COVID-19: The importance of viral load and partial solutions

Way back on May 5, 2020, we published a post titled,  “The surprisingly simple way to open America in 14 days and avoid a depression”

The essence of the post was: If everyone wore a mask, the transmission of the COVID-19 virus would be reduced to low levels approximating the effect of “herd immunity.”

Sadly, President Trump, being concerned about how wearing a mask made him look, discouraged mask-wearing. So, his followers did their best sheep imitations by not wearing masks.

The predictable result: Millions of Americans became infected and many thousands died.

Yesterday (8/15/20) we published excerpts from an article saying that men, far more often than women, refuse to wear masks because they feel the masks make them look weak. It is a macho thing.:

Performative masculinity is making American men sick,  American men are failing the pandemic.
By Alex Abad-Santosalex@vox.com, Aug 10, 2020

According to bias, behavior, and health experts, the reason is maddeningly simple: Masks aren’t manly.

The post belittled the lack of self-confidence exhibited by men, so frightened about not looking “manly,” they are willing to risk their lives and the lives of others, by not wearing masks.

In response to that post, I received a note from a reader who wrote, “Sneeze goes right through masks. Masks are useless except to keep from drooling into the surgical field.”

The reader is correct — and incorrect.Prevent the spread of COVID-19 with cough and sneeze shields ...

VIRAL LOAD
You will not become ill if just one COVID-19 virus enters your mouth.

All viral diseases, including COVID-19, rely on “viral load,” the number of viruses that are in your body at any one time.

“Viral load, also known as viral burden, viral titre or viral titer, is a numerical expression of the quantity of virus in a given volume of fluid; sputum and blood plasma being two bodily fluids.” Wikipedia

The key to preventing the spread and the severity of sickness from COVID-19 is to reduce the number of viruses transmitted from person to person, i.e. reduce the viral load.

The fewer viruses received, the more likely will a person’s immune system be able to respond effectively.

That is one reason why social distancing has a positive effect. The farther you are from a person, the fewer of the person’s viruses will make it to your mouth. At six feet distant, some viruses will be transmitted, though fewer than at two feet distant.

It also is why an outdoor setting is less conducive to transmission than is an indoor venue. Outdoors, the breeze dissipates the concentration of viruses far better than does indoor air circulation.

The above-mentioned reader is correct that viruses do penetrate masks. If there were zero penetration, a mask-wearer would not be able to breath.

But:

  1. Masks reduce the number of virus-containing droplets that penetrate the mask to be projected by an infected person.
  2. Masks reduce the distance of droplet projection by an infected person, reducing the number that reach another person.
  3. Masks reduce the number of droplets that penetrate the second person’s mask and are received by that person.

In total, the number of virus-containing droplets transmitted from infected people to non-infected people would be greatly reduced if everyone wore masks.

In this vein, here are excerpts from two informative articles:

SARS-CoV-2 viral load predicts risk of death

Determining the viral load of patients helps predict the risk of severe disease and death, allowing clinicians to implement more aggressive care.

The new study is the first to report on the SARS-CoV-2 viral load at diagnosis as an independent biomarker of the risk of death in a large cohort of hospitalized patients.

The team also noted that viral load in the COVID-19 disease may correlate with infectivity, disease phenotype, morbidity, and mortality.

The researchers discovered that a high viral load was tied to mortality or the risk of death among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Not only does viral load determine whether or not a person will become infected, but it also determines how serious the infection will be and the outcome, including the likelihood of death.

The more viruses you receive, the worse your outcome.

And then, there’s this:

TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Last updated on – Aug 11, 2020,
A study published recently in the Journal of Infectious Diseases makes a case for commonly used mouthwashes in fighting COVID-19.

According to the latest findings, gargling with mouthwash solutions may help inactivate the viral load of the SARS-COV-2 virus persisting in the mouth and throat and thereby, help lessen the spread of the infection.

The study, however, made it clear that using mouthwashes is no guaranteed treatment for the viral outbreak or protecting one from the infection; what it can possibly do is lower the chances of spread and transmission.

Researchers have based their evidence of using oral disinfecting solutions after studies based out of Ruhr University Bochum in Germany found out that high quantities of coronavirus exist within the upper respiratory tract, including the mouth and the throat.

It is also possible that the oral and throat cavities act as the ideal environments for the virus to settle in healthy individuals post-infection.

Since the spread of respiratory droplets, coughing, sneezing or talking are the likely causes of spread, a gargling solution like mouthwash could reduce the risk of transmission and subsequently lower the viral load or even stop it from multiplying.

Although the article wasn’t specific on this point, we assume it refers to alcohol-based mouthwashes (most are), since alcohol does inactivate viruses.

Here, the mouthwash acts as a kind of “mask” in that it reduces both the projection and the reception of the virus. You give fewer and you kill some of what you receive.

IN SUMMARY

For most problems in life, including diseases, partial solutions are all we have, and they are better than no solutions.

Herd immunity is one such partial solution. Herd immunity does not provide total immunity. Not everyone benefits. But it reduces the incidence and the effect of diseases.

With regard to COVID-19, we may never find an absolute prevention or cure. Even if a vaccine is developed, it may not be 100% effective. Partial solutions are all we ever may have.

One excellent partial solution is universal mask-wearing. Masks reduce the projection and the reception of the virus.

Additionally, it now is suspected that gargling with mouthwash will reduce the virus load in your mouth and throat, where most of the virus begins to do its damage.

And these reductions, by reducing overall virus load, will reduce sickness and death.

So I say to my readers, never demean any solution because of it not being 100% effective. Our lives rely on partial solutions.

Wear a mask. Gargle. Help yourself and help your neighbor.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

THE SOLE PURPOSE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO IMPROVE AND PROTECT THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE.

The most important problems in economics involve:

  1. Monetary Sovereignty describes money creation and destruction.
  2. Gap Psychology describes the common desire to distance oneself from those “below” in any socio-economic ranking, and to come nearer those “above.” The socio-economic distance is referred to as “The Gap.”

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics. Implementation of Monetary Sovereignty and The Ten Steps To Prosperity can grow the economy and narrow the Gaps:

Ten Steps To Prosperity:

1. Eliminate FICA

2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D, plus long-term care — for everyone

3. Social Security for all or a reverse income tax

4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone

5. Salary for attending school

6. Eliminate federal taxes on business

7. Increase the standard income tax deduction, annually. 

8. Tax the very rich (the “.1%”) more, with higher progressive tax rates on all forms of income.

9. Federal ownership of all banks

10.Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99.9% 

The Ten Steps will grow the economy and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–The magic of partial solutions

Twitter: @rodgermitchell; Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Mitchell’s laws:
•Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
•Any monetarily NON-sovereign government — be it city, county, state or nation — that runs an ongoing trade deficit, eventually will run out of money.
•The more federal budgets are cut and taxes increased, the weaker an economy becomes. .
Liberals think the purpose of government is to protect the poor and powerless from the rich and powerful. Conservatives think the purpose of government is to protect the rich and powerful from the poor and powerless.
•The single most important problem in economics is
the Gap between rich and poor.
•Austerity is the government’s method for widening
the Gap between rich and poor.
•Until the 99% understand the need for federal deficits, the upper 1% will rule.
•Everything in economics devolves to motive, and the motive is the Gap between the rich and the rest..

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THERE ARE NO SOLUTIONS; ONLY PARTIAL SOLUTIONS.

Nearly all human problems are solved in increments. It is rare for any problem to be solved entirely, by one all-encompassing solution.

Influenza is a problem. It is not completely solved by vaccination, but vaccination does reduce the number and severity of cases. Vaccination is a partial solution.

The Chicago Bears’s problem is in winning games. A better defensive line, or a better defensive backfield or a better quarterback will not solve the problem. But each is a worthwhile partial solution.

The widening income/wealth/power gap between the rich and the rest is a serious problem. Step #1 in the 10 Steps to prosperity (Eliminate FICA), won’t solve the problem. It’s a partial solution.

The inability of the poor to obtain a college education is a problem. A partial solution is Step #4 in the 10 Steps to Prosperity: Free education (including post-grad) for everyone.

It won’t solve the whole problem. Many poor students don’t receive enough of a K-12 education to allow for success in 13+. And some so need to work for dollars, even free college isn’t enough to attract them. Step #4 is a partial solution.

Each of the Ten Steps to Prosperity is “only” a partial solution.

Every scientific, business and technical advance in history is one “car” in a long train of partial solutions.

Yet some people regard seriously, the quasi-logical objection, “It won’t solve the problem.”

Gun murder is a problem. But any suggestions regarding the evaluation of gun purchasers, stricter gun laws or less lethal guns are dismissed by the National Rifle Association and its gun-manufacturer sponsors as not solving “the problem.”

“It won’t prevent mass murder.” “It won’t stop bad guys from getting guns.” “If someone wants to kill, they can use a knife.” “If guns are illegal, only criminals will have guns.” Etc, etc, etc..

But each gun-control proposal is an attempt at a partial solution, that to some degree will lessen the problem. Problems are solved by partial solutions.

Restricting gun ownership to just a few types of less lethal weapons, won’t prevent all gun-related murders. Some “bad guys” might acquire the more lethal weapons, but some might not. And even less-lethal weapons can kill. But isn’t preventing some gun-related murders an improvement?

And using a national database to prevent gun ownership by the mentally challenged or by criminals, will not prevent all mass school shootings. Some crazies and criminals will get guns. But isn’t stopping some mass shootings worthwhile?

And no, requiring gun owners to belong to that “well-regulated militia” mentioned in the Constitution, will not prevent all “bad guys” from acquiring guns — but it would stop some of them.

And adding an automatic 20-year sentence to any crime involving a gun, will not prevent all gun-related crimes — but it would stop some of them.

We all are born good guys. The first time someone commits a crime, he becomes a “bad guy.” The easy availability of guns turns some good guys into bad guys. Making guns less available is a partial solution to gun crime.

Many gun-related murders are committed in the home, by husbands, wives and other relatives and friends. A law requiring anyone receiving an order of protection, to turn in all guns in their possession, might prevent some of those gun murders.

Gun accidents occur in the home. A law requiring guns to have trigger locks when stored might prevent some gun accidents.

(This begs the question, “Would the NRA’s call for more gun ownership eliminate gun murder?” Of course not. Even the NRA could claim it only would be a partial solution, though in all probability it greatly would exacerbate the problem.)

This post has focused on gun injuries and killings, partly as an example of partial solutions, and partly because partial solutions routinely are demeaned by gun owners.

The need for partial solutions applies to all problems and all laws.

One could argue that even with laws against burglary, “bad guys” burgle, while “good guys” (victims) are at a disadvantage. They lose by being burgled.

Eliminate laws against burglary, and everyone could burgle, which would “level the playing field,” just as allowing everyone to carry a gun supposedly levels the playing field. So, shall we eliminate laws against burglary?

One could argue that no law makes sense, because “bad guys” will break the law, and the only people obeying the law would be “good guy” victims. Shall we eliminate all laws?

In a world without laws, the less moral — the bad guys — have a tactical advantage over the more moral. But fortunately in our society, we do have laws, which we base on some elements of our perceived morality, to protect the moral from the immoral.

We pass our laws, not believing they will be totally curative, but rather because we believe they will, to greater or lesser degree, be ameliorative.

Some prevention is better than none.

Bottom line: All laws restrict “good guys” and all laws are partial solutions. But we need laws.

Never demean the power of “only” partial solutions. Partial solutions are all we have.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

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Ten Steps to Prosperity:
1. Eliminate FICA (Click here)
2. Federally funded Medicare — parts A, B & D plus long term nursing care — for everyone (Click here)
3. Provide an Economic Bonus to every man, woman and child in America, and/or every state a per capita Economic Bonus. (Click here) Or institute a reverse income tax.
4. Free education (including post-grad) for everyone. Click here
5. Salary for attending school (Click here)
6. Eliminate corporate taxes (Click here)
7. Increase the standard income tax deduction annually Click here
8. Tax the very rich (.1%) more, with higher, progressive tax rates on all forms of income. (Click here)
9. Federal ownership of all banks (Click here and here)

10. Increase federal spending on the myriad initiatives that benefit America’s 99% (Click here)

The Ten Steps will add dollars to the economy, stimulate the economy, and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.
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10 Steps to Economic Misery: (Click here:)
1. Maintain or increase the FICA tax..
2. Spread the myth Social Security, Medicare and the U.S. government are insolvent.
3. Cut federal employment in the military, post office, other federal agencies.
4. Broaden the income tax base so more lower income people will pay.
5. Cut financial assistance to the states.
6. Spread the myth federal taxes pay for federal spending.
7. Allow banks to trade for their own accounts; save them when their investments go sour.
8. Never prosecute any banker for criminal activity.
9. Nominate arch conservatives to the Supreme Court.
10. Reduce the federal deficit and debt

No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.
1. A growing economy requires a growing supply of dollars (GDP=Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending + Net Exports)
2. All deficit spending grows the supply of dollars
3. The limit to federal deficit spending is an inflation that cannot be cured with interest rate control.
4. The limit to non-federal deficit spending is the ability to borrow.

THE RECESSION CLOCK
Monetary Sovereignty

Recessions come after the blue line drops below zero.

Monetary Sovereignty

Vertical gray bars mark recessions.

As the federal deficit growth lines drop, we approach recession, which will be cured only when the growth lines rise. Increasing federal deficit growth (aka “stimulus”) is necessary for long-term economic growth.

#MONETARYSOVEREIGNTY