–Does China need to export as much as it does?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

It widely is believed China must continue to increase its exports to maintain its economic growth and to pay its massive population. The desire for growing exports is what drives China’s reluctance to revalue the yuan upward.

But, does China’s economy really rely on ever-increasing exports? China is a Monetarily Sovereign nation. As such it has the unlimited ability to create its own sovereign currency.

Think of what happens when Chinese Factory “A” exports to the United States. Factory “A” receives dollars, a foreign currency it cannot use to pay its workers. So how does Factory “A” pay its workers? It exchanges these dollars for the yuan China creates from thin air.

This means, for every dollar Chinese Factory “A” receives, the Chinese government creates 6.7 yuan (current exchange rate), which it gives to Factory “A” in exchange for U.S. dollars. Factory “A” pays its workers with yuan, created by the Chinese government, while the Chinese government amasses dollars.

The Chinese government can use some of those dollars for international trade (oil purchases, etc.), but many become T-securities held in China’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank. In short, China’s economic growth requires the Chinese government to create yuan from thin air.

If Chinese factories exported less and received fewer dollars, the Chinese government could continue to create and distribute the same number or yuan as now. The only difference: Instead of giving these yuan to its people in exchange for many dollars, it merely would give those same yuan to the people, while receiving fewer dollars.

There would be less accumulation of T-securities at the FRB, a difference that has scant effect on the Chinese worker or on the Chinese economy.

How would the Chinese government give yuan to its people, if it were not exchanging yuan for dollars? Answer: More domestic deficit spending on things like roads, health care, retirement benefits, etc. A case might be made that the Chinese population would be better off receiving salaries for building domestic roads, providing domestic health care, etc., than receiving salaries for creating toys, clothing and other export items of no domestic value.

Without exports, the Chinese government would create about the same number of yuan as it now creates with exports. The entire domestic process would be affected very little. Yes, China can use U.S. dollars for certain imports, but I suspect it already has stockpiled enough dollars for that purpose to last several lifetimes, so the question becomes: Does China need to export as much as it does?

Monetarily non-sovereign nations like the PIIGS, which cannot produce unlimited amounts of money, need to have a positive balance of payments. So the other question is: Why does the U.S., which is monetarily sovereign, want to increase exports?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–The “Pledge to America” Sham

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

The House Republicans have published a “Pledge to America.” It is a blatant, political sham. It includes:
–Make the Bush tax cuts permanent
–Give small businesses an additional tax deduction
–Fully fund missile defense
–Strengthen our Mexican border
–Reduce government spending to the 2008 levels
–Reduce the federal deficit

See anything wrong with these nice, safe political “pledges”? If you make the tax cuts permanent, give extra tax deductions to small business, fully fund missile defense and strengthen our border, there is no way to reduce spending to the 2008 levels and reduce the deficit — nor should we. Reduced spending (aka “money creation”) would doom us to an immediate return to recession. All six depressions and nearly every recession immediately have followed reductions in deficit growth. The reason: Federal deficits provide the money for economic growth.

Further, what spending would be cut? See: Federal Debt cuts for a list of right-wing recommended spending cuts and tax increases. Ask yourself which ones you like.

And, of course, nothing is said about Social Security and Medicare, which politicians will tell you (wrongly) require either tax increases or benefit cuts.

The Pledge also includes:
–Repeal the health-care law
–Ensure access for patients with pre-existing conditions

But, of course, ensuring access for patients with pre-existing conditions is one of the benefits of the health care law the House Republicans want to scuttle. The health care plan also contains such benefits as:
*Young people can remain on parents’ insurance until age 26
*No discrimination against children with pre-existing conditions
*No dropping people from coverage when they get sick
*No lifetime limits on coverage
*Free preventive care
*Increased ability to appeal decisions made by your health plan
And other benefits that slowly come on line between now and 2014. How many of these would you like to forgo if the health care plan is repealed?

And the Pledge includes:
–Tough sanctions against Iran (but no mention is made of Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where our troops actually are fighting and additionally, spending massive amounts of money.)

In short, the House Republican “Pledge” includes a potpourri of popular-sounding, though contradictory ideas. They want to spend more and spend less. They want to increase benefits and reduce them. They want to cut taxes and cut the deficit. Meanwhile, the public has been sold on the idea of “reduced federal deficits,” while not understanding what that really means. It means higher taxes and/or reduced federal benefits.

And it means recessions and depressions. But the politicians don’t tell you that.

Yes, the Pledge is a sham, but it will fool some of the people, and that might be enough.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–What is the American dream?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

What is the American dream? Does it focus on money, taxes, deficits, debt and government? Or does it focus on people?

Today’s oh-so-chic belief among debt hawks, mainstream economists, some Democrats, most Republicans, all Tea Partyers, the public and the media is: The federal government and the federal debt are too big. The government should get off our backs and allow our John Wayne, American, can-do spirit to take over. We don’t need big government; we would rather roll up our sleeves and do it ourselves. The main problems with big government are: It requires big taxes and it inefficiently does what we-the-people can do better.

Wrong on all counts. You who understand monetary sovereignty already are aware there is no relationship between federal spending and federal taxing. The government can spend endlessly, without taxes. You also understand that federal debt = money, which is necessary to grow our economy. And while big government can be massively inefficient (as can business, for that matter), there are several things big government can give us, that business cannot give us as well or at all.

In another post on this blog, I list some of the government funtions the right wing would like to eliminate. See: Debt hawk proposals.

I believe the American dream should include:

Universal health care: There is no reason every man, woman and child in America, citizen and non-citizen, ever should lack health care – and not just any health care, but the world’s best health care. Medicare not only should be expanded to pay more and for more procedures, but it should cover everyone. It should cover doctors, hospitals, drugs, home care and hospice. There simply is no reason why anyone should suffer health problems for lack of money.

Universal education opportunity: In other posts on this blog, I have made the case for paying students a salary for attending school.

Freedom from poverty: Poverty has many causes. The debt hawks act as though poverty always were the fault of the poor, and are reluctant to provide assistance, “lest it encourage laziness.” There are many reasons for poverty, and laziness is one of them, but surely not a primary one. Most poverty is thrust upon people who either cannot work or cannot find work. No one in America should go hungry. No one in America should be forced into homelessness.

The problem with the high rise, slum housing projects like notorious Cabrini Green in Chicago, was not the concept. The problems were crime and maintenance. Had these buildings been treated like condos, with plenty of police protection and 24-hour maintenance, they could have been as suitable as an upscale, high rise condo. However, the government built them, then walked away from them, and the criminals took over, while the buildings fell apart.

Retirement: It simply is a fact of life that few people are able to amass enough money during their working years, to support themselves during retirement, without a significant loss of life style. Social Security is a good, though inadequate, support system for our senior citizens, and now there is talk about raising the retirement age and reducing benefits in other ways.

FICA should be eliminated and Social Security benefits should be increased. Only big government can do this.

Security: Police and the army: Obviously the responsibility of big government, unless you believe in the vigilante system of justice or wish to fight the enemy with your own hands.

Safety in food, drugs, investments, environment: Another responsibility of big government, unless you prefer eating unsafe food, taking unsafe drugs, having unsafe banks and watching our environment degrade. If anything, more government help is needed, not less, as this most recent recession has demonstrated.

Transportation: Yet another responsibility of big government, unless you and your neighbors plan to take pick and shovel in hand, to build roads, airports, and public (oops, private) transportation.

There are many other irreplaceable functions of big government, and the point is, people who decry big government simply do not know what they are asking for. If anything, the government needs to get bigger, to take care of our unmet people needs. I agree with not wanting federal taxes. The government neither needs nor uses them. But the notion that government should “get off our backs” is misguided at best and suicidal at worst.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–The “unsustainable” federal debt lie.

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

You’ll read and hear a great deal now, before the November elections, about how to stimulate the economy. Nearly all of what you will read and hear is nonsense. I’ll quote from a typical article, this by David Kocieniewski, published in the New York Times on September 10, 2010:

“. . . economic research suggests that tax cuts, though difficult for politicians to resist in election season, have limited ability to bolster the flagging economy because they are essentially a supply-side remedy for a problem caused by lack of demand.”

Taxes remove money from the economy. Therefore, tax cuts prevent removal of money from the economy. Functionally, there is no difference between a tax cut and a spending increase. “Supply side” vs. “lack of demand” is economic gibberish.

“The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office . . . (said) tax cuts for high earners would have the smallest ‘bang for the buck,’ because wealthy Americans were more likely to save their money than spend it.”

This is the “first use” myth – the belief that dollars stop after their first use. What do wealthy Americans (or any Americans) do with money they save? They bank it and invest it. The money instantly goes to such investments as bank accounts, stocks, bonds, real estate, CDs, etc. In short, the money goes to other people and businesses, which borrow from those banks and own those stocks, bonds, real estate, CD, etc.

Then those people instantly either spend, invest or save the money, and it moves into other hands. With every step, a fraction of the money is spent. In one year, an individual dollar may pass through hundreds of hands, which adds up to a great deal of spending. Money never stops moving from hand to hand, a fact the politicians never seem to grasp.

“. . . direct payments to the unemployed and Social Security recipients or reducing the payroll taxes of workers . . . are considered politically untenable with many elected officials reluctant to even utter the word “stimulus” after the $787 billion stimulus.”

Why is “stimulus” a bad word? Because the recession was not completely cured by the stimuli used. Imagine your house is burning. The fire fighters pour water on it. The fire goes down, but not completely out. So the fire fighters stop. “Water” has become a bad word., because the fire still is smoldering. This is the logic that now rules our economy, while your house continues to burn.

“’. . . firms don’t hire based on tax breaks; they hire based on demand,’ said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. “So a lot of the tax breaks are likely to be rewarding people and companies for that they were going to do anyway.”

Mr. Williams, it’s not a matter of “rewarding people.” It’s a matter of not removing money from the economy. Personal taxes, business taxes, taxing the rich, taxing the poor – all taxes remove money from the economy. One dollar in taxes removes exactly one dollar from the economy, no matter who is taxed.

“(Predicted) surpluses have now become crushing deficits . . .”

Exactly, what is “crushing” about federal deficits? Has anyone noticed any federal difficulty servicing its debts? Today, we are talking about tax cuts, so who exactly is being crushed? This is classic debt-hawk mythology.

“The specter of a ballooning national debt has led even some of the early supporters of the cuts, including the former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, to advocate letting them expire.”

Does this man still retain any credibility? Isn’t he the guy who thought interest rate cuts would prevent the recession?

“‘We don’t think taxes ought to be increased in the middle of a recession for anyone,” (said) Senator Mitch McConnell. . .”

Exactly right.

“The Obama administration dismisses that argument, saying that nearly a third of the cost of the cuts — more than $700 billion during the next decade — would go to the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans.”

Are they ignorant or just playing politics – or both? They want to remove $700 billion from the economy, simply because the first people to touch it would be rich?? What about the second, third and fourth people to touch it?

One curious omission in the Obama plan is the tax cut proposal that many, including the Congressional Budget Office, believe would do the most to spur hiring: a payroll tax holiday. According to various news reports, Obama economic advisers passed on the idea because they feared it would be too expensive or would deprive Social Security and Medicare of crucial revenue. Administration officials declined to discuss their decision.

Page 149 of my book, FREE MONEY, asks the question, “Which taxes should be eliminated first.” The answer given: “Eliminate Social Security and Medicare taxes.” I discuss this further at “Ten Reasons to Eliminate FICA”

“Edward D. Kleinbard, former chief of staff of the bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, said the reliance on tax expenditures had distorted the budget process because it induced the public to overlook the fact that — unless they are accompanied by spending reductions — tax cuts have the same effect on the deficit as additional spending. . . . The debate has become so unrealistic it makes you want to scream.”

No, what really makes you want to scream is the ridiculous, unsubstantiated, totally wrong belief that deficits are a bad thing – so bad in fact, they are worse than recessions and slow economic recovery. So long as politicians do not learn that not only is deficit spending necessary, but an increasing rate of deficit spending is necessary, we will continue to have a recession on average, every five years.

Heaven save us from them.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity