-Warren Mosler for president


An alternative to popular faith

Warren Mosler, economist, perturbed by the misunderstanding of monetary policy by the current and past administrations, is running for President in 2012. He has been speaking at the Tea Parties, explaining to taxpayers that Washington is either at best ignorant of economic policy or at worst deceptive.” By Barry Ritholtz – The Big Picture, October 7th, 2009, 11:00AM

Warren Mosler has a better understanding of the economy than almost anyone I have known. If you want to see the real facts, in plain, clear English, go to http://www.moslereconomics.com/ and click the “7 Deadly Innocent Frauds” box on the left side of the page. I promise, you will learn something important.

In 2008, Warren helped edit an article I had written earlier. The article, endorsed by a number of eminent economics professors, is as follows:

Is It Time For a FICA Holiday?

Traditional thinking has produced an economic disaster, which the same traditional thinking cannot solve. As the U.S. and world economies slip into recession, we must remember this ultimately is a bookkeeping crisis. The housing “market” was destroyed, but not the actual houses. They still exist. Nothing real has been destroyed. Instead, we are starved for money.

This problem should be easier to remedy than a food shortage, water shortage or wartime destruction, because a money shortage can be cured by the simple expedient of adding money – something the federal government is uniquely empowered to do.

We propose a FICA payroll tax “holiday,” whereby the U.S. Treasury will make our Social Security and Medicare payments for us. This will add about $10 billion per week to our take-home pay, and another $10 billion to business income, both of which urgently are needed. When we eliminate this partly double, severely regressive tax, we will give consumers the income they need to make mortgage payments, to pay bills, and to do the shopping American business craves. The FICA holiday also will provide business with money for jobs and investment.

In contrast, the “top down” approach (saving Fannie Mae, buying toxic mortgages), while necessary, does not directly address consumer/business money needs, and has had only modest effect.

Common knowledge holds that Social Security and Medicare will face bankruptcy even with FICA. So proposed fixes invariably include benefit cuts, reducing consumer incomes, or tax increases, cutting consumer and business spending power – the opposite of what our economy requires.

Many people fear federal deficit spending when it supports Social Security and Medicare, but not when it supports the military. Social Security spending for 2008 is approximately $600 billion, about equal to the defense budget. Ironically, both candidates for President believed Social Security will run out of money and the military will not. The $1 trillion in “stimulus” spending was authorized without increased taxes. Both candidates advocated tax cuts.

Even during the darkest days of the Great Depression, the federal government never ran out of money. Massive government spending, before and during World War II, helped lift us from the Depression.

In 1971 President Nixon eliminated any risk of government insolvency by ending the last vestiges of the gold standard. At the stroke of a pen, he assured that neither the government, nor any of its agencies, could run short of money. Social Security and Medicare, being two of those 400+ agencies, are immune from bankruptcy.

If Congress authorizes the Treasury to make our Social Security and Medicare payments for us, thus allowing our take-home pay to rise, the economy will begin to recover. The elimination of FICA deductions would provide consumers and business with more than a trillion additional dollars annually, exactly what a healthy economy needs.

Won’t this increase the federal deficit? Yes, but President Nixon’s signature guaranteed the government never will run short of money to service its debts. This act removed taxes as a necessary source of federal money. Together with federal spending, taxation became a mere tool to create optimal output and employment. Whatever deficit accomplishes that goal is the right size.

Doesn’t a large deficit cause higher interest rates? No, interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve. The government can set rates at any level it wishes.

Doesn’t a large federal debt create a shortage of lending funds? No, the more money the government pumps into the economy, the more lending funds are created.

Won’t our children have to pay for the increased deficit? No, the government owes the debt and easily services a debt of any size. Our children are not the debtors. (In many cases, they even are the creditors.) Because the “right” size debt will continue to grow forever as our economy grows, it never should be reduced or paid back.

Meanwhile, each year the increased debt will help keep output high and unemployment low, benefiting our children with additional income, goods and services.

Won’t increasing the deficit by eliminating FICA, cause inflation? President Carter had modest deficits and high inflation. President Reagan had the highest deficits in American history and modest inflation. Contrary to popular faith, federal debt has not caused inflations, recessions, high interest rates or any other negative economic effects. On the contrary, large deficits have been associated with economic growth.

In summary, we offer new thinking – an accounting fix to an accounting problem: Eliminate FICA and pay for Medicare and Social Security the same way we pay for Congress, the military, the Supreme Court and every other federal agency, by functionally folding these two agencies into the general fund. The economic crisis has presented us with the rare opportunity to accomplish two important goals: Permanently fix the seemingly intractable Social Security and Medicare problems, and energize our economy.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

-New thinking from the New America Foundation


An alternative to popular faith

        Here is the text of an Email I sent to Steve Coll, President and CEO of the New America Foundation (http://newamerica.net/) (Offices in Washington, DC and San Francisco, CA). According to their web site, “The New America Foundation is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy institute that invests in new thinkers and new ideas to address the next generation of challenges facing the United States.” They publish 12 “Principles” by which they live.
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Dear Steve;
        Your principle #10, “Do not perpetuate budget myths” is excellent. In that regard you might wish to reconsider certain statements on your web site:

“In reality, the availability of debt financing is far from unlimited; in fact Japan and China have already begun to slow their purchasing of U.S. debt.”
        A myth. The federal government does not need to sell U.S. debt to Japan, China or to any other country or person. The government creates debt (T-securities) out of thin air, collateralized only by full faith and credit. It just as easily could create money out of thin air, also collateralized by full faith and credit, and eliminate the debt creation and sales step. Debt creation and sales is a relic of the gold-standard days.
See: How to eliminate federal debt, deficits and interest payments

        “While deficits can spur consumption and thus improve the immediate economic situation when there is slack in the economy, they lead to slower growth in living standards over the long run.”        
A myth. Federal deficits are necessary both for short term and long term growth. A growing economy requires a growing supply of money. Where else will the money come from to grow our economy?
See: I believe

        “Moreover, high deficits increase interest payments, which crowd out important tax and spending priorities and leave the budget with far less flexibility than it would otherwise.”        
Partly true, partly a myth. High deficits can increase interest payments. However the conclusion is circular reasoning. Interest payments can “crowd out” spending priorities only if the government is precluded from running deficits. To date, despite massive deficits for the past 30 years, interest payments never have crowded out anything.

        “Lastly, deficits shift the burden of paying for today’s spending to future generations, which may cause over-consumption by present generations at the expense of consumption by future generations.”
A myth: Today’s deficits are paid by future generations only if the future generations decide to run surpluses. When any generation runs a deficit, it’s tax payments do not even cover its current expenses, let alone past expenses. Deficits do not cost taxpayers money. Only surpluses cost taxpayers money.
See: It isn’t taxpayers’ money

        I have suggestions for a 13th and 14th principle:
13. Base all suggestions on supporting data, not on popular faith.
14. To accept new thinkers and new ideas, be prepared to let go of old thinkers with old ideas.”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

-Peter Schiff and the money-supply myth

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, do not understand economics. If you understand the following, simple statement, you are ahead of most economists, politicians and media writers in America: Our government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay its bills.
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         Peter Schiff, who is running for one of Connecticut’s Senate seats and is president of Euro Pacific Capital, writes: “Almost every dictionary defines inflation as an expansion of the money supply, not rising prices.”
         Untrue. I have no idea what dictionary this guy is using, but he probably is using the libertarian “inflation is monetary inflation,” meaning supply = inflation.

        Money is a commodity. It is a surrogate in what otherwise would be a barter transaction.
         Inflation is the loss of money’s value compared with the value of goods and services. Like all commodities, the value of money is based on supply and demand. Increasing the supply does not cause inflation if the demand (interest rates) increases proportionately.

        [Note: Schiff may be influenced by the widely discredited and essentially worthless Austrian school of economics definition for inflation, a definition that has no real-world value, in that it does not include actual price changes.]
         Schiff also says, “Although more money may not immediately translate into rising prices, over time the correlation is extremely reliable.”

monetary sovereignty

        There is no historical relationship between M3 (green) or M2 (red) growth and inflation (blue). The reason: Money supply is only half the demand/supply story.
        When the Fed gets a whiff of inflation it raises interest rates, which by increasing the demand for money, increases the value of money (i.e. prevents/cures inflation).

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


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No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. It’s been 40 years since the U.S. became Monetary Sovereign, , and neither Congress, nor the President, nor the Fed, nor the vast majority of economists and economics bloggers, nor the preponderance of the media, nor the most famous educational institutions, nor the Nobel committee, nor the International Monetary Fund have yet acquired even the slightest notion of what that means.

Remember that the next time you’re tempted to ask a dopey teenager, “What were you thinking?” He’s liable to respond, “Pretty much what your generation was thinking when it screwed up my future.”

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

-Is inflation too much money chasing too few goods?


An alternative to popular faith

In the post “Do deficits cure inflation?” we saw that contrary to popular faith, deficit spending (i.e., too much money) has not caused inflation. We also saw that inflation can be cured by increasing the reward for owning money, i.e. by increasing interest rates.

Now we question another piece of popular faith: Is inflation caused by too much money chasing too few goods?

Begin with the notion of “too much money.” We already have seen that federal deficits are not related to inflation. What about another definition of money: M3? Please look at the following graph:

Clearly there is no immediate relationship between money supply and inflation. What about a subsequent relationship. Could “too much money” today, cause inflation later?

The graph indicates no such cause/effect relationship, with M3 peaks preceding inflation peaks by anywhere from 2 years to 10 years. It is difficult to imagine a graph revealing less relationship.

What about “too few goods”? If too few goods caused inflation, this would manifest itself with GDP moving opposite to CPI. Again, that does not seem to happen:

There seems to be no regular pattern, with GDP and CPI sometimes rising together and sometimes separately. In today’s international economy, it is difficult to substantiate the idea of a wide-spectrum commodity shortage when sufficient purchasing power exists.

Individual nations can experience shortages of individual commodities. Individual poor nations can experience shortages of a broad basket of commodities. But can a wealthy nation, with plenty of money to spend, suffer a shortage of a broad basket of commodities, thereby causing inflation? Has it recently happened?

Seems unlikely these days as products are made in multiple nations and shipped to multiple nations, with easy international shipping and instantaneous money convertibility. Your cotton shirt may have been grown in Egypt, woven in India, assembled in China, labeled in Italy and sold in the U.S. Clearly, a cotton shirt shortage would be rare, as any of these steps could occur in various countries, and that’s just one product. A nationwide “too-few-goods” situation, coincident with “too much money,” seems impossible.

There is however, one exception: Oil.

The graph below compares overall inflation with changes in energy prices, which are dominated by oil prices.

Oil is the one commodity that has worldwide usage, affects prices of most products and services, and can be in worldwide shortage. That is why, when oil prices rise or fall steeply, inflation rises and falls in concert.

The large oil price moves “pull” inflation in the same direction. When oil prices increased or decreased the most, inflation came along for the ride.

In summary, inflation is not caused by deficit spending or by “too much money chasing too few goods.” Inflation is caused by a combination of high oil prices and interest rates too low to counter-balance the oil prices.

The high oil prices can be caused by real shortages and/or by price manipulation.

Hyperinflation is a different beast, altogether. Every hyperinflation has been caused by shortages, most often shortages of food.

Zimbabwe, Weimar Republic, and Argentina had food shortages that created hyperinflations.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com