Tag: Concord Coalition

–Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget

An alternative to popular faith

On May 19th, I received the following Email from the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget:

“Dear friend, I am excited to share with you the latest CRFB initiative that I believe will quickly become a critical tool in educating the public regarding the fiscal outlook and motivating policymakers to take responsible action to put the country on a sustainable course. Today, we are publicly launching our “Stabilize the Debt” budget simulator (http://crfb.org/stabilizethedebt/).

“The ‘Stabilize the Debt’ challenge continues CRFB’s distinguished tradition of engaging policymakers, opinion leaders, the media, and the public in deliberating and discussing what it takes to be fiscally responsible. This new online endeavor is part of our long tradition of developing timely “Exercise in Hard Choices” exercises, and we are excited about our newest version.
[…]
“‘Stabilize the Debt’ challenges the user to think about reducing the debt in the longer term and maintaining it at a sustainable level, as opposed to simply balancing the budget for a single year. It promotes thinking about the need for both medium- and long-term term fiscal goals and how to attain them. It uses the goals from the Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform from the Red Ink Rising report of stabilizing the debt at 60 percent of GDP by 2018 and keeping it low.

“I encourage you to take the challenge and share with all your friends. Since Congress appears unlikely to produce a budget this year and have the needed debate over fiscal priorities, this simulator can fill that void by enabling Americans to discover and discuss the difficult choices that must be made and engage in a nationwide dialogue on how best to put the country on a sound fiscal course. Sincerely, Maya MacGuineas, CRFB President

“For press inquiries, please contact Kate Brown at (202) 596-3365 or brown@newamerica.net.”
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Not having had Ms. MacGuineas’s Email address at the time, I wrote the following letter to Ms. Brown on May 19th. And again on May 20th. And May 24th. And May 27th. To date, no answer, which is normal for all debt hawk organizations. Knowing they have no data to support their claims, they simply ignore requests for data, even when, as you’ll see, I offered to promulgate their beliefs:

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“Ms. Brown,

If you can supply historical, statistical evidence that the U.S. federal debt and deficit need to be reduced or are not sustainable, or that the federal debt needs to be stabilized at “60 percent of GDP by 2018,” I would be glad to post this data on my web site, https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com. I also will mail this information to my list of 100+ economics professors, 50 newspaper and magazine columnists, and 30 newspaper and magazine editors around the country.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell”
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Try it yourself. Write to any debt hawk organization or any debt hawk politician or economist, and ask for data to support the idea that the debt is too large. In the unlikely event you receive anything that constitutes evidence, please forward it to me.

Subsequently, I did find Maya MacGuineas’s Email address and wrote to her and Ms. Brown. For your interest, here is a calendar of my requests to supply evidence and my offer to send this evidence to economists and the media all over America:
May 19: Wrote to Ms. Brown
May 20: Wrote to Ms. Brown
May 24: Wrote to Ms. Brown
May 27: Wrote to Ms. Brown
May 28: Wrote to Ms. Brown & Ms. MacGuineas
June 1: Wrote to Ms. MacGuineas

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Open letter to John Mauldin re. his myths

      John Mauldin is President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA) which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. He also is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS) an NASD registered broker-dealer. He is the author of Thoughts from the Frontline, a blog at Mauldin.
      Recently, Mr. Mauldin wrote an article for his blog, and I wrote to him with a critique, as follows:

5/9/10
Mr. Mauldin:

      This note is sent to you in the spirit of helpfulness. Your article titled “The Center Cannot Hold,” quoting G. Cecchetti, M. S. Mohanty, and Fabrizio Zampolli contains several widely quoted, commonly believed myths. For example:

      Myth: “Long before we get to the place where we in the US are paying 20% of our GDP in interest (which would be about 80% of our tax collections, even with much higher tax rates) the bond market, not to mention taxpayers, will revolt. The paper’s authors clearly show that the current course is not sustainable.”
      Fact: Federal borrowing no longer (after 1971) is necessary nor even desirable. See: How to Eliminate Federal Deficits

      Myth: “A higher level of public debt implies that a larger share of society’s resources is permanently being spent servicing the debt. This means that a government intent on maintaining a given level of public services and transfers must raise taxes as debt increases.”
      Fact: Society’s resources do not service federal debt. See: Taxes do not pay for federal spending.

      Myth: “And if government debt crowds out private investment, then there is lower growth.”
      Fact: This also commonly is stated, “Government debt crowds out private borrowing” and government debt crowds out private lending.” There is no mechanism by which federal spending can crowd out investment, borrowing or lending. On the contrary, federal spending adds to the money supply, which stimulates investment, borrowing and lending. See: Why spending stimulates investment

      Myth: “A government cannot run deficits in times of crisis to offset the affects of the crisis, if they already are running large deficits and have a large debt. In effect, fiscal policy is hamstrung.”
      Fact: This is the strangest myth, since running deficits in a time of crisis is exactly what the U.S. government has been doing. It would be true of Greece and the other EU nations, but not of then U.S., Canada, Australia, China and other monetarily sovereign systems. See: Greece’s solution

      Myth: “[…] the current leadership of the Fed knows it cannot print money.”
      Fact: This myth is even stranger than the above “strangest” myth, since printing money is exactly what the Fed does. See: Unsustainable debt.

      Myth: “As frightening as it is to consider public debt increasing to more than 100% of GDP, an even greater danger arises from a rapidly aging population.”
      Fact: The famous federal debt/GDP ratio is completely meaningless – a classic apples/oranges comparison – that neither describes the health of the economy, nor measures the government’s ability to pay its bills nor has any other meaningful purpose. See: The Debt/GDP ratio

      If you would like to see more common myths about our economy, go to: Common economic myths

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

–Words from 2005

An alternative to popular faith

Sometimes the things you say and the things you predict come back to haunt you. And sometimes they don’t.

Here is what I told a group of economists and economics students on June 5, 2005, at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. Five years is a long time. You be the judge and let me know what you think:

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell SPEECH
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

 

–Why the crazy stock market fall

An alternative to popular faith

I recently read an article containing wonderment that despite good news (the April jobs report showed payrolls grew by 290,000) the stock market crashed. The author, John Curran, speculated: “One reason is that the Euro crisis in spite of all efforts remains very much a crisis, and that threatens the global economy. The second reason is that Thursday’s stock market blowout pointed up a dangerous vulnerability in the financial markets, one that we’ve known of (high frequency trading) but sort of forgotten. Third, the Labor Department’s jobs report while positive in some respects also contained a bit of negative news […] (increased unemployment).

While the Greek/EU situation is serious, it will not seiously affect the U.S. economy, so long as our government continues to deficit spend. Second, while high frequency, automated trading can cause short term, manic effects on the stock market, the longer term effects are minimal. Finally, the way unemployment is calculated (only those looking for a job are counted), makes it inevitable that when times improve, unemployment statistics rise. People who had given up, start again to look for jobs. So from that standpoint, the stock market is wrong.

There is one other scenario, that could have far greater significance than any of the above: The off shore oil well blowout. Not only will it cause enormous destruction in of itself, but it will prevent further offshore drilling for an unknown time. Weeks? Certainly. Months? Possibly. But weeks and months are no big deal.

Perhaps even years, and that is a big deal for our economy. For the past few decades, inflation has been caused, not by deficit spending, but by Oil Prices.

Even with the worst case scenario, the actual supply loss won’t be felt soon, but if the projected loss of oil production is significant, it will cause oil prices to rise, thus causing inflation. The debt hawks will assume (wrongly) the inflation is caused by deficits, and will demand that taxes be increased and spending decreased — either of which will stall economic growth and move us into a recession.

And that will drop the stock market.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity