Tag: federal deficits are unsustainable

–What does the Tea Party want? Ask Sarah Palin

An alternative to popular faith

It’s a peculiarity of the human species, that if you speak from the pulpit of patriotism or religion, you can spew almost any kind of nonsense, and gather followers.

Take Sarah Palin, perhaps the nation’s leading demagogue. She shouted this irrationality to a cheering Tea Party crowd, “Is this what their ‘change’ is all about? I want to tell them, nah, we’ll keep clinging to our Constitution and our guns and religion – and you can keep the change.” The mob screamed in ecstasy, without bothering to wonder what she meant.

Does “they” just refer to Democrats, or is “they” the whole U.S. government? Hard to tell. Ironic, how hating the government now equates with patriotism and the Constitution.

According to Mrs. Palin, “they” have violated the Constitution in some unexplained way. And she indicates “they” will take Tea Party guns and religion away. She doesn’t explain how “they” will do that, but so long as she wraps herself in the flag and religion, her worshipers won’t remind her she has no idea what the hell she’s talking about.

I empathize with Tea Party folks, because one thing they want, I also want: Lower taxes. But I would be embarrassed to allow a hate-mongering, anti-everything, nitwit like Sarah Palin be my guide.

Really folks, is this the best you can do? There are excellent, economic ways to reduce taxes (which you will see if you comb through this blog site). But knock it off with the American flags, the Constitution, guns and religion, none of which have anything to do with lowering taxes.

Unfortunately for Tea Party “logic,” they not only want lower taxes, but lower deficits and less government. At the same time, they want a stronger army, better schools, federal supervision of banks and other financial firms, better roads, defense of our borders, defense against terrorism, safer food, better retirement, better unemployment insurance, police, health care, rescue from hurricanes and other disasters, more jobs and a better environment.

Hey, Tea Party. The things you want cost money. So if you want both lower taxes and a reduced deficit, where will the money come from? Cutting both taxes and the deficit requires dramatically reduced government spending. So, how will that get you the things you want? It won’t. All it will get you is a Sarah Palin.

Sure, raw, mob emotion can make you feel strong. Look what it did for Joseph Goebbels. But eventually, morning will come and you will realize your torches, pitchforks and white sheets were silly. Only then, can we have the rational discussions that will help us create and take the steps to improve our nation.

Sadly, the “T” in Tea Party does not yet stand for “Think.”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


–Watch Ben Bernanke’s high wire balancing act

An alternative to popular faith

April 14, 2010: By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer; WASHINGTON – “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke […] testifying before Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, also once again called on lawmakers and the White House to come up with a plan to whittle down record-high budget deficits.”

Ben Bernanke is a smart man. He knows federal deficits are nothing more than a balance sheet measure of money created by the federal government. He knows the $12 trillion debt merely is a statement that in the history of the United States, the federal government has created $12 trillion net dollars. He knows that to “whittle down record-high budget deficits” is another way to say, the government should create and spend less money.

But also knows the federal government cannot default on debts of any size, and creating and spending money stimulates economic growth. So, he favors continuing federal stimuli (aka deficit spending).

If you think that is a mixed message consider this: He said, “A credible plan to pare the deficit could provide the economy with benefits in the near term, including lower longer-term interest rates and increased consumer and business confidence.” And, “A moderate U.S. economic recovery is likely to warrant very low interest rates for a long time.”

First, he says the deficit should be reduced in order to lower interest rates. Then, he says the Fed will keep rates low for a long time. Question: If the Fed can keep interest rates low for a long time, why does Bernanke need a plan to whittle down deficits?

Is it to avoid inflation? There is widespread belief that large deficits cause inflation, despite history saying otherwise. See: Deficits, inflation and hyperinflation And though raising interest rates prevents and cures inflation, the Fed believes it must keep rates low to “increase consumer and business confidence.”

What’s a guy to do? He keeps rates low and deficit spending high. But, he knows the public believes deficits are too high (This is the same public that wants neither tax increases nor to forgo the benefits stimulus spending buys. It wants a magical deficit decrease.) So Bernanke, by seeming to agree with the public, takes the political route, saying in essence, “Those high deficits aren’t my fault. Blame Congress and the President. I’m just doing what’s necessary to help the economy,” (which, don’t tell anybody, means running big deficits and keeping rates low).

The balance is not between what’s good and bad for the economy. That’s the easy part. The balance is between what’s good for the economy and what’s good politically. They are quite different, and the high wire balancing act is tough.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


–Debt Bomb Redux

An alternative to popular faith

Readers of this blog know the debt hawks have been telling us about the imminent explosion of the “debt bomb” since 1940, seventy (!) years ago. See: Federal debt a ticking time bomb/ and More debt bomb nonsense/.

Year after year, for seventy long years, Henny Penny has predicted the sky was about to fall, then each year has had to say, “Well maybe next year.” How often and how long can one repeat the same wrong prediction and still maintain any credibility?

Here’s the latest:

(CBS)The “Where America Stands” series: WASHINGTON, April 8, 2010; American Debt Threatens Status as World Power; Can America Still be the World’s Greatest Power, as the World’s Greatest Borrower? By Lara Logan
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“James Baker, Former U.S. treasury secretary, and U.S. secretary of state. ‘We’re in a real pickle,’ said Baker. ‘We will not be as important on the world scene if we continue to be a tremendously large debtor nation.’ […] I don’t think [America’s decline is] going to happen provided – one big proviso – that we deal with this debt bomb.’”

Although “debt bomb” is a catchy phrase, no one really knows what it means, nor does anyone supply evidence the federal debt is a “bomb.” Use of that phrase is a sure sign the speaker has no idea how today’s economy operates.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–Ben Bernanke and the popular faith

An alternative to popular faith

According to the April 8, 2010 Wall Street Journal, “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that huge U.S. budget deficits threaten the nation’s long-term economic health and should be addressed soon.” That is the popular faith, with “faith” being defined as belief without scientific evidence.

By using the words “addressed” and “soon” Mr. Bernanke is relieved of the responsibility to provide a specific solution or a timetable.

The Journal said, “In remarks to the Dallas Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Bernanke agreed […] that the economy, while improving is still too weak to bear all the new taxes and spending cuts that would come with an aggressive deficit reduction campaign.” The Journal continued, “Cutting the deficit ultimately will mean choosing between cutting (Social Security and Medicare) entitlements, raising taxes or other spending cuts.”

This is exactly correct. Federal deficits never have been shown to cause inflation (See: item #8. )or to have any other negative effect on people or on the economy in general. In fact, substantial evidence indicates that reducing deficits has caused nearly every recession and depression in our history. (See: Click here, items #3 and #4. )

By contrast, increasing taxes or cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits or cutting other expenses (defense, infrastructure, health care, food stamps, education, research, etc.) absolutely will have a negative effect on people and on the economy in general.

So which does a sane person choose, something not proven to have a negative effect or something proven to have a huge negative effect?

Mr. Bernanke worries large deficits cause high interest rates. He subscribes to the popular faith that low rates stimulate the economy, despite there being no historical relationship between interest rates and economic growth (See Item #10 ), as he should have learned from his, and his predecessor’s twenty futile rate cuts leading into the recession.

Quoting the Journal, “[…] higher rates push up borrowing costs for many businesses and consumers,” ignoring the many businesses and consumers who are lenders, and who benefit from higher rates. For every borrower there is a lender. All of you who own savings accounts, NOW accounts, money market accounts, corporate bonds and T-securities profit when rates are higher. It may surprise you to learn higher rates have been economically stimulative, because they’ve forced the government to pay more interest into the economy. Finally, some economic hypotheses indicate low rates were partly at fault for the housing bubble.

In summary, Mr. Bernanke promotes a goal with no proven benefit, provides neither a plan nor a timetable for achieving his goal, admits it would require tax increases and spending cuts, both of which hurt people and the economy, and he discusses a possible problem (high interest rates) history shows is more a benefit than a problem.

At long last, will someone please stand up and say, “The popular faith doesn’t seem to work. May we try something new?”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com