Big data, uncertainty, prediction, and approximations

A few thoughts on uncertainty:

Nothing is certain. We live in a universe of approximations.

There is, in physics “the Heisenberg uncertainty principle,” which describes certain limits of what we can know.

We simultaneously cannot know both the position (in space) of a subatomic particle and its momentum (speed times mass). The more accurately we measure one, the less accurately we can know the other.

This counter-intuitive fact has nothing to do with the act of measurement (aka “the observer effect”) somehow changing the result. It has to do with what we absolutely never can know, despite out best, most careful efforts.

At any moment in time, each particle has both a position and a momentum. But we cannot know both.

Nature has decided some knowledge will be hidden from us, today, tomorrow and forever.

If you find this hard to believe, perhaps a slightly more familiar situation will be instructive: We simultaneously cannot know the diameter and the circumference of a circle.

We can measure the diameter of a circle. We can measure the circumference of a circle. But no matter how hard we try, we cannot measure both for the same circle.

We can measure the diameter as precisely as we wish. Let’s call it exactly “1” (1 inch, 1 foot, 1 mile, 1 light year).

No matter how precisely we create that circle, we never can know the diameter, which is based “1” multiplied by the infinite sequence known as π. Being an infinite sequence, π cannot be measured precisely.

In mathematics, there is a workaround, or rather a convenience, that says an infinite sequence can be expressed as the rounding of the last terms. For instance, 1.9999999 . . . can be treated as being the “same” as 2, because the difference would be infinitely small..

Pi is an infinitely long sequence. You can see a million digits of Pi here.

The first few digits are 3.14159 . . . , which sometimes are rounded to 3.14 or to 3.1416 if greater precision is desired.

True, the word “pi” represents a number, just as the word “one” and the numeral “1” each represent a number, but there is no way to measure both the circumference of a circle and the diameter, by the same number system.

If, for instance, one uses pi to measure a circle’s diameter, no fraction of pi will measure the same circle’s circumference.

Every circle has both a specific circumference and a specific diameter but you never can know both.

The uncertainty principle of physics and the uncertainty of pi in geometry are distant cousins. Physics at its core is mathematics, and mathematics at its core is geometry.

Because of the uncertainty found in geometry, mathematics, and physics, they all function only as approximations. Everything we know devolves to an approximation.

(In mathematics, even simple “1+1 = 2” is equivalent to the approximation:  .99999 . . . + .99999 . . . = 1.99999 . . .)

Economics, at its core, is psychology, and the measures in psychology are even less certain that are those of geometry.

Consider inflation (or as some call it, “price inflation”). It is defined as a general increase in prices. Though we can look back and declare with some confidence that there has been inflation, we cannot say how much.

Like subatomic position and momentum, or pi, inflation is unmeasurable.

Circulating through America’s and the world’s economies are billions, perhaps trillions, of different products and services, each changing through time. Today’s overall mix of products and services is different from yesterday’s. Tomorrow, just one day later will see a different mix.

How then does one compare the pricing of yesterday’s product/service mix “A” with the pricing of today’s product/service mix “A+1”?

If “A+1” has a higher price than does “A” does this represent inflation? Or does it merely represent the fact that two different product/service mixes have two different prices?

Consider a basic example: The price inflation of milk. We can’t even measure that . Too many alternatives. Skim, 2%, or regular; gallon, quart, or pint; Pasteurized, flavored, or raw;glass bottle, paper carton or plastic; grass-fed cow from Wisconsin, grain-fed cow from Illinois or a goat from Missouri.

Only fourteen such questions will yield nearly five million alternatives. What then is the better measure of price inflation in milk?

One sometimes hears that the federal government fudges the inflation statistics to make some point — to exaggerate or to minimize the measure of inflation. And this often may be true.

But since there can be no accurate measure of inflation, the best that can be attained is an approximation. The argument then becomes, “Whose approximation is ‘better'”?

“Better” for what? Is it “better” to know the position of a subatomic particle or its momentum? Or an approximation of both?

Is it “better” to know the diameter of a circle or the circumference or some approximation of each?

Is it better to know the price inflation of milk, or of some static and selected basket of products and services, or of some evolving and selected basket of products and services?

Our approximations tell us there has been some inflation in the past 20 years, though how much, we cannot know, nor do we know how much is “best.”

We can try to impute inflation by determining the changing value of money itself.  The formula is: Value = Demand/Supply.

Sadly, we have no measure for those terms, either.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), another often-used measure, suffers the same problem. Without knowing inflation, a gross measure like GDP is all-but-meaningless. In fact, all the measures in economics are based on approximations, and when approximations are compounded by other approximations, results can vary wildly.

But it gets worse, for economics is massively complex, with all factors being related. Employment is related to GDP, which is related to education, which is related to income inequality, and on and on — trillions upon trillions of inter-relationships of approximations.

Much of science, including economics, has as its goal, prediction. Unless one can say, “If ‘A’ happens, ‘B’ will result,” of what value is economics?

And that is exactly the problem facing economics: It lacks predictability.

When someone predicts kicking a ball will send the ball into the air, that is not an impressive forecast. And when someone predicts that a triangle will resist deformation better than a square, that is expected.

But, when someone predicts a recession or inflation or a stock price increase, and that recession, inflation or stock price increase happens near the predicted time, the person is acclaimed, so rare is even somewhat accurate, prediction in economics.

Given that geometry is far more predictive than psychology (despite the effects of infinity), one might think economics would attempt to incorporate geometry into its calculations.

And indeed, it has, in the form of graphs and charts. Look in any economics text or read any economics blog, and you will frequent use of graphs and charts.

Unfortunately, the graphs and charts are constructed from the same uncertain data that makes economics prediction so difficult. Extending trend lines usually fails.

Finally, psychology is based on the brain, and the brain is an approximation device. We do not actually see an object. We translate a two-dimensional sensing of the light coming from the object, into a three-dimensional approximation, which is why illusions can be so convincing.

Approximations can make for good science, so long as we understand their limitations. Consider the Ten Steps To Prosperity (below), the plan for narrowing the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.

Step #1 is “Eliminate FICA.” That tax is highly regressive, being imposed only on salaries (not on all income and not on wealth). Its primary effect is on the low- and middle-income workers.

We believe:

  1. The Gap is too wide and has been widening, though we don’t know how wide it is or how wide it should be.
  2. One measure of the Gap is via the GINI ratio, but this ratio is based on many variables, the measure and weighting of which can be debated.
  3. Eliminating FICA would narrow the Gap, but there is no way to determine how great the narrowing would be.
  4. Because the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign, and never can run short of its own sovereign currency, it neither needs nor uses FICA tax dollars.
  5. The only negative to eliminating FICA might be inflation, though we don’t know whether that negative is real, nor how much inflation might occur, nor whether, for certain,  inflation could be contained.

We see many beliefs, unknowns, and uncertainties indicated in those points. We cannot quantify them, nor prove them.

So why do we believe them?

The human belief system is based on translating insufficient information into certainty.

Everything is approximate. Looking out the window, I am certain I see a tree. But my brain has made an approximation. It has interpreted certain light quanta, falling on my retina to approximate a tree and a window, though upon closer inspection, the whole approximation might be a shadowbox or a photo or just a play of light.

Physics, geometry, and economics can grow only as we reduce the human element, i. e. the human interpretation and intuition as solutions to uncertainty.

The purpose of human intuition is quickly to interpret a massive amount of information that otherwise cannot be factored. But machines are good with massive amounts of data. A machine could find relationships in the huge data described in the milk illustration.

Think of Google’s web crawler, then think of more advanced computers crawling the web for every mention of every product and service.

At some future point, the computers will “know” the relationships between all past sales, uses and prices of everything, and from these past relationships, be able to estimate the future.

Big data will be the solution to big uncertainty, as we creep ever closer to knowing the position and mass, the diameter and circumference, the future of the Gap and of inflation.

Closer is as good as it ever will be.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

===================================================================================

The single most important problems in economics involve the excessive income/wealth/power Gaps between the rich and the rest.

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.

Implementation of The Ten Steps To Prosperity can narrow the Gaps:

Ten Steps To Prosperity:
1. ELIMINATE FICA (Ten Reasons to Eliminate FICA )
Although the article lists 10 reasons to eliminate FICA, there are two fundamental reasons:
*FICA is the most regressive tax in American history, widening the Gap by punishing the low and middle-income groups, while leaving the rich untouched, and
*The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, neither needs nor uses FICA to support Social Security and Medicare.
2. FEDERALLY FUNDED MEDICARE — PARTS A, B & D, PLUS LONG TERM CARE — FOR EVERYONE (H.R. 676, Medicare for All )
This article addresses the questions:
*Does the economy benefit when the rich afford better health care than the rest of Americans?
*Aside from improved health care, what are the other economic effects of “Medicare for everyone?”
*How much would it cost taxpayers?
*Who opposes it?”
3. PROVIDE AN ANNUAL ECONOMIC BONUS TO EVERY MAN, WOMAN AND CHILD IN AMERICA, AND/OR EVERY STATE, A PER CAPITA ECONOMIC BONUS (The JG (Jobs Guarantee) vs the GI (Guaranteed Income) vs the EB) Or institute a reverse income tax.
This article is the fifth in a series about direct financial assistance to Americans:

Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Employer of Last Resort is a bad idea. Sunday, Jan 1 2012
MMT’s Job Guarantee (JG) — “Another crazy, rightwing, Austrian nutjob?” Thursday, Jan 12 2012
Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Jobs Guarantee is like the EU’s euro: A beloved solution to the wrong problem. Tuesday, May 29 2012
“You can’t fire me. I’m on JG” Saturday, Jun 2 2012

Economic growth should include the “bottom” 99.9%, not just the .1%, the only question being, how best to accomplish that. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) favors giving everyone a job. Monetary Sovereignty (MS) favors giving everyone money. The five articles describe the pros and cons of each approach.
4. FREE EDUCATION (INCLUDING POST-GRAD) FOR EVERYONEFive reasons why we should eliminate school loans
Monetarily non-sovereign State and local governments, despite their limited finances, support grades K-12. That level of education may have been sufficient for a largely agrarian economy, but not for our currently more technical economy that demands greater numbers of highly educated workers.
Because state and local funding is so limited, grades K-12 receive short shrift, especially those schools whose populations come from the lowest economic groups. And college is too costly for most families.
An educated populace benefits a nation, and benefiting the nation is the purpose of the federal government, which has the unlimited ability to pay for K-16 and beyond.
5. SALARY FOR ATTENDING SCHOOL
Even were schooling to be completely free, many young people cannot attend, because they and their families cannot afford to support non-workers. In a foundering boat, everyone needs to bail, and no one can take time off for study.
If a young person’s “job” is to learn and be productive, he/she should be paid to do that job, especially since that job is one of America’s most important.
6. ELIMINATE CORPORATE TAXES
Corporations themselves exist only as legalities. They don’t pay taxes or pay for anything else. They are dollar-transferring machines. They transfer dollars from customers to employees, suppliers, shareholders and the government (the later having no use for those dollars).
Any tax on corporations reduces the amount going to employees, suppliers and shareholders, which diminishes the economy. Ultimately, all corporate taxes come around and reappear as deductions from your personal income.
7. INCREASE THE STANDARD INCOME TAX DEDUCTION, ANNUALLY. (Refer to this.) Federal taxes punish taxpayers and harm the economy. The federal government has no need for those punishing and harmful tax dollars. There are several ways to reduce taxes, and we should evaluate and choose the most progressive approaches.
Cutting FICA and corporate taxes would be a good early step, as both dramatically affect the 99%. Annual increases in the standard income tax deduction, and a reverse income tax also would provide benefits from the bottom up. Both would narrow the Gap.
8. TAX THE VERY RICH (THE “.1%) MORE, WITH HIGHER PROGRESSIVE TAX RATES ON ALL FORMS OF INCOME. (TROPHIC CASCADE)
There was a time when I argued against increasing anyone’s federal taxes. After all, the federal government has no need for tax dollars, and all taxes reduce Gross Domestic Product, thereby negatively affecting the entire economy, including the 99.9%.
But I have come to realize that narrowing the Gap requires trimming the top. It simply would not be possible to provide the 99.9% with enough benefits to narrow the Gap in any meaningful way. Bill Gates reportedly owns $70 billion. To get to that level, he must have been earning $10 billion a year. Pick any acceptable Gap (1000 to 1?), and the lowest paid American would have to receive $10 million a year. Unreasonable.
9. FEDERAL OWNERSHIP OF ALL BANKS (Click The end of private banking and How should America decide “who-gets-money”?)
Banks have created all the dollars that exist. Even dollars created at the direction of the federal government, actually come into being when banks increase the numbers in checking accounts. This gives the banks enormous financial power, and as we all know, power corrupts — especially when multiplied by a profit motive.
Although the federal government also is powerful and corrupted, it does not suffer from a profit motive, the world’s most corrupting influence.
10. INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING ON THE MYRIAD INITIATIVES THAT BENEFIT AMERICA’S 99.9% (Federal agencies)Browse the agencies. See how many agencies benefit the lower- and middle-income/wealth/ power groups, by adding dollars to the economy and/or by actions more beneficial to the 99.9% than to the .1%.
Save this reference as your primer to current economics. Sadly, much of the material is not being taught in American schools, which is all the more reason for you to use it.

The Ten Steps will grow the economy, and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and you.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The solution to joblessness

This site is devoted to “Monetary Sovereignty (MS),” a sister to “Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

Both explain that:

  1. Federal taxes do not fund federal spending
  2. The federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars
  3. Neither the federal debt nor federal deficits are burdens on the government, future taxpayers or on the economy.
  4. And a great many other facts about federal finances.

However, we disagree dramatically on one important issue: What to do.

Isn’t it interesting that two groups can agree on all the underlying facts, yet come to radically different conclusions about what to do with those facts?

Last I heard, MMT economists still believe in something called “JG” (Jobs Guarantee), wherein the government will provide a job to anyone who wants a job. In several previous posts,  we have described why this not only is a bad idea, but a disastrously bad, economically naive idea.

You can see the details of the argument by clicking the above link.

Meanwhile, I just came across a very nice synopsis you may find interesting:

From Your Quora Digest

There are almost 6 million job openings in the US. Why are Trump supporters not getting these jobs instead of complaining there are no jobs available?

Because you’re not going to convince a guy whose family spent three generations on a manufacturing line in Detroit that he should uproot his family and move to Austin, sign up for community college classes on how to program Java, a take a job at half the pay and benefits he used to get.

He’s an American, too. He worked hard his whole life to achieve the American Dream, just like everybody said he would, and then “they” pulled the plug on him.

He doesn’t know who that ubiquitous “they” is. But Donald Trump does. And Trump says only he can fix it.

So they grab on, because they want to believe in something, in someone, who says he’s got the answers. Sadly, he doesn’t, and their hopes are going to be dashed once again.

By Robert Dixon

And there, in one short paragraph beginning with the word “Because,” Mr. Dixon shows you one of the fundamental problems with JG.

Unknowingly, JG parallels Donald Trump in recommending virtually the same, unrealistic solution to joblessness. They had it first, he came in later, and both are wrong.

Joblessness is not the problem; it is the symptom of the real problem: The wide Gap between the rich and the rest. Narrow the Gap, and unintentional joblessness will all but disappear — and the jobs will be better.

It is naive to address a symptom without treating the basic problem.  And that treatment is The Ten Steps to Prosperity (see below).

I respect MMT, because it tells the realities of federal finances and fights against the “Big Lie” (that federal taxes fund federal spending).

Now, if only I could convince them to get off the JG horse, and promote the 10 Steps.

If only.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

=======================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================

 

The single most important problems in economics involve the excessive income/wealth/power Gaps between the rich and the rest.

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.

Implementation of The Ten Steps To Prosperity can narrow the Gaps:

Ten Steps To Prosperity:
1. ELIMINATE FICA (Ten Reasons to Eliminate FICA )
Although the article lists 10 reasons to eliminate FICA, there are two fundamental reasons:
*FICA is the most regressive tax in American history, widening the Gap by punishing the low and middle-income groups, while leaving the rich untouched, and
*The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, neither needs nor uses FICA to support Social Security and Medicare.
2. FEDERALLY FUNDED MEDICARE — PARTS A, B & D, PLUS LONG TERM CARE — FOR EVERYONE (H.R. 676, Medicare for All )
This article addresses the questions:
*Does the economy benefit when the rich afford better health care than the rest of Americans?
*Aside from improved health care, what are the other economic effects of “Medicare for everyone?”
*How much would it cost taxpayers?
*Who opposes it?”
3. PROVIDE AN ANNUAL ECONOMIC BONUS TO EVERY MAN, WOMAN AND CHILD IN AMERICA, AND/OR EVERY STATE, A PER CAPITA ECONOMIC BONUS (The JG (Jobs Guarantee) vs the GI (Guaranteed Income) vs the EB) Or institute a reverse income tax.
This article is the fifth in a series about direct financial assistance to Americans:

Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Employer of Last Resort is a bad idea. Sunday, Jan 1 2012
MMT’s Job Guarantee (JG) — “Another crazy, rightwing, Austrian nutjob?” Thursday, Jan 12 2012
Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Jobs Guarantee is like the EU’s euro: A beloved solution to the wrong problem. Tuesday, May 29 2012
“You can’t fire me. I’m on JG” Saturday, Jun 2 2012

Economic growth should include the “bottom” 99.9%, not just the .1%, the only question being, how best to accomplish that. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) favors giving everyone a job. Monetary Sovereignty (MS) favors giving everyone money. The five articles describe the pros and cons of each approach.
4. FREE EDUCATION (INCLUDING POST-GRAD) FOR EVERYONEFive reasons why we should eliminate school loans
Monetarily non-sovereign State and local governments, despite their limited finances, support grades K-12. That level of education may have been sufficient for a largely agrarian economy, but not for our currently more technical economy that demands greater numbers of highly educated workers.
Because state and local funding is so limited, grades K-12 receive short shrift, especially those schools whose populations come from the lowest economic groups. And college is too costly for most families.
An educated populace benefits a nation, and benefiting the nation is the purpose of the federal government, which has the unlimited ability to pay for K-16 and beyond.
5. SALARY FOR ATTENDING SCHOOL
Even were schooling to be completely free, many young people cannot attend, because they and their families cannot afford to support non-workers. In a foundering boat, everyone needs to bail, and no one can take time off for study.
If a young person’s “job” is to learn and be productive, he/she should be paid to do that job, especially since that job is one of America’s most important.
6. ELIMINATE CORPORATE TAXES
Corporations themselves exist only as legalities. They don’t pay taxes or pay for anything else. They are dollar-transferring machines. They transfer dollars from customers to employees, suppliers, shareholders and the government (the later having no use for those dollars).
Any tax on corporations reduces the amount going to employees, suppliers and shareholders, which diminishes the economy. Ultimately, all corporate taxes come around and reappear as deductions from your personal income.
7. INCREASE THE STANDARD INCOME TAX DEDUCTION, ANNUALLY. (Refer to this.) Federal taxes punish taxpayers and harm the economy. The federal government has no need for those punishing and harmful tax dollars. There are several ways to reduce taxes, and we should evaluate and choose the most progressive approaches.
Cutting FICA and corporate taxes would be a good early step, as both dramatically affect the 99%. Annual increases in the standard income tax deduction, and a reverse income tax also would provide benefits from the bottom up. Both would narrow the Gap.
8. TAX THE VERY RICH (THE “.1%) MORE, WITH HIGHER PROGRESSIVE TAX RATES ON ALL FORMS OF INCOME. (TROPHIC CASCADE)
There was a time when I argued against increasing anyone’s federal taxes. After all, the federal government has no need for tax dollars, and all taxes reduce Gross Domestic Product, thereby negatively affecting the entire economy, including the 99.9%.
But I have come to realize that narrowing the Gap requires trimming the top. It simply would not be possible to provide the 99.9% with enough benefits to narrow the Gap in any meaningful way. Bill Gates reportedly owns $70 billion. To get to that level, he must have been earning $10 billion a year. Pick any acceptable Gap (1000 to 1?), and the lowest paid American would have to receive $10 million a year. Unreasonable.
9. FEDERAL OWNERSHIP OF ALL BANKS (Click The end of private banking and How should America decide “who-gets-money”?)
Banks have created all the dollars that exist. Even dollars created at the direction of the federal government, actually come into being when banks increase the numbers in checking accounts. This gives the banks enormous financial power, and as we all know, power corrupts — especially when multiplied by a profit motive.
Although the federal government also is powerful and corrupted, it does not suffer from a profit motive, the world’s most corrupting influence.
10. INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING ON THE MYRIAD INITIATIVES THAT BENEFIT AMERICA’S 99.9% (Federal agencies)Browse the agencies. See how many agencies benefit the lower- and middle-income/wealth/ power groups, by adding dollars to the economy and/or by actions more beneficial to the 99.9% than to the .1%.

Save this reference as your primer to current economics. Sadly, much of the material is not being taught in American schools, which is all the more reason for you to use it.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

 

Selling the Big Lie: Nice going, Chicago Tribune

Those few who understand how U.S. federal financing really works, know:

  1. About 240 years ago, the U.S. government created laws out of thin air. Some of those laws created the U.S. dollar out of thin air, and gave those dollars an arbitrary value. The dollar exists only because of those dollar-enabling laws.
  2. The U.S. government has the unlimited ability to create laws, to create dollars, and to give those dollars any value it wishes.
  3. Thus, the U.S. government never will run short of dollars, and has total control over inflation.
  4. The U.S. government, unlike state and local governments, businesses, and you and me, does not need income. It simply creates the dollars it uses for paying bilIs. It has no need of, nor use for, taxes or borrowing.
  5. Even if all tax collections fell to $0 and all so-called borrowing fell to $0, the U.S. government could continue spending, forever.
  6. The Big Lie, most simply stated is, “Federal taxes fund federal spending.”

Those are the absolute facts of federal financing, and are what differentiate U.S. government financing from your personal finances.

Now compare these facts with the October 2, 2016 editorial by the Chicago Tribune titled, “A principled option for U.S. president: Endorsing Gary Johnson, Libertarian,” excerpts from which appear, below:

Clinton’s vision of ever-expanding government is in such denial of our national debt crisis as to be fanciful.

There is no “national debt crisis,” if by “crisis” the Tribune means the U.S. government somehow would be unable to pay its debts.  (Those who speak of a “debt crisis” never explain what they really mean.)

The so-called “debt crisis” is part of the Big Lie.

Rather than run as a practical-minded Democrat as in 2008, this year she lurched left, pandering to match the Free Stuff agenda of then-rival Bernie Sanders. Her presidency would extend the political schism that has divided America for some 24 years. Today’s Hillary Clinton renounces freer trade, spending discipline, light regulation and private sector growth to generate jobs and tax revenues.

This truly astounding paragraph is wrong in so many ways, it will require more than a paragraph to correct:

First, the “Free Stuff,” hated by the rich, involves better Social Security, better Medicare, more available and better education, less hunger and homelessness, and more financial support for middle- and lower-income families. Oh, horrors! Who would want that?

The “political schism” is the wide Gap between the rich and the rest. The rich want the Gap. It is what makes them rich. Without the Gap, no one would be rich (We all would be the same) and the wider the Gap, the richer they are.  The Tribune asks to cut the programs that narrow that Gap.

“Spending discipline” is right-wing code for “cut Social Security, Medicare, education, etc.”

“Light regulation” means allow the crooked bankers, the crooked pharmaceutical and food companies and all the other crooked businesses to do whatever they please. The “Great Recession,” from which we still have not recovered, was not caused by heavy regulation.

“Private sector growth,” in Tribune-speak, means financial growth for the rich at the expense of the rest.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculates that Clinton’s plan would increase spending by $1.65 trillion over a decade, mostly for college education, paid family leave, infrastructure and health-related expenditures.

The word “nonpartisan” is used any time someone wishes to justify nonsense. To call the CRFB “nonpartisan” is like calling FOX News liberal. The CRFB is a radical right organization run by, and for the benefit of, white men.

And look at all those awful things Clinton wishes to support: College education, family leave, infrastructure and health-related expenditures — the “free stuff” the Tribune and the rich hate.

Spending just on debt interest would rise by $50 billion. Personal and business taxation would rise by $1.5 trillion. Sort through all the details and her plan would raise the national debt by $200 billion.

The $50 billion spending on debt interest would add a $50 billion stimulus to the economy. The $200 billion increase in so-called “national debt” would add a $200 billion stimulus to the economy, while reducing poverty, improving America’s health, education, housing, infrastructure, research & development, and growing the economy.

Most important, the federal spending would narrow the Gap between the rich and the rest.

The Tribune is correct about one thing, however: Federal tax increases not only are bad, but they are unnecessary. The U.S. government does not need the income. Clinton has bought into the Big Lie that federal taxes fund federal spending.

With that demand for a principled president paramount, we turn to . . . Libertarians Gary Johnson of New Mexico and running mate William Weld of Massachusetts.

(U)nless the United States tames a national debt that’s rapidly approaching $20 trillion-with-a-T, Americans face ever tighter constrictions on what this country can afford, at home or overseas.

Clinton and Trump are too cowardly even to whisper about entitlement reforms that each of them knows are imperative. Johnson? He wants to raise the retirement age and apply a means test on benefits to the wealthiest.

The national “debt” does NOT restrict — not even by one penny — what this country can afford. The Tribune persists in restating the Big Lie, over and over. The federal government cannot run short of its own sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar.  Never has. Never will.

“Entitlement reforms” is another right wing code for cutting your Social Security, cutting your Medicare, cutting any aids to education, etc., and somehow, in some unknown way, this is supposed to grow the economy???

Tellingly, though the Tribune devotes an entire half page to its endorsement, it devotes only one small sentence to what Johnson actually will do — raise your retirement age.

So, I’ll cure this omission, courtesy of a September 30, 2016 article by columnist, Eric Zorn, who also is published in the Tribune. Unlike the Tribune editors, Zorn is not a mouthpiece for the rich.

Here are some excerpts:

What Gary Johnson really stands for, by Eric Zorn

He supports the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.

That is, let the rich bribe as much as the want.

He opposes nearly all forms of gun control.

Because every boob in the street should have a gun. It will make you safer.

He advocates repealing the Affordable Care Act and the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit. His belief is that deregulated competition among insurance companies, hospitals and other health providers will work its salutary magic for those who are now or will be left uninsured.

You don’t need those programs, so long as you trust the private insurance companies to treat you fairly. Insurance companies are known for fair treatment, aren’t they?

He favors privatizing K-12 education through voucher programs, privatizing prisons and partially privatizing the Veterans Administration.

The rich love privatization. It allows them to rake in the big bucks, while cutting back on services. Chicago tried it big time. It destroyed the city’s finances. And be sure to read about the horrors of privatized jails.

He backs turning Medicare and Medicaid into state-administered programs even though he allowed in an interview with the Los Angeles Times this year that some states would likely be “horrible failures.”

Not just “some” states — all states. When states run short of money — which they all do — they cut anything that benefits the poor and middle.

He’s proposed increasing the Social Security retirement age to as high as 72, subjecting benefits to means testing and at least partially privatizing the program.

Work ’til you drop.

He opposes cap-and-trade measures to reduce carbon emissions and believes that if we allow “the market to function unimpeded, consumers, innovators and personal choices will do more to bring about environmental protection and restoration than will government regulations.”

Uh, excuse me, but what will motivate business to install expensive, profit-reducing, carbon reductions? Ah yes, the magic of an umipeded market.

He favors abolishing the minimum wage.

Slavery worked pretty well, didn’t it? If you can’t survive on your salary, work two jobs.  Or three. Or put your little children to work.

He is against “net neutrality.”

Because, the more money you have, the better Internet service you should receive, right?

He exhibits an indecisive weary indifference to climate change: “Is man contributing to that change? Probably so. But the critical question is whether the politicians’ efforts to regulate, tax and manipulate the private sector are cost-effective — or effective at all.”

Hey, why try? Those polar bears are going to die, anyway.

Johnson has said he wants to get rid of all federal corporate, income, inheritance and capital gains taxes and replace the lost revenue with a 28 percent federal consumption tax — think of it as a sales tax on steroids that you’d pay on top of state and local taxes. This radical shift would, like most Republican tax plans, almost certainly be a boon to the rich and place added burdens on low- and middle-income earners.

There are two, gigantically regressive taxes in America: FICA and sales taxes. The rich and Johnson favor both. And nevermind that the federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars. Taxing the poor and middle is a good way to widen the Gap.

(He) has pledged that his first major act as President will be to submit to Congress a truly balanced budget. Real reductions to bring spending in line with revenues, without tax increases.”

Even ardent deficit hawks know that the sudden and dramatic cuts necessary to balance the federal budget in one year with no tax increases would slash many valued programs, create significant new unemployment and perhaps plunge us into another recession.

Actually, the rich survive recessions quite well. You, on the other hand, may need to sell your home, forego college for your kids and eat less.

In short, Johnson is an ultra-right-wing Republican, who would have you believe federal spending is unnecessary, regressive taxes like sales taxes and FICA should be increased, and state governments (which unlike the federal government, can run out of money) should shoulder the nation’s financial burdens.

The regular Republican party would widen the Gap between the rich and the rest. Johnson would turn that Gap into the Grand Canyon.

Finally, a vote for Johnson either will be wasted, or it will be a vote for Trump.  It probably will be wasted, because he has no chance of winning.

But it will be a vote for Trump, if it prevents Clinton from reaching 270 electoral votes, in which case, the Republican Congress, by law, will select the President and the Vice-President.

Bottom line: The Tribune promulgates the Big Lie on behalf of the rich, and wants you either to waste your vote on someone who would widen the Gap, or simply to vote for Trump.

Nice going, Chicago Tribune.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

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The single most important problems in economics involve the excessive income/wealth/power Gaps between the rich and the rest.

Wide Gaps negatively affect poverty, health and longevity, education, housing, law and crime, war, leadership, ownership, bigotry, supply and demand, taxation, GDP, international relations, scientific advancement, the environment, human motivation and well-being, and virtually every other issue in economics.

Implementation of The Ten Steps To Prosperity can narrow the Gaps:

Ten Steps To Prosperity:
1. ELIMINATE FICA (Ten Reasons to Eliminate FICA )
Although the article lists 10 reasons to eliminate FICA, there are two fundamental reasons:
*FICA is the most regressive tax in American history, widening the Gap by punishing the low and middle-income groups, while leaving the rich untouched, and
*The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, neither needs nor uses FICA to support Social Security and Medicare.
2. FEDERALLY FUNDED MEDICARE — PARTS A, B & D, PLUS LONG TERM CARE — FOR EVERYONE (H.R. 676, Medicare for All )
This article addresses the questions:
*Does the economy benefit when the rich afford better health care than the rest of Americans?
*Aside from improved health care, what are the other economic effects of “Medicare for everyone?”
*How much would it cost taxpayers?
*Who opposes it?”
3. PROVIDE AN ANNUAL ECONOMIC BONUS TO EVERY MAN, WOMAN AND CHILD IN AMERICA, AND/OR EVERY STATE, A PER CAPITA ECONOMIC BONUS (The JG (Jobs Guarantee) vs the GI (Guaranteed Income) vs the EB) Or institute a reverse income tax.
This article is the fifth in a series about direct financial assistance to Americans:

Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Employer of Last Resort is a bad idea. Sunday, Jan 1 2012
MMT’s Job Guarantee (JG) — “Another crazy, rightwing, Austrian nutjob?” Thursday, Jan 12 2012
Why Modern Monetary Theory’s Jobs Guarantee is like the EU’s euro: A beloved solution to the wrong problem. Tuesday, May 29 2012
“You can’t fire me. I’m on JG” Saturday, Jun 2 2012

Economic growth should include the “bottom” 99.9%, not just the .1%, the only question being, how best to accomplish that. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) favors giving everyone a job. Monetary Sovereignty (MS) favors giving everyone money. The five articles describe the pros and cons of each approach.
4. FREE EDUCATION (INCLUDING POST-GRAD) FOR EVERYONEFive reasons why we should eliminate school loans
Monetarily non-sovereign State and local governments, despite their limited finances, support grades K-12. That level of education may have been sufficient for a largely agrarian economy, but not for our currently more technical economy that demands greater numbers of highly educated workers.
Because state and local funding is so limited, grades K-12 receive short shrift, especially those schools whose populations come from the lowest economic groups. And college is too costly for most families.
An educated populace benefits a nation, and benefiting the nation is the purpose of the federal government, which has the unlimited ability to pay for K-16 and beyond.
5. SALARY FOR ATTENDING SCHOOL
Even were schooling to be completely free, many young people cannot attend, because they and their families cannot afford to support non-workers. In a foundering boat, everyone needs to bail, and no one can take time off for study.
If a young person’s “job” is to learn and be productive, he/she should be paid to do that job, especially since that job is one of America’s most important.
6. ELIMINATE CORPORATE TAXES
Corporations themselves exist only as legalities. They don’t pay taxes or pay for anything else. They are dollar-transferring machines. They transfer dollars from customers to employees, suppliers, shareholders and the government (the later having no use for those dollars).
Any tax on corporations reduces the amount going to employees, suppliers and shareholders, which diminishes the economy. Ultimately, all corporate taxes come around and reappear as deductions from your personal income.
7. INCREASE THE STANDARD INCOME TAX DEDUCTION, ANNUALLY. (Refer to this.) Federal taxes punish taxpayers and harm the economy. The federal government has no need for those punishing and harmful tax dollars. There are several ways to reduce taxes, and we should evaluate and choose the most progressive approaches.
Cutting FICA and corporate taxes would be a good early step, as both dramatically affect the 99%. Annual increases in the standard income tax deduction, and a reverse income tax also would provide benefits from the bottom up. Both would narrow the Gap.
8. TAX THE VERY RICH (THE “.1%) MORE, WITH HIGHER PROGRESSIVE TAX RATES ON ALL FORMS OF INCOME. (TROPHIC CASCADE)
There was a time when I argued against increasing anyone’s federal taxes. After all, the federal government has no need for tax dollars, and all taxes reduce Gross Domestic Product, thereby negatively affecting the entire economy, including the 99.9%.
But I have come to realize that narrowing the Gap requires trimming the top. It simply would not be possible to provide the 99.9% with enough benefits to narrow the Gap in any meaningful way. Bill Gates reportedly owns $70 billion. To get to that level, he must have been earning $10 billion a year. Pick any acceptable Gap (1000 to 1?), and the lowest paid American would have to receive $10 million a year. Unreasonable.
9. FEDERAL OWNERSHIP OF ALL BANKS (Click The end of private banking and How should America decide “who-gets-money”?)
Banks have created all the dollars that exist. Even dollars created at the direction of the federal government, actually come into being when banks increase the numbers in checking accounts. This gives the banks enormous financial power, and as we all know, power corrupts — especially when multiplied by a profit motive.
Although the federal government also is powerful and corrupted, it does not suffer from a profit motive, the world’s most corrupting influence.
10. INCREASE FEDERAL SPENDING ON THE MYRIAD INITIATIVES THAT BENEFIT AMERICA’S 99.9% (Federal agencies)Browse the agencies. See how many agencies benefit the lower- and middle-income/wealth/ power groups, by adding dollars to the economy and/or by actions more beneficial to the 99.9% than to the .1%.
Save this reference as your primer to current economics. Sadly, much of the material is not being taught in American schools, which is all the more reason for you to use it.

The Ten Steps will grow the economy, and narrow the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and you.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Have you left no sense of decency?

We Americans view ourselves as special.

Yes, we have our problems, many problems in fact, but fundamentally we have tried to be the bright shining star, the world’s leader, not only in wealth and power, but in morality.

Our Constitution is a moral document. It begins, “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

We are people together, as a “Union.” We believe in Justice, the general Welfare, and Liberty, not just for ourselves but for everyone and for posterity.

We came to this land to replace totalitarianism with democracy, not because democracy is easier or more powerful — it isn’t — but because democracy is fairer and more moral.

Sometimes, we have drifted from those lofty ideals. We have had slavery and still have bigotry. We have participated in selfish wars.

The Gap between the rich and the rest is so wide as clearly to be immoral.

Yet somewhere beneath our human failings, there is in America, a sense of right and wrong, a sense of decency.

We have vast power for wrong, yet we lean to do right. As a people, we are charitable. We sympathize and empathize with the underdog. We despise the cruel and arrogant dictators of the world.

We respect, even open our arms to, the people of other cultures.  The single most important statue in America is not a typical memorial to a conqueror on horseback, sword upraised.

No, it is our Statue of Liberty that proclaims: “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me.”

There, in those few words, is America the beautiful — not because of our “spacious skies and amber waves of grain,” but rather for our good people, our righteous people, our moral people.

It is an endless climb, that climb to decency, a climb punctuated by steps forward and sliding back, but it is a climb that brings us pride in who we are and what we have accomplished, and our goal of who we yet can be — a climb from dark times into the light symbolized by the torch Miss Liberty holds high.

It is a perilous climb, filled with danger, falls from which we may never recover. Hatred, selfishness, and cruelty sing siren songs, to deflect us from our goal of fundamental human decency.

Today, a leader has arisen, an indecent leader who has turned to stone the hearts of millions of his followers.

He preaches his hatred. He preaches his selfishness. He does not welcome; his arms are shut tight. He despises the poor. He despises the huddled masses. He despises the homeless. He refuses sanctuary to the tempest-tost.

He sings his message of bile across the land, and sadly, millions of otherwise good Americans have been seduced by his song.

And what in past years might have seemed outrageous and un-American,  somehow has become acceptable — the hatred, the bigotry, the insults, the closed iron doors on our borders — all seemingly have become normal, now.

Repetition does that.

Thus has begun again the descent of our once-proud, our once-great nation, as it is led toward hell.

It has happened before — McCarthyism, Japanese internment, slavery, Jewish quotas — but just when we had slid to the completely intolerable to American values, some event awakened us, we realized where we had fallen, and we repudiated the evil that dragged us down.

Here is one such event:

Joseph Welch said to Senator McCarthy, “Until this moment, Senator, I think I never really gauged your cruelty, or your recklessness. . .

“Little did I dream you could be so reckless and so cruel as to do an injury to that lad. It is, I regret to say, equally true that I fear he shall always bear a scar needlessly inflicted by you. If it were in my power to forgive you for your reckless cruelty, I would do so.

“I like to think I’m a gentle man, but your forgiveness will have to come from someone other than me . . .

“Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

Those are the words that ended the evil known as McCarthyism.

And, those are the words I must ask Donald Trump.  “Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

The bigotry,  the lies, the hatred you spew already had defined you. But sometimes one comparatively small incident can bring all the evil together into one, clear picture.

After torturing a beautiful young woman with contempt and repeated, ongoing insults about her appearance, now years later, you broadcast for millions to read, these awful lines:

“Wow, Crooked Hillary was duped and used by my worst Miss U. Hillary floated her as an ‘angel’ without checking her past, which is terrible!”

“Did Crooked Hillary help disgusting (check out sex tape and past) Alicia M become a US citizen so she could use her in the debate?”

I have a wife. I have daughters. I love them with all my heart, just as I am sure, there are people who love that beautiful young woman.

I cannot begin to imagine any man, let alone a man who wishes to lead and represent America, talking to my wife and daughters that way — and not just talking, but intentionally bullying and humiliating them in front of the entire world.

What kind of man are you, Mr. Trump? Are you what you wish America to be? Is this your vision of how to “make America great,again?” Is this the path you have set out for us?

In politics, one says many things and one forgives and forgets many things, but this neither can be forgiven nor forgotten.

You have revealed yourself to us. You disgrace us. And all we now can ask is, “At long last, Mr. Trump, have you left no sense of decency?”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell