More proof that the Internation Monetary Fund is a group of fools and con men

No sooner do I publish, “Historical BULLSHIT Claims the Federal Debt Is a ‘Ticking Time Bomb’” than this IMF article pops up:

World’s $100 Trillion Fiscal TIMEBOMB Keeps Ticking
Story by Craig Stirling

(Bloomberg) — Even before global finance chiefs fly into Washington over the next few days, they’ve been urged in advance by the International Monetary Fund to tighten their belts.

Two weeks ahead of a potentially era-defining US election, and with the world’s recent inflation crisis barely behind it, ministers and central bankers gathering in the nation’s capital face intensifying calls to get their fiscal houses in order while they still can.

Debt Loads Are Set to Expand Globally |
© Bloomberg
The fund, whose annual meetings begin there on Monday, has already pointed to some of the themes it hopes to press home with a barrage of projections and studies on the global economy in coming days.

The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Wednesday will feature a warning that public debt levels are set to reach $100 trillion this year, driven by China and the US.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in a speech on Thursday, stressed how that mountain of borrowing is weighing on the world.

Debt Loads Are Set to Expand Globally |
How to lie with facts. Use meaningless numbers and compare non-comparable things.

Before we continue, let me show you the graphs showing the debt/GDP ratios of several countries. Look at the graphs and tell me what is misleading about them.

The graphs at the right have two main problems:

1. They combine two completely different things: Monetarily Sovereign nations and monetarily non-sovereign nations.

A Monetarily Sovereign nation has the infinite ability to create its own sovereign currency. It never can run short of money to pay its bills.

The U.S. cannot run short of dollars. China cannot run short of yuan. Japan cannot run short of yen, and the UK cannot run short of pounds. These nations are Monetarily Sovereign.

They all can pay any debt denominated in their sovereign currency, merely by tapping a computer key.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

By contrast, Germany, France, and Italy are monetarily non-sovereign. They all use the euro, and can run short of euros to pay their debts. They must borrow from the European Union (EU) when they run short of euros.

The G-7 graph is a mongrelization of Monetarily Sovereign and monetarily non-sovereign nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and thus is useless and misleading.

2. The debt/Gross Domestic Product ratio, which is the subject of the graphs is meaningless, though it often has been used by those who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty.

Take a look at this worldwide comparison of debt/GDP and see if you can find any evaluative or predictive purpose for the ratio.

Here are the ten nations with the supposedly “worst” (highest) ratios:

Debt to GDP Ratio (%); Japan 264%, Venezuela 241%, Sudan 186%, Greece 173%, Singapore 168%, Eritrea 164%, Lebanon 151%, Italy 142%, United States 129%, Cape Verde 127%

Japan and the U.S. are ranked worst, along with Sudan, Greece, Lebanon, and Cape Verde.

Who would you prefer to lend to, Japan or Cape Verde? The United States or Sudan?

Now, here are the ten nations with the “best” (lowest) debt/GDP ratios: Brunei 2.1%, Kuwait 2.9%, Cayman Islands 4.5%. Afghanistan 7.4%. Turkmenistan 8%, Azerbaijan 11.7%, Burundi 14.5%, DR Congo 14.6%, Russia 17.2%, Palestine 18.5%

That’s right. According to the IMF, those are the financially safest places in the world.

The debt/GDP ratio is akin to a butter/butterfly ratio. Completely and utterly useless, yet here is the equally useless IMF shrieking about it.

This is what the IMF says about itself:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization that aims to ensure the stability of the international monetary system. Its primary purposes are to:

1. Foster collaboration among countries to achieve global monetary stability.
2. Promoting exchange rate stability
3. Support economic policies that promote growth and reduce poverty.
4, Offer loans and financial aid to member countries facing balance of payments problems or economic crises.
5. Provide economic and financial advice.

It does none of those, except #4, which it uses like a loan shark, extorting unreasonable terms from weak countries. And really, would you take “economic and financial advice” from a group that doesn’t know the difference between Monetary Sovereignty and monetary non-sovereignty.

It is like taking medical advice from a quack doctor who doesn’t know the difference between heartburn and sunburn.

Continuing with the article:

“Our forecasts point to an unforgiving combination of low growth and high debt — a difficult future,” she said. “Governments must work to reduce debt and rebuild buffers for the next shock — which will surely come, and maybe sooner than we expect.”

For a Monetarily Sovereign nation “high debt” generally means the government is pumping more growth dollars into the economy. Lack of debt growth leads to recessions:

A decline in debt growth (red line) causes recessions (vertical gray bars) which are cured by an increase in debt growth.

Thus, the IMF’s “cut debt” advice is diametrically wrong, like taking blood from a patient to cure his anemia.

Some finance ministers may get further reminders even before the week is over.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has already faced an IMF warning of the risk of a market backlash if debt doesn’t stabilize. Tuesday marks the last release of public finance data before her Oct. 30 budget.

The UK tax office is taking a tougher approach to clawing back debts, insolvency specialists say, a bid to squeeze £5 billion ($6.5 billion) in extra revenue.

The above simple proves that many government economists are as financially ignorant as the IMF economists.

We have the same problem in the U.S., with so-called experts claiming our federal debt (which isn’t “federal” and isn’t “debt”) is a “ticking time bomb.” Total bullshit.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“For all the talk of black holes, the overall effect of Reeves budget will be a policy that’s looser, not tighter, relative to the previous government’s plans.”

As it should be if the UK wants economic growth. If the UK is foolish enough to listen to the IMF and cut debt (which means take dollars out of the economy), it will have a recession.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings has slated Friday for a possible report on France, which faces intense investor scrutiny at present. With its assessment one step higher than major competitors, markets will watch for any cut in the outlook.

France, being monetarily non-sovereign, does risk it’s debt being too high to service. The EU, which is Monetarily Sovereign, could solve France’s financial problems by simply giving them euros. That would cost European taxpayers nothing, and would prevent debt from being an issue.

As for the biggest borrowers of all, the glimpse of the IMF’s report already published contains a grim admonishment: your public finances are everyone’s problem.

True for monetarily non-sovereign nations; not true for Monetarily Sovereign nations.

“Elevated debt levels and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy in systemically important countries, such as China and the United States, can generate significant spillovers in the form of higher borrowing costs and debt-related risks in other economies,” the fund said.

We’ll end with the final dollop of bullshit from the IMF. China’s and the US’s increase in debt means other nations are being enriched by dollars and yuan. The more these two governments spend on foreign goods and services, the better all the other governments’ finances will be.

As usual, the fools and con men of the IMF offer diametrically the opposite of good advice.

Here comes the IMF to demonstrate its incompetence

The sole purpose of government is to improve and protect the people’s lives.

Why else would we, the people, turn over control of our lives to a government?

Why else would we. the people, give our precious money and limited power to a small group that tells them what they are allowed to do and not allowed to do?

But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has different purposes, according to their site:The International Monetary Fund

1. Furthering international monetary cooperation for consultation and collaboration on international monetary problems.
2. Facilitating the expansion and balanced growth of international trade, and to contributing thereby to the promotion and maintenance of high levels of employment, real income and productive resources.
3. Promoting orderly exchange arrangements among members, and to avoiding competitive exchange depreciation.
4. The elimination of foreign exchange restrictions which hamper the growth of world trade.
5. Making the resources of the Fund temporarily available to members to correct maladjustments in their balance of payments without measures destructive of prosperity.
6. Shortening the duration and lessening the degree of disequilibrium in the international balances of payments of memberss

Nowhere are improving and protecting the people’s lives mentioned. It’s all about the governments and their money.

That is why the IMF never met an austerity it didn’t love.

It almost always recommends some form of austerity as a cure for what it deems “excessive” government debt. 

Here’s what austerity means:Is Your State One of the Worst for Paying Taxes? | The Fiscal Times

  1. Reducing Expenditure: Governments may cut spending on public services, welfare benefits, and salaries for public sector workers. This can include limiting the terms of unemployment benefits, reducing government employees’ wages, or cutting programs for the poor.

  2. Increasing Revenue: This can be achieved by raising taxes, targeting tax fraud and evasion, or privatizing government-owned businesses to raise capital.

  3. Economic Impact: Austerity measures act like contractionary fiscal policy, which can slow economic growth. This is because they reduce the amount of money circulating in the economy, which can lead to lower consumer spending and investment.

  4. Debt Management: The primary goal of austerity is to reduce the risk of default on government debt. High levels of debt can lead to creditors demanding higher interest rates, making it more expensive for a country to borrow money.

Cut benefits, increase taxes, slow growth, and ensure the government pays its obligations to other governments. That is about as pro-government and “non-people” as you can get. 

It can be said sweetly and nobly as President John Kennedy with his “Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country” speech.

Ah, those lofty words that sound so patriotic and easy on the ear, but are a prescription for an impoverished nation living under a dictatorship.

I prefer to ask politicians, “What will you do for us in return for your salary, lifestyle, and the prestige we have given you?”

What would you do if you had infinite money? - Quora
Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency.”

The IMF functions as an employee of governments and not of the people.

Based on history and its own statements, the IMF may have a different maxim: The sole purpose of people is to improve and protect their government.

That is true in America. Here, the federal government has infinite money but still demands taxes from the people.

Here, politicians decry federal deficits, though the government can pay any invoice merely by pressing computer keys.

Here, our government pretends to struggle with funding benefits for the poor, though it has no trouble funding tax breaks for the rich.

“Improving and protecting the people’s lives” seems to be the last thing the IFM and U.S. politicians worry about.

Soaring U.S. debt poses risks to global economy, IMF warns
Story by David J. Lynch

U.S. government budget deficits and an escalating debt load pose “a growing risk” to the global economy, marring an otherwise stellar economic performance, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Translation: The federal government is putting more dollars into people’s pockets than it is taking out, and as a result, the economy is doing great.

The “growing risk” is that somehow the poor will discover the government’s infinite ability to fund benefits, and demand more and better.

Ballooning US debt a ticking time bomb for world economy - Global Times
The “ticking time bomb” of federal debt has been ticking since 1940. Still ticking.

The United States over the next several years faces “a pressing need” to reduce its debt burden, which could require broad-based income tax increases and cuts in popular entitlement programs, the fund said at the conclusion of its annual review of the U.S. economy.

Translation: This “pressing need” often has been described as a “ticking time bomb,” which has been “ticking” for eighty-four years without exploding. 

Our Monetarily Sovereign (MS) government has infinite dollars.

Why then does the IMF want, the government unnecessarily to take more money from the people and cut benefits to those who need them.

The required fiscal adjustment will mean “difficult political decisions over the course of multiple years,” the fund said, warning that an unchecked rise in debt could eventually sap U.S. growth and snowball into global financial distress.

Translation: “Difficult political decisions” are those that screw the people while sounding like the IMF is helping them.

For instance, raising Medicare, Social Security, and unemployment taxes with the false explanation that these taxes are needed to “save” the benefits.

These decisions are difficult, but we politicans, being heroic, are ready to sacrifice your lives to make the rich richer.

The rise in debt stimulated U.S. growth and “snowballed” into the people’s financial success. So, cut the debt.

“Now is a good time,” said Kristalina Georgieva, the fund’s managing director. “The U.S. economy is very strong, and it is in good times where you can do more to prepare yourself for risks in the future.”

Translation: The U.S. economy is very strong because the government has increased spending.

Therefore, now is a good time to weaken it by taking money out of the economy. GDP=Federal and Non-federal Spending + Net Exports.

You can be sure that if the economy was suffering, Ms. Georgieva would offer the same prescription: Austerity. It’s what they always recommend, regardless of the circumstances.

President Biden has ruled out at least one of the fund’s suggested remedies: Higher taxes on people making less than $400,000 a year.

Translation: The IMF wants to take dollars out of the pockets of the poorer people.

Apparently, these people should ask not what the country can do for them but what they can do for the rich people.

But debt aside, the IMF statement praised the U.S. economy for “a remarkable performance” in recent years.

Inflation has largely been brought under control without the sharp increase in unemployment that many economists had expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains above expectations and is expected to continue.

Translation: We, the IMF, are completely clueless about how high levels of federal deficit spending can cause these remarkable outcomes, but whatever the reason, we want it stopped.

“The U.S. is the only G-20 economy whose GDP level now exceeds the pre-pandemic level. This is good for the U.S. and it is good for the global economy,” Georgieva told reporters.

Translation: The federal debt (that isn’t federal and isn’t debt — See: National Debt ) is up, and all this good stuff is happening. We of the IMF don’t understand why, and we want it stopped.

Despite the U.S. debt bulge, financial markets remain untroubled. The return that the government must offer to entice investors to purchase 10-year treasury securities hovers around 4.2 percent, below rates that were typical before the Great Recession.

Translation: The IMF is shocked that financial markets are untroubled by sales and profit growth.

Amazon.com: deAO Kids Steering Wheel for Backseat with Key Pretend Driving  Simulated Steering Wheel Toy with Light and Music Gifts for Kids Toddlers  Blue : Automotive
Jerome Powell: “Look how well I’m driving.”

The U.S. government doesn’t really don’t care how many treasury securities are purchased.

Those dollars mean nothing to a government that has infinite dollars.

The government sets the interest rate at any level the Fed chooses.

It’s what the Fed does to make people think it is driving the car when, in fact, it is just going along for the ride.

The U.S. economy also is attracting an increasing share of global capital, according to Georgieva.

Before the pandemic, 18 percent of funds invested outside national borders was placed in the United States.

Today, the U.S. share of mobile finance is 33 percent, she said.

Translation: The so-called “federal debt” that bothers the IMF doesn’t seem to bother knowledgeable investors. 

Debts and deficits will be an early challenge for the next president. In early 2025, Congress must lift the statutory debt ceiling or see the United States default on its debt.

Lawmakers also must decide by the end of 2025 to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts or allow them to expire, thus increasing taxes on most Americans.

Translation: Debts and deficits will grow the economy, but politicians, economists, the media and IMF will argue that the debt and deficits should be reduced. It’s what the very rich want us to say.

In April, as part of a separate review, IMF officials chided the United States for government deficits that stimulated the economy, saying they effectively made it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Translation: Deficits grew the economy and enriched the private sector, but how is the Fed going to justify its existence if it can’t manipulate interest rates?

The IMF’s slogan should be: The sole purpose of people is to protect and improve their government and the rich people.

On Thursday, citing potential upside risks to inflation, the IMF said the Fed should wait to cut interest rates until “at least late 2024.”

Translation: Otherwise, it will be too easy for those who aren’t rich to buy cars, houses, refrigerators, furniture, and every other product whose price is increased by high interest rates (i.e., all products).

Thursday’s IMF statement is just the latest warning on the U.S. debt picture.

On Tuesday, the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development said that adding debt at a time of higher interest rates will limit the ability of the United States to meet other needs, including defense, an aging population, and future economic shocks.

Translation: We have no idea what this means. The U.S. government has proved it has infinite money to meet all needs, including defense, an aging population, and future economic shocks. But, the IMF felt compelled to make a statement, however wrong.

Years of repeated tax cuts have narrowed the government’s revenue base at a time when it faces escalating spending commitments for programs such as Social Security and Medicare, as well as rising interest charges, the OECD said.

Translation: Federal taxes do not fund federal spending. Even if it collected zero taxes, it could continue spending forever.

But then, it couldn’t take dollars from the poor for social benefits or just limit those benefits altogether.

That is not what our real patrons, the rich, want.

As a share of the economy, corporate income tax payments are now less than half what they were in 1967, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Interest expenses on the national debt over the same period have doubled to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product.

Translation: The government is taking comparatively less money from corporations, and adding more money to the economy in interest. This is working spectacularly, so it must be stopped???

The OECD, a group of more than three dozen advanced economies, called for a “sustained but steady multiyear” budget effort to curb debt.

Only Italy, Greece and Japan have higher gross debt-to-GDP ratios, the OECD said in its annual assessment of the U.S. economy.

Translation: Because the IMF is are clueless about the fundamental differences between a Monetarily Sovereign (MS) government and a monetarily non-sovereign government, it lumps Italy, Greece, and Japan into our comparison.

Italy and Greece, not being MS, must rely on the (EU) European Union to provide them with money. Japan, being MS, doesn’t need any help.

Government debt held by the public, which excludes Treasury securities in the Social Security Trust Fund, is equal to 99 percent of total U.S. output and is expected to hit 122 percent in 2034, according to the CBO.

Translation: The useless Debt/GDP ratio is the phony number of last resort for those who don’t understand MS; therefore, the IMF tries to fool you with it.

And as for that Social Security Trust Fund, it isn’t a trust fund.

Many economists say the government’s growing debt burden must be addressed with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases.

Stabilizing the debt relative to the size of the economy is “a really important goal,” Jared Bernstein, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said at the Brookings Institution this week.

Someone please tell Mr. Bernstein that federal debt is two things, neither of which has any meaning relative to the size of our economy (which is GDP).

The two meanings of federal debt are:

  1. The historical net total of federal deficits — the difference between federal spending and federal taxes. Simply add all the spending the government has ever done and subtract all the income the federal government has ever received. That’s the debt.
  2. The current total of all outstanding Treasury Securities (T-bills, T-notes, T-bonds, etc.)

With regard to #1, the “debt” would have some meaning if the federal government was monetarily non-sovereign: it doesn’t use a currency it issues. This resembles city, county, and state governments, as well as businesses, you, and me.

It’s relevant because we monetarily non-sovereign types might have difficulty paying all those outstanding bills. The Monetarily Sovereign U.S. government has no such difficulty because it has the infinite ability to create dollars.

Regarding #2, Treasury Securities are accounts wholly owned by the depositors. The government doesn’t owe the contents of those accounts because it never takes ownership of the money. It just holds the dollars for safekeeping.

This resembles bank safe deposit boxes. The contents are not part of bank debt because the bank never owns them.

By contrast, city, county, and state notes and bonds are in accounts owed by the respective cities, counties, and states, which rely on income to pay them off.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell; MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell

……………………………………………………………………..

The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY