–The federal deficit debate

An alternative to popular faith

THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
A federal surplus is more prudent than a federal deficit

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
That is the popular faith.* But, a large economy has more money than does a small economy. Therefore, a growing economy requires a growing supply of money. Federal deficit spending is the prime source of that money. All six recessions, since the end of the gold standard (1971), have been introduced with a surplus or a reduction in deficit growth. All six were cured with an increase in deficit growth. When we have insufficient money growth we have recessions or depressions. The Great Depression immediately followed years of surpluses, and ultimately was cured with deficits.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Large deficits are unsustainable. The interest payments alone will grow to a point where they occupy the entire federal budget.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Unlike you, me, cities, states and corporations, the federal government uniquely has the power to create unlimited amounts of money, a power it gave itself in 1971. To service a deficit of any size, including interest payments, the government merely creates money ad hoc, by crediting the bank accounts of creditors.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
We cannot keep borrowing forever. Foreign nations will refuse to keep lending us money to support our profligate ways.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
The government does not need foreign nations to lend us money. The federal government borrows by creating unlimited amounts of T-securities from thin air, backed only by full faith and credit, then selling them for the money it previously created. The government just as easily and safely could create money from thin air, also backed by full faith and credit. This would eliminate the borrowing step as well as all concerns about debt. Federal borrowing is a relic of the gold standard days.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
The fact that the government borrows is prima facie evidence that the government needs to borrow.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Federal borrowing is a relic of the gold standard years, when the government did not have the unlimited ability to create money. Today, borrowing has zero advantages over direct money creation, and many disadvantages, not the least of which is the mistaken belief
federal debts are a problem.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Federal deficits increase the money supply, which reduces the value of money and causes inflation.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
The value of money is based on both supply and demand. Increasing the demand for money prevents/cures inflation. Demand is determined by risk and reward. The reward for owning money is its utility as an exchange vehicle and interest rates. To fight inflation, the government increases the reward by raising interest rates. Since 1971, there has been no relationship between inflation and federal deficits.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Raising interest rates to fight inflation will hurt business and the economy.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Since 1971, there has been no relationship between interest rates and economic growth. Low rates have not stimulated (as Greenspan and Bernanke have learned); high rates have not inhibited. The reason: For every borrower there is a lender. What helps one, hurts the other. It’s zero sum. For example, high rates help holders of CDs, bonds, T-securities. Also, changes in interest rates represent minuscule changes in business costs. Additionally, high rates have had a slightly stimulative effect, because they’ve forced the federal government to pump more interest money into the economy.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Our children and grandchildren will pay for today’s deficits through higher taxes in the future.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
The government pays its debts by marking a credit in the bank accounts of its creditors, and marking a debit in its own balance sheets. No physical money changes hands. The government can do this endlessly. It does not use tax money to pay its bills. When taxes are received, the government debits the payers’ bank accounts and credits its own balance sheets. Effectively, the tax money is destroyed. The government has no vault or fund of money. It merely makes electronic notations. That is why today’s taxpayers do not pay for the massive Reagan deficits. There is no historical relationship between tax rates and federal deficits.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
There is no such thing as a free lunch. One day, someone will have to pay for today’s federal spending.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Federal money is, in fact, a free lunch to the federal government. It pays its bills by crediting vendors’ bank accounts. This costs the government nothing other than a few electrons sent to the banks’ records. Nothing collateralizes our money other than full faith and credit.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
When the debt exceeds the value of all government assets, the government will be bankrupt.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Federal assets, such as the Grand Canyon and Washington Monument do not collateralize our money. As a holder of U.S. bonds, China is a creditor to the government, but China cannot lay claim to such federal assets as Lake Michigan or the Supreme Court building. China’s collateral is the U.S. government’s full faith and credit, nothing more.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
I have to pay my bills and be careful with my borrowing. Otherwise I will go bankrupt. The government is you and me. It must do the same as we do.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
The government is not you and me. It collects taxes; we pay taxes. It can create money at will; we cannot. As a sovereign nation, with the unlimited ability to create money, America cannot go bankrupt. The belief that the government is the same as its citizens gives rise to the myths about deficits.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
As our population ages, and more people collect Social Security, the program will go bankrupt unless taxes are increased or benefits decreased.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Social security is a federal agency, much like the Department of Defense, Congress, the Supreme Court and 100+ other federal agencies. No federal agency ever has or ever will go bankrupt, simply because the federal government itself, having the unlimited power to create money, cannot go bankrupt.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Technically, the government already is bankrupt, since it doesn’t have the money to pay all its debts, and must rely on future tax collections.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
The government has no money, yet doesn’t rely on tax collections. It pays its debts merely by changing the numbers in its creditors bank accounts. The government acts like a football scoreboard. When a team scores a touchdown, the scoreboard “owes” it six points. No one asks, “Where is the scoreboard going to get six points?” This is explained in detail at http://www.moslereconomics.com/2009/12/10/7-deadly-innocent-frauds/
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Many countries – Germany, Italy, Brazil et al – have suffered from hyper-inflation caused by excessive money printing.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
Each instance of hyper-inflation has been caused by unique circumstances, but generally, hyper-inflations have been caused by governments not addressing the root causes of their inflations. They mistakenly printed more money in response to inflation. This exacerbated modest inflations into hyper-inflations.
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THE WELL-KNOWN, ANTI-DEFICIT POSITION
Most prominent economists believe the deficit and debt are too large.

THE LITTLE-KNOWN, PRO-DEFICIT POSITION
That is exactly the way scientific progress is made. The vast majority of prominent scientists have a belief. Then a minority (sometimes just one person) proposes a new hypothesis, which at first is denounced. Eventually the vast majority begins to change its mind, and the new hypothesis becomes the majority. Then the process repeats.

*Faith is belief without evidence. Science is belief from evidence.

–Federal Debt/GDP– A Useless Ratio

An alternative to popular faith

Lately, we’ve heard a great deal about the federal debt/GDP ratio.

The Investopedia says, “The debt-to-GDP ratio indicates the country’s ability to pay back its debt.” This ratio often is quoted in stories predicting the demise of America if federal debt continues to rise and especially if the debt ever were to exceed 100% of GDP. (Since we are about to hit that level, and we still exist, the debt hawks now have moved the time of Armageddon too 200%. But Japan is there already, so maybe move it to 300%?)

This nonsense ratio is so important, the European Union once required, as a condition of membership, the ratio of gross government debt to GDP not to exceed 60% at the end of the preceding fiscal year.

What would you say if I told you the total number of hits the Chicago Cubs made in 2008 is 47% of the total number of runs the Cubs have scored in all of their 100+ year history?

You might well say, “Huh? What does one thing have to do with the other? One is hits; the other is runs. One is 100+ years; the other is one year. It’s classic apples vs oranges.” And you would be right.

Yet, that is exactly what the debt/GDP ratio represents. Federal “debt” is the net amount of outstanding T-securities created in the history of America. The GDP is the total dollar value of goods and services creating this year. The two are unrelated. The federal government does not use GDP to service its debt.

Actually, federal “debt” is not even related to federal “deficits” by function, though the two are related by law. During the gold standard days, the Treasury was required by law to issue T-securities in the amount of the federal deficit.

It was necessary then, because the Treasury could only produce money in the amount of gold reserves. In 1971, we went off the gold standard, which gave the Treasury the unlimited ability to create money.

The creation of T-securities no longer is necessary; it is a relic of the gold standard days. A government with the unlimited ability to create dollars does not need to borrow those dollars.

The government “borrows” by creating T-securities out of thin air, backed only by full faith and credit. Purchasers of T-securities instruct their banks to debit their checking accounts and credit their T-security accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank.

No dollars are created or destroyed.

Then, to “pay off” its debt, the process is reversed: The government merely transfers dollars from T-security accounts (essentially bank savings accounts) back to checking accounts.

Again, no dollars are created or destroyed.

Today, Japan’s ratio is above 200%. The U.S. ratio is near 100%.

monetary sovereignty

By contrast, Russia’s, Chile’s, Libya’s, Qatar’s and others are below 10% – which tells you nothing about their economies, but says a great deal about the meaningless Debt/GDP ratio.

As for GDP indicating “the country’s ability to pay back its debt,” again we have apples/oranges. The value of goods and services created by the private sector, has no relationship to the federal government’s ability to transfer dollars from T-security accounts at the FRB to checking accounts at private banks.

Finally, Debt/GDP (shown as “FYGFDPUN/GDP”) has no relationship to inflation:

Debt/GDP vs inflation

And that is why the debt/GDP ratio is meaningless.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http:www.rodgermitchell.com

-Richard Koo–If you don’t believe me, believe him

An alternative to popular faith
Listen to Richard Koo’s tape at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/richard-koo-great-recessions-lessons-learned-from-japan/comment-page-1/#comment-233008. He says some of what I have been saying for the past 15 years. Federal deficit spending is absolutely, positively necessary for economic growth.

I hope our government leaders listen to him, though I doubt they will. They sure haven’t listened to me. The reason: The debt hawks have the nation worried, because they equate federal debt with personal debt. So you hear that your grandchildren will have to pay the debt, and large deficits cause inflation, and surpluses are more prudent than deficits — none of which are true.

So, we struggle with trying to provide universal health care, which the government can and should provide, while debt fear negatively impacts the physical and financial health of millions.

Deficit spending grows the economy and can provide health care, too — and it never needs to be paid back. Never. But Congress, the President and most of the economists simply don’t get it. They don’t even look at our economic history, which repeatedly shows long-term deficit spending is necessary for long-term economic growth.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

-When is a recession?


An alternative to popular faith

        Readers of this blog and of the summary are familiar with the fact that all six depressions in U.S. history immediately were preceded by extreme reductions in federal deficits (aka “surpluses”):

1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819.
1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837.
1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857.
1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873.
1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893.
1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929.

        You also are familiar with the following graph showing that the last nine recessions began with reductions in federal debt growth and were cured with increases in federal debt growth.
Fed debt private investors 50-09

Note how debt growth declines before recessions and increases to cure recessions

In 1996, the prelude to Free Money, titled “The Ultimate America” predicted future recessions would follow decreases in debt growth. Since then it happened again, twice.

        Six depressions and nine recessions — a total of fifteen out of fifteen times at which federal debt growth declined and the economy fell — is an amazing, almost unheard of, correlation in a complex science like economics.
        Even more startling, the first edition of Free Money was published in 1996, and it predicted future recessions would be precipitated by decreases in debt growth. This would be akin to finding it has rained all day in Chicago every June 1st, following sunshine all day every May 30th, for the past fifteen years, and accurately predicting it would happen, again — twice more.
        A sharp-eyed reader, who may be associated with the Concord Coalition, (the group claiming federal debt must be reduced, but which never provides evidence) pointed out two recessions, in 1981 and in 1991, where federal debt growth seemed to move up in advance.
        While even thirteen out of fifteen is a remarkable correlation in a science that seldom sees such correlations, the reader’s concern was understandable.
        As you can see on close inspection, federal debt growth did decline in advance of the 1981 recession – not terribly significant, but a decline nonetheless. (The 1981 recession should be considered a continuation of the recession twelve months earlier — caused by the Iranian Revolution which took place in 1979, with its increased oil prices — from which we didn’t fully recover.)

Debt growth declines in advance of 1981 recession

        With regard to the 1991 recession, we come up against the definition of the word “recession.” The media arbitrarily say a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters, which means you can’t identify a recession until it is more than six months along . Look at the following graph:

        GDP growth (blue line) turned down in 1989, while debt growth was falling. Why did the government say the recession began in 1991? Hard to say. Perhaps it was due to the very slight bump at the end of 1989.
        This graph indicates the increase in federal debt growth was beginning to cure the 1989 recession, and the momentum of continuing increased debt growth finally cured the recession in 1991.
        A strong correlation between federal debt growth and GDP growth seems to exist.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com
P.S. You might try this experiment. Ask Diane Lim Rogers (drogers@concordcoalition.org), the Concord Coalition economist, for evidence to support her claim the debt is too large. I predict she either will not answer you, or she will tell you the debt is too large and “everyone knows” it should be reduced. “Everyone knows” is what passes for evidence at Concord.