–David Malpass: Less money = more money

An alternative to popular faith

On May 26, 2010, the Wall Street Journal published an article by David Malpass*, which began : ”When Ronald Reagan became president, the world had too much inflation, i.e. too much money chasing too few goods. Economists argued for higher taxes to sop up extra demand. Instead Reagan chose to cut tax rates to encourage more output and pursued an strong dollar policy. The result was more goods and better balance between the supply and demand for the dollar. The malaise ended 18 months into his administration, with inflation declining gradually for nearly 20 years. We now face a different, equally severe problem – too much government spending and debt.”

See anything wrong with this? Forget, for a moment, the inaccurate definition of inflation (“Too much . . . too little . . .” See: INFLATION ) and think about the overall substance of the paragraph. He begins at the right place (Cutting tax rates) and ends at the right place (encourages more output), but wanders aimlessly and illogically in between.

First, there is no way cutting tax rates can end inflation, simply because cutting tax rates increases the supply of money, and increasing the money supply never has been considered disinflationary by any economist. However, because cutting tax rates increased the money supply, this did encourage output. So, all right, Malpass may have been a bit confused, but at least he arrived at the right conclusion. More money = more production.

But then, in the article, he wanders off again, claiming: “[…] too much government spending and debt.” Huh? After WWII, the Reagan administration began the greatest debt growth in U.S. history, and it was this debt growth that created the mighty engine of economic growth in the 1980’s.

Malpass spends the rest of his article decrying the federal deficit and debt he helped create (“nosebleed levels,” “debt the size of the Grand Canyon”), and even throws in a couple of non sequiturs about bill length (“health care reform . . . a whopping 2,700 pages,” “financial reform . . . 2,000 pages”), while as usual with debt hawks, not providing any evidence whatsoever that federal debt and deficits have an adverse effect on our economy.

He claims the debt and deficit are “starving small business of capital” without telling how an increase in federal money creation could starve anyone of money, and he finishes with this telling statement: “[…] true leadership requires . . . reducing government spending substantially enough to convince the private sector to invest again.”

So, he wishes us to believe that if the government pays less money to soldiers, military equipment manufacturers, doctors, nurses, hospitals, road and bridge and dam builders, farmers, poor people, teachers, home builders, railroad personnel, security-related firms and to all the other businesses selling to the government, the private sector somehow will have more money for investment.

And once again, this is the way our leaders have managed to guide us into an average of one recession every five years.
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*David Malpass was deputy assistant treasury secretary in the Reagan administration, and is president of Encima global LLC, and a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in New York.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Even Paul Volcker doesn’t get it.

An alternative to popular faith

If even Paul Volcker doesn’t get it, how can the man in the street hope to understand — unless the man in the street is willing to look at the facts and Volcker isn’t?

“5/19/2001: STANFORD, California (Reuters) – Europe’s debt crisis shows the risks for the United States if it does not get its budget deficits under control, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said on Tuesday. ‘If we need any further illustration of the potential threats to our own economy from uncontrolled borrowing, we have only to look to the struggle to maintain the common European currency, to rebalance the European economy, and to sustain political cohesion of Europe,’ Volcker said.
[…]The U.S. budget deficit hit $1.4 trillion in 2009, roughly 10 percent of the economy. The White House projects the deficit this year will reach $1.6 trillion. The large deficits have evoked comparisons to Greece. But in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in California, Volcker said the United States differs from that country and other small European countries whose credit markets have come under speculative attack. Unlike those countries, the United States benefits from well-established currency and credit markets that are considered safe havens in times of financial turmoil.
[…]’There are serious questions, most immediately about the sustainability of our commitment to growing entitlement programs,’ said Volcker, who heads an outside panel of experts advising Obama on the economy”
.

Here is Paul Volcker, who of anyone, should know better, saying the difference between the U.S. and European countries is we have a well-established currency. No, Mr. Volcker, the difference is we are a monetarily sovereign nation and the EU countries are not. And that difference makes all the difference.

Somehow, the fact that we are running trillion-plus deficits, with none of the problems the EU nations are experiencing, doesn’t seem to penetrate Mr. Volcker’s skull. He has the debt hawk’s “It-hasn’t-happened-yet-but-I’m-sure-one-day-it-will” mentality, rather than the scientist’s “It-hasn’t-happened-yet.-I wonder-why” mentality.

Mr. Volcker, the reason “it” (inability to service national debts) happened to Greece, but not to the U.S., is simple: The U.S. has the unlimited ability to pay its bills, merely by crediting creditors’ bank accounts. EU rules prevent Greece from doing this. Either Mr. Volcker truly doesn’t understand the difference, which would be remarkable, or he has been paid to adopt a debt hawk agenda that forces him to close his eyes to basic fact.

Anyone who says Greece’s problems foreshadow similar problems for the U.S. either is ignorant of the facts or a liar.

And by the way, for those debt hawks who keep warning us that deficits cause inflation, we’re running the deficits, but: “5/19/2010: WASHINGTON (AFP) – US consumer prices fell for the first time in 13 months in April, the government said Wednesday as analysts warned of the risk of deflation in the world’s largest economy.” Isn’t it inconvenient the way facts seem to get in the way of wrong opinion?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–China buying bonds. Who cares.

An alternative to popular faith

5/17/2001: WASHINGTON (AFP) – China boosted its massive US Treasury bond holdings in March for the first time in six months as foreign buying of long-term US assets set a new record high, official data showed Monday.

So, as always, the debt hawks have been proven wrong. Here we are, running huge deficits probably for many years into the future, and despite debt hawk predictions, other nations continue to buy our bonds.

Why? Are they being charitable? Just nice guys? No.

The interest rate is good, considering the U.S. never will default, and we will fight inflation. In short, our bonds are a good investment (although as a monetarily sovereign nation, China does not need to profit from investment), which is the sole reason countries ever buy them.

Of course, none of this really matters, since the U.S. does not need to create and sell T-securities, nor should we. The U.S. can create dollars at will, without bonds. Creating and selling bonds does not help the economy, nor does it affect inflation or any other economic problem.

The notion that we need to borrow the money that we exclusively can create, is obsolete — as dead as the gold standard.

But, for a while, at least, we won’t have to listen to uninformed pundits worrying that nobody will buy our bonds.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–If you like gold, you’ll love . . .

An alternative to popular faith

I’m not sure why you like gold. It has minimum utility, and it is not backed by any government (unlike the dollar which is backed by the U.S. government). See: Fool’s Gold Or, perhaps you like paying for storage, insurance and shipping, as your generous contribution to the world’s economy. Or maybe you just like the shiny color.

But, for whatever the reasons, if you already own that virtually useless metal, how about owning some useful metals? Copper has a nice color as does nickel. Aluminum can be shiny like silver. You might enjoy them more, and you still would have the pleasure of paying for storage, insurance and shipping, along with an even better hedge against inflation than gold.


Gold up about 180%


Copper up about 1200%


Nickel up about 1500%


Aluminum up about 700%

Gold is a “greater fool” play, and one day someone will point out that the gold emperor has no clothes. Then, the price will drop like a useless gold bar, and the gold bubble will take its rightful place among other those notable bubbles for tulip bulbs, beanie babies and real estate.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity