INTRODUCTION
When we rank the “worst” taxes, we consider those that do the least good and cause the most harm to the American people and the economy.
The U.S. federal government is unique. It is Monetarily Sovereign, unlike state and local governments, businesses, and individuals, which are monetarily non-sovereign.
Federal taxes take dollars from the economy and destroy them. Then, there’s the waste of money in calculating, paying, and collecting taxes, and punishing evaders.
It initially created the U.S. dollar—as many as it arbitrarily chose—and remains the only entity with the infinite ability to create dollars.
The federal government cannot unintentionally run short of dollars. Even if it didn’t collect a penny in taxes, it could continue spending forever.
Thus, no federal government agency can run short of dollars unless that is what the government wants.
Anyone who claims otherwise either is ignorant about federal financing or lying.
Often, you have seen and heard statements indicating the government or certain agencies of the government — Social Security, Medicare, et al. — are about to run out of dollars or that specific proposals — Medicare for All, increased anti-poverty benefits, etc. — are “unaffordable.”
You will encounter questions like, “Who will pay for it?” or “When will the government run out of other people’s money?”
Such statements deceive, intentionally or not.
Sadly, even government employees, media representatives, and economists who should know better repeatedly promulgate disinformation.
Sometimes, you will be treated with honesty, such as the following statements which have been repeated on this blog:
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan:“A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”
Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke:“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.”
Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell:“As a central bank, we have the ability to create money digitally.”
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank:“As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”
Different entities are Monetarily Sovereign over other forms of money. For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) is sovereign over the euro:
When asked, “Can the ECB ever run out of money?” Mario Draghi, the ECB president, replied, “No. We cannot run out of money.”The U.S. federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It cannot run short of U.S. dollars. It has infinite dollars.
Unfortunately, such honesty is rare, and we are more likely to be subjected to misleading statements:
Molly Dahl, the Chief of Long-Term Analysis at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), recently emphasized to the Senate Budget Committee that Social Security could run out of funds in about eight to nine years if no action is taken.
The Social Security Board of Trustees also projected that the trust funds could be depleted by 2035.
And,
The Medicare Board of Trustees has projected that the trust fund for Medicare Part A, which covers hospital insurance, could be depleted by 2031
Tricia Neuman, the executive director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, has also highlighted the need for action to avoid severe Medicare cuts.
Additionally, Robert Emmet Moffit, co-editor of Modernizing Medicare, has pointed out the financial challenges due to factors like the rising number of older Americans and advanced medical technology.
These “experts” and many others fail to mention that the problems could be eliminated at the stroke of a President’s pen by approving a Congressional bill that would, in essence, say, “The federal government will fully fund All Medicare and Social Security expenses.”
The federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars to fund anything. All federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt. When federal taxes are taken from the public, they begin as checking account dollars in the M2 money supply measure.
When they reach the U.S. Treasury, they suddenly cease to be part of any money supply measure. They simply disappear into the federal government’s infinite supply of money. Infinity plus any number equals infinity.Federal taxes do not provide the federal government with spending money. The government creates new dollars by paying creditors’ bills.
To pay a creditor, the government sends instructions (not dollars) to the creditor’s bank, instructing the bank to increase the balance in the creditor’s checking account. New dollars are added to the M2 money supply measure when the bank does as instructed.
The bank balances its books by clearing the transaction through the Federal Reserve system.
What, then, is the purpose of federal taxes?
Federal taxes assure demand for the U.S. dollar by requiring taxes to be paid in dollars.
Federal taxes allow the federal government to control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.
Then, there is the real function of federal taxes: To help the rich become even wealthier by widening the gap between the rich and the rest.
It is the Gap that makes the rich rich. Without the Gap, no one would be rich; we would all be the same. The wider the Gap, the richer. To become richer, one must accomplish two things: gain more wealth for oneself and/or ensure those below have less.
Federal tax laws accomplish the latter by granting tax exceptions for the kinds of income enjoyed by the wealthiest among us. Just one example:
Donald Trump on his federal tax returnsdeclared negative income in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2020, and that he paid a total of $1,500 in income taxes for the years 2016 and 2017. On their 2020 income tax returns, Trump and his wife Melania paid no federal income taxes and claimed a refund of $5.47 million.
Billionaire Donald Trump paid less income tax than you did from 2015 through 2020. And this is not an exception. It is a fundamental purpose of federal tax laws—the Gap-widening process for which the rich bribe Congress.
THE FOUR WORST TAXES IN AMERICA
Because the federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars, three of the four worst taxes are federal.
They take dollars from the private sector (also known as “the economy”) and transfer them to the government, where they are destroyed. Mathematically, federal taxes (but not state/local taxes), pay for nothing, reduce Gross Domestic Product, and are recessive.Relative to their income, the poor pay far more in sales taxes than the rich.4. The fourth worst taxes in America are the ones that are not federal: State and local sales taxes. Unlike the federal government, state/local governments are part of the U.S. economy.
They deposit tax dollars into bank accounts, which become part of the M2 money supply measure. Thus, state/local taxes are not mathematically recessive.
However, they are regressive. They negatively affect the rich much less than the rest of us simply because they use a smaller percentage of their income to purchase sales-taxable items.3. The third-worst tax in America is the federal capital gains tax. In theory, this tax could be somewhat beneficial. On the surface, it should tax the rich more than others because they are far more likely to have capital gains.
Further, the higher tax on short-term (one year or less) capital gains should encourage investment above speculation.
The reality is far different. The rich have bribed Congress to include so many exceptions and caveats in this highly complex tax law that the rules allow the rich to escape most if not all, taxation (See Donald Trump).
Though federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt, the tax could benefit the economy if it served a practical purpose: Narrowing the Gap between the rich and the rest.
In practice, it does the opposite.
2. The second worst tax in America is the federal tax on Social Security benefits. While the notion that the federal government should provide benefits to the elderly and disabled makes sense, unnecessarily taxing those benefits is senseless and regressive.
The people most in need of Social Security benefits have the least ability to pay taxes on the program’s already meager payments.
Despite having the infinite ability to pay benefits and unnecessarily collecting taxes on benefits, the federal government repeatedly has raised the minimum age for receiving full benefits:
Normal Retirement Age
Year of birth
Age
1937 and prior
65
1938
65 and 2 months
1939
65 and 4 months
1940
65 and 6 months
1941
65 and 8 months
1942
65 and 10 months
1943-54
66
1955
66 and 2 months
1956
66 and 4 months
1957
66 and 6 months
1958
66 and 8 months
1959
66 and 10 months
1960 and later
67
Taxing benefits while raising eligibility ages is unconscionable but perfectly rational for a government that has been bribed to widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.
1. The worst tax in America is FICA, the Federal Insurance Contributions Act. The federal payroll tax supposedly funds Social Security and Medicare programs. It is deducted from each paycheck and ostensibly provides financial and health care benefits for retirees, disabled Americans, and children.
It does none of those things. Like all federal taxes, it is destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury.
It is designed to impact salaried people in lower-income groups. It is not levied against the type of income the rich most enjoy, such as capital gains, interest, and other “non-income” income.
It is limited to salaries below $168,600. A person earning a million dollars a year would pay almost* the same amount of FICA tax as a person earning $168,000 a year. (*An extra 2% of salaries above $299K) is deducted for Medicare.)
Half of FICA supposedly is paid by businesses, but this is a charade. Businesses consider the cost of FICA when determining salaries, particularly for lower-paid employees. It is the lower-paid employees who ultimately suffer the full burden of FICA.
However, FICA encourages businesses to hire workers as independent contractors liable for their retirement financing. This allows companies financial room to pay higher salaries, giving the illusion of more generous compensation.
FICA and its sister taxes, the self-employment tax on individuals who work for themselves, and FUTA, the Federal Unemployment Tax Act that employers pay for unemployment insurance, are the worst taxes because they are the most regressive. They do the most to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest.
Taxing employment discourages businesses and the economy from employing people, which is exactly the opposite effect one would desire for any government action.
All federal employment taxes could and should be eliminated immediately.SUMMARY
Federal taxes do not fund federal spending. The federal government destroys all the tax dollars it receives.
Further, federal taxes reduce GDP, so they are recessive.
Federal tax laws, as currently written and enforced, are regressive widening the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.
However, federal taxes support demand for the U.S. dollar and help the government control the economy by taxing what it wishes to limit and giving tax breaks to what it wishes to encourage.
State and local taxes fund state and local spending. They do not reduce GDP but are often regressive.
All federal taxes should be eliminated except where the government wishes to limitsome activity.
Another means of federal control would be to use federal spending (rather than tax breaks) to support activities the government wishes to encourage.
The federal government could help reduce the regressive nature of state/local taxes by providing per capita aid to all states.
And yes, I know, federal spending supposedly causes inflation. That already has been debunked here, here, here, and elsewhere in this blog. Federal spending prevents and cures inflation when it acquires and distributes the scarcities causing inflation.
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary SovereigntyTwitter: @rodgermitchellSearch #monetarysovereigntyFacebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell;MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell; https://www.academia.edu/
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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.
Years ago, I took over a commodity brokerage with an employee who recently had won a chartist competition. A chartist is a securities researcher or trader who analyzes investments based on past market prices and technical indicators.
He had endless historical data and formulas for that data, and based on all that, he predicted the markets.
Despite winning a national competition, his trading proved to be a spectacular failure. While past data told him what had happened, He had no idea why it happened, so his predictions were worthless.
He didn’t understand cause and effect.
In this vein, an article claims to explain the cause of inflation to the last decimal point. Do you believe it?
Increased federal spending helped the economy bounce back during the pandemic, but it also caused a surge in inflation, research reveals. Inflation is difficult to control. Its cause is often even harder to pinpoint.
Yes, if all you have is formulas and you don’t understand how an economy works, the cause is hard to pinpoint. But that doesn’t stop technicians from trying to identify it.
In attempting to understand the 2022 spike in inflation that followed the pandemic, some policymakers — up to and including President Joe Biden — blamed shortages in the supply chain. But a new study shows that federal spending was the cause — significantly so.
“Our research shows mathematically that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain,” said Mark Kritzman, a senior lecturer at MIT Sloan.
Fascinating that Mr. Kritzman should conclude inflation was caused by spending.
If he were correct, net spending, i.e., the difference between taxes and gross spending, would cause inflation. That is what puts spending dollars into consumers’ pockets.
Net spending, or deficit spending, tells us how much money the federal government adds to the economy after taxes are subtracted.
Here is some data Mr. Kritzman may have overlooked:
No relationship exists between increases and decreases in federal net spending (red) vs. inflation (blue).
Not only does Mr. Kritzman overlook the data showing no correlation between netgovernment spending and inflation, he tries to put mathematical measures on how much total federal spending (ignoring taxes) affects inflation.
In writing “The Determinants of Inflation,” Kritzman and colleagues from State Street developed a new methodology that revealed how certain drivers of inflation changed in importance over time from 1960 to 2022.
In doing so, they found that federal spending was two to three times more important than any other factor causing inflation during 2022.
Specifically, their results showed that:
42% of inflation could be attributed to government spending.
17% could be attributed to inflation expectations — that is, the rate at which consumers expect prices to continue to increase.
14% could be blamed on high interest rates.
When you see those kinds of specific percentages, you should be doubtful, and when you see them attributed to something like “inflation expectations,” you should be incredulous. Does Mr. Kritzman believe he can measure consumer expectations and include that in an equation? Really?
You might have noticed that his results totaled 73%, leaving only 27% for oil shortages—the real cause of inflation.
Oil price changes (green) are closely related to inflation (blue).
The graph shows the essentially parallel tracks of oil prices and inflation. This is no coincidence; oil costs are part of virtually every product and service. In April 2020, OPEC agreed to a historic cut in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day starting in May 2020.
Despite massive federal net spending after 2015, inflation (blue) remained relatively low until COVID hit in 2020. Then, we had a recession (vertical gray bar), cured by increased federal net spending.
Inflation didn’t begin until April 2020, when OPEC cut oil supplies to raise prices. This reduction in supply led to inflation (green) that is only now being cured as oil prices drop.
Here is a closer look at inflation and oil during COVID:
Crude oil prices rose due to OPEC price control. This caused inflation to increase. Then OPEC lowered prices and inflation followed down.
Kritzman said that using government stimulus money to help the economy rebound during the pandemic made sense, given the unprecedented circumstances. “People really didn’t know if we were going to have a 1930s-type depression, so the government erred on the side of more stimulus than less stimulus,” he said.
“I don’t judge that to be a bad thing to have done, but it did cause this big spike in inflation,” Kritzman said. “What was surprising is not just that [the driver] was federal spending but that it was so overwhelmingly federal spending.”
Wrong. It was overwhelmingly OPEC oil shortages, along with other COVID-related scarcities of food, shipping, metals, lumber, computer chips, labor, and other scarcities, that caused inflation.
Here is how they came to their conclusion:
The authors arrived at their conclusion by using the Mahalanobis distance statistic, which has been used in a range of projects, from measuring turbulence in the financial markets to detecting anomalies in self-driving vehicles.
In their paper, researchers first used a hidden Markov model to identify four regimes of shifting inflation: stable, rising steady, rising volatile, and disinflation.
Then they used the Mahalanobis distance to figure out how eight different economic variables caused the economy to shift between those regimes. The economic variables the authors looked at were producer prices, wages/salaries, personal consumption, inflation expectations, interest rates, the yield curve, the money supply, and federal spending.
Finally, by applying an algorithm to the data from 1960 to 2022, they were able to see how inflation drivers had changed in importance over time. This enabled them to predict the likely path of future inflation — a capability that could potentially be of help to policymakers and investors alike.
The results dispel the notion that the supply chain could be blamed for the 2022 spike in inflation, Kritzman said.
The results may or may not dispel that notion, but they don’t deal with the fact that inflation is caused by shortages of critical goods and services, usually oil and/or food, not federal spending.
Here is their explanatory graph. As you will see, federal deficit spending is not even shown on their graph. Could it be because even they don’t believe it’s a relevant factor?
Examine their graph, and you’ll see a few peculiarities.
The first is that they mix cause and effect: Causes would be Personal Consumption, Interest Rates, Yield Curve, Money Supply, and Federal Spending.
The effects would be Producer Prices, Wages, and Salaries. It’s not clear how one can claim that producer prices cause inflation when they are caused by inflation.
2. If Personal Consumption is only 6.2% at fault, how is Federal Spending given 41% blame for inflation? Was all that inflation caused strictly by the government’s purchases, not by consumer purchases? Unlikely.
3. And if federal deficit spending flooded the economy with money, how did the money supply only increase by 2.9%?
4. Finally, there’s that amorphous “expectations” thing. How was that translated into dollars to reach the precise number 16.9%? If you had inflation expectations, how would you put a number on that?
How would you determine it was 13.9% responsible for changing your consumer buying or business selling prices?
The numbers in the above graph are what I like to call WAGs (Wild Ass Guesses), made to look scientific by applying fake mathematics.
“The narrative at the time was that the cause of inflation was interruptions to the supply chain because of COVID-19,” Kritzman said. “But that didn’t show up in producer prices
In other words, if supplies became scarce, then the prices of those supplies would go up, which we don’t see in our results at that point in time.”
The narrative should have been that all prices went up because of the scarcity of oil, food, shipping, metals, lumber, computer chips, labor, etc. That is the whole point:
We had inflation, not because of “excessive federal spending” but because of COVID-related scarcities.
Guidance for policymakers
The researchers’ findings indicate that the government and the Fed sometimes operate at cross purposes, Kritzman said. When the federal government overstimulates the economy, the Federal Reserve has to delay lowering interest rates.
The data refute the “overstimulates” notion. There was no historical relationship between federal spending and inflation.
“The more overstimulation there is, the more hawkish the Fed has to be to keep inflation under control,” Kritzman said.
Keeping inflation under control is not the Fed’s job. The Fed doesn’t have the tools. It’s Congress’s and the President’s job to prevent and cure the shortages of goods and services that cause inflation.
Taking the same approach that the researchers did, the Federal Reserve might be able to gain a deeper look at “the dynamics that are going on” — not just that inflation is up or down, he said. Instead, it offers insight into how the drivers of inflation change in importance through time.
Yes, sometimes a shortage of oil drives inflation. Other times, it’s a shortage of food, labor, or other production factors.
“I think that the Fed would be well advised to take this methodology and make it operational in how they monitor inflation and other things that they’re interested in,” Kritzman said.
No, Congress and the President should stop avoiding their responsibilities. They should assume control over inflation by preventing and curing shortages.
For example, encouraging and aiding oil drillers and refiners and releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were primary factors in ending the most recent inflation.
The same encouragement and aid should be given to all products and services, the shortages of which cause inflation.
The Wall Street Journal is owned by Rupert Murdoch, who supports 32 times convicted felon Donald Trump. Murdoch also owns extreme right-wing Fox News, which paid an $800 million fine for lying.
Need I say more?
Here are excerpts from an article that appeared in the WSJ. Comments are noted.
Federal Debt Is Soaring. Here’s Why Trump and Harris Aren’t Talking About It. Story by Richard Rubin, richard.rubin@wsj.com
The U.S. isn’t fighting a war, a crisis or a recession. Yet the federal government is borrowing as if it were.
The U.S. federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the unlimited ability to create U.S. dollars:
Alan Greenspan:“There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.”
If you owned a money-printing machine and had the unlimited, legal ability to create as many $100 bills as you wanted — at no cost to you — would you ever borrow dollars? Think about it.
The government has that “money-printing machine” and the legal right to create dollars. Why on earth would the government ever borrow dollars? Answer: The U.S. government never borrows dollars. Not ever.
Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”
The confusion is semantic. In the private sector, the words “bills,” “notes,” and “bonds” denote debt. “Bills” are what you owe in your daily life. Corporate “notes” and “bonds” are evidence of corporate debt.
By contrast, Treasury bills, notes, and bonds have nothing to do with government borrowing. They are deposits into Treasury Security accounts. Depositors, like China, the UK, and private citizens like you, own the money in these accounts; the federal government doesn’t.
The federal government never accesses those dollars for federal spending. It creates new dollars to pay all its bills.
To pay a creditor, the federal government creates instructions in the form of checks or wires. The instructions tell the creditor’s bank to increase the balance in the creditor’s checking account by a certain amount.
At the moment the bank obeys those instructions, new dollars are created and added to the M2 money supply measure.
To pay off the so-called “debt,” the federal government merely returns the depositors’ dollars that already reside in their T-security accounts. (Think of a safe deposit box in which depositors place valuables. The bank doesn’t use those valuables and returns them upon request by the depositors.)
Returning existing dollars is not a financial burden on the government or on federal taxpayers.
The confusion is not only semantic but also arises from the fact that the total of deposits equals the total of federal deficits. This is an anachronism from when the federal government was not wholly sovereign over the dollar and tied itself to silver and gold.
In short, federal “debt” is nothing like personal debt. The federal government is not “in debt.” It pays all its bills timely and in full, and can continue doing so.
Since dollars are a creation of laws, so long as the federal government has the ability to pass laws, it has the ability create dollars.
This year’s budget deficit is on track to top $1.9 trillion, or more than 6% of economic output, a threshold reached only around World War II, the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Publicly held federal debt—the sum of all deficits—just passed $28 trillion or almost 100% of GDP.
The “debt”/GDP ratio is meaningless. It says nothing about the federal government’s ability to pay. Debt nuts often quote this number to scare you, but it has absolutely no relevance to the federal government’s ability to pay its bills.
If Congress does nothing, the total debt will climb by another $22 trillion through 2034. Interest costs alone are poised to exceed annual defense spending.
These are big numbers but completely meaningless concerning the federal government’s solvency. The misnamed “debt” could be ten times or a hundred times as large, and the federal government easily could continue to pay all its bills.
Even if the government didn’t collect a single penny in taxes and the “debt” was a hundred times larger, it still could continue to pay its bills in full and in a timely manner.
Federal taxes are different from state and local taxes. State and local governments are monetarily non-sovereign. They do not have the unlimited ability to create dollars. They use tax receipts and borrowing to pay their financial obligations.
By contrast, the U.S. federal government does not use tax dollars or borrowing to pay its bills. The purposes of federal taxes are:
To control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.
To assure demand for the U.S. dollar by required taxes to be paid in dollars.
Economists and policymakers already worry that the growing debt pile could put upward pressure on interest rates, restraining economic growth, crowding out other priorities and potentially impairing Washington’s ability to borrow in case of a war or another crisis.
In one sentence, the author, Mr. Rubin, has articulated the four common lies about the so-called federal debt (that neither is federal nor debt).
The U.S. Federal Reserve sets interest rates at its whim in an effort to control inflation. This has nothing to do with the size of the federal “debt” as shown by the following graph:
There is no relationship between changes in federal “debt” (bleu) and interest rates (red).
There have been scattered warning signs already, including downgrades to the U.S. credit rating and lackluster demand for Treasury debt at some auctions.
Interest rates also are set to attract depositors, an exercise that became obsolete in 1971, when the government no longer required itself to match income with outflow.
2. Credit agencies set ratings based on the debtor’s ability and likelihood of paying promptly and in full. The federal government always pays timely and in full, so why would the rating ever go down?
Answer: This is not because of the size of the “debt” but because of Congress’s political gamesmanship. The party out of power limits the party in power’s ability to pay. It uses one of the more ridiculous laws, the so-called “debt limit” (which doesn’t limit the non-existent “debt.” It limits the government’s ability to pay its daily bills).
While the federal “debt” has grown from $400 billion to $33 trillion in just 80 years, “debt” downgrades have been few and sporadic, and related only to the fear that the debt nuts will prevent the government from paying, not to the size of the “debt.”
3. Federal deficits are necessary to grow the economy. It is mathematically impossible for the U.S. economy to grow unless the federal government pumps more money into the private sector (aka, the economy) than it takes out.
4. Federal deficit spending does not “crowd out” anything. It adds lending dollars to the economy.
With more dollars on deposit, the banks can lend more easily, and when the economy has more money, it is more likely to expand by borrowing. Nothing impairs Washington’s ability to borrow; the federal government never borrows.
5. “Lackluster demand” for T-securities is not a problem for the federal government. Selling T-securities doesn’t benefit the federal government. T-securities benefit buyers looking for a safe place to store unused dollars. That is why China buys them.T-securities are more secure than any bank China could find.
T-securities have two purposes, neither of which is to provide spending funds to the U.S. government:
— To help stabilize the dollar by providing safe storage for unused dollars
— To help the Fed control interest rates.
Both Harris and Trump have promised to protect the biggest drivers of rising spending—Social Security and Medicare. And both want to extend trillions of dollars in tax cuts set to lapse at the end of 2025, amid bipartisan agreement that federal income taxes shouldn’t rise for at least 97% of households.
Those are good political promises that would benefit the economy. Of course, the reality is that debt nuts will prevail because of voter ignorance. Thus, you can expect the same strong support for cutting benefits to the middle- and lower-income groups as we have seen in the past. The eligibility age for Social Security will continue to go up, and benefits will be taxed further.
Trump has promised to exempt tips from taxation, end income taxes on Social Security benefits, eliminate taxes on overtime pay, lower tax rates for companies that manufacture in the U.S., and create a new deduction for new parents’ expenses, offering more than $2 trillion in tax cuts atop $4 trillion to extend his first-term tax cuts.
These are good ideas, but as has been typical of Trump’s promises, they’re all verbal tooth-fairy stuff. It’ll happen only in your dreams.
Harris matched Trump’s tips idea and called for an expanded child care tax credit, including $6,000 for parents of newborns.
If the Republican House allows an expanded child care tax credit and $6,000 for newborns — which it won’t.
How did the U.S. fiscal path simultaneously become economically more alarming yet politically less relevant? Federal debt and deficits have blown past various imagined red lines and feared consequences have not materialized.
Keep that phrase in mind: “Feared consequences have not materialized.” The reason: The feared consequences were based on lies. There are no adverse consequences for federal deficits.The consequences are for not running deficits or even for deficits that are too low.
Interest rates, at least until 2022, stayed low. The dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, giving the U.S. far more running room than other major countries. The U.S. of 2024 is not Greece of 2007. There is risk, but there is no fiscal crisis.
There has been no financial crisis simply because federal “debt” is not a financial crisis. The whole thing is a giant lie spun by the rich to prevent the rest of us from receiving benefits.
The tax on Social Security benefits is ludicrous. Why would any sane government tax the benefits it provides?
The fact that the U.S. dollar is the world’s most common reserve currency does not give the U.S. “more running room” (whatever that is). It merely means that the world’s banks carry more U.S. dollars in reserve to facilitate international trade.
It does not protect us from financial difficulties; Monetary Sovereignty protects us from financial difficulties.
And yes, the U.S. is not Greece (or France, Germany, or Spain), none of which is Monetarily Sovereign. Those nations are more like Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin. They cannot create the money they use. The European Union (EU) is like the U.S. federal government in that itis Monetarily Sovereign and has the unlimited ability to create euros.
“We’ve learned we borrowed more than we realized we could,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was a top aide to President Barack Obama. “And we’ve actually borrowed more than we expected.”
Actually, Mr. Harvard economist, we haven’t borrowed at all. You’re surprised because the economy has grown due to increased federal deficit spending.
You simply can’t figure out why deficit spending seems to grow the economy while insufficient deficit spending leads to recessions (which are cured by more deficit spending).
Why it’s a mystery to you is the real mystery.
When deficit growth declines, we have recessions (vertical gray bars), which are cured by deficit increases.
Sadly, this simple graph shows that declines in deficit growth repeatedly lead to recessions, which are cured by increasesin deficit growth.
Yet economically ignorant pundits continue to rail against deficit growth.
If anything, borrowing kept the economy afloat during the 2007-09 financial crisisand pandemic, and lawmakers were rewarded for it. Polls show the public is concerned about the deficit, but they also prefer politicians who dangle tax cuts, stimulus checks and money for the military.
If you believe borrowing “kept the economy afloat,” why do you oppose it?
At any rate, there was no borrowing. There was money creation, which the federal government can do in any amount, at will. The financial crisis was caused by excessive private-sector borrowing, not by non-existent federal borrowing.
The author demonstrates a failure to understand the difference between private sector and federal finances.
“No president in history, Republican or Democrat, gets a gold star or a Nobel Prize for reining in spending, the deficits and our debt,” said Rep. Jodey Arrington (R., Texas), chairman of the House Budget Committee. “Nobody gets the golden meat cleaver award.”
Thank heaven for that, because the “golden meat cleaver” cuts the legs off economic growth. (See: Ignorance is hard to conquer if the ignorant want to remain that way.)
Whoever wins in November will soon face two big fiscal tests. One is the need to raise the federal debt limit, likely in mid-2025.
No, the test will be to eliminate, not raise, the ridiculous “debt limit,” a law based on the rich’s desire to widen the income/wealth/power Gapbetween them and the rest. It is the Gap that makes them rich. Without the Gap, no one would be rich; we all would be the same. And the wider the Gap, the richer they are.
The two ways for the rich to become richer are: Gain more for themselves and/or make sure those below them have less. That is why cutting your benefits makes the rich richer.
In both 2011 and 2023, the threat of default without a debt-limit increase led to compromises that reduced red ink.
Any default would be caused by the idiotic, unnecessary “debt ceiling.” Compromises are political theatre based on lies.
The other trigger is the looming expiration of much of the 2017 tax law.
That is the tax law Trump passed to help the rich widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.
It was a tax law that If Congress doesn’t act by the end of 2025, taxes would rise on most households, a path to deficit reduction that both parties say they don’t want.
Imagine that. Congress wants to keep taxes low, but not increase the deficit. Anyone have a magic wand to make that happen?
In the early 1990s, when deficits were much smaller, deficit hawks were powerful enough in both parties to produce bipartisan deals that raised taxes and lowered spending. Those agreements helped drive the budget into balance in the late 1990s. Federal debt fell to about one-third of GDP.
And that budget balancing is what led to the recession of 2001, which was cured by federal deficits.
As deficit growth fell, we had a recession, which was cured when deficit growth resumed. This has happened repeatedly in U.S. history, yet debt nuts still call for deficit reduction.
When he first ran for president in 2016, Donald Trump said he would pay off the national debt within eight years. He went in the opposite direction: Debt rose from less than $15 trillion to more than $21 trillion by the time he left office.
What?? Donald Trump lied? Hard to believe. But good thing he did. The rise in “debt” fueled economic growth.
Trump made two major decisions that broke with Republicans in Congress and drove up federal borrowing.
Republicans had long advocated making Social Security and Medicare less generousand more fiscally sustainable. To appeal to middle-class voters, Trump embraced what had long been a Democratic position and shut down discussion of broad benefit cuts.
As always, Republicans wanted to cut benefits for those who are not rich. Trump saw that the voters would not buy into the lie, so he wisely increased the “debt.”
And to call Social Security and Medicare “generous” is laughable. No one can live on Social Security benefits, and Medicare covers, at best, only 80% of costs. Still, the right-wing can hardly wait to cut, cut, cut.
Then in 2017, when House Republicans sought to cut tax rates, Trump resisted their attempts to offset the full cost. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Trump eventually signed into law was projected then to increase deficits by $1.5 trillion over a decade.
And it helped make the rich richer.
Once the pandemic started, Trump joined the broad economic consensus that the U.S. needed to pour money into the economy, eventually adding more than $3 trillion to the debt to provide stimulus checks, enhanced jobless benefits and other relief.
O.K., debt nuts, why does pouring money into the economy grow the economy, but only is a good thing when the economy is in trouble? It makes no sense.
President Biden and Harris expanded on Trump’s pandemic spending with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which included another round of stimulus checks and aid to state and local governments.
The stimulus checks were a toe-in-the-water introduction of Social Security for All, which America should have. It worked as desired, which is why Congress didn’t repeat them.
Biden, with Harris’s strong backing, canceled student debt in a series of executive orders that could cost the government more than $1 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The plan is now stuck in litigation as (right-wing) courts have curtailed Biden’s authority to cancel debt.
“I don’t think we’ve seen a president spend nearly as much without Congress as Biden,” said Marc Goldwein, the CRFB’s senior vice president.
Biden took over where the Republican Congress played politics with the economy. Putting students into debt is as stupid as it gets for a nation that claims it needs an educated population to compete on the world stage.
What happens if Trump wins depends on Congress. If Republicans also control the House and Senate, his next term could look a lot like his first—occasional talk about debt and deficits paired with tax cuts that expand both.
“Paired with tax cuts” for the rich along with deportations of much of our workforce (which would destroy the economy), the promised firing of millions of government workers (which would destroy our government), and the hiring of Trump’s incompetent friends and relatives (which would make Trump a dictator).
In his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, Trump said, “We’ll start paying off debt and start lowering taxes even further.”
Nonpartisan experts say there’s virtually no chance of that. Paying off debt would require the U.S. to shift from massive deficits to surpluses.
Tax cuts would work in the opposite direction. Low tax rates can encourage growth and generate some revenue, but not enough to offset the loss of revenue, economists in both parties acknowledge.
Federal surpluses take dollars out of the economy. How this is supposed to cause economic growth is a mystery never explained by the debt nuts.
Every federal surplus in history has caused a depression, but one, the 1997 recession “only” caused a recession.
1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807.
1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.
1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.
The reason for the above is no mystery. GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports. Reduce federal deficits, and you will reduce both federal spending and nonfederal spending. Simple algebra.
Trump has indicated that he wants to extend the pieces of his 2017 tax law that expire after 2025 and lower the 21% corporate tax rate to 20%, and 15% for some companies. His recent proposals—eliminating taxes on workers’ tips, overtime pay and retirees’ Social Security benefits—dig a deeper hole.
He’s also made other proposals that would entail significant new spending, including a mass deportation program and a domestic missile-defense system.
These are good proposals except for his deportation crime. This would destroy lives, destroy the economy of America and the world, and destroy America ‘s reputation. We would forever be stamped as a vicious, mean-spirited banana-republic dictatorship.
Trump has touted several ideas that could reduce deficits. One is impoundment, in which the president refuses to spend money Congress has appropriated. That’s legally and constitutionally dubious.
And economically suicidal.
The other is tariffs. Trump wants to impose a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods and even higher on Chinese products. That could raise about $2.8 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Policy Center.
That $2,8 trillion would come from the pockets of American consumersand the economy. It’s incredibly ignorant, which is why debt nuts will love it.
House Republicans have proposed capping federal spending growth at a level lower than inflation, though the party is split and some want significant increases in the defense budget.
Capping spending will cause a recession or depression, as it always has. Sadly, the American voter is ignorant about federal finances, so will vote for a damaging and unnecessary cap.
Arrington, who is helping cobble together Republicans’ agenda if they have full control of Congress, said they need to tackle spending and entitlement programs and hopes Trump, despite his statements to the contrary, could be open to that.
“We have an opportunity to live up to what we claim we believe when we campaign and why almost every Republican member was sent here to Congress by their constituents,” he said.
Arrington claims Republican constituents want Congress to cut Social Security and Medicare. That’s what his voters want? Really?
First, while the budget would raise taxes on the rich and corporations, the revenue isn’t enough to deliver the claimed deficit reduction, pay for Harris’ child tax credit and home-buyer subsidy proposals, and cover the Biden-Harris proposals to extend expiring cuts to prevent tax increases on households earning less than $400,000.
Second, the chances Congress would agree to such a plan are slim, even in the unlikely event Democrats control both the House and Senate. Biden couldn’t get centrist Democratic senators to pass his tax increases in 2022. Harris could face similar opposition and already dialed back Biden’s proposed capital-gains tax increase.
All of the above nonsense is due to one thing: The Big Lie that federal taxes fund federal spending. Let’s clarify this as simply as possible.
Federal taxes do not fund anything.
Even if the government collected $0, it could continue spending forever.
The government pays for everything by creating new dollars ad hoc.
Biden officials see next year’s tax debate as a crucial pivot point, and the White House has said any extension of expiring tax cuts should be paired with tax increases.
Ridiculous. Federal taxes pay for nothing. They are a useless drain on the economy.
Biden has proposed some Medicare savings through prescription drug pricing and has called for shoring up Social Security, which is paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes.
Federal payment of more benefits than it collects in taxes grows the economy (aka the private sector).
But the parties are at odds over whether Social Security taxes and benefits should increase, and that gridlock means the program likely won’t be addressed for about a decade, when its trust fund is projected to be exhausted, triggering benefit cuts.
The federal government should simply pay for Social Security and Medicare to “shore up” them.
Not including interest, the U.S. government will spend $1.21 for every $1.00 it collects in revenue this year. Add interest and that climbs to $1.39.
Mathematically, that $.21 (or $.39) difference will grow the economy. Growing the economy is impossible if the federal government runs a surplus.
Voters often support balanced budgets in theory, but they also like the low taxes and higher spending of the past few decades.
Wanting federal balance budgets merely indicates that the public, having been fed the Big Lie so often, has become ignorant about federal finances.
“It’s really the combination of high deficits, high debt level, high interest burden,” said Richard Francis, the lead U.S. analyst for Fitch Ratings, one of those companies. “And we didn’t see any willingness to tackle the big issues.”
Total BS. Since 1940, the U.S. government has had high deficits, a high “debt level,” and often high interest rates, but it has never been downgraded. Why? Because Congressional infighting has become so fierce that the rating agencies were afraid the government would refuse to pay its bills out of spite toward the other side.
At some point, maybe, the U.S. will find it difficult to borrow.
The U.S. government never borrows.
At some point, interest costs may constrain policymakers.
The U.S. government has the infinite ability to pay interest.
At some point, bond investors may look at the U.S. political system and decide there’s a real risk they won’t get paid back—then begin demanding higher interest rates.
That only could happen if we continue with the astoundingly stupid, totally unnecessary, absolutely harmful “debt ceiling.”
“It’s going to be a 2029, 2030 exercise,” said Schneider of Piper Sandler.
Write to Richard Rubin at richard.rubin@wsj.com
It will be worse if publications like the Wall Street Journal continue printing lies, politicians continue speaking lies, and economists continue teaching lies to fool the public.
If you don’t want to feel useless, don’t do what I just did. Out of curiosity, I looked at the first post I ever made on this blog.
It was back in 2009, fifteen years ago. To my chagrin, I discovered that virtually nothing has changed.
The graphs automatically updated, but they make exactly the same points they did then. The commentary has been updated to reflect the latest graph numbers. But the issues are the same.
The people decrying the federal debt (that isn’t federal and isn’t debt) still make the same false claims. The people who say the federal government is running short of dollars still do. The people who warn that the federal debt is a “ticking time bomb” continue to make the same false warning.
I empathize with Ignaz Semmelweis as for 15 years I have faced the Semmelweis reflex. Now, as 90 approaches, I hope to avoid what happened to poor Dr. Semmelweis.
What follows is a repeat of that 2009 post, with the aforementioned updates.
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Mitchell’s laws: The more budgets are cut and taxes inceased, the weaker an economy becomes. To survive long term, a monetarily non-sovereign government must have a positive balance of payments. Austerity = poverty and leads to civil disorder. Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
Kermit the frog famously said, “It isn’t easy being green.” It also isn’t easy convincing people that traditional economics not only is hypothetically wrong, not only is factually wrong, but is wrong to such a degree it is extremely harmful to our economy.
The more extreme debt hawks believe the U.S. federal government should run a balanced budget or even have no debt at all. The more moderate debt hawks feel some debt may be necessary at times, but to them, federal debt is like bitter medicine you take only when absolutely necessary.
Semmelweis
All debt hawks, whether extreme or moderate, are long on twisted “facts” but short on evidence.
Their “facts” inevitably include federal deficit and debt measures, projections for the future, debt/GDP ratios, and spending on Medicare and Social Security.
However, when they interpret the facts, they provide no evidence that their interpretations reflect reality.
By contrast, here are facts and a few opinions, which you may interpret for yourself.
1. Fact: Money is the way modern economies are measured. By definition, a large economy has a larger money supply than does a small economy.
Therefore, a growing economy requires a growing supply of money. QED
The graph below shows the essentially parallel paths of GDP vs. perhaps the most comprehensive measure of the money supply, Domestic Non-Financial Debt:
One could argue that money begets production or that production begets money, and both would be correct. The point is that money supply (i.e. debt) and GDP go hand-in-hand. Reduced debt growth results in reduced economic growth.
2. Fact: All money is debt and all financial debt is money. In addition to being state-sponsored, legal tender, there are four criteria for modern money:
–Monetarily Sovereign money must be defined in a standard unit of currency.
–MS money has no, or limited, intrinsic value.
–The demand for money is determined by its risk (danger of default or devaluation, i.e., inflation) and its reward (interest rates).
–To have value, money must be owned by an entity other than the entity that created it.
The above criteria describe many forms of money, including currency, bank accounts, T-securities, corporate bonds, and money markets. All forms of money are debt, and a growing economy requires a growing supply of debt/money.
2.a. Fact: Federal “deficit” is a statement of the net amount of money the federal government has created in one year. Opinion: The word “deficit” is pejorative. A more neutral description would be money “created” or “added,” as in, “The government has created $1 trillion,” or “The government has added $1 trillion to the economy.”
Compare the psychological meaning of those statements with the current phrasing, “The government has run a $1 trillion deficit.”
3. Fact: U.S. depressions tend to come on the heels of federal surpluses.
1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.
4. Fact: Recessions tend to follow reductions in federal debt/money growth (See graph below), while debt/money growth has increased when recessions are resolving.
Taxes reduce debt/money growth. No government can tax itself into prosperity, but many governments tax themselves into recession.
The graph shows that deficit reductions lead to recessions (vertical gray bars), which are cured by deficit increases
5. Fact: On August 15, 1971, the federal government gave itself the unlimited ability to create debt/money by completely abandoning the gold standard. This ability is called Monetary Sovereignty.
Because the federal government now has the unlimited ability to create dollars, it neither taxes or borrows in order to obtain dollars. It simply creates them ad hoc. Tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt.
When you pay your taxes, you take dollars from your checking account. These dollars were part of the M2 money supply measure.
6. Fact: Federal “debt” is the total of outstanding Treasury Securities. Here is Treasury Securities, incorrectly termed “borrowing” come into existence.
–You tell the government to debit your checking account and credit your Treasury security account by the same amount. The process is similar to transferring money from your checking account to your savings account.
To “pay off” the Treasury Security, the government simply debits your T-security account and credits your checking account.
Thus, the government could pay off all its so-called “debt” tomorrow simply by debiting all T-security accounts and crediting the T-Security owners’ checking accounts.
The entire process neither adds nor subtracts money from the economy (but for interest paid).
Our Monetarily Sovereign government does not borrow the money it has already created but rather exchanges one form of U.S. money (T-securities) for another (dollars). The entire “borrowing” process is actually nothing more than an asset exchange.
Do T-securities have any benefit? Yes, federal interest payments add to the money supply, an economically stimulative event. Federal interest payments help the government control interest rates and the dollar’s value. (The higher the interest, the greater the value of the dollar, and the more the economy receives in growth dollars.
T-securities (debt) are not functionally related to the difference between taxes and spending (deficits). They are related only by laws requiring the Treasury to create T-securities in the amount of the deficit.
The Treasury can create T-securities (debt) without a deficit, and the government can run a deficit without creating T-securities. Federal debt is not functionally the total of federal deficits.
7. Fact: Federal taxes, as a money-raising tool, are unnecessary, harmful and futile:
— unnecessary because since 1971 (when the U.S. government became fully Monetarily Sovereign), the government has had the unlimited ability to create money without taxes,
–harmful because taxes reduce the money supply, which reduction leads to recessions and depressions, and
–futile because tax money sent to the government is destroyed upon receipt by the U.S. Treasury.
When you send taxes to the government, you are sending M2 dollars, but when they reach the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure. They effectively are destroyed.
Our Monetarily Sovereign government does not store dollars for future use. It can create unlimited dollars ad hoc by paying bills.
The so-called “debt” merely accounts for the total outstanding T-securities created out of thin air by the federal government.
The government decide to create T-securities equal to the deficit, but this requirement became obsolete in 1971 when we went off the gold standard and became Monetarily Sovereign.
Today, the federal government creates money by spending, i.e. it credits checking accounts to pay its bills. This crediting of checking accounts adds dollars to the economy.
The federal “deficit” is the net money created in one year and the federal “surplus” is the net money destroyed in one year. In short, deficit spending creates money and taxing destroys money. If taxes fell to $0 or rose to $100 trillion, this would not affect by even one dollar, the federal government’s ability to spend.
Further, (opinion)all tax (money-destroying) systems are unfair. See: http://rodgermitchell.com/FairTaxes.html. For a country with the unlimited power to create money, spending is not related in any way to taxing.
8. Fact: Contrary to popular myth, there is no post-gold standard relationship between federal debt and inflation. (See graph, below)
Also, contrary to popular myth, inflation is not caused by “excessive federal spending.” Inflation is caused by shortages of crucial goods and services, most often oil and/or food. (See the graph, below)
In this regard, hyperinflations are not caused by “money-printing,” but rather by shortages. So-called “money printing” (ala Zimabwe and Germany), were the governments’ response to hyperinflation, not the cause.
The most recent inflation was caused by COVID-related shortages of oil, food, shipping, computer chips, metal, housing, lumber, and labor, among other things. As the shortages have been reduced, so has the inflation.
9. Fact: There is no post-gold standard relationship between federal debt and your taxes.
Unlike state/local governments, which are monetarily non-sovereign, the federal government does not use tax dollars to pay its bills. It creates new dollars, from thin air, every time it pays a creditor.
The sole purposes of federal taxes are:
–To control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.
–To assure demand for the U.S. dollar by requiring all federal taxes to be paid in dollars.
Taxes do not pay for federal spending. Federal spending creates dollars.
9.a. Fact: Federal deficit spending does not use “taxpayers’ money.” Federal spending creates money ad hoc.
When the government spends it credits bank accounts. No taxes involved. By definition, deficit spending means taxes do not equal this year’s spending let alone previous year’s spending. Only surpluses use taxpayers’ money, by causing recessions.
For the above reasons, our children and grandchildren will not pay for today’s money creation. Still, they will benefit from today’s deficit spending — better infrastructure, army, education, R&D, safety, security, health, and retirement.
Any time you hear or read about the federal government spending “taxpayers’ money,” know that the person is ignorant about Monetary Sovereignty. The federal government doesn’t spend taxpayers’ money. Period.
10. Fact: There is no post-gold standard relationship between low interest rates and high GDP growth. Opinion: The opposite seems true:
The interest rate and economic growth lines move in opposite directions.
Why do high interest rates stimulate? Opinion: High rates force the federal government to pay more interest, pumping more money into the economy.
11. Fact: The Federal debt/GDP ratio is a meaningless fraction, because it measures two, mathematically incompatible pieces of data. It’s an apples/oranges comparison. GDP is a one-year measure of output; federal debt is the net outstanding T-securities created since the nation’s birth.
The T-securities created years ago affect this year’s debt in the debt/GDP ratio, while even last year’s GDP does not affect this ratio. See: Debt/GDP
Because federal debt is the total of T-securities, and the federal government has the functional ability to stop creating T-securities at any time, the Debt/GDP ratio easily could fall to 0, depending on federal law.
11.a. Fact: The debt/GDP ratio does not measure the federal government’s ability to pay its bills. The government does not pay bills with GDP; it creates the money ad hoc to pay its bills.
Were GDP to be $0, the government still could pay bills of any size, simply by crediting the bank accounts of its creditors.
12. Facts: In 1979, gross federal debt was $800 billion. In 2009 it reached $12 trillion, a 1400% increase in 30 years. During that period, GPD rose 440% (annual rate of 5.5%>) with acceptable inflation. The same 1400% increase would put the debt at $180 trillion in 2039, a mean annual deficit of $5+ trillion.
This calculates to a 9.5% annual debt increase for the past 30 years. Repeating that growth rate would put the 2010 deficit at about $1.14 trillion, and the 2011 deficit at about $1.25 trillion. The deficit for year 2039 would be about $15.8 trillion.
Opinion: I know of no reason why the results would not be the same as they have been in the past 30 years. However, increasing the debt growth rate above 9.5% might show even better results:
In the 10 year period, 1980 – 1989, federal debt grew 210%, from $900 billion to $2.8 trillion (a 12% annual debt increase), while GDP grew .96% from $2.8 trillion to $5.5 trillion (a 7% annual increase). During that same period, inflation fell from 14.5% in 1980 to 5.2% in 1989. See graph, below.
The peaks and valleys of federal deficits (blue) generally correspond to the peaks and valleys of real (inflation adjusted) Gross Domestic Product growth. The reason: GDP = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports
Facts: In summary, large deficits have coincided with real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth
12. Facts: Any health insurance proposal that covers more people will cost more money. Extracting that money from doctors, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, by necessity, would reduce the availability of health care.
Increasing taxes on any individuals (even the wealthy) or on businesses, will depress the economy by removing money from the economy. Only the federal government can supply additional money while stimulating the economy.
13. Fact: Social Security is supported neither by FICA nor by a trust fund. Were FICA eliminated, and benefits doubled, Social Security still would not go bankrupt unless Congress decided to make this happen.
In June, 2001, Paul O’Neill, Secretary of the Treasury said, “I come to you as a managing trustee of Social Security. Today we have no assets in the trust fund. We have promises of the good faith and credit of the United States government that benefits will flow.“
Yet, SS continues to pay benefits. Your Social Security check comes from a mythical trust fund that contains no money and receives no money.
Social Security (and Medicare) benefits are paid ad hoc by the U.S. government, not from a trust fund, and are not dependent on FICA taxes. which (opinion:) can and should be eliminated. See: FICA
14. Fact: The finances of the federal government are different from yours and mine and businesses’ and state, county and city government finances.
Unlike the federal government, which is Monetarily Sovereign, we cannot create unlimited amounts of money to pay our bills. We first need to acquire money, either by borrowing or by saving, to spend.
The federal government does not acquire money. It creates money by spending. As an accounting principle, the tax money you send to the government is destroyed upon receipt. Then the federal government creates new money to pay its bills. The government has no fund from which it pays bills.
Fact: Were taxes to decrease to zero, this would not change by even one penny, the federal government’s ability to spend.
Opinion: The failure to recognize the difference between the Monetarily Sovereign federal government and all other entities, which are monetarily non-sovereign, is the primary reason for recessions and depressions.
15. Fact: The federal government has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay any bill of any size. It never can run short of dollars; it never can go broke.
Opinion: The federal government should distribute dollars to each monetarily non-sovereign state, on a per capita basis.
The states would determine how they distribute the dollars (to counties, cities and/or taxpayers). I suggest a distribution of $5,000 per person or a total of $1.5 trillion.
Fact: In 1971, the U.S. went off the gold standard, thereby becoming a Monetarily Sovereign nation, and at that moment, all economics textbooks became obsolete. Sadly, mainstream economists, the politicians and the media have not yet caught up.
Summary: So there you have a list of facts, plus a few opinions, which I have noted. Read the facts and draw your own inferences.
You can find a great number of debt-hawk sites (i.e. Concord Coalition, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget), which in essence are privately funded think tanks, paid to influence popular belief, with propaganda masquerading as data.
There, you will see data showing the size of the federal debt. These data are presented in a way designed to imply that the debt (money created) is too large.
But you will find no proof of these ideas. You will see no historical graphs equating debt with any negative economic outcome, simply because such graphs do not exist. Debt hawks believe federal deficits are so obviously bad, no proof is needed.
Yet, despite lacking proof, debt-hawks have foisted their opinions on the media, the politicians, weak-minded economists, and the public, much to the detriment of our economy.