income is derived from rent, royalties, capital gains and dividends.
Eliminating the taxable wage cap would keep the trust funds solvent until 2060, according to Social Security.
The Big Lie. The so-called “trust funds” are as solvent as Congress wants them to be. Raising or lowering the taxable wage cap would not affect “trust fund” solvency.
Also, it would have a scant effect on the rich, who get most of their income from non-wage sources.
Increase payroll tax rates. As noted, the current rate is 12.4 percent. Some propose raising that incrementally — say, by 2 percentage points, to 14.4 percent — as a way to bring additional dollars into the trust funds.
But some experts note that such tax increases would be hardest felt by those who earn lower wages or are self-employed.
But that’s the plan, isn’t it. That’s how the Gap is widened, i.e. how the rich get richer.
Broaden the base.Not all state and local employees are covered by Social Security. Some have only public pension coverage.
Bringing all newly hired state and local workers into the Social Security system would create a large new influx of cash, although it would mean more beneficiaries to pay later.
Yes, by all means, let’s soak all those low-paid state and local workers, so that the states will be forced to raise salaries. And where will the states get the money to raise salaries? From other taxpayers, of course.
Broaden the definition of income. Certain forms of income are not subject to SSA payroll taxes, such as the value of employer-sponsored group health insurance.
Gradually eliminating such exclusions — and collecting payroll taxes on the additional income — would keep the trust funds healthy for roughly four additional years.
It would have no effect on the ability of Social Security to pay benefits, and the rich simply would find other forms of income, and continue to dodge the useless tax.
A significantly larger target, and so more politically challenging, would be to levy a Social Security tax on annual investment income, as opposed to just payroll taxes.
The other side of the coin is implementing changes that reduce benefits to certain Social Security beneficiaries.
It’s all sleight of hand to make you believe the Big Lie that federal taxes fund federal spending.
Introduce more progressivity. Typically referred to as “means testing,” this approach calls for adjusting the size of your Social Security payments based on your wages, wealth, or income.
And you don’t think the Donald Trumps of the world will find dodges to that. He already has increased the value of his assets when asking for a loan, and decreased the value of the same assets when paying taxes.
A “wealth tax” is computationally impossible, because the values of most assets is too debatable.
Cut benefits for new recipients. Another approach would be to pay newly eligible retirees a little less per month than promised.
Reduce the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).Each year, the SSA usually adjusts beneficiary payments to help protect their purchasing power from inflation.
The yardstick used is the government’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, which takes into account the price increases for everything from apples to gasoline to rent.
Change benefit calculations. Adjusting the complex formulas used to determine your Social Security payments could result in modestly lower benefits that could help increase the life of the trust funds.
Up the retirement age. You can start taking Social Security, with reduced benefits, at age 62. Wait until you’re 67 (if you turn 62 in 2022) and you qualify for your full benefit.
This last dumb idea is known as the “Work ‘Til You Drop” provision. All of the “solutions” rely on the same faulty belief, that federal taxes fund federal spending.
Some have suggested scrapping the entire program and converting it to individual account plans similar to a 401(k) retirement program, in which you contribute some or all of your current payroll taxes to a self-managed retirement account invested in stocks, bonds and other securities; you would bear the risks and rewards of your choices.
The above completely reverses the fundamental purpose of Social Security, which is to aid the middle- and low-income Americans, who can’t afford retirement, or don’t know how to manage money in their old ages.
Experts also note that such a program would mean the trust funds would be depleted sooner, putting current benefits at even greater risk.
Oh, those mythical, phony”trust funds.” We certainly don’t want to deplete what doesn’t even exist, do we?
Legislators in Congress routinely propose bills to alter Social Security, ranging from small adjustments to substantive overhauls.
In fact, so far in the 2021–2022 legislative session, dozens of members of Congress have introduced bills related to Social Security. To date, none has moved to a full vote.
But not one member of Congress has acknowledged the underlying fact that Social Security is funded by federal spending, which is infinitely available.
This lack of action isn’t surprising, given Congress’ big disagreements on Social Security reform.
To our well-bribed Congress, SS “reform” always means “more tax and less benefit,” all to widen the Gap.
The 1983 legislation negotiated between House Speaker Tip O’Neill and President Ronald Reagan that has kept the program solventover the past four decades was a squeaker (though it ultimately won large bipartisan support).
SS is a solvent as Congress wants it to be. All Congress and the President need do is vote to add a few trillion to the budget for social purposes. No need to struggle with phony fixes.
That bill gradually raised full retirement age for beneficiaries to 67, levied taxes on Social Security payments for some beneficiaries, and increased taxes, all of which would be difficult to reach consensus on in Congress today.
Cutting benefits and increasing taxes did nothing to increase SS solvency.
Today, 12 percent of men and 15 percent of women on Social Security rely on it for 90 percent or more of their income. Even a modest reduction in benefits would hit them hard.
And 37 percent of men and 42 percent of women on Social Security get 50 percent or more of their income from the program.
And yet, not only do we hit these people with a FICA tax, but we also tax benefits. If the government really was trying to help people, this would make absolutely no sense.
But that is not what the government is bribed to do. It is bribed to make the rich richer.
With around 65 million people today receiving benefits, that means tens of millions of Americans depend heavily on the program. And already, their payments aren’t high.
The average retirement benefit from Social Security was $1,555 a month in 2021, or $18,660 a year. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the U.S.? About $1,680 a month, according to Apartmentguide.com.
“When I did my research on it, probably the hardest-hit recipient of Social Security was a widow who has outlived her family savings and is now living in old age, strictly on Social Security,” Ribble says. “She’s trying to live off a $700- or $800-a-month payment.”
And the above is after the same widow was forced to pay12% of her salary on useless FICA. (Yes, 12%, not 6%, because employers take their share into consideration when calculating salary affordability.)
If history is any guide, there’s reason to hope that Congress will find a solution. Says Social Security’s Goss: “We’ve never reached the point where we depleted the reserves and had to reduce benefits.”
More false propaganda from the government. Those reserves don’t fund benefits.
In 2022, AARP will continue to urge members of Congress to shore up Social Security’s long-term finances and keep the promises made to all current and future beneficiaries.
We have fought hard against arbitrary cuts to the cost of living adjustment (COLA) and against bills like the Trust Act that target Social Security as a way to deal with budget deficits.
And we fought hard to ensure that those on Social Security would be able to get economic stimulus payments without having to file separately.
AARP also has “fought hard” to maintain the fiction that federal FICA taxes fund SS benefits.
Given that Big Lie, there can be no solution that does not include a tax increase or a benefit decrease. That’s simple arithmetic.
If you begin with the wrong premise, you cannot arrive at a correct solution.
State taxation: Twelve U.S. states now tax Social Security benefits. In 2022, AARP will work at the state level to eliminate this tax burden for more retirees and their families.
How about working at the federal level, to eliminate those tax burdens? Not paid to do that, AARP?
IN SUMMARY
Federal taxes — payroll taxes, income taxes, luxury taxes, all other federal taxes do not fund federal spending. Contrary to the Big Lie, all federal taxes are destroyed upon receipt by the federal government.
Unlike the monetarily non-sovereign state and local government, our Monetarily Sovereign federal government creates all its spending money ad hoc. It neither needs nor uses income for any purpose.
The ostensible purpose of federal taxes is to guide the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to encourage. Another purpose is to assure demand for the U.S. dollar, which is necessary for paying taxes.
The real purpose of federal taxes is to make the rich richer, by widening the Gap between the rich and the rest.
To effect this result, the rich bribe the media via advertising dollars and media ownership. And the rich bribe the economists via promises of jobs at “think tanks” and via contributions to universities.
And the rich bribe the politicians via political contributions and promises of lobbying jobs.
All that bribery is expensive, but worthwhile for the rich, as the Gap has widened greatly, i.e. the rich have become richer.
[No rational person would take dollars from the economy and give them to a federal government that has the infinite ability to create dollars.]
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary SovereigntyTwitter: @rodgermitchellSearch #monetarysovereigntyFacebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
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THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.
Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps:
Ten Steps To Prosperity:
The Ten Steps will grow the economy and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.
MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY
(Every spending cut demanded by conservatives is designed to widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest, while the few spending increases backed by the conservatives are designed to reward and protect the rich.)
Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”
Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”
Quote from Ben Bernanke when, as Fed chief, he was on 60 Minutes:
Scott Pelley: Is that tax money that the Fed is spending?
Ben Bernanke: It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.
Statement from the St. Louis Fed:
“As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”
Press Conference: Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 9 January 2014
Question: I am wondering: can the ECB ever run out of money?
Mario Draghi: Technically, no. We cannot run out of money.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2014/html/is140109.en.html
In the unlikely event you don’t already know whether your U.S. Senators and Representative are ignorant about economics, or are liars, or in rare cases, honest and knowledgable, ask each of them this one question:
“Can the U.S. government run short of dollars?”
Their answers will tell you everything you need to know about their knowledge of federal economics and their honesty.
If they tell you that, “Yes, the government can run short of dollars,” that indicates they either are shockingly ignorant of federal finances, or they are shockingly dishonest.
If they tell you, “No, the government cannot run short of dollars,” then you can follow up with such questions as:
“Why does the government claim Social Security, a federal agency, is running short of dollars?”
“Why does the government collect FICA taxes?”
“Why does the government collect income taxes?”
“Why would Social Security for All be unaffordable?”
“Why would Medicare for All be unaffordable?”
“Why does Medicare have deductibles?”
“Why would free college, for all who want it, be unaffordable?”
“Why does the government lend, rather than give, to college students?”
“Why does America have so many impoverished men, women, and children — people who struggle to find enough to eat and a place to live?”
I recently sent “the one question” to my Senators and my House Representative. If they respond with anything coherent, I will publish their answers.
[Why would any sane person take dollars from the economy and give them to a federal government that has the infinite ability to create dollars?]
Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”
Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps:
Ten Steps To Prosperity: