What you should know about our economy that others don’t know.

On September 7, 2009, we published a summary of our economy, facts that seem unknown to the public and ostensibly to economists, the media, and politicians (though I believe many of them fake their ignorance.

Much has changed in the past 13 years, but not the realities, and it is these realities that seem to mystify our thought leaders.

Today’s post will give you those realities, so you will understand why our economy continually lurches from recession to recession, with Congress, the President, and the Federal Reserve flailing about in apparent helplessness against the winds of fate.

Our leaders are not helpless. On the contrary, they have all the tools necessary to exert absolute control over our economy, even during the most stressful times. Even in the face of war, COVID, global warming, and population changes, etc., recessions, depressions, and inflations could be prevented, and prosperity could be implemented, but for the prevailing lack of knowledge or effort.

Economists wish to portray economics as a mathematically-based science, similar to physics, where precise predictions often are possible. But because economics is intertwined with psychology, at best a pseudo-science, predictions veer from inaccurate to just plain WAG (Wild Ass Guesses).

Knowing that exact replication of economics studies is impossible, and even approximations can be wrong, economists tend not to stray far from earlier WAGs and to quote liberally from the past.

Unfortunately, the past, at least the more distant past, omitted Monetary Sovereignty. It is the recognition that the creator of a currency never can run short of that currency, does not need or use income to pay for things, and has absolute control over all aspects of that currency.

The finances of a Monetarily Sovereign entity are nothing like those of a monetarily non-sovereign entity. Confusingly, similar words are used to describe both.

Words like “debt,” “deficit,” “trust fund,” “taxes,” “financial burden,” “prudent,” “money supply,” “borrow,” and even “pay” have different meanings and implications when applied to Monetarily Sovereign entities vs. monetarily non-sovereign entities. These differences are not widely understood or taught in schools.

What follows is a summary-in-brief of those differences. 

But if it ever becomes widely understood, the intelligent application of Monetary Sovereignty will significantly reduce the incidence of inflations, recessions, depressions, poverty, hunger, homelessness, street crime, illiteracy, sickness, and the collection of taxes.

Here are some facts of which you may not be aware:

  1. The U.S. government arbitrarily created the U.S. dollar from thin air. There were no U.S. dollars in the thousands of centuries before the 1780s.
  2. Then suddenly, the U.S. government created U.S. dollars from thin air — as many as it wanted to — by creating new laws, also from thin air, which it has the infinite ability to do.
  3. Just as laws have no physical existence, so do U.S. dollars have no physical reality. Dollars are nothing more than numbers on balance sheets controlled by the government. Those printed dollar bills are only titles to dollars. Just as a house title is not a house and a car title is not a car, a dollar bill is not a dollar.
  4.  Every form of money is a form of debt. Bank savings accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, C.D.s, travelers’ checks, and corporate bonds all are owed by someone or something. Even the dollar bill represents a debt of the federal government, which is why it has the words  “federal reserve note” printed on it. “Bill” and “note” are words referencing debt.
  5. Just as a car title is not a car, and a house title is not a house, a dollar bill is not a dollar. It is a bearer title to a dollar, which is no more physical than a number.
  6. Because dollars have no physical existence but are only numbers, the federal government has the power to create infinite dollars merely by pressing computer keys. It makes as many dollars as it wishes.
  7. (Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press [or, today, its electronic equivalent], that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.“)
  8. The federal government gives its dollars any value it wishes. Through the years, the federal government often arbitrarily changed the value of dollars.
  9. Today, the federal government retains the power to create laws that develop infinite dollars and to give those dollars whatever value it wishes.
  10. This ability is called “Monetary Sovereignty.” The federal government is sovereign over the U.S. dollar.
  11. While the federal government is Monetarily Sovereign, state/local governments, businesses, and people are monetarily non-sovereign.
  12. Monetarily non-sovereign entities do not have the infinite ability to create U.S. dollars or to give those dollars arbitrary values. Monetarily non-sovereign entities can run short of dollars.
  13. While the U.S. government and the governments of the U.K., Mexico, Canada, Australia, Sweden, and others are Monetarily Sovereign, the governments of France, Italy, Germany, Portugal, and others are monetarily non-sovereign. They use the euro. They cannot control their money supplies, nor do they have the ability to fight inflation, recession, or depression.
  14. The European Union (E.U.) is sovereign over the euro. The E.U. is run by the rich. It can fight inflation, recession, and depression but instead forces the poorest people of the euro nations to shoulder that burden.
  15. The U.S. federal government cannot unintentionally run short of dollars, even if it collects no taxes.
  16. Federal taxes and American federal taxpayers do not fund federal government spending. The federal government could provide unlimited benefits (Medicare for All, Social Security for All, College for All, etc.) without taxes. The term, “spending taxpayers’ money,” when referring to the federal government is incorrect. The government does not spend taxpayers’ money.
  17. The purpose of federal taxes is not to provide the federal government with dollars but rather to:
    A. Control the economy by taxing what it wishes to discourage and giving tax breaks to what it wishes to encourage
    B. To assure demand for the dollar by requiring dollars to be used for tax payments, and
    C. to discourage the public from asking for benefits. This is a function of Gap Psychology — the desire of the rich to distance themselves from the middle- and lower-income/wealth/power public.
  18. Money is the way modern economies are measured. By definition, a large economy has a larger money supply than does a small economy. Therefore, a growing economy requires an increasing supply of money. QED.
    The graph shows the essentially parallel paths of GDP (red) vs. a broad measure of the U.S. money supply, Domestic Non-Financial Debt (blue)
  19. Medicare and Social Security are not funded by so-called “trust funds,” which are not real trust funds but only balance sheet lines.
    WHAT ARE FEDERAL TRUST FUNDS?
    September 20, 2016, Peter G. Peterson Foundation
         A federal trust fund is an accounting mechanism used by the federal government to track earmarked receipts (money designated for a specific purpose or program) and corresponding expenditures.
         The largest and best-known funds finance Social Security, Medicare, highways and mass transit, and pensions for government employees.
         Federal trust funds bear little resemblance to their private-sector counterparts.
         In private-sector trust funds, receipts are deposited, and assets are held and invested by trustees on behalf of the stated beneficiaries.
         In federal trust funds, the federal government does not set aside the receipts or invest them in private assets.
         Instead, the receipts are recorded as accounting credits in the trust funds, and the receipts themselves are comingled with other receipts that Treasury collects and spends.
  20. The government has total control over these balance sheet numbers, belying the false claim that the “trust funds” soon will run short of dollars. The federal government has absolute control over those balance sheet numbers. It can add to them or reduce them at will.
  21. Your Social Security check comes from a mythical trust fund that contains no money and receives no money. Social Security (and Medicare) benefits are paid ad hoc by the U.S. government, not from a trust fund, and are not dependent on FICA taxes. Which can and (opinion) should be eliminated.
  22. The federal government creates new dollars ad hoc by paying bills. No receipts by the Treasury are spent. They all are destroyed.
  23. Debt is not a burden on the federal government. It is not, as some have been calling it for over eighty years, “a ticking time bomb.”The infinite ability to create dollars means the government can service any debt denominated in dollars by creating dollars, ad hoc.
  24. The federal Debt/GDP ratio often is quoted with alarm. A high ratio wrongly is thought to indicate the federal government’s difficulty paying its debts. In fact, the Debt/GDP ratio is meaningless, having zero predictive power. Looking at a list of countries by their Debt/GDP ratio will not tell you which countries are better or worse able to pay their bills.
  25. It is impossible to evaluate any aspect of a nation’s economy by looking at its Debt/GDP ratio. The ratio says nothing about the health of the U.S. economy or about the federal government’s ability to pay its bills. See Debt to GDP ratio by country.
  26. The federal government creates dollars by paying creditors.
    A. To pay a creditor, the federal government sends instructions (not dollars) to the creditor’s Bank, instructing the Bank to increase the balance in the creditor’s checking account.
    B. The instant the Bank obeys those instructions, new dollars are created from thin air and added to the M1 money supply measure.
    C. The instructions then are cleared through the Federal Reserve and the government agency issuing the instructions.
  27. What is commonly called “debt” is the total of dollar deposits into privately owned Treasury Security accounts by the purchase of T-bills, T-notes, and/or T-bonds.
    A. To make a deposit into a T-security account, one opens a T-security account and uses U.S. dollars to invest in a T-bill, T-note, or T-bond.
    B. The government never touches those dollars other than to make interest deposits.
    C. The government does not use those dollars; it creates new dollars, ad hoc, to pay its bills.
    D. Upon maturity, the government returns the account balance to the account owner. Visualize how a bank treats deposits in safe deposit boxes.
    E. Because the dollars already exist in the T-security accounts, returning them is not a financial burden on the U.S. government or any taxpayer.
  28. Not needing an input of dollars, the government provides T-bills, etc., only to provide a safe place to store unused dollars and to help it control interest rates. Both purposes help the government stabilize the dollar. 
  29. Even if large holders of T-securities (China is a notable example) were to stop buying T-securities (the term “lending” erroneously is used), the federal government could continue spending as before. If the Federal Reserve felt a need to issue T-securities, they could buy them themselves. There is no financial need for the U.S. to sell T-securities to China.
  30. Some worry that one day the U.S. dollar will cease to be the world’s reserve currency. That should not be a concern. A reserve currency is nothing more than a currency banks hold in reserve to facilitate international commerce. Many currencies function as reserve currencies, including: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Chinese yuan, and others.
  31. A federal “deficit” is the difference between dollars the government creates and sends to the economy (aka “the private sector”) vs. dollars the private sector sends to the government.
  32. When federal deficit and debt growth are reduced we experience recessions and depressions.
    1804-1812: Federal Debt reduced by 48%. Depression began 1807.
    1817-1821: Federal Debt reduced by 29%. Depression began 1819.
    1823-1836: Federal Debt reduced by 99%. Depression began 1837.
    1852-1857: Federal Debt reduced by 59%. Depression began 1857.
    1867-1873: Federal Debt reduced by 27%. Depression began 1873.
    1880-1893: Federal Debt reduced by 57%. Depression began 1893.
    1920-1930: Federal Debt reduced by 36%. Depression began 1929.
    1997-2001: Federal Debt  reduced by 15%. The recession began 2001.
  33. Federal deficits enrich the economy and are necessary to grow the economy. They add dollars to the economy, and they help prevent and cure recessions.
  34. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of dollars spent in the economy, which is why adding dollars to the economy stimulates GDP growth.
  35. Balanced budgets, though appropriate for personal finances, cause recessions and depressions when attempted by the federal government. To grow, the private sector needs to receive more dollars from the federal government than it pays to the federal government (aka a federal deficit).
  36. The federal government receives dollars from the economy through taxes, fines, and other payments.
  37. All dollars received by the federal government are destroyed upon receipt.
    a. Taxes are paid from the private sector (aka “the economy) checking accounts (Those dollars are part of the “M1” money supply) and are sent to the U.S. Treasury.
    b. When dollars reach the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure. Because the government has the infinite ability to create dollars, there can be no measure of how many dollars the government has. It has infinite dollars. (Infinite dollars + Tax Dollars = Infinite dollars. No change.)
    c. Because tax dollars do not increase the federal government’s money supply, they are effectively destroyed.
    d. Dollars sent to monetarily non-sovereign state/local governments, businesses, and people are not destroyed. They are deposited into private sector banks and remain part of the M1 money supply.
  38. Monetarily non-sovereign entities (state/local governments, businesses, etc.) create dollars by borrowing and lending.
    a. When a bank lends dollars, it does not lend depositors’ funds. It adds dollars to the borrower’s checking account (M1) and balances its books by counting the borrower’s note as dollars.
    b. Upon consummating the loan, the Bank has dollars (the note), and the borrower also has the dollars it borrowed. Thus a loan creates dollars.
    c. As the loan is paid down, dollars held by the borrower are sent to the lender, and the loan balance loses value.
  39. By contrast, the federal government does not borrow its own sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar. It pays all its bills by creating new dollars.
  40. The federal government collects taxes not to fund spending but to:
    a. Control the economy by taxing what it wishes to discourage and giving tax breaks to what it wishes to encourage
    b. Create demand for the dollar by requiring taxes to be paid in dollars
    c. Create the false impression that taxes are necessary to fund spending so that the public acquiesces to benefit limits.
  41. Import duties are taxes levied on imported goods. These taxes are paid by the purchaser, not by the seller. For example, a duty on imports of Chinese goods is paid by the American consumer, not by the Chinese exporter.
  42. Inflation is a general increase in prices.
  43. Prices increase because supply is insufficient to satisfy demand (scarcity).
  44. Historically, dollar creation has not caused an increase in demand sufficient to cause inflation. Federal deficit spending does not cause inflation.
    There is no relationship between increases in federal deficit spending (red) and inflation (blue)
    A. All inflations have been caused by the insufficient supply of critical goods and services, most often oil and food.
    B. Today’s inflation is caused by scarcities of oil, food, lumber, computer chips, shipping (supply chain), labor, and other COVID-related factors.
    Oil shortages cause most inflations. Curing oil shortages cures most inflations.
    C. These shortages are not caused by money creation and cannot be cured by restricting money creation plans such as interest rate increases. Those plans do not remedy the scarcities that are responsible for inflation.
    D. Curing inflation requires curing shortages, not recessing the economy.
    Federal deficit spending does not cause inflation.

    E. Shortages often begin with a disease, weather, war, or government mismanagement. COVID caused many shortages and was the original impetus for today’s inflation.
    F. The famous Zimbabwe inflation began when the government took farmland from experienced farmers and gave it to people who didn’t know how to farm. The resultant food shortage, not Zimbabwe’s money creation, caused hyperinflation.
  45. The federal government can cure shortages by additional deficit spending to obtain scarce goods and services or encourage their creation. 
  46. Eliminating the FICA tax would fight inflation by lowering labor costs and thus the cost of most goods.
  47. There is no economic benefit to privately owned banks. The federal government should own all the banks. Because the federal government doesn’t have a profit motive, there would be none of those risky securities the big banks have dreamed up. These garbage contracts led to the Big Recession of 2008, and because the banks were not punished, no lessons were learned. The same problems are happening today.
  48. More efficient and generous immigration laws would fight inflation by reducing the labor shortage.
  49. Low interest rates are not stimulative.
    Low interest rates (purple) do not correspond with high economic growth (green).
  50. Increasing interest rates can make the dollar more valuable and have some stimulative effect because low rates force the government to pay more interest dollars into the economy. But low rates do not cure shortages. They actually can exacerbate shortages and intensify inflation.
  51. Interest rate increases make private sector money creation (borrowing) more difficult, which can recess the economy.
  52. On balance, high and low interest rates have both stimulative and recessive elements. But they do not cure inflations, and it is the inflations that lead to recessions or “stagflation” (the combination of a stagnant economy and inflation). 
  53. A symptom of this bifurcation is the stock market’s adverse reaction to good economic news. Any good news (low unemployment, high GDP growth, etc.) impels the Fed to raise interest rates, which the public believes will hurt business and depress securities.
  54. Recessions have no agreed-upon definition but often are defined as a decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters. GDP is a measure of spending. Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending + Net Exports = GDP.
  55. Depressions often are defined as recessions that last at least two years.
  56. The prevention and cure for recessions and depressions is federal deficit spending, which adds dollars to the economy (aka the private sector) and increases GDP. 
  57. Reductions in federal deficit spending or surpluses lead to recessions and depressions, providing the private sector with insufficient growth dollars.
  58. The Fed has no cure for stagflation, though Congress and the President do.
    A. The “stagnation” part of stagflation is cured by federal stimulus spending, as is done to cure every recession.
    B. The “inflation” part of stagflation is cured by federal spending to obtain the goods and services whose scarcity is causing inflation.
  59. Though state and local governments are monetarily non-sovereign concerning the U.S. dollar, nothing stops any entity –you, me or anyone–from creating their own sovereign currency and being Monetarily Sovereign concerning that currency.
    A. The currency would face the problem of demand, i.e., the acceptance of the money in payment, which in part would depend on the “full faith and credit” of the issuer.
    B. Many forms of money exist in America. One example is manufacturer coupons. They are issued by businesses, have a stated value, and are accepted by retailers.
    C. Some aspects of the U.S. dollar’s “full faith and credit” are:
         i. The government will accept only U.S. currency in payment of debts to the government
         ii. It unfailingly will pay all its dollar debts with U.S. dollars and will not default
         iii. It will force all domestic creditors to accept U.S. dollars, if offered, to satisfy any debt.
         iv. It will not require domestic creditors to accept any other money
         v. It will protect the value of the dollar.
         vi. It will maintain a market for U.S. currency
         vii. It will continue to use U.S. currency and will not change to another currency.
         viii. All forms of U.S. currency will be reciprocal; five $1 bills always will equal one $5 bill, etc.
  60. An example of Monetary Sovereignty and full faith & credit can be found in the board game, “Monopoly®.” By rule, the Bank in that game never can run out of Monopoly dollars, and it does not rely on income to pay its debts. Thus, the Monopoly bank is Monetarily Sovereign.
  61. Being Monetarily Sovereign, the Bank has infinite Monopoly dollars, and neither its deficits nor its debt is a burden on the Bank or on the players (corresponding to the real-world economy).
  62. Gold and silver are not, and never have been money. At most, they have been value standards to which the value of money is compared.
  63. Gold or silver never “backed” the dollar. The prices of gold and silver vary wildly, but through the years, the federal government arbitrarily and often has changed the value of dollars vs. gold and silver (which destroys the “backed” claim.) The only thing backing the U.S. dollar is the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
  64. Lack of money is the mother of street crime. Impoverished neighborhoods endure far more street crime than do wealthy neighborhoods.
  65. The prevention and cure for street crime is not more police or more severe punishment. The prevention and cure for street crime is to reduce poverty.
  66. The federal government has the power to reduce poverty and thus to reduce street crime) by paying for health care insurance (Medicare for All), living expenses (Social Security for All), education (college for all), food (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — SNAP for all), life insurance for all, and housing (rent assistance for all).
  67. “Rich” and “poor” are relative terms. A person having a million dollars would be poor if everyone else had ten million. A person with a thousand dollars would be rich if everyone else had ten dollars. The income/wealth/power difference between those who have more and those who have less is the Gap.
  68. The wider the Gap, the richer are the rich.
  69. To become more prosperous, the rich (who run our world) continually attempt to widen the Gap. They can widen the Gap by gaining more for themselves or by forcing the poorer to have less.
  70. To force the poorer to have less, the rich feed them the disinformation that the federal government cannot afford to pay for benefits, that federal spending causes inflation, or that benefits require taxes. None are true.
    A. The federal government can afford anything (It’s Monetarily Sovereign);
    B. federal spending never has caused inflation (shortages of oil and other goods and services cause inflation);
    C. federal taxes don’t pay for anything (the federal government creates dollars, ad hoc, to pay for all its spending). Federal taxes are destroyed upon receipt.
  71. The rich also spread the disinformation that if the federal government provides benefits, the poor will refuse to work. To debunk this myth, one only needs to look at the rich, or even at the upper middle classes, who continue to work despite receiving massive tax benefits.
  72. Human wants are unlimited. Even the rich wish to be richer, more powerful, more respected, more envied, more admired, and to have more of everything. Most people want a better life for themselves and their children.
  73. Thus, even upon receiving free medical care, housing, food, clothing, education, etc., people will continue to work for more than what is considered “basic” at any moment in time.
  74. To help spread their disinformation, the rich bribe:
    A. Politicians (via political donations and promises of future employment),
    B. Economists (via university donations and jobs in think tanks), and
    C. The media (via advertising dollars and media ownership).
  75. The rich bribe politicians to pass tax laws and other laws favorable to the wealthy and unfavorable to the rest of us, to widen the income/wealth/power Gap.
  76. Congress’s approval of benefits reveals an ugly part of the human psyche: Jealousy. President Biden’s approval of student loan debt reduction elicited cries of “Unfair” from those who already had paid off much or all of their student loan debt.
  77. But all benefits are felt to be “unfair” by those who didn’t receive the benefit before it was begun. This demonstrates the intimate relationship between economics and psychology. 
  78. The European Union (E.U.) is Monetarily Sovereign over the euro and is run by the rich, forcing the euro nations to struggle for lack of euros. This helps widen the Gap between the European rich and the rest.
  79. The United States is a not-very-democratic republic. While we, the people, do elect our leaders, the election system is highly skewed toward rural power. The Senators’ elections and the national Presidential elections give excessive power to rural voters vs. urban voters. This originally was done by our founders to encourage rural states to join the union.
  80. Within the Senate, voting rules give a few Senators, sometimes only one Senator, extreme power. Even the supposedly population-based House of Representatives accomplishes this dubious, undemocratic achievement via gerrymandering,the manipulation of an electoral constituency’s boundaries so as to favor one party or class. 
  81. The Supreme Court, the final arbiter of all laws, proudly pays no attention to what the public wants. Instead, they are nine (currently) unelected people who make national decisions based on their personal and religious philosophies and party affiliation. 
  82. As such, the unelected Supreme Court’s desired impartial functions have been superseded by the Justices’ personal biases. A case could be made for eliminating the Supreme Court and allowing the elected Executive and Legislative branches of government, which more closely reflect the desires of the public, to fill the role. An alternative would be to impose term limits on SCOTUS justices.

The above points are merely summaries of broader truths about the U.S. economy. Most have been discussed at greater length in this blog’s preceding posts.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Insurance for all . . . and more.

A government’s sole purpose is to improve and protect people’s lives. No rational person would take dollars from the economy and give them to a federal government that has the infinite ability to create dollars.

Our Monetarily Sovereign government’s greatest asset is its infinite ability to create and spend its sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar. The federal government cannot unintentionally run short of dollars.

 

It can pay any bill and fund any enterprise based on dollars and do it without the need to collect a penny in taxes. In fact, federal taxes (unlike state/local taxes) are destroyed upon receipt.

The U.S. federal government has infinite dollars.

Though the federal government may not always be good at running things, it is outstanding at paying for things.

Consider retirement. Social Security pays for retirement life by issuing money. Though the government collects the FICA tax, this tax doesn’t fund Social Security. Like all other federal taxes, FICA dollars are destroyed.

But Social Security, unlike private retirement plans, does not rely on stock market or bond market investments or any other form of income, and it does not need to make a profit or even to break even.

Pay no attention to the Henny Penny claims of the Social Security fund’s insolvency. Social Security can become insolvent only if the federal government wants it to. Benefits could double or triple or begin at age 0 rather than in the 60s, and SS always will be able to pay benefits.

Consider Medicare. This program, too, is funded by federal money creation. Despite what you have been told, Medicare is not financed by taxes but by federal money creation.

Medicare does not do medical treatments; Medicare pays for medical treatments.

Social Security and Medicare replace insurance companies as retirement and healthcare insurance providers. Having no need for income or profits and having the unlimited ability to pay for anything, the federal government is a much better source of insurance dollars than any private sector insurance company.

We previously have recommended instituting Medicare for All and Social Security for All. In that same vein, we recommend Life Insurance for all.

The federal government already provides life insurance for its civilian employees. Worldwide Assurance for Employees of Public Agencies (WAEPA) is one version:

As a non-profit formed For Feds, By Feds, we understand what it takes to help provide peace of mind. More than 46,000 Feds and their families choose WAEPA’s portable life insurance coverage to help protect the future of their families.

While we actively provide more than $10 billion in coverage to Feds, we’ve refunded over $100 million in premiums since 1996. That’s one way how WAEPA serves Feds who serve our country.

Short-Term Disability Insurance — WAEPA’s newest product provides paycheck protection for eligible illnesses or injuries.
 
You can receive up to $6,500 in coverage a month for up to six months to replace lost income if you’re out of work due to recovery.
 
Underwritten by New York Life Insurance Company, 51 Madison Ave., New York, NY 10010

Another is Federal Employees’ Group Life Insurance (FEGLI):

The Federal Employees’ Group Life Insurance (FEGLI) Program is a life insurance program for Federal and Postal employees and annuitants, authorized by law (Chapter 87 of Title 5, United States Code).

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) administers the Program and sets the premiums.

FEGLI does not build up cash value. You cannot take a loan out against your FEGLI insurance. OPM has a contract with the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (MetLife) to provide this life insurance.

MetLife has an administrative office called the Office of Federal Employees’ Group Life Insurance (OFEGLI). OFEGLI is the contractor that adjudicates claims under the FEGLI Program.

While Medicare and Social Security replace private insurance companies, WAEPA and FEGLI pay private insurance companies to administer their programs.

Either approach has advantages, but all have two glaring weaknesses.

  1. The federal government unnecessarily extracts premiums from the private sector.
  2. None of the programs offers comprehensive coverage, as though the government needed profits or even breakevens. It doesn’t.

The WAEPA website includes this chart:

It shows neither plan is comprehensive nor complete, which is not surprising. Two other federal programs, Medicare and Social Security,  are not comprehensive or complete.

But why? Given that the federal government has infinite financial resources, why should any plan it supports offer less than the optimum? 

Why does Medicare have a 20% deductible, along with limited coverages and not covering drugs or dental care, etc., without an extra cost? Why are Social Security benefits so meager? In WAEPA and FEGLI, why is one spouse’s life insurance death benefit less than the other’s?

The federal government repeatedly acts as though it can run short of dollars. It works like a monetarily non-sovereign entity. And why does the federal government extract a tax to fund something when it has the unlimited ability to support anything?

BOTTOM LINE

  1. The federal government has infinite dollars. It can pay any debt denominated in dollars. No such obligation is a burden on the government or on taxpayers.
  2. A healthy economy needs a continual input of dollars. Federal deficit spending prevents and cures recessions.
  3. A government’s sole purpose is to improve and protect people’s lives.
  4. No rational person would take dollars from the economy and give them to a federal government that has the infinite ability to create dollars.

Therefore, the federal government should fully fund the following comprehensive, no deductible, tax-free programs for every man, woman, and child who wants to participate:]

  • Healthcare insurance (aka Medicare for all)
  • Retirement insurance (Social Security for all)
  • Life insurance
  • College
  • Salary for attending college
  • Food support [aka Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)]
  • Rental (living quarters) support

Objections:

  1. Federal spending causes inflation: In previous posts (here, here, here, and elsewhere, we have demonstrated that federal deficit spending does not cause inflation. Shortages cause inflation. Inflations are cured by curing the shortages, which can be accomplished with the aid of federal deficit spending.
  2.  If given these benefits, people would refuse to work. We suggest this is not true, as demonstrated by the fact that people at all wealth strata continue to work.

    The total of human wants never is satisfied.

    If the government pays for an apartment’s rent, the family wants a bigger apartment, a car, a yacht, or a vacation home. People always want more for themselves, their children, and charity.

The single most valuable asset owned by the U.S. federal government is its Monetary Sovereignty — its unlimited ability to create and control the value of the U.S. dollar.

Unfortunately, the government and many information sources refuse to acknowledge this great asset, so we slog along with poverty, hunger, homelessness, illness, lack of education, recessions, and depressions.

The federal government has the power to mitigate or prevent them all with the application of its Monetary Sovereignty. 

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Good news, if true. CBO: Deficits are falling now, are set to soar later

Assuming the following headline is correct, it’s short-term bad news for the economy, but great long-term news:

“CBO: Deficits are falling now, are set to soar later” Courtenay Brown. Neil Irwin, Axios

The federal government’s budget deficit is expected to shrink this year before skyrocketing in the years ahead, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Wednesday.

Why is it short-term bad news but great long-term news? Because this is:

    1. Federal deficit spending goes into the economy as an economic growth stimulus.
    2. The federal government has infinite dollars; it never can run short of dollars.
    3. The economy does not have infinite dollars. To grow, it needs a growing input of dollars from the federal government.
    4. Federal spending is funded not by federal taxes but by *federal money creation. Federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury.
    5. Federal spending does not cause inflation; shortages of critical goods and services cause inflation. Inflations can be cured by additional federal spending to obtain and distribute scarce goods and services.

*Here is how the federal government creates dollars:

  • To pay a bill, the federal government sends instructions (not dollars) to the creditor’s bank, instructing the bank to increase the balance in the creditor’s checking account (“Pay to the order of”)
  • When the bank does as instructed, new dollars are created and added to the M1 money supply.

  • This transaction is then cleared by the Federal Reserve

Similarly, dollars are destroyed when you pay taxes:

  • To pay taxes, you take dollars from your checking account. Those dollars were part of the M1 money supply.
  • When your dollars reach the Treasury, they disappear from the M1 money supply. They cease to exist in any money supply measure.

Because the Treasury has access to infinite dollars, there can be no money supply measure for Treasury dollars. Your tax dollars are destroyed.

The federal government collects tax dollars, not to fund spending, but to:

  1. Control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and giving tax breaks for what it wishes to encourage.
  2. To create demand for dollars, which must be used for tax payments. This helps stabilize the dollar.
  3. To create the impression that federal taxes are necessary to fund federal spending. This discourages the public from asking for federal benefits. 

Restricting federal benefit spending on benefits helps widen the Gap between the rich (who run America) and the rest of us. Widening the Gap makes the rich richer.

Why it matters: America’s reprieve from climbing deficits is only temporary as coronavirus-related government spending wanes and tax revenues increase.

The use of the word “reprieve” is misleading. Climbing deficits are essential for economic growth.

By the numbers: The CBO projects the budget deficit will shrink to $1 trillion this year, down from $2.8 trillion in 2021.

Shrinking budget deficits reduce the amount of money coming into the economy and thereby lead to recessions.

Recessions (vertical gray bars) result from reduced federal deficit growth and are cured by increased federal deficit growth.

It’s expected to rise to more than $2 trillion in 2032, reaching 6.1% of GDP, up from a projected 4.2% this year.

The deficit as a percentage of GDP is a meaningless number. It has no predictive significance.

GDP (blue) rose during periods of falling Debt/GDP and during periods of rising Debt/GDP. The ratio, Debt/GDP, has no predictive value.

Federal debt held by the public is estimated to dip from 100% of GDP at the end of this year to 96% in 2023, reflecting rapid inflation that is causing GDP to expand more rapidly. It’s expected to reach 110% of GDP — the highest ever recorded — by the end of the decade.

A meaningless fact. Whether an economy has a high or a low Debt/GDP ratio tells nothing about the health of that economy. For example:

Top Countries with the Lowest Debt-to-GDP Ratios (%)

    1. Brunei — 3.2%
    2. Afghanistan — 7.8%
    3. Kuwait — 11.5%
    4. Congo (Dem. Rep.) — 15.2%
    5. Eswatini — 15.5%
    6. Burundi — 15.9%
    7. Palestine — 16.4%
    8. Russia — 17.8%
    9. Botswana — 18.2%
    10. Estonia — 18.2%

Top Countries with the Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratios (%)

    1. Venezuela — 350%
    2. Japan — 266%
    3. Sudan — 259%
    4. Greece — 206%
    5. Lebanon — 172%
    6. Cabo Verde — 157%
    7. Italy — 156%
    8. Libya — 155%
    9. Portugal — 134%
    10. Singapore — 131%
    11. Bahrain — 128%
    12. United States — 128%

The Debt/GDP ratios tell you nothing about the economic health of the nations. The data come from an article by WorldPopulationReview.com, which falsely states:

“Nations with a low debt-to-GDP ratio are more likely to be able to repay their debts with relative ease. Nations whose economies struggle to produce income or which have an oversized debt tend to have a high debt-to-GDP ratio.

This is a perfect example of belief overcoming obvious facts.

The U.S. is Monetarily Sovereign. A Monetarily Sovereign nation has the infinite ability to pay debts denominated in that nation’s own sovereign currency. Such countries have the unlimited ability to create sovereign currency. They never can run short.

By contrast, a monetarily non-sovereign — for instance, a euro nation like Greece, Italy, or Portugal — can have difficulty paying its debts.

The belief that a high Debt/GDP ratio mitigates debt repayment ability All the concerns about the U.S. federal deficit or debt being too high are based on ignorance about government financing.

Clearly, the WorldPopulationReview.com authors of the above article know little-to-nothing about Monetary Sovereignty. 

Details: The CBO is now expecting higher interest rates over the coming years than it did in the last forecast, as the Federal Reserve acts to try to contain inflation. Higher interest rates would strain the nation’s fiscal position further.

America’s fiscal position is clear. It always can pay any debt denominated in dollars. Even if the U.S. federal government didn’t collect a penny in taxes, it could pay off any financial obligation.

Further, the so-called federal “debt” is not the federal government’s debt. It is the total of deposits into privately-owned Treasury Security accounts. 

To purchase a T-security (T-bill, T-note, T-bond), you deposit dollars into your T-security account. The government never touches those dollars. Periodically the government adds to the balance, but it never uses the dollars for anything.

The dollars remain in your account until maturity when they are returned to you. This functions similarly to a bank safe deposit box, the contents of which are not a debt of the bank.

Last July, for example, the CBO projected that the 10-year Treasury yield would average 2% in 2023; now that projection is 2.9%.

In the CBO projections, interest costs alone will pass $1 trillion in 2030.

Translation: Federal interest payments will add 1 trillion growth dollars to the economy by 2030. The federal government, being Monetarily Sovereign, easily can make these payments without collecting taxes.

As this post was being written, another relevant article appeared. It is an excellent example of the economic ignorance that mischaracterizes the federal “debt.”

Biden’s Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Plan Now Estimated To Cost $400 Billion
According to a new report for the Congressional Budget Office, student loan debt forgiveness will likely completely wipe out gains made by the Inflation Reduction Act—and then some.
Emma Camp | 9.27.2022

The “gains” are deficit reductions that the author wrongly believes will benefit the economy and mitigate inflation. They will not, though they will mitigate economic growth and probably cause stagflation.

U.S. depressions tend to come on the heels of federal surpluses.

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807.
1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.
1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

The sweeping student loan forgiveness plan will wipe all the budget savings created by the Inflation Reduction Act—and then some.

Translation: “The sweeping student loan forgiveness plan will add federal dollars to the economy, thereby stimulating economic growth.”

In a letter published on Monday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, estimated that Biden’s student loan debt forgiveness plan will increase the cost of student loans by $400 billion.

Translation: ” . . . will decrease students’ loan cost by $400 billion. It will stimulate economic growth by keeping more money in the economy and by encouraging more young people to attend and finish college..”

That’s more than the White House originally projected, and it means that the fiscally imprudent debt relief effort will end up swamping the modest budgetary savings achieved by last month’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act by more than $150 billion.

Translation: ” . . . it means that the fiscally prudent debt relief effort will end up overcoming the economy’s budgetary losses caused by last month’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act by more than $150 billion.

. . . the plan is likely to massively increase the national deficit by over $150 billion.

Translation: “. . . the plan is likely to massively increase the economy’s money supply by over $150 billion.”

Student loan forgiveness stands to be a massively expensive project—one that not only erases recent gains in spending reduction but manages to make the problem significantly worse than the status quo.

Translation: “Student loan forgiveness stands to be a massively beneficial project—one that not only erases recent economic losses in income reduction but manages to make the economy significantly better than the status quo.”

The so-called “problem” is the increased federal deficit, which is not a problem at all. It is necessary for a growing economy.

Only one thing could make “the problem worse than the status quo”: Running a federal surplus, which invariably leads to recessions or depressions.

SUMMARY

Federal finances differ from personal, business, and state/local government finances.

Those who bemoan a growing federal deficit and debt do not understand that a Monetarily Sovereign entity can pay any size debt instantly. It does so by creating its own sovereign currency.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of the economy, is a measure of spending. A growing economy requires a growing supply of money. By deficit spending, the federal government creates new dollars and adds them to the economy. 

Thus, by increasing the money supply, federal deficits help boost GDP. That is why falling federal deficit growth results in recessions, which are cured by increased deficit growth.

For the above reason, the oft-quoted federal Debt/GDP ratio does not indicate anything about the economic health of a Monetarily Sovereign nation. 

Further, the misnamed federal “debt” is not the federal government’s debt. It is the total of privately owned deposits into Treasury Security accounts.

The next time you read or hear negative comments about the federal deficit or debt, know this: The author of those comments doesn’t understand how U.S. federal finances work — or doesn’t want you to understand.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty
Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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Fed Chair Powell pushes the economy over the cliff. Next stop: Stagflation

WASHINGTON (AP) — Intensifying its fight against high inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate Wednesday by a substantial three-quarters of a point for a third straight time and signaled more large rate hikes to come — an aggressive pace that will heighten the risk of an eventual recession.

Barring the kind of miracle that allows Jerome Powell to come to his senses, we very soon will be in a stagflation — a combination of stagnation and inflation — and Jerome Powell will not know what to do about it. The past interest rate increases have done nothing to halt or even moderate inflation. So, Chairman Powell does the only “sensible” thing. He keeps doing what repeatedly has failed, praying that somehow, in some way, magic will happen. He is not “heightening the risk of recession.” He intentionally is causing a recession. He says so himself but uses oblique language to describe it.
Trust me. I’m doing this to cure your acrophobia.

The officials also forecast that they will further raise their benchmark rate to roughly 4.4% by year’s end, a full point higher than they had envisioned as recently as June.

And they expect to raise the rate again next year, to about 4.6%. That would be the highest level since 2007.

By raising borrowing rates, the Fed makes it costlier to take out a mortgage or an auto or business loan.

Get it? To fight higher prices, the Fed will raise the prices of mortgages, autos, and business operations — and just about every other thing you wish to buy. And some people believe this nonsense.

Consumers and businesses then presumably borrow and spend less, cooling the economy and slowing inflation.

“Cooling the economy” is the Fed’s way of saying, “causing a recession.” Here is the definition of a recession: “a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.” Sounds like “cooling,” doesn’t it? Sadly, the Fed doesn’t have the courage or morals to tell the truth, which is that they want to cause a recession as a way to end inflation. So they say they are going to “cool” the economy” What makes them feel the economy needs “cooling”? One measure of the economy’s “heat” is unemployment. A “hot” economy should have low unemployment. According to the Fed’s metric, the Fed should raise interest rates when unemployment goes down. Similarly, when unemployment rises, you might expect the Fed to cut rates We should see the unemployment rate and the interest rate move in opposite directions. Is that what we see?
When unemployment (red) goes up, and the economy could use some stimulus, the Fed tends to raise interest rates (green), which is anti-stimulus. By the Fed’s own philosophy, interest rates should rise when unemployment goes down, But we see the opposite.
In short, the Fed is consistent. It consistently does exactly the opposite of what it claims the economy needs. The reason: The Fed focuses on the false premise that inflation is caused by low interest rates and is cured by raising interest rates. And as far as the economy needing “cooling,” what exactly does it mean? What does it mean for an economy to be too hot? Here’s an interesting graph: It shows one of the prime measures of economic growth, the annual change in real per capita gross domestic product. If anything should measure the “heat” of an economy, this is it. A year ago, in early 2021, one might have said the economy is pretty “hot.” No longer. The economy now seems to be growing at a normal rate. So why does it need “cooling”? Notice what happens before we have a recession. The annual change drops, which is exactly what the Fed wants to happen now. I’ve been at this for twenty-five years, and I still don’t know what it means for an economy to be too hot. What I do know, however, is what causes inflation: Shortages of key goods and services. Today, we have those shortages, not because demand is too great, and not because interest rates are too low, and not because the federal deficits are too high. We have shortages because the confluence of COVID, the Russian war, and reduced oil pumping caused supply to constrict.  

Falling gas prices have slightly lowered headline inflation, which was a still-painful 8.3% in August compared with a year earlier.

Think of it. The Fed has raised the benchmark interest rate almost 4 points — a massive change — and inflation didn’t budge, but falling gas prices moved the needle. That tells you something about the ineffectiveness of interest rate changes. Here’s another interesting graph. It compares inflation to oil prices: The parallels are stunning. Inflation follows oil prices because oil affects the price of every other product. The price of oil is determined by supply and demand. Increase the supply, and inflation will go down. The same is true regarding demand. Decrease the demand for oil, and inflation will fall. But short of causing a recession, how does one decrease the demand for oil? The only answer is something we are just beginning to do: Find substitutes for oil.  Most oil is used for energy, so businesses must expand production of solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal, and tidal energy sources — and this will require increased government spending and lower interest rates.

Speaking at a news conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that before Fed officials would consider halting their rate hikes, they would “want to be very confident that inflation is moving back down” to their 2% target.

He noted that the strength of the job market is fueling pay gains that are helping drive up inflation.

Powell, as an agent for the very rich, tells us that those nasty pay gains for the 99% are causing inflation. If only we could find a way to cut back on pay gains, all would be well.

“If we want to light the way to another period of a very strong labor market,” Powell said, “we have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there was painless way to do that. There isn’t.”

Translation: “The labor market is too strong. Unemployment is too low, and people are earning too much. So, I’m going to create a strong labor market by cutting economic growth. This will increase unemployment and cut salaries, which will be painful (to everyone but the rich).” This is the logic that will help widen the Gap between the rich and the rest.

Fed officials have said they are seeking a “soft landing,” by which they would manage to slow growth enough to tame inflation but not so much as to trigger a recession.

Yet most economists are skeptical. They say they think the Fed’s steep rate hikes will lead, over time, to job cuts, rising unemployment and a full-blown recession late this year or early next year.

Job cuts, unemployment and a full-blown recession are exactly what the very rich want. Their incomes won’t be hurt. They won’t be fired. Their pay won’t be cut. And they’ll buy bonds paying higher interest. Meanwhile, the working class will suffer, the Gap will widen, and all will be well with the world.

“No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession, or if so, how significant that recession would be,” Powell said at his news conference. “That’s going to depend on how quickly we bring down inflation.”

The way to bring down inflation is to cure the shortages that are causing inflation, not by causing a recession. The federal government needs to support farming, transportation, and the manufacturing and service industries. One way: Cut business costs. Eliminate FICA and provide free health care insurance to every man, woman, and child in America. This would substantially reduce the cost of running businesses. Eliminating FICA instantly would cut the prices of all goods and services. It’s a quick first step, easily done. Simply stop collecting the tax and have the government pay for Social Security and health care insurance.

In their updated economic forecasts, the Fed’s policymakers project that economic growth will remain weak for the next few years, with rising unemployment. They expect the jobless rate to reach 4.4% by the end of 2023, up from its current level of 3.7%.

This is the cure for inflation?? Weak economic growth and rising unemployment for years??? Some might say the cure is worse than the disease. That’s the best the Fed can do?

Historically, economists say, any time unemployment has risen by a half-point over several months, a recession has always followed. Fed officials now foresee the economy expanding just 0.2% this year, sharply lower than their forecast of 1.7% growth just three months ago. And they envision sluggish growth below 2% from 2023 through 2025.

That gloomy forecast seems about right based on the reluctance to increase federal deficit spending and the plan to repeatedly increase interest rates.

Even with the steep rate hikes the Fed foresees, it still expects core inflation — which excludes the volatile food and gas categories — to be 3.1% at the end of next year, well above its 2% target.

Translation: “What we’re doing won’t help much, but it will hurt you, and most importantly, it will make you believe we’re doing something.

Powell acknowledged in a speech last month that the Fed’s moves will “bring some pain” to households and businesses.

Pain to the working class but not the rich — that’s the goal.

Inflation now appears increasingly fueled by higher wages and by consumers’ steady desire to spend and less by the supply shortages that had bedeviled the economy during the pandemic recession.

Utter nonsense. Prices can’t rise without supply shortages. But yes, reducing the cost of labor will help reduce inflation. And that can be accomplished by eliminating FICA while providing health care insurance to everyone.

Some economists are beginning to express concern that the Fed’s rapid rate hikes — the fastest since the early 1980s — will cause more economic damage than necessary to tame inflation.Mike Konczal, an economist at the Roosevelt Institute, noted that the economy is already slowing and that wage increases — a key driver of inflation — are levelling off and by some measures even declining a bit.

Part of the problem is a false belief that some economic damage is necessary to tame inflation — the false belief that the medicine must be bitter.

Even at the Fed’s accelerated pace of rate hikes, some economists — and some Fed officials — argue that they have yet to raise rates to a level that would actually restrict borrowing and spending and slow growth.

Translation: “The purpose of raising interest rates is to restrict borrowing and spending and to slow growth, but that won’t work.” Huh?

Many economists sound convinced that widespread layoffs will be necessary to slow rising prices.

Translation: “It’s all the fault of the working class. They are making too much money. We’ll have to starve them a bit to control inflation.”

Research published earlier this month under the auspices of the Brookings Institution concluded that unemployment might have to go as high as 7.5% to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

SUMMARY Interest rate increases will not reduce inflation. They will cause stagflation, courtesy of the Fed, who will blame it on the working class making too much money. The Fed will not blame the very rich for making too much money. The Fed knows who their bosses are. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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