–Remember David Stockman? Better you should forget David Stockman

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, do not understand economics. If you understand the following, simple statement, you are ahead of most economists, politicians and media writers in America: Our government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay its bills.
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David A. Stockman, a former Republican representative from Michigan, was President Reagan’s director of the Office of Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985. He wrote an OpEd column for the New York Times that is so wrong as to be a parody.

Here are a few excerpts:

It is obvious that the nation’s desperate fiscal condition requires higher taxes on the middle class, not just the richest 2 percent.

I guess he thinks our “desperate fiscal condition” is the federal deficit, or is it federal debt. He doesn’t say which. (They are completely different, not even functionally related.) Somehow, I thought our real problems are unemployment and slow per capita GDP growth, both of which would be exacerbated by Stockman’s call for higher taxes on the middle and upper classes.

Likewise, entitlement reform requires means-testing the giant Social Security and Medicare programs, not merely squeezing the far smaller safety net in areas like Medicaid and food stamps.

“Means testing” is a euphemism for another unnecessary federal tax. The federal government could and should support Social Security and Medicare. And did you notice the “. . . not merely squeezing . . . Medicaid and food stamps.”? Not merely? So it’s O.K. to squeeze the poor, so long as the middle class is squeezed, too?

A quasi-bankrupt nation saddled with rampant casino capitalism on Wall Street and a disemboweled, offshored economy on Main Street requires practical and equitable ways to pay its bills.

“Quasi-bankrupt”? “Rampant casino capitalism”? “Disemboweled, offshored economy”? You always can tell a guy is full of crap when he uses that kind of wild language. What is “quasi-bankrupt”? No one knows. The federal government isn’t, and never can be, bankrupt. So does that make it “quasi”? Or is he talking about the public, many of whom are really, not quasi, bankrupt, in part because the David Stockman’s of the world do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, thus making the federal government deficit reluctant.

And “casino capitalism”? It’s a cute phrase, but specifically, what does that mean? Too much lending? And here I thought one of our problems was too little lending.

Ingratiating himself with the neo-cons, Mr. Ryan has put the $700 billion defense and security budget off limits; and caving to pusillanimous Republican politicians, he also exempts $17 trillion of Social Security and Medicare spending over the next decade. What is left, then, is $7 trillion in baseline spending for Medicaid and the social safety net — to which Mr. Ryan applies a meat cleaver, reducing outlays by $1.5 trillion, or 20 percent.

Trapped between the religion of low taxes and the reality of huge deficits, the Ryan plan appears to be an attack on the poor in order to coddle the rich. To the Democrats’ invitation to class war, the Republicans have seemingly sent an R.S.V.P.

Absolutely true. That’s what deficit reduction nonsense does. See, it’s like this. Deficits are absolutely necessary for economic growth. So when you try to reduce deficits you always wind up doing something really stupid.

. . . Such fiscal jabberwocky ignores the fact that we have experienced a recession every five years or so for the last six decades . .

Right. And all but one of them has been introduced by reductions in federal deficit growth – the reductions Mr. Stockman recommends.

. . . for decades now, the central banks of the world have been giving policymakers a false signal that sovereign debt is cheap and limitless. Functioning like monetary roach motels, central banks have become a place where Treasury bonds go in but never come out — thereby causing bond prices to be far higher and interest yields much lower than would obtain in a market that wasn’t rigged.

Monetarily Sovereign debt is very cheap (it costs nothing) and it is limitless. Nobody knows what “Treasury bonds go in but never come out” means, but he loves his “roach motel” analogy. Interest yields are exactly what the Fed makes them to be.

Indeed, the Fed and currency-pegging central banks in East Asia and the Persian Gulf have absorbed nearly all of Uncle Sam’s multitrillion-dollar spree of debt issuance. Moreover, about $4.6 trillion, or more than half of all debt held by the public, is now sequestered in central banks — paid for with printing-press money.

The government could stop issuing debt tomorrow, and this would have zero affect on the government’s ability to spend. He, of all people, should know that. Further, “printing press money” is money. What other kind of money is there, David?

Even central banks cannot defy the canons of sound finance indefinitely, however. Japan will buy less Treasury paper as it turns inward to recover from the wrath of nature. Likewise, China will drastically curtail its currency pegging and related Treasury bond purchases in order to suppress the rip-roaring imported inflation and speculative bubbles now engulfing its domestic economy. And unless the Fed wants to ruin the value of the dollar, it will need to keep its promise to get out of the bond-buying business, too, when its second round of quantitative easing ends in June.

We don’t need to sell Treasuries to Japan, China or anyone else. The Fed can protect the value of the dollar simply by raising interest rates.

Ominously, the biggest and baddest of these real investors, the quarter-trillion-dollar Pimco Total Return Fund, has already thrown down the gauntlet by selling Uncle Sam’s paper short.

All that means is Pimco expects interest rates to rise, which will reduce the price of existing Treasuries. Ho hum, This is ominous?? Since rates essentially are zero now, there is nowhere to go but up.

In the real world, however, the global bond market is already rumbling — and around the corner, a fiscal conflagration surely lies.

“Fiscal conflagration.” Believe it or not, this blog post cut out most of his extravagant language. It went on and on, with each colorful phase adding to the assurance he is clueless. Anyway, he ends with the typical debt-hawk non-prediction, prediction: “Around the corner.” You may add this to “soon,” “one day,” “someday,” “eventually” “ticking time bomb,” “unsustainable,” “over time,” “children and grandchildren” and all the other indefinite prophesies.

Perhaps most amazing, is that so many famous pundits all write the same, apocalyptic drivel, over and over again, and the media keep printing it. How many times can the preachers predict the same end of the world, before the congregations figure out these guys are charlatans?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


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No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. It’s been 40 years since the U.S. became Monetarily Sovereign, and neither Congress, nor the President, nor the Fed, nor the vast majority of economists and economics bloggers, nor the preponderance of the media, nor the most famous educational institutions, nor the Nobel committee, nor the International Monetary Fund have yet acquired even the slightest notion of what that means.

Remember that the next time you’re tempted to ask a dopey teenager, “What were you thinking?” He’s liable to respond, “Pretty much what your generation was thinking when it screwed up the economy.”

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

Should we really be turning food into oil? Do biofuels starve the world?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, do not understand economics. If you understand the following, simple statement, you are ahead of most economists, politicians and media writers in America: Our government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay its bills.
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Oil is non-renewable; corn, soybeans and sugar are renewable. One day (Who knows when?), the world will run out of oil. The world never will run out of corn, soybeans and sugar. Based on those simple facts, the decision was made to turn food into oil, otherwise known as biofuel. Yet that decision has been a favorite liberals’ (and to a lesser degree, conservatives’) target.

The underlying facts are not so simple. My friend Warren Mosler, for whom I have great respect, wrote on his blog:

“The reality is very simple, and there is no end in sight. The US is a net exporter of food, and a net importer (directly and indirectly) of motor fuels. So with current high gasoline prices we get a higher price for our food surplus by burning up part of it for fuel.

Even if the energy used in creating the ethanol is somewhat more than the energy produced, the energy used is generally coming from lower cost and domestically produced sources such as coal. And the fuel burned in our cars replaces gasoline- a much higher cost energy that we import.

So, bottom line, burning up part of our surplus crops as motor fuel, which drives up food prices world wide, we reduce imports of motor fuels and we get a higher price for the remaining foods we export. That is, we benefit economically from the global chaos and the likelihood of mass starvation created by this policy.

(We should) outlaw ethanol and biofuels that use up acreage that otherwise produces food.”

I wrote to Warren, “So it is your opinion that the U.S. is short of farming acreage, and that we now have reached the limits of U.S. food output? And it is your opinion that the entire world has reached the limits of food production, which is why the U.S. turning some of its corn into oil raises all food prices, worldwide? Sounds a bit suspicious to me. Do you have any data to support these beliefs?” I’ll let you know what he says.

I saw “A Note on Rising Food Prices” by Donald Mitchell (no relation) of The World Bank Development Prospects Group, 2008. It’s a long paper, but I’d like to show you the featured (bolded) lines from three adjacent paragraphs:

“–Estimates of the contribution of biofuels production to food price increases are difficult, if not impossible to compare.
–Despite all the differences in approach, many studies recognize biofuels production as a major driver of food prices.
–Many other potential drivers of the escalating food prices are mentioned in discussions, but there are few quantitative estimates of their impact.”

To paraphrase, “We have estimates, not data, and we can’t compare those estimates. Some people think biofuels raise food prices, but some do not. Nevertheless, we emotionally, not factually, have adopted the position that biofuels raise food prices.”

The paper goes on to list some of the reasons for higher food prices:
1. The increase in energy prices
2. Increases in prices of fertilizer and chemicals
3. Increases in the costs of transportation
4. Drought in Australia
5. Poor crops in Europe
6. Rapid import demand increases for oilseeds by China to feed its growing livestock and poultry industry
7. Decline of the dollar
8. The increased investment in commodities by institutional investors to hedge against inflation
9. And oh yes, turning corn and soybeans into oil.

Those of you who have read Inflation/Oil know that inflation has been caused by increased oil prices. So one should assume that creating oil from plants would at least to some degree, mitigate inflation by increasing the supply of oil. Of the nine reasons for higher food prices, five are due to the increased price of oil.

This means, if corn and soybeans were not turned into oil, the price of oil would be higher, inflation would be worse and the price of food would go higher. Of course that is speculation, because despite many absolute opinions, no one really knows the effect of biofuels on food production or food prices.

Consider corn. Oil is made from corn silage. Only a tiny percentage of all corn is used for human consumption. It’s called sweet corn. The vast majority of corn is field corn, which is turned into silage. Only silage is turned into oil. Silage is made from cobs, leaves, stalks, husks and the grain itself.

“In 2009, there were over 86 million acres of corn planted in the United States. In the same year, only a little more than a quarter-million of that was used for growing sweet corn.” ( CompareXY Library) With only 1% of all corn acreage devoted to being eaten by humans, it is difficult to say with any certainty that oil production decreases sweet corn production. A further complexity: Even sweet corn cobs, leaves, stalks and husks are turned into silage.

The above is a bare hint at the massive data surrounding this subject, data that can be turned to any desired meaning. For me, the bottom line is:

1. If the creation of biofuels uses less oil than it creates, the process saves a non-renewable energy source at the cost of a renewable energy source.
2. Creating oil reduces inflation.
3. Inflation has an adverse affect on people’s ability to buy food.
4. The U.S. use of field corn, soybeans and sugar for oil has only a minuscule affect, if any, on the world’s human food supply.
5. The U.S. and the world are capable of producing more food crop than now is produced.
6. A limiting factor in world food production is oil prices, which can be reduced by increasing the supply of biofuels.

There are many other factors and many other considerations, and the above surely is an overly simplified summary, but on balance, I feel biofuels are a worthwhile federal investment. I do not believe biofuel production with cause the mass starvation Warren predicts. Quite the opposite.

I welcome your comments.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


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No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. It’s been 40 years since the U.S. became Monetarily Sovereign, and neither Congress, nor the President, nor the Fed, nor the vast majority of economists and economics bloggers, nor the preponderance of the media, nor the most famous educational institutions, nor the Nobel committee, nor the International Monetary Fund have yet acquired even the slightest notion of what that means.

Remember that the next time you’re tempted to ask a dopey teenager, “What were you thinking?” He’s liable to respond, “Pretty much what your generation was thinking when it screwed up the economy.”

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–Why the Democrats’ ignorant plan is better than the Tea/Republicans’ ignorant plan

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, do not understand economics. If you understand the following, simple statement, you are ahead of most economists, politicians and media writers in America: Our government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay its bills.
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The Tea (formerly Republican) Party wants lower taxes (good) and less federal spending (bad). The Tea Party hero of the day, Rand Paul is an ardent follower of Ayn Rand. Yes, that Ayn Rand, the one who believes the rich are gods who deserve more, while the poor are leeches who deserve less.

He has couched his beliefs in Tea appeals to tax cuts, patriotism and freedom from government interference, as in freedom from health care, freedom from military protection, freedom from good roads and safe bridges, freedom from healthful medicines and food, freedom to discriminate against gays, freedom from safe banks, freedom from a good education, freedom from clean air, freedom from energy saving, freedom from police protection, freedom from Social Security, freedom from safe air travel, and the many other freedoms we so ardently desire.

But the Tea night is ending, and the dawn of realization has begun.

Washington Post: by Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, Wednesday, April 20, 2011. “Despite growing concerns about the country’s long-term fiscal problems and an intensifying debate in Washington about how to deal with them, Americans strongly oppose some of the major remedies under consideration, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

“The survey finds that Americans prefer to keep Medicare just the way it is. Most also oppose cuts in Medicaid and the defense budget. More than half say they are against small, across-the-board tax increases combined with modest reductions in Medicare and Social Security benefits. Only President Obama’s call to raise tax rates on the wealthiest Americans enjoys solid support.”

Now, as we Americans awaken to the fact that the Tea/Republican plan to reduce federal spending amounts to the reduction of all the things we want, as well as benefitting those hated rich people, somehow President Reagan’s “government is the problem” mantra doesn’t seem so attractive.

Of course, increasing taxes on anyone, rich or poor, is a typically bad, Democratic idea. All taxes remove money from the economy, and removing money from the economy causes recessions and depressions. Further, this removal of money always hurts the poor more than it hurts the rich. See: Taxing the rich hurts the poor.

That said, I favor Obama’s plan to the Tea/Republican “plan.” Before you faint, let me explain. Both plans are equally ignorant in that they begin with the false assumption federal deficit spending must be reduced. In the Economics Common Sense and Knowledge race, both parties come in last.

However, they have convinced the innocent public of this falsehood, which forces on us a lesser-of-two-evils choice, and Obama’s plan is less evil. Why? Because raising tax rates on the rich not only will satisfy the jealous public, and not only will preserve the various benefits of federal spending, but in reality, will not collect much more in taxes.

We already have learned that higher taxes beget better tax “loopholes.” Remember, rich people know how to bribe politicians better than do poor people. So as those rates rise, the deductions will rise, too. A (for instance) 10% increase in tax rates on those making more than $250K per year, will not net a 10% increase in taxes collected from the rich – maybe not even 5%. Depending on the effectiveness of the bribery, a tax rate increase actually could net less money, because better deductions could be worth more than the marginal rate.

Bottom line, the Obama plan will make everyone happier. The poor will benefit; the rich won’t care and the economy will be less injured by losing money.

As an aside, if I were running for office, my opponent would tell the voters I voted in favor of tax increases, and this is why the politicians find themselves surrendering to their party, rather than thinking.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


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No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. It’s been 40 years since the U.S. became Monetarily Sovereign, and neither Congress, nor the President, nor the Fed, nor the vast majority of economists and economics bloggers, nor the preponderance of the media, nor the most famous educational institutions, nor the Nobel committee, nor the International Monetary Fund have yet acquired even the slightest notion of what that means.

Remember that the next time you’re tempted to ask a dopey teenager, “What were you thinking?” He’s liable to respond, “Pretty much what your generation was thinking when it screwed up the economy.”

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–Chicago Tribune reminds us why our nation is in trouble.

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, do not understand economics. If you understand the following, simple statement, you are ahead of most economists, politicians and media writers in America: Our government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay its bills.
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Thank heaven for the Chicago Tribune. Without them and their ilk, I might have nothing to write. Despite frequent letters from me, they continue to display an almost supernatural reluctance to understand what they write about. These folks simply refuse to learn economics, and they seem proud of it. Here’s their latest:

“S&P didn’t wait for the hot air to finish blowing before raising the prospect that at some point, the U.S. government may not be able to keep paying interest on its bonds.”

Ah, yes, the old “at some point.” Add it to “eventually,” “someday,” “some time,” “soon,” “ticking time bomb,” “unsustainable,” “over time,” and other confident predictions about an unknown future.

The federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the unlimited ability to credit checking accounts. In the space of one minute, the federal government could credit every bond holder’s checking account, not only for interest, but for principal. Further, because a government with the unlimited ability to create dollars does not need to borrow dollars, all federal debt could disappear in that one minute. And none of this would affect federal spending by even one cent.

Imagine. A nation without debt, and it easily can be accomplished without adding even one dollar to the money supply, so there are no inflation implications. What would the Tea (formerly Republican) Party have to scream about then?

Anyway, what does the Tribune mean when it says the U.S. government may not be able to keep paying interest? Ask them. Let me know if ever they answer.

“A rating cut almost certainly would push interest rates higher, undermining the Federal Reserve’s efforts to pump up the economy by printing money.”

Perhaps, the Tribune editors can be excused for not knowing it mostly is the Treasury that “prints money.” (Actually, credits checking accounts. Physical printing is a minuscule part of dollar creation.) But the Trib cannot be excused for thinking interest rates affect a Monetarily Sovereign nation’s ability to create money. Even were interest rates 200%, the government easily could continue creating dollars. Not that we recommend such a thing, but the physical ability exists.

“Unable to borrow on reasonable terms, America would have no choice but to win back the market’s confidence by jacking up taxes and slashing programs.”

I’ve asked the Tribune on many occasions, “Why would a nation, with the unlimited ability to create dollars, need to borrow dollars?” They never answer, so once again I’ll try to educate the ineducable. The federal government does not need to create T-securities, then trade them for dollars it previously created. T-securities could disappear (as could taxes), and this would not affect the federal government’s ability to spend. (Yes, yes, I know. There are inflation implications to the instant elimination of taxes, but not to the elimination of T-securities)

“It’s the federal government that can’t stop borrowing more than $4 billion a day to pay for politicians’ priorities.”

Federal borrowing pays for absolutely nothing. And excuse me, but do you consider Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, food stamps, the military, the infrastructure, R&D, education, etc., etc., etc., to be politicians’ priorities? How about people’s priorities?

“(The U.S. is ) much more diversified and adaptable than the smaller European countries now in severe distress. But even the world’s most powerful nation can’t buy time forever when it’s running up a tab it hasn’t got the money to pay.”

Here the Tribune editors show they don’t understand the difference between the Monetary Sovereignty of the U.S. and the monetary non-sovereignty of “smaller European countries.” And as for, “. . . it hasn’t got the money to pay,” if that were true, how have we been paying it? (And please, please don’t say, “by borrowing.”)

Actually, this isn’t the worst Tribune editorial. It’s pretty much average on the ignorance meter. But it provides a reminder of how astray our media have helped lead America. The only solution is for the media to receive letters, lots and lots of letters, urging them to open their minds to learning. If you want to contribute to the effort, here are some people you may wish to contact:

Gerould W. Kern at ctc-editor@tribune.com
R. Bruce Dold, Editorial Page Editor at bdold@tribune.com
Jane Hirt, VP/Managing Editor at jhirt@tribune.com
Joycelyn Winnecke, VP/Associate Editor at jwinnecke@tribune.com

Perhaps, if enough of us write, the message will begin to penetrate.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


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No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. It’s been 40 years since the U.S. became Monetarily Sovereign, and neither Congress, nor the President, nor the Fed, nor the vast majority of economists and economics bloggers, nor the preponderance of the media, nor the most famous educational institutions, nor the Nobel committee, nor the International Monetary Fund have yet acquired even the slightest notion of what that means.

Remember that the next time you’re tempted to ask a dopey teenager, “What were you thinking?” He’s liable to respond, “Pretty much what your generation was thinking when it screwed up the economy.”