–Why the states are in financial trouble

An alternative to popular faith

Most of the states are deeply in debt. Some of them even have stopped paying their bills. I live in Illinois. It is a deadbeat state. Our newspapers run editorials suggesting solutions to Illinois’ huge budget problems. These solutions detail tax increases and spending cuts. Sound familiar?

Neither solution will work. All states, counties and cities should understand why even the most well considered tax increases and spending cuts cannot solve their financial problems.

Yes, Illinois has among the most dishonest groups of political leaders. And yes, Illinois ranks in the upper 10% of the most distressed states. But it’s not entirely the fault of our crooked politicians.

No political entity, whether it be country, state, county or city can prosper and grow, unless it either can create money or obtain money from outside. Spending reductions reduce services and negatively impact the economy, which reduces tax collections in a never-ending downward spiral.

Tax increases merely circulate money within the political entity.Additional money is needed, because even nominal inflation reduces the real value of money. Imagine that together, the state of Illinois, its counties, cities and citizens, owned a total of $100 billion. To balance its budget, Illinois decides to raise taxes, which takes $10 billion from taxpayers and sends it to the state, which then sends the $10 billion back to the taxpayers when it pays its bills.

What has happened? Essentially nothing. There still is a total of $100 billion in the state, except after a year, even with a modest annual inflation of 2%, this money now is worth only $98 billion in purchasing power. After ten years of 2% annual inflation, that same money now is worth less than $82 billion.

Another reason the states, counties and cities cannot survive on taxes alone: Federal taxes remove money from the state every year, and as the money supply declines the state’s economy declines.

Unlike the federal government, Illinois cannot create money at will. It must obtain money from outside its borders. There are but two sources of outside money. One is exporting. We can send goods and services to other locations, which will send us money. But it is quite difficult for any state’s exports to exceed its imports by enough to grow its economy and stay ahead of inflation. An oil-rich state like Alaska and a tourism state like Nevada, both have money coming in from outside. But even these states eventually need a source of additional income.

And that source is the federal government, which in 1971 ended the gold standard, giving itself the unlimited ability to create money, not supported by taxes. By comparison, Greece is not so fortunate. It is limited by the “euro standard.” Illinois is limited by the “dollar standard.” All three standards limit money creation.

Despite fears of “big government,” the federal government must assume more financial obligations. As states, counties and cities continually raise taxes, they find they are in a never-ending, futile cycle, not just because of inefficient management, but also because it is long-term impossible for any political entity to survive, much less grow, without the ability either to create its own money or to receive money from outside its borders.

Rather than pundits calling for ever higher taxes and/or reduced spending, neither of which add to the money supply, they should demand more federal support. Mathematically, that is the only lasting solution.

In summary: The anti-big-federal-government crowd fails to take into consideration the fact that unlike the federal government, the states, counties and cities are unable to create money. When any political entity is unable to create money, its economy will stagnate, unless it receives funds from outside. Worse than stagnate, its economy will decline because inflation makes its own money lose value.

Ongoing economic growth demands ongoing money growth by the federal government.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–Prof. Barro and the cost of federal spending

An alternative to popular faith

The 1/22/10 Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by Professor Robert Barro (Harvard University), who believes, “Much more focus should be on incentives for people and businesses to invest, produce and work. On the tax side, we should avoid programs that throw money at people and emphasize instead reductions in marginal income-tax rates — especially where these rates are already high and fall on capital income. Eliminating the federal corporate income tax would be brilliant. On the spending side, the main point is that we should not be considering massive public-works programs that do not pass muster from the perspective of cost-benefit analysis. Just as in the 1980s, when extreme supply-side views on tax cuts were unjustified, it is wrong now to think that added government spending is free.”

Mostly, I agree — with one huge exception. That last phrase, ” . . . it is wrong now to think that added government spending is free” is itself, wrong.

If federal government spending is not free, it must have a cost. So what is the cost? Not higher taxes, which have no historical relationship to deficit spending. (See item #9 at https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/introduction/.)
Taxes generally have been based on political, not economic, considerations. From a financial standpoint, taxes no longer (after 1971, the end of the gold standard) affect the federal government’s ability to spend. In fact, all federal taxes could be eliminated tomorrow, and the federal government’s ability to spend would not be reduced by even one penny.

Is the cost of federal government spending increased inflation. No, not that either. There is no historical relationship between federal deficits and inflation. The highest inflation since WWII came with the modest Carter deficits, and was cured during the robust Reagan spending years. A graph of deficit growth vs. inflation shows a zero cause/effect relationship. (See item #8 in https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/introduction/ )

Well then, does deficit spending cause high interest rates? The graph at https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/11/15/deficits-and-interest-rates-another-myth/ indicates no relationship between high deficits and high interest rates.

Even if deficit spending did cause interest rates to rise, there is no historical relationship between low rates and high GDP growth. See item #10 at https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/introduction/

In summary, there is no post-1971 cost to federal deficit spending, a strong argument for tax cuts and increased spending and a strong argument against deficit concerns.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–The Greek tragedy

An alternative to popular faith

Observe a Greek tragedy, courtesy of the European Union, which insists that Greece reduce its deficit, i.e. reduce its money supply in the face of a recession, where money already is in short supply. This is akin to applying leeches as a cure for anemia.

Read this quote from an article today (2/27/10):

“ATHENS (Reuters) – Greece must take further measures to reduce the deficit or it will face sanctions, Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker (said) . . . Greece has until March 16 to convince EU . . . that proposed measures to cut its budget shortfall this year to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product from 12.7 percent in 2009 are sufficient.

“‘Greece must intensify its efforts and move to further actions to reduce its deficit,’ (said) Juncker, ‘If it doesn’t convince us then it will possibly face sanctions. Greece must understand that the taxpayers in Germany, Belgium or Luxembourg are not ready to fix the mistakes of Greece’s fiscal policy,’ Juncker said.”
(Reporting by Lefteris Papadimas; editing by Ingrid Melander and Philippa Fletcher)

The mistakes were not of Greek policy, but of EU policy. The creation of the euro pegged all nations to the same money, exactly what the failed gold standard did.

In short, the EU expects Greece to tax itself into prosperity. Sadly, this may be a perfect test of the debt-hawk theory that cutting deficits benefits an economy. Heaven help the Greeks.

And don’t think it couldn’t happen in America. The debt-hawks control most of the media, politicians and economists. Congress’s and the President’s stated mission to minimize or even eliminate federal deficits, could make the Greek tragedy resemble a musical comedy compared to what would happen here.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


–More “debt bomb” nonsense

An alternative to popular faith

Well, they just keep on doing it. The February 8, 2010 Forbes Magazine’s cover story is titled, “The Global Debt Bomb,” by Daniel Fisher.

It contains the usual scary words, for instance: “The world has issued so much debt in the past two years fighting the Great Recession that paying it all back is going to be hell –for Americans, along with everybody else. Taxes will have to rise around the globe, hobbling job growth and economic recovery.” Etc., etc., etc. You get the idea.

Never mind that this is exactly the same “sky is falling” commentary — even using the words “debt bomb” — we have been hearing from pundits since 1940 (See https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/federal-debt-a-ticking-time-bomb/). Never mind that “government debt” is an exact synonym for “government money,” which needs to grow if an economy is to grow.

Never mind that “paying it back” is not, and since 1971 (the end of the gold standard) never will be, a problem for a sovereign nation with the unlimited ability to create money. Never mind that using this unlimited ability has not caused inflation, which in any event could be cured by raising interest rates. And never mind that taxpayers do not pay for federal debt and tax rates are not related to federal debt.

In short, never mind history, and just keep making the same old, wrong predictions, using the same old words, because let’s face it, fear-mongering sells magazines, and why make up new words when cribbing the old words is so much easier.

Pick up that issue of Forbes, read Fisher’s article, and wherever you see the word “debt” replace it with the word “money.” That will show you the reality. Also, if you know how to contact Fisher, you might ask him to supply historical proof that, as he says, “. . . the taxpayer will have the devil to pay.”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
www.rodgermitchell.com