–Even Paul Volcker doesn’t get it.

An alternative to popular faith

If even Paul Volcker doesn’t get it, how can the man in the street hope to understand — unless the man in the street is willing to look at the facts and Volcker isn’t?

“5/19/2001: STANFORD, California (Reuters) – Europe’s debt crisis shows the risks for the United States if it does not get its budget deficits under control, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said on Tuesday. ‘If we need any further illustration of the potential threats to our own economy from uncontrolled borrowing, we have only to look to the struggle to maintain the common European currency, to rebalance the European economy, and to sustain political cohesion of Europe,’ Volcker said.
[…]The U.S. budget deficit hit $1.4 trillion in 2009, roughly 10 percent of the economy. The White House projects the deficit this year will reach $1.6 trillion. The large deficits have evoked comparisons to Greece. But in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in California, Volcker said the United States differs from that country and other small European countries whose credit markets have come under speculative attack. Unlike those countries, the United States benefits from well-established currency and credit markets that are considered safe havens in times of financial turmoil.
[…]’There are serious questions, most immediately about the sustainability of our commitment to growing entitlement programs,’ said Volcker, who heads an outside panel of experts advising Obama on the economy”
.

Here is Paul Volcker, who of anyone, should know better, saying the difference between the U.S. and European countries is we have a well-established currency. No, Mr. Volcker, the difference is we are a monetarily sovereign nation and the EU countries are not. And that difference makes all the difference.

Somehow, the fact that we are running trillion-plus deficits, with none of the problems the EU nations are experiencing, doesn’t seem to penetrate Mr. Volcker’s skull. He has the debt hawk’s “It-hasn’t-happened-yet-but-I’m-sure-one-day-it-will” mentality, rather than the scientist’s “It-hasn’t-happened-yet.-I wonder-why” mentality.

Mr. Volcker, the reason “it” (inability to service national debts) happened to Greece, but not to the U.S., is simple: The U.S. has the unlimited ability to pay its bills, merely by crediting creditors’ bank accounts. EU rules prevent Greece from doing this. Either Mr. Volcker truly doesn’t understand the difference, which would be remarkable, or he has been paid to adopt a debt hawk agenda that forces him to close his eyes to basic fact.

Anyone who says Greece’s problems foreshadow similar problems for the U.S. either is ignorant of the facts or a liar.

And by the way, for those debt hawks who keep warning us that deficits cause inflation, we’re running the deficits, but: “5/19/2010: WASHINGTON (AFP) – US consumer prices fell for the first time in 13 months in April, the government said Wednesday as analysts warned of the risk of deflation in the world’s largest economy.” Isn’t it inconvenient the way facts seem to get in the way of wrong opinion?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–If you like gold, you’ll love . . .

An alternative to popular faith

I’m not sure why you like gold. It has minimum utility, and it is not backed by any government (unlike the dollar which is backed by the U.S. government). See: Fool’s Gold Or, perhaps you like paying for storage, insurance and shipping, as your generous contribution to the world’s economy. Or maybe you just like the shiny color.

But, for whatever the reasons, if you already own that virtually useless metal, how about owning some useful metals? Copper has a nice color as does nickel. Aluminum can be shiny like silver. You might enjoy them more, and you still would have the pleasure of paying for storage, insurance and shipping, along with an even better hedge against inflation than gold.


Gold up about 180%


Copper up about 1200%


Nickel up about 1500%


Aluminum up about 700%

Gold is a “greater fool” play, and one day someone will point out that the gold emperor has no clothes. Then, the price will drop like a useless gold bar, and the gold bubble will take its rightful place among other those notable bubbles for tulip bulbs, beanie babies and real estate.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Words from 2005

An alternative to popular faith

Sometimes the things you say and the things you predict come back to haunt you. And sometimes they don’t.

Here is what I told a group of economists and economics students on June 5, 2005, at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. Five years is a long time. You be the judge and let me know what you think:

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell SPEECH
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

 

–Why the crazy stock market fall

An alternative to popular faith

I recently read an article containing wonderment that despite good news (the April jobs report showed payrolls grew by 290,000) the stock market crashed. The author, John Curran, speculated: “One reason is that the Euro crisis in spite of all efforts remains very much a crisis, and that threatens the global economy. The second reason is that Thursday’s stock market blowout pointed up a dangerous vulnerability in the financial markets, one that we’ve known of (high frequency trading) but sort of forgotten. Third, the Labor Department’s jobs report while positive in some respects also contained a bit of negative news […] (increased unemployment).

While the Greek/EU situation is serious, it will not seiously affect the U.S. economy, so long as our government continues to deficit spend. Second, while high frequency, automated trading can cause short term, manic effects on the stock market, the longer term effects are minimal. Finally, the way unemployment is calculated (only those looking for a job are counted), makes it inevitable that when times improve, unemployment statistics rise. People who had given up, start again to look for jobs. So from that standpoint, the stock market is wrong.

There is one other scenario, that could have far greater significance than any of the above: The off shore oil well blowout. Not only will it cause enormous destruction in of itself, but it will prevent further offshore drilling for an unknown time. Weeks? Certainly. Months? Possibly. But weeks and months are no big deal.

Perhaps even years, and that is a big deal for our economy. For the past few decades, inflation has been caused, not by deficit spending, but by Oil Prices.

Even with the worst case scenario, the actual supply loss won’t be felt soon, but if the projected loss of oil production is significant, it will cause oil prices to rise, thus causing inflation. The debt hawks will assume (wrongly) the inflation is caused by deficits, and will demand that taxes be increased and spending decreased — either of which will stall economic growth and move us into a recession.

And that will drop the stock market.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity