–Why the slow recovery?

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Recessions and recoveries ultimately are associated with money, and more specifically with money growth. In general, less money growth = less economic growth. (That actually is something of a tautology, since economic growth is measured in money.)

There are several definitions of money, most differing on the basis of liquidity, the ease of converting to currency. The most liquid form is called M1, which consists of currency and checking account deposits.

The government no longer measures the less liquid forms, M3, L and the most inclusive form: Debt of Domestic Non-Financial Sectors. And for many reasons, the supplies of the various money forms do not move together. For instance, there are periods when M1 goes up or down more than M2, even though M1 is part of M2.

I found an interesting pattern relative to recessions. In the following graph, you see a strong tendency for one form of money, Federal Debt Held by the Public, to grow more slowly before recessions, then grow quickly during recessions, then resume growing more slowly after recessions.

M1 exhibits a similar, though less consistent pattern, and M2 is less consistent yet. One consistency is: Following every recession, at least one of the money forms grows at an increasing rate — every recession except the most recent one:

Here, despite (or because of) worries about deficits, every measured form of money has shown a sharp decline in growth rate. Perhaps this overall decline in money growth is responsible for the slowness of the recovery — yet another bit of evidence that debt fear has hurt our economy, and increased federal spending is desperately needed.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–How President Obama’s National bipartisan Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform could destroy America

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Parade Magazine, in its 7/4/10 “Intelligence Report”, printed an interview by Steven Beschloss and Janet Kinosian titled, “Can These Men Fix the Deficit?” The men are Erskine Bowles, a former White House chief of staff, and Alan Simpson, a former Republican Senate whip. Today, Messrs. Bowles and Simpson are co-chairs of President Obama’s National bipartisan Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.

Here, with my comments, are what they said:

BOWLES: “If we don’t solve the (federal) debt problem, we will be paying $1 trillion in interest in 2020. That’s money we can’t spend on Social Security, Medicare, education, infrastructure or innovation to make sure America is competitive in a global economy.”

RMM: “Of course, he’s dead wrong. America is a monetarily sovereign nation. Future spending is restricted neither by past spending, by debt, by deficits nor by tax collections. That $1 trillion in interest will function as an economic stimulus. This is classic cognitive inconsistency. Mr. Bowles believes the government cannot do what he sees with his own eyes, the government actually doing, i.e spending trillions on stimulus plans, despite debt that has grown more than 1,500% in only 30 years. In addition to cognitive inconsistency, he suffers from anthropomorphic economic disease – the mistaken belief that the government’s finances are like yours and mine.

BOWLES: “We’re looking at how we can reduce discretionary spending – things like education, transportation, the military, homeland security – and mandatory spending which includes Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. We also need to raise revenue.”

RMM: He believes that cutting back on education, transportation, the military, homeland security, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, while raising taxes, will “make sure America is competitive in a global economy.” The notion would be laughable if it weren’t so dangerous.

SIMPSON: “We’re not going to cut Social Security – we’re going to stabilize it. None of the ideas that have been presented will affect anyone over the age of 58.”

RMM: “Stabilize” is political double talk for, “We are going to cut Social Security for everyone 58 and younger.”

SIMPSON: “As it is, it (Social Security) can’t sustain itself.”

RMM: Ah, the old (and false) “unsustainable” claim.

BOWLES: “We’re going to work our hearts out succeed.”

RMM: In their world, “Fiscal Responsibility and Reform” are code words for austerity, which always causes recessions and depressions. Heaven help us from those who have power, yet cannot learn.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–Some thoughts on closing the financial gap.

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology. Those, who do not understand Monetary Sovereignty, do not understand economics. If you understand the following, simple statement, you are ahead of most economists, politicians and media writers in America: Our government, being Monetarily Sovereign, has the unlimited ability to create the dollars to pay its bills.
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Whether for moral or for practical reasons, most of us would like to see the large gap between the rich and the poor reduced. But how? We could try the “Robin Hood” approach: Take money from the rich and give money to the poor. The progressive income tax code already is a take-from-the-rich device. Taxes on highest earners could be raised even further, as President Obama wishes to do. But, all taxes remove money from the economy. So if higher tax rates were effective money collectors, they would slow the economy, which ultimately hurts then poor.

Taxes could be increased on inheritances and on high-end purchases (furs, jewelry, boats, luxury cars, expensive homes). But, this too removes money from the economy, and past attempts have impacted the businesses supplying these luxury goods, which has impacted employment. The property of the rich simply could be confiscated and distributed to the poor. This has been attempted in several countries, most recently in Zimbabwe, to disastrous results for the poor.

All things considered, take-from-the-rich does not seem to be an effective device for closing the gap between rich and poor.

Alternatively, the federal government can deficit spend. This can lift the poor, though it probably does not close the gap, as it would lift the rich, too. We could eliminate FICA, which falls most heavily on the lower-paid employed, though this also would help the rich who own the businesses paying FICA. We could raise the minimum income for federal taxing. This would help lift the poor, but help the rich business owners by giving the poor more spending money. We could increase federal assistance to Medicaid, food stamps, “affordable” housing, etc. This would help lift the poor, and also help the rich owners of pharmaceutical companies, groceries, builders, etc.

In all, perhaps no attempt to transfer money directly from the rich, or directly to poor, does much, if anything, to close the wealth gap. Giving money to the poor helps the rich. Taking money from the rich, hurts the poor. And the gap remains.

If the gap is to be closed, the poor themselves may have to close it, and I suspect the device is education. Of all the differences between rich and poor, perhaps none is more important than level of education. Today, primary and secondary education are available free to everyone. Sadly, the quality of this education differs markedly, between rich and poor. A college education and an advanced degree are not feasible for a poorly educated child, and despite scholarships, they are not affordable for most poorly financed families.

Affordability might be accomplished if the federal government were to pay for college just as the states and cities pay for primary and secondary education. Even then, some parents want their children to go out into the working world, to bring back support for the family, which can doom the child to a life of menial labor. This problem might be addressed by offering federal support to families who allow their children to attend college. Universal college might put all young people on a more even footing, and help close then financial gap.

There have been many attempts to address differences in educational quality among primary and secondary schools, with NCLB (No Child Left Behind) being the most obvious. The program has supporters, detractors and difficulties. Many teachers’ unions resist quality evaluations. Many families do not have an educational ethic. Many children come from dysfunctional families and neighborhoods. The problem is not just one of poor schools. It is a community-wide problem, requiring a community-wide solution.

School administrators must be given the power, the motivation and the know-how to bring principals, teachers, parents and students — the entire neighborhood population — together as one cooperative force to improve educational quality. Private schools, magnet schools and some religious schools demonstrate that education of the poor can be improved.

The problem is difficult and far beyond the scope of this post and the expertise of this writer. But, assume we could create a nation of outstanding primary and secondary schools, motivated families and free colleges. Let’s say we could close the financial gap. Is this economically wise? That is, would our economy grow better, and would our population live better, happier, more rewarding lives overall, if there were little or no gap?

I hope to write more about this, and meanwhile I welcome your thoughts.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity

–What’s so fearsome about a filibuster?

An alternative to popular faith

The Republican minority repeatedly has used the threat of filibuster to obtain concessions or even to block majority decisions. I wonder why this threat is so powerful. Isn’t there a danger that voters will become sick and tired of a stalemated Congress, and blame the Republicans for repeatedly being “the party of ‘no'”?

Now we come to the Elena Kagan circus, excuse me, hearing, and once again the threat of filibuster sits like an elephant in the room. Yes, ask her questions to see if she is qualified (though it’s doubtful T.V sound bites will prove anything.) And yes, if you really believe someone’s attitudes about guns and abortion should be the sole considerations for Supreme Court Justice, vote accordingly. But, must every vote on everything be accompanied by the same “I’ll take my ball and go home” threat?

If the child learns it can get its way by stamping, screaming and holding its breath, who’s to blame — the weakling parent or the kid? Why not just let the brat stamp, scream and hold its breath until it gets tired? As I said, what’s so fearsome about a filibuster?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity