Month: August 2010

–Quick prediction for the next two years

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Here is a quick, overly simplistic prediction about what is likely to happen in the next two years. If you disagree (or even agree), feel free to add your own predictions.

1. The Democrats, fearing the weak economy will cost them the House and Senate, urgently will try to stimulate the economy before November.

2. However, stimulating the economy requires federal spending and/or reduced taxes, both of which add to the federal debt. Republicans, not wanting the economy to recover before the November elections, will object to any increases in the federal debt, falsely claiming it’s “unsustainable” and “our children will pay for it.”

3. Every stimulus plan put forth by the Democrats will be met with the threat of a Senate filibuster, plus objections by the media, the Tea Party and all others who have been hypnotized by the debt hawks.

4. The Democrats, paralyzed with fear about the federal debt, then will talk about increasing federal taxes on the “rich,” so as to be revenue neutral. This will add to the Democrats’ stigma as the “tax and spend party.” Small business owners, the primary economic engine in America, will find themselves defined as “rich,” so will become even more reluctant to hire and invest. Worse, because revenue neutral plans do not add money to the economy, they will not prove to be stimulative.

5. The economy will not recover significantly, and may even regress. The voters and the media will blame the Obama administration for not creating more jobs, but will offer no non-debt solutions, as there are none. Voters, wanting stimulus without deficits (in other words, magic), will vent their frustration on incumbents, giving Republicans enough representation in both Houses to stifle any Democratic initiatives, but not enough representation to advance Republican initiatives. Further, since the Republicans have been vociferous about deficits, they will have left themselves no way to stimulate the economy.

6. Within two years, President Obama will blame the lack of economic growth on Republican recalcitrance, thereby setting the stage for a Democratic comeback in 2012.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Why Medicare and Social Security are not “adequately financed”

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Soon you will read about this new report:

2010 Social Security Trustees Report, August 6, 2010: “. . . the Medicare HI Trust Fund is adequately financed until 2029, and the Social Security OASI and DI Trust Funds are adequately financed until 2040 and 2018, respectively. . . significant longer term financial imbalances of the programs still need to be addressed .”

By:
Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury, and Managing Trustee
Hilda L. Solis, Secretary of Labor, and Trustee
Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Trustee
Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security, and Trustee

For Mr. Geithner et al, “adequately financed,” means tax revenues will equal or exceed spending. When, spending exceeds taxes, Medicare and Social Security will be “inadequately financed,” i.e insolvent.

To put it gently, Mr. Geithner et al do not know what they are talking about.

Visualize a scenario where there are zero federal taxes. The federal government has no income, not even any money, yet sends you a check for $10 trillion dollars. You deposit the check in your bank. Will the check bounce? No. Your bank will send the check to the Treasury, which will credit your bank and debit its own balance sheets for $10 trillion. The bank now has $10 trillion, which it credits to your account, allowing you to buy a few thousand Rolls Royces or the State of Montana, whichever you prefer.

The government can send you checks endlessly, in any amount. With each check, the government merely debits its balance sheet and credits your bank account. The government balance sheet is just a score sheet, though it misleadingly is called “debt.” Whether that score sheet reads $10 trillion or $100 trillion makes no difference to the score sheet. The only limit is the artificial “debt limit,” on which Congress votes periodically. There is no functional limit on what any balance sheet can read. The government can write a check of any size, despite zero taxes, credit your account for any amount, and enter any amount into its score sheet.

Taxes may be levied for several social reasons (cigarette and liquor taxes are examples), but supplying the government with spending money is not one of them. The government creates money by spending. It does not use tax money. Therefore, all federal debt is sustainable, endlessly.

Because Social Security and Medicare are federal agencies, the government can support them endlessly, without any FICA taxes at all, merely by mailing checks. Sadly, the wrongheaded beliefs of Mr. Geithner et al have led to the deterioration of Social Security and Medicare benefits.

At one time, the “normal retirement age for Social Security benefits was 65. Today, it is age 67 for people born after 1969. Mr. Geithner’s kind of reasoning has cost Americans two years worth of benefits. Further, these benefits are subject to income tax. Thus, you pay tax on your FICA payments and pay tax again on your benefits – a double tax. Finally, despite paying FICA taxes for years, the day you die all benefits cease. You could pay FICA for 40 years, and if you die at age 60, your estate will receive nothing – all because of the false belief that taxes pay for federal spending.

Medicare payments also are so restricted many Americans purchase supplementary insurance to cover what Medicare does not – all because of the false belief that taxes pay for federal spending.

We pay penalties for believing taxes support federal spending. We pay penalties for believing Medicare and Social Security could go bankrupt unless FICA is increased or benefits reduced. We pay penalties for believing the federal deficits are “unsustainable.” We pay penalties for the misinformation coming from our leaders. We pay penalties for believing them.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Debt madness in the media

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

The media have made America’s voters insane. Any program designed to stimulate the economy is rejected because it would “add to the debt” (which is the only way to stimulate the economy) or would “be paid for by our grandchildren” (a monstrous lie).

Thus we have the ridiculous situation in which banks are criticized for not lending enough (i.e., for giving the private sector too little debt), while the federal government is criticized for having too much debt. Think, people! Do you really believe the solution to our problems is for the private sector to take on more debt, while the federal government reduces its debts?

On the one hand we have the private borrowers, already overburdened with bad debt, and falling into bankruptcy every day. On the other hand we have the federal government, which can support a debt of any size, and which does not even use tax money to support spending, and which as a monetarily sovereign nation, cannot go bankrupt. Which do you think should take on more debt to stimulate our economy?

It is absolute madness to ask for more private deficit spending and less federal deficit spending. Yet, that is what the media, the politicians and the obsolete economists do.

In the post, Is federal money better than other money, I demonstrated that while reductions in federal debt growth immediately precede recessions, increases in private debt growth also lead to recessions. The media and the politicians, who want more private debt growth and less federal debt growth have it exactly backwards.

Rumor says the Obama administration soon will suggest Fannie and Freddie give “upside down” mortgage holders a break, paid for by the federal government. If true, you will hear a great protest that this will increase the falsely termed “unsustainable” federal debt. The protesters prefer that the private sector bear this debt, which for the private sector, truly is unsustainable.

I’m not sure when it became more “prudent” for the private sector to suffer bankruptcies, than for the federal government to create money, but I pray, for the sake of America, that the media, politicians and sleeping economists come to their senses. This backwards thinking has caused terrible misery, as backwards thinking always does.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Talking past each other

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

The proponents and opponents of same-sex marriage cannot and will not ever agree. They are talking past each other. The problem is that the issue is religious/moral for some and legal/moral for others.

Those who oppose same-sex marriage focus on what they believe to be religious/moral factors. They quote the Leviticus passage, “Do not lie with a man as one lies with a woman.” Those who support same-sex marriage focus on what they believe to be legal/moral factors. Many laws grant special privileges to married couples, not offered to unmarrieds. This is felt to be a violation of the 14th Amendment’s, “equal protection clause.”

Although the above is something of an oversimplification, it is impossible for people to agree, when they’re arguing about two different things. More examples:

Israelis and Palestinians may disagree on some facts (“Who was here first? Who fired first?), but fundamentally, the Jews really are talking about the Holocaust and Jewish survival (“Never again”) and the Palestinians really are talking about choice and Palestinian survival (“We have nowhere else to go.”) They are talking past each other.

The pro-lifers are talking about morals (“Do not murder.”) and the pro-choicers are talking about science (“An embryo is not yet a sentient human”). They are talking past each other.

Democrats feel caring for people is good for the economy. Republicans feel caring for the economy is good for people. They are talking past each other, and when people talk past each other, they don’t hear each other.

Listen to any argument, and eventually you’ll hear the words, “Yes, but.” That’s shorthand for, “I don’t want to listen to, or even think about, what you said” (That’s the “Yes” part). “I only want you to think about what I’m about to say.” (That’s the “but” part.)

There lies deep within us, the fear that if we listen too closely, our own arguments will be demolished. So we resist listening, lest we are forced to admit we are wrong, and our world will come crashing down.

Being consciously aware of this, I make a special effort to try to listen to debt hawks’ facts. Unfortunately, their favorite word seems to be “idiot, ” often followed by “stupid,” and they never get around to offering facts I can evaluate. They focus on popular wisdom and I focus on data, so we simply talk past each other, something like the creationists and the scientists.

What’s the solution? Courage. Have the courage to see your treasured beliefs proved wrong. Have the courage to evaluate the other guy’s side. Have the courage to listen, and perhaps to come to an accommodation. Any fool can close his mind and shout louder. It takes real courage and intelligence to listen, truly listen, to the other guy’s side.

Of course, that depends on the other guy presenting a side, rather than limiting himself to telling you you’re an idiot.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity