Recently, I had a conversation with a young man who told me that federal deficit spending causes inflation. If you took an economics course in school, you probably agree with him because that is what they teach. His logic was simple. He has been taught:

1. Federal deficit spending increases the supply of dollars. When one increases the supply of any product, without increasing demand, the value of that product decreases. When the value of the dollar decreases, we experience inflation.
2. Adding money to the economy increases demand, which, in the absence of increased supply, causes shortages, which create inflation.

The problem with #1 is that money is unlike any other product or service. The demand for money is relatively inelastic. Example: You own a Tesla and learn that Teslas are now on sale at bargain prices. Will you buy an additional Tesla? Or you see that tomatoes are on sale, but you have a dozen at home. Do you want additional tomatoes? Probably not. But you have a million dollars and hear of an investment that will pay you another million at no risk. Do you want that additional million dollars? Probably so.

The point: Federal deficit spending adds dollars to the economy, but that additional supply doesn’t reduce the dollar’s value. In fact, if those extra dollars are used to obtain products or services that are in short supply, they can reduce the inflation caused by the shortages. That is the problem with #2, because when the federal government spends dollars in the economy, the economy usually responds by increasing the supply of goods and services. While deficit spending can be inflationary if it leads to excessive demand without corresponding increases in supply, spending can address supply-side constraints, boost productivity, and ultimately help reduce inflation. There can be no economic growth without federal deficit spending. The illusion that deficit spending causes inflation may come from hyperinflations, where governments print currencies in response to inflations.  It’s the “wheelbarrows filled with currency” visual we all have seen. In those situations, inflation has been caused by scarcities of critical products and services, such as oil, food, labor, transportation, etc., and the additional dollars do nothing to relieve those scarcities. When a government fails to address the real causes of inflation but instead prints currency, the inflation worsens, The illusion of cause and effect is reversed. Money “printing” doesn’t cause inflation. Inflation can cause money printing if a government doesn’t understand what really causes inflation: Shortages of crucial goods and/or services. It’s like a baseball team losing by five runs because it is short of good pitchers. So it trades its few decent pitchers for more hitters and starts losing by ten runs. Here is a graph demonstrating the relationship (or rather, lack of relationship) between federal deficit spending and inflation:

Presumably, if federal deficit spending caused inflation, the two lines would generally be parallel. They are not. In fact, they tend to move in opposite directions. One could use the above graph to demonstrate that federal deficit spending often cures inflation by reducing the shortages that do lead to inflation. By comparison, please look at the following graph:

The lines in the above graph are essentially parallel, indicating a close relationship between oil prices and inflation. Changes in oil supplies have had a far more profound and sudden effect on oil prices than changes in oil demand, which generally are slow. Overall, the graphs suggest that federal deficit spending plays, at most, a minor role in inflation, and possibly none at all, while oil supplies (in addition to supplies of food, shipping, labor, and other products) are the main drivers of inflation. Our most recent inflation was caused by COVID-related shortages of oil, food, shipping, labor, metals, wood, and other products. When these shortages were eased by federal deficit spending, inflation eased. This is an important fact because the threat of inflation is often used as an excuse for not federally funding social programs like Social Security, Medicare, and anti-poverty efforts. The income/wealth/power Gap is what makes the rich wealthy. Without the Gap, no one would be rich; we would all be the same. The wider the Gap, the wealthier are the rich. The wealthy are aware of this, and in their efforts to become even richer, they try to widen the Gap by increasing their own wealth and power and/or diminishing the resources of others. One way they do this is by claiming that the social programs are becoming insolvent and so must be cut or taxes increased. However, it is difficult for them to deny that the federal government could afford to fund these programs. Even the lie that the federal government would have to borrow dollars is easily debunked for two reasons:

1. As a Monetarily Sovereign entity, the federal government can create dollars at will by simply pressing keys on a computer. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.”
2. Even if the notion of future borrowing and increased interest payments were accurate (it isn’t), it would be of no significance to an entity that possesses the unlimited capacity to settle its debts by pressing computer keys. Statement from the St. Louis Fed: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.” 

So, the rich resort to the false claim that federal spending causes inflation. What they fail to mention is the following graph, which highlights the relationships between federal deficits and recessions: When federal deficit growth (red) decreases, we have recessions (vertical gray bars). Recessions always are cured by increases in federal deficit growth. Economic growth requires money growth. Here is an example of the close relationship between economic growth and money growth

The formula for Gross Domestic Product shows how money growth is necessary for economic growth:

GDP = Federal Spending + Non-Federal Spending + Net Exports

Net Exports generally are negative. (We import more than we export). So, GDP growth relies on federal and non-federal spending growth.

Then, of course, there is the fact that federal surpluses (the extreme version of deficit reduction) cause depressions (the extreme version of recessions). In fact, every depression in American history has resulted from surpluses.

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

All money is a form of debt. Have you noticed that every dollar bill (“bill” is a word that denotes debt) is a Federal Reserve note (“note” is another word denoting debt)? Each bill is signed by the Treasurer and the Secretary of the Treasury.

For example, an author owns a story he has written, though the story is not a physical entity. Similarly, the federal government is an author of federal dollars, though those dollars are not physical entities. And just as the author can create infinite stories, the government can create infinite dollars. All debt requires collateral. The collateral for federal debt is “full faith and credit.” This may sound nebulous to some, but it involves certain, specific, and valuable guarantees, among which are:

A. –The government will accept only U.S. currency in payment of debts to the government B. –It unfailingly will pay all its dollar debts with U.S. dollars and will not default C. –It will force all your domestic creditors to accept U.S. dollars if you offer them to satisfy your debt. D. –It will not require domestic creditors to accept any other money E. –It will take action to protect the value of the dollar. F. –It will maintain a market for U.S. currency G. –It will continue to use U.S. currency and will not change to another currency. H. –All forms of U.S. currency will be reciprocal, that is five $1 bills always will equal one $5 bill and vice versa.

The value of debt, i.e., the U.S. dollar, is based in part on the value of its collateral. Should any of A – H no longer be in effect, the dollar’s value would plummet. Another key factor influencing the value of the U.S. dollar is interest rates. Investments denominated in dollars, such as bonds and Treasury securities, are more sought after when they offer higher interest rates. Be cautious with this, as the value of a bond decreases when interest rates rise. Newly issued bonds offer higher rates and compete with older bonds. The key point is that dollars do not lose value, and inflation is not caused by the federal government’s increasing deficit spending. The government could easily fund Social Security and Medicare without imposing FICA taxes or triggering inflation. The wealthy classes’ arguments for cutting SS and Medicare benefits and raising taxes are unfounded and based on misleading claims. IN SUMMARY

1. Inflations are caused by scarcities, often due to oil and food shortages. Shortages of shipping, labor, metals, wood, and electronics can also be significant factors.
2. While deficit spending can be inflationary if it leads to excessive demand without corresponding increases in supply, spending can address supply-side constraints, boost productivity, and ultimately help reduce inflation.
3. Without federal deficit spending, there can be no economic growth and no solution to scarcity. The lack of federal debt growth causes recessions and depressions. Recessions are cured by federal (money) deficit growth.

The federal government could and should fund a comprehensive, no-deductible Medicare and Social Security for every man, woman, and child, regardless of age and income, while eliminating FICA.  We’ll end this post with excerpts from an article on the MSN website:

MAGA Republicans Dodge Questions About Their Own Party’s Plans To Gut Social Safety Net Story by Emine Yücel

Some House Republicans (show) interest in reviving the party’s longtime passion for gutting the social safety net in the wake of Donald Trump’s reelection and the coming Republican trifecta.

Reports have surfaced about cuts to programs like Medicaid and food stamps to offset the cost of extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.

Others are openly suggesting that Medicare and Social Security may be on the chopping block as part of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s performative venture into government spending cuts through the new Department of Government Efficiency.

But MAGA Republicans on Capitol Hill who recently spoke to TPM were unwilling to be pinned down on the issue.

The Republican Party promulgates public ignorance about the differences between federal (Monetarily Sovereign) finances and personal (monetarily non-sovereign) finances to put forth a “small government” agenda that will widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest of us.  Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell; MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell; https://www.academia.edu/

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY