-Warren Mosler for president


An alternative to popular faith

Warren Mosler, economist, perturbed by the misunderstanding of monetary policy by the current and past administrations, is running for President in 2012. He has been speaking at the Tea Parties, explaining to taxpayers that Washington is either at best ignorant of economic policy or at worst deceptive.” By Barry Ritholtz – The Big Picture, October 7th, 2009, 11:00AM

Warren Mosler has a better understanding of the economy than almost anyone I have known. If you want to see the real facts, in plain, clear English, go to http://www.moslereconomics.com/ and click the “7 Deadly Innocent Frauds” box on the left side of the page. I promise, you will learn something important.

In 2008, Warren helped edit an article I had written earlier. The article, endorsed by a number of eminent economics professors, is as follows:

Is It Time For a FICA Holiday?

Traditional thinking has produced an economic disaster, which the same traditional thinking cannot solve. As the U.S. and world economies slip into recession, we must remember this ultimately is a bookkeeping crisis. The housing “market” was destroyed, but not the actual houses. They still exist. Nothing real has been destroyed. Instead, we are starved for money.

This problem should be easier to remedy than a food shortage, water shortage or wartime destruction, because a money shortage can be cured by the simple expedient of adding money – something the federal government is uniquely empowered to do.

We propose a FICA payroll tax “holiday,” whereby the U.S. Treasury will make our Social Security and Medicare payments for us. This will add about $10 billion per week to our take-home pay, and another $10 billion to business income, both of which urgently are needed. When we eliminate this partly double, severely regressive tax, we will give consumers the income they need to make mortgage payments, to pay bills, and to do the shopping American business craves. The FICA holiday also will provide business with money for jobs and investment.

In contrast, the “top down” approach (saving Fannie Mae, buying toxic mortgages), while necessary, does not directly address consumer/business money needs, and has had only modest effect.

Common knowledge holds that Social Security and Medicare will face bankruptcy even with FICA. So proposed fixes invariably include benefit cuts, reducing consumer incomes, or tax increases, cutting consumer and business spending power – the opposite of what our economy requires.

Many people fear federal deficit spending when it supports Social Security and Medicare, but not when it supports the military. Social Security spending for 2008 is approximately $600 billion, about equal to the defense budget. Ironically, both candidates for President believed Social Security will run out of money and the military will not. The $1 trillion in “stimulus” spending was authorized without increased taxes. Both candidates advocated tax cuts.

Even during the darkest days of the Great Depression, the federal government never ran out of money. Massive government spending, before and during World War II, helped lift us from the Depression.

In 1971 President Nixon eliminated any risk of government insolvency by ending the last vestiges of the gold standard. At the stroke of a pen, he assured that neither the government, nor any of its agencies, could run short of money. Social Security and Medicare, being two of those 400+ agencies, are immune from bankruptcy.

If Congress authorizes the Treasury to make our Social Security and Medicare payments for us, thus allowing our take-home pay to rise, the economy will begin to recover. The elimination of FICA deductions would provide consumers and business with more than a trillion additional dollars annually, exactly what a healthy economy needs.

Won’t this increase the federal deficit? Yes, but President Nixon’s signature guaranteed the government never will run short of money to service its debts. This act removed taxes as a necessary source of federal money. Together with federal spending, taxation became a mere tool to create optimal output and employment. Whatever deficit accomplishes that goal is the right size.

Doesn’t a large deficit cause higher interest rates? No, interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve. The government can set rates at any level it wishes.

Doesn’t a large federal debt create a shortage of lending funds? No, the more money the government pumps into the economy, the more lending funds are created.

Won’t our children have to pay for the increased deficit? No, the government owes the debt and easily services a debt of any size. Our children are not the debtors. (In many cases, they even are the creditors.) Because the “right” size debt will continue to grow forever as our economy grows, it never should be reduced or paid back.

Meanwhile, each year the increased debt will help keep output high and unemployment low, benefiting our children with additional income, goods and services.

Won’t increasing the deficit by eliminating FICA, cause inflation? President Carter had modest deficits and high inflation. President Reagan had the highest deficits in American history and modest inflation. Contrary to popular faith, federal debt has not caused inflations, recessions, high interest rates or any other negative economic effects. On the contrary, large deficits have been associated with economic growth.

In summary, we offer new thinking – an accounting fix to an accounting problem: Eliminate FICA and pay for Medicare and Social Security the same way we pay for Congress, the military, the Supreme Court and every other federal agency, by functionally folding these two agencies into the general fund. The economic crisis has presented us with the rare opportunity to accomplish two important goals: Permanently fix the seemingly intractable Social Security and Medicare problems, and energize our economy.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

-New thinking from the New America Foundation


An alternative to popular faith

        Here is the text of an Email I sent to Steve Coll, President and CEO of the New America Foundation (http://newamerica.net/) (Offices in Washington, DC and San Francisco, CA). According to their web site, “The New America Foundation is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy institute that invests in new thinkers and new ideas to address the next generation of challenges facing the United States.” They publish 12 “Principles” by which they live.
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Dear Steve;
        Your principle #10, “Do not perpetuate budget myths” is excellent. In that regard you might wish to reconsider certain statements on your web site:

“In reality, the availability of debt financing is far from unlimited; in fact Japan and China have already begun to slow their purchasing of U.S. debt.”
        A myth. The federal government does not need to sell U.S. debt to Japan, China or to any other country or person. The government creates debt (T-securities) out of thin air, collateralized only by full faith and credit. It just as easily could create money out of thin air, also collateralized by full faith and credit, and eliminate the debt creation and sales step. Debt creation and sales is a relic of the gold-standard days.
See: How to eliminate federal debt, deficits and interest payments

        “While deficits can spur consumption and thus improve the immediate economic situation when there is slack in the economy, they lead to slower growth in living standards over the long run.”        
A myth. Federal deficits are necessary both for short term and long term growth. A growing economy requires a growing supply of money. Where else will the money come from to grow our economy?
See: I believe

        “Moreover, high deficits increase interest payments, which crowd out important tax and spending priorities and leave the budget with far less flexibility than it would otherwise.”        
Partly true, partly a myth. High deficits can increase interest payments. However the conclusion is circular reasoning. Interest payments can “crowd out” spending priorities only if the government is precluded from running deficits. To date, despite massive deficits for the past 30 years, interest payments never have crowded out anything.

        “Lastly, deficits shift the burden of paying for today’s spending to future generations, which may cause over-consumption by present generations at the expense of consumption by future generations.”
A myth: Today’s deficits are paid by future generations only if the future generations decide to run surpluses. When any generation runs a deficit, it’s tax payments do not even cover its current expenses, let alone past expenses. Deficits do not cost taxpayers money. Only surpluses cost taxpayers money.
See: It isn’t taxpayers’ money

        I have suggestions for a 13th and 14th principle:
13. Base all suggestions on supporting data, not on popular faith.
14. To accept new thinkers and new ideas, be prepared to let go of old thinkers with old ideas.”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

-Learn to love the debt

An alternative to popular faith

       Deficits are necessary. They add money to the economy. A large economy has more money than does a small economy. Therefore a growing economy requires a growing supply of money. Quod erat demonstrandum.
       Concern about the federal debt revolves around two beliefs: Someone (often characterized as “our grandchildren”) will have to pay those debts, and large debts cause inflation.
      For us citizens, personal debt is concerning, because our debt must be repaid. People go bankrupt when they can’t repay their debts. But, if you owned a magic printing press, and you had the legal right to print as much money as you wished, your debt never would concern you.
       Received a bill for a million dollars? No problem. Turn on the magic press and poof!, it’s paid. Unfortunately, you and I don’t own a magic press, so we worry about our debt.
       The federal government, uniquely among all U.S. debtors does own that magic printing press. It can pay bills of any size, which is how today, it easily services a gross debt of $12 trillion. Not even during the current recession has any federal check bounced. Not even close.
       Still we worry about federal debt as though it were our own. Why? Partly because so many people tell us we owe the federal debt. How silly. Debt is owed by borrowers. We are not the borrowers. In many cases, we are the lenders, the owners of T-securities. The government is the borrower, and we are not the government. There will be no bill collectors on our doorsteps, demanding that we pay our mythical share of the federal debt.
       But won’t “our grandchildren” have to pay for the debt through higher taxes? For the past 50 years, tax rates actually have gone down, despite massive deficits. There is no relationship between deficits and tax rates, which are political, not financial, decisions.
      What if tax rates were to rise moderately? Let’s do the math. Say in Year One, taxes total $10 trillion and spending totals $11 trillion. Spending exceeds taxes, which causes a $1 trillion debt.
       In Year Two, tax rates rise, so taxes now total $11 trillion, but spending rises to $12 trillion, and now the debt has risen to $2 trillion.
       How much of Year One’s debt did taxpayers pay? Answer: None. Taxes weren’t even sufficient to pay for Year two’s spending, let alone pay for last year’s debt. The only time taxpayers pay for debt is when taxes exceed spending, i.e a surplus.
       That is why surpluses have caused all six depressions in U.S. history. Surpluses, not debt, cost taxpayers money.
       The inflation logic is that federal debt increases the money supply (true), which dilutes the value of money (not true). Money value is based not only on supply, but also on demand.
       Money supply can increase massively, and still not cause inflation, if demand goes up as much. Demand is determined by risk and reward. Risk is inflation (which is a result, not a cause), so the key to money value is reward.
       What is the reward for owning money? One reward is the ability to buy things with it, but in a massive economy like ours, there always are plenty of things to buy. The real reward for owning money is interest. The higher the rates, the more valuable the money. That’s why the Fed raises rates at even the hint of inflation, and that also is why in the past 50 years, there has been no relationship between federal deficits and inflation. None. (See: See Do Deficits cure inflation?
       In conclusion, rather than being concerned about federal debt, we should welcome it. Money growth brings economic growth.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
For more information, see http://www.rodgermitchell.com

-It isn’t “taxpayers’ money” .. Tax rates through the years

An alternative to popular faith

The media frequently claim federal deficits spend taxpayers’ money. This is, as Star Trek’s Mr. Spock said, “illogical.”

If deficits spent tax money, they wouldn’t be deficits. “Deficit” means spending beyond tax receipts.

“Ah,” you say. “But our children and grandchildren will pay the taxes.” Wrong again. There is no historical relationship between tax rates and deficits. In more than 50 years, tax rates have gone down or remained level, depending on your income. This, despite huge deficits and even a couple surpluses.

Tax rates 60-09

Since taxes do not supply the money for federal spending (the government creates money ad hoc, for all its spending) your children and grandchildren will not pay for today’s deficits, which can and will continue forever.

So don’t be concerned if GM and Chrysler don’t pay back their loans. In fact, be concerned if they do. Any payback merely takes money out of the economy and costs jobs — call it an “anti-stimulus” — and doesn’t put one penny in your pocket.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
For more information, see http://www.rodgermitchell.com