Tag: money

–What are the best recession/depression investments?

Those, who do not understand the differences between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty, do not understand economics.
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It looks like Congress and the President, with the approval of the media, old-line economists and the voting public, are determined to reduce the deficit. Historically, deficit reduction has resulted in recessions and depressions. Federal deficits are the government’s method for adding money to the economy, and economic growth requires money growth.

So, we will cause ourselves a recession or a depression. I’m resigned to the fact that the vast majority doesn’t believe this, so I suppose I should enjoy the pleasant irony of seeing all the fact doubters lose their money, their jobs and their homes in the years to come.

But I don’t, partly because my own children and grandchildren will be hurt by the mess Congress is creating. I’ll be hurt, too – unless I can think of some recession-proof investments. While it seems nothing can prevent the out-of-control freight train known as “Congress” from destroying America, I’d like to protect my own family as best I can.

Many of you are investors. Some may know far more about stocks, bonds etc than I do. So I ask you this:

Given that we will have deficit reduction, which absolutely, positively will cause a recession or a depression (depending on how big the deficit reduction will be), what are the best investments to make today? Cash may be safest, but there’s no income. Treasuries are safe too, but again, there is scant income. Its a dilemma. What do you suggest?

Thank you for your help.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com


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No nation can tax itself into prosperity, nor grow without money growth. Monetary Sovereignty: Cutting federal deficits to grow the economy is like applying leeches to cure anemia.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

–How to fight inflation and how not to.

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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I know this is a strange time to talk about fighting inflation. Recently we struggled up from a minus inflation (aka “deflation”) and now are at a puny 1% level. But too often, when I say that federal deficit spending should increase, a debt-hysteric concern expressed to me, is not just inflation, but the typical debt-hawk exaggeration: hyperinflation!

The debt-hawks seem to be the kind of folks who, upon seeing a starving child, would not feed that child for fear the food would cause obesity. Today, our economy is starved for money, but the debt hawks fear monetary obesity (aka “inflation”) and they warn us of wheelbarrows full of money. They give silly speeches about what they term “fiscal prudence” and what I term, “starving the baby.”

So as long as we must face debt hysteria, and the hysteria has to do with a non-existent though dreaded inflation, we might as well talk about preventing and curing inflation. Inflation is the loss in value of money compared to the value of goods and services.

So, there are two fundamental methods for curing inflation: Reduce the supply of money or increase the demand for money. Both methods increase the value of money vs the value of goods and services. (In theory, increasing the supply of goods and services or decreasing the demand for goods and services also would work, but there is no known method for accomplishing this without changing the money supply.)

Ideally, any anti-inflationary activity should be effective, quick to activate, quick to take effect, incremental, easy to rescind and not damaging to the economy. But while tax increases remove money from the economy, and so can be effective, they fail all the other tests. They are highly political; They are slow to pass through Congress. They take effect slowly, because taxes are collected slowly. They cannot be passed and implemented incrementally. They are difficult to undo. And they damage the economy. The require answers to difficult questions: Exactly which taxes should be increased? By how much? Should we have a tax increase during a stagflation? How do we calibrate an incremental tax increase?

Compare this approach with another approach: Interest rate increases. Interestingly, interest rate increases have both pro-inflation and anti-inflation effects. Pro inflation: Increase in business costs and increase in the money supply due to increased federal interest payments. Anti-inflation: Increase in the demand for money vs the demand for non-money.

On balance, the anti-inflation effects are stronger. One hint is this graph: graph 1that seems to indicate interest rate increases are followed about one year later by inflation decreases.

The other hint is the Fed’s ongoing success in controlling inflation despite massive increases in the money supply. Interest rate increases actually work.

Interest rate increases can be done quickly and in small or large increments — just what is needed for inflation control. And contrary to popular faith, high interest rates do not negatively affect GDP growth. See: Interest

In summary:
–We are nowhere near inflation
–We can control inflation by raising interest rates
–High interest rates do not negatively affect GDP growth

We can and should feed the starving economy without letting unfounded worries about our ability to prevent or cure the economy’s obesity, prevent us from saving the child.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–How the Ignorant Murder the Innocent: Debt-Hysteria Continues to Destroy America

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand monetary sovereignty, do not understand economics. Cutting the federal deficit is the most ignorant and damaging step the federal government could take. It ranks ahead of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff.
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How the Ignorant Murder the Innocent: Debt-Hysteria Continues to Destroy America

“NBC, msnbc.com and news services 12/1/10

“Extended unemployment benefits for nearly 2 million Americans begin to run out Wednesday, cutting off a steady stream of income and guaranteeing a dismal holiday season for people already struggling with bills they cannot pay.

“Unless Congress changes its mind, benefits that had been extended up to 99 weeks will end this month.

“Congress has let jobless benefits lapse twice already this year as Republicans insist the cost — $160 billion in the last fiscal year — be offset by cuts elsewhere to prevent the nation’s $13.8 trillion debt from growing further.

“Congressional opponents of extending the benefits beyond this month say fiscal responsibility should come first. Republicans in the House and Senate, along with a handful of conservative Democrats, say they’re open to extending benefits, but not if it means adding to the $13.8 trillion national debt.”

Ah, yes. “Fiscal responsibility.” Please someone remind me again; why did we go off the gold standard and become monetarily sovereign? What was the purpose of having the unlimited ability to create money? What exactly does “fiscal responsibility” mean? And what about human responsibility?

“‘I am not searching for a job, I am begging for one,’ said Felicia Robbins, 30, as she prepared to move out of a homeless shelter in Pensacola, Fla., where she and her five children have been living. She is using the last of her cash reserves, about $500, to move into a small, unfurnished rental home.”

The debt-hawks will tell you that unemployment benefits merely extend the time for lazy people to sit home, collecting checks. Of course, the Senators and Representatives collect their generous paychecks on time, so why worry about the “little” people?

If you are concerned about the gap between the rich and the poor, I remind you that this unnecessary, cruel action takes money from the poorest of us, increasing the gap.

As always, I urge you to contact your Congressperson, and try to educate him/her, before America reenters recession.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind me of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–Elect me and I will build America

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Since this is the season for campaign promises, here are mine. When you elect me, I promise to: (O.K., I’m not running for office, but this is what I would do.)

Reform Congress

I will work to end the Senate filibuster rule. I find the notion of one person being able to thwart the will of Congress and the American people, and to prevent the appointment of federal judges and other federal personnel, to be repugnant. It’s a bad rule.
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Improve Social Security and Medicare

1. I will end FICA. This is the worst tax in America for reasons explained at FICA . Briefly, it’s a regressive tax that discourages hiring and discourages spending, and has no function. The federal government does not use FICA taxes.

2. I will reduce the retirement age back to 65 (early retirement at 62).

3. I will stop taxing Social Security benefits. Only a government mentality could pay people benefits, then tax the benefits. It makes as much sense to tax SS benefits as it would to tax Medicare benefits, i.e. no sense at all.

4. I will pay everyone, man or woman, married or single, who begins to claim benefits at age 65, the same Social Security benefit, regardless of prior earnings. Under the current system, the people who need benefits most are paid the least.

5. I will increase Medicare payments to doctors and hospitals to equal the current levels paid by private insurance companies. The current Medicare payment levels discourage doctors from accepting Medicare, and discourage young people from entering the medical profession.

6. I will include long-term care as part of Medicare. Current long-term care policies as too expensive for lower income people.

7. I will eliminate all “donut holes” and other similar limitations from Medicare Part D (drug coverage). I will cover all drugs, generic or branded, from day 1.
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Rescue the States, Counties and Cities

The primary reason the states, counties and cities are in such bad shape: They are not Monetarily Sovereign. Mathematically, inflation and population growth make long-term survival on taxes alone, impossible for any monetarily non-sovereign government. Such governments must have money coming in from outside, via exports and/or federal assistance. I will pay each state $10,000 per person in the first year, then $5,000 inflation-adjusted each year thereafter.
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Cut Income Taxes

I will cut income taxes from the bottom up. Each year, I will increase the standard deduction by $10,000. At the end of the first decade, the standard deduction would be $100,000, and the vast majority of taxpayers will file their taxes on a postcard. (This will impact charities, all of which except faith-based, should be supported by the government, anyway.)

I will eliminate business taxes. The economy is business. Taxing business = taxing the economy, exactly the opposite of what a growing economy needs.
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Support Education

I will pay all students a salary for the job of attending school. (See: Salary 1 and Salary 2 and Salary 3 ).
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Spend Liberally on Research and Infrastructure

I will offer federal support to a myriad of science research and development projects – medical, physical, military, energy – together with rebuilding our aging roads, bridges and dams. Under my watch, we will go back to the moon and on to Mars.
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Raise Interest Rates

If any debt hawks have read this far, they undoubtedly are foaming at the mouth about the federal debt being “unsustainable” (nonsensical for a monetarily sovereign nation) and inflation. There is no post-gold standard relationship between federal deficits and inflation, (See: Inflation) And federal deficit spending reduces unemployment (See: Unemployment ) there is a distant point, when federal spending could be sufficient to cause inflation. So, I will take peremptory action to increase the value of money, by increasing interest rates.

This will strengthen the dollar, providing us with more imports of better goods and services at lower prices. (See: Stronger dollar )

Higher rates also will be stimulative, as it will force the federal government to pay more interest on its debts, thereby adding money to the economy. See: Interest

On a related subject, I will increase FDIC to $1 million, to protect more Americans’ savings.

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So that’s a good start for my first year in office. What do you think? Do I have your vote?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity