–What will cause the next inflation?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

The debt hawks say federal deficit spending will cause inflation. History says they are wrong. There is no post-1971 (end of the gold standard) relationship between federal deficits and CPI. (See: INFLATION) In fact, despite massive deficit spending, the Fed today is most worried about deflation.

Nevertheless, I now believe inflation has become a threat.

In a letter dated October 1, 2010, John Mauldin said:

“John Hofmeister is the former president of Shell Oil and now CEO of the public-policy group Citizens for Affordable Energy. He paints a very stark picture of the future of energy production in the US unless we change our current policies. First, because of the aftereffects of the moratorium. It is his belief that the drilling moratorium will effectively still be in place until at least the middle of 2012. There won’t even be new rules until the end of 2011, and then the lawsuits start.

“Gulf oil production will be down by up to 1 million barrels a day. Imported oil is now 67% of oil usage but will go to 75% by 2012. He thinks crude oil will be up to $125 and gasoline between $4-$5 at the pump. And it will only get worse.

“He describes the problem with the electricity from coal production. The average coal plant is 38 years old, with a planned-for life of 50 years. Our energy production capability is rapidly aging, and we are not updating it fast enough.

“He argues that the fight between the right and the left has given us 37 years without a realistic energy policy, as policy gets driven by two-year political cycles but good energy planning takes decades. There are 13 government agencies that regulate the energy industry, with conflicting mandates that change very two years. There are 22 congressional committees that have some level of involvement and oversight of the energy industry.”

Why is this important for inflation? Because although federal deficits do not correlate with inflation, energy prices do. And if we have the shortages Mr. Hofmeister suggests (a big “if” as oil supply is notoriously difficult to predict), they will translate into higher overall consumer prices. Yes, new oil sources are being discovered daily. And yes, progress is being made in developing alternative energy. But the modernization of huge populations in China, India, Russia and other less developed countries, is sure to increase world oil consumption, massively.

Inflation can be prevented and cured by raising interest rates. But our government is fixated on the false, debt-hawk belief that federal deficits cause inflation. So the political “cure” will be to reduce federal spending and/or to increase federal taxes, either of which, history shows, will devastate our economy.

In summary, the next inflation will come from energy shortages, which the debt hawk government will deal with by causing a recession.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. There is widespread belief the stimuli didn’t work. I am reminded of the man whose house was burning. His neighbor showed up with a garden hose and actually was able to reduce the flames, but only somewhat. The neighbor wanted to call the fire department, who would bring out the big hoses, but the man told him to stop, because “Obviously, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–Bank closings from 2008 through 2010

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

I saw these two graphs on a good blog by noted debt-hawk Barry Ritholtz, called The Big Picture. You can see the post at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/fdic-bank-failures-7/comment-page-1/#comment-412084

Bank Failures since June 2008

These graphs brought to mind a few of the questions I’d like to ask those who keep demonstrating for “less government”:

1. How many bank depositors have been saved by FDIC?
2. How much depositor money has been protected by FDIC?
3. Do you feel there is too much regulation of banks?
4. Would you like to deposit your money in a bank that is not insured by FDIC?

Every time you hear someone say there is too much government, ask specific questions about what he/she would like to give up. Less Social Security? Less Medicare? Less military? Fewer roads and bridges, or less maintenance thereof? Eliminate the Supreme Court? Fewer national parks? Less inspection of our food and drugs? Less research? Where exactly should the cuts be made? (And don’t let them get away with “Eliminate waste.” That’s a cop out).

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Why Medicare and Social Security are not “adequately financed”

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Soon you will read about this new report:

2010 Social Security Trustees Report, August 6, 2010:. . . the Medicare HI Trust Fund is adequately financed until 2029, and the Social Security OASI and DI Trust Funds are adequately financed until 2040 and 2018, respectively. . . significant longer term financial imbalances of the programs still need to be addressed .”

By:
Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury, and Managing Trustee
Hilda L. Solis, Secretary of Labor, and Trustee
Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Trustee
Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security, and Trustee

For Mr. Geithner et al, “adequately financed,” means tax revenues will equal or exceed spending. When, spending exceeds taxes, Medicare and Social Security will be “inadequately financed,” i.e insolvent.

To put it gently, Mr. Geithner et al do not know what they are talking about.

Visualize a scenario where there are zero federal taxes. The federal government has no income, not even any money, yet sends you a check for $10 trillion dollars. You deposit the check in your bank. Will the check bounce? No. Your bank will send the check to the Treasury, which will credit your bank and debit its own balance sheets for $10 trillion. The bank now has $10 trillion, which it credits to your account, allowing you to buy a few thousand Rolls Royces or the State of Montana, whichever you prefer.

The government can send you checks endlessly, in any amount. With each check, the government merely debits its balance sheet and credits your bank account. The government balance sheet is just a score sheet, though it misleadingly is called “debt.” Whether that score sheet reads $10 trillion or $100 trillion makes no difference to the score sheet. The only limit is the artificial “debt limit,” on which Congress votes periodically. There is no functional limit on what any balance sheet can read. The government can write a check of any size, despite zero taxes, credit your account for any amount, and enter any amount into its score sheet.

Taxes may be levied for several social reasons (cigarette and liquor taxes are examples), but supplying the government with spending money is not one of them. The government creates money by spending. It does not use tax money. Therefore, all federal debt is sustainable, endlessly.

Because Social Security and Medicare are federal agencies, the government can support them endlessly, without any FICA taxes at all, merely by mailing checks. Sadly, the wrongheaded beliefs of Mr. Geithner et al have led to the deterioration of Social Security and Medicare benefits.

At one time, the “normal retirement age for Social Security benefits was 65. Today, it is age 67 for people born after 1969. Mr. Geithner’s kind of reasoning has cost Americans two years worth of benefits. Further, these benefits are subject to income tax. Thus, you pay tax on your FICA payments and pay tax again on your benefits – a double tax. Finally, despite paying FICA taxes for years, the day you die all benefits cease. You could pay FICA for 40 years, and if you die at age 60, your estate will receive nothing – all because of the false belief that taxes pay for federal spending.

Medicare payments also are so restricted many Americans purchase supplementary insurance to cover what Medicare does not – all because of the false belief that taxes pay for federal spending.

We pay penalties for believing taxes support federal spending. We pay penalties for believing Medicare and Social Security could go bankrupt unless FICA is increased or benefits reduced. We pay penalties for believing the federal deficits are “unsustainable.” We pay penalties for the misinformation coming from our leaders. We pay penalties for believing them.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Words from 2005

An alternative to popular faith

Sometimes the things you say and the things you predict come back to haunt you. And sometimes they don’t.

Here is what I told a group of economists and economics students on June 5, 2005, at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. Five years is a long time. You be the judge and let me know what you think:

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell SPEECH
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity