Tag: cause inflation

–Economic myths, false beliefs and fairy tales

An alternative to popular faith

The U.S. and the world, lurch from boom to bust in seemingly uncontrollable waves. Popular faith holds that recessions and depressions are an unavoidable part of the natural economic cycle. I suspect these “natural” cycles occur because actions (or lack of actions) are based on false beliefs.

Economics has engendered an amazing number of myths, most based on what some feel is logic. But it’s the same degree of logic that says the earth must be flat, else we would fall off. Here is a list of myths, false beliefs and fairy tales. If you disagree with any item on this list, please let me know, and I’ll explain why it’s there.

• Money and debt are two different things.
• A growing economy does not need a growing supply of money.
• Federal surpluses help the economy grow.
• The federal debt is too large.
• The federal debt is the total of federal deficits.
• The current level of deficits is unsustainable.
• Federal taxes help pay for federal spending.
• Federal borrowing helps pay for federal spending.
• The federal government spends taxpayers’ money.
• Our children and grandchildren will pay for today’s federal deficits.
• A balanced federal budget is more prudent than a federal deficit.
• The federal debt/GDP ratio measures the government’s ability to service its debts.
• Each of us owes a share of the federal debt.
• Federal earmarks, pork barrel spending and waste hurt the economy.
• The single biggest cause of inflation is excessive federal deficit spending.
• Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.
• Consumer saving helps the economy grow.
• In fractional reserve banking, banks keep a fraction of deposits and lend the rest.
• The best way to cure inflation is to increase taxes or cut federal spending.
• State, county and city governments are financially similar to the federal government.
• FICA taxes pay for Medicare and Social Security.
• The government cannot afford to fund Medicare or Social Security.
• The U.S., like the EU nations, can go bankrupt.
• Without increases in taxes or decreased spending, Medicare and Social Security will go bankrupt.
• Without tax increases, the federal government cannot afford to increase support for education, infrastructure improvements, bailouts for states, counties and cities, the military, research and local police.
• Gold is safer and more prudent than “paper” (fiat) money.
• The federal government needs to borrow to pay for deficit spending.
• Federal borrowing reduces the availability of lending funds.
• The two main reasons for the recent economic collapse were low interest rates and lack of federal credit supervision.
• Low interest rates stimulate the economy; high rates slow it.
• Taxing the rich does not hurt the poor.
• Cutting payments to doctors and/or taxing “Cadillac” health insurance plans, is one good way to help pay for improved health care.
• The federal debt ceiling has a beneficial function.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–Prof. Barro and the cost of federal spending

An alternative to popular faith

The 1/22/10 Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by Professor Robert Barro (Harvard University), who believes, “Much more focus should be on incentives for people and businesses to invest, produce and work. On the tax side, we should avoid programs that throw money at people and emphasize instead reductions in marginal income-tax rates — especially where these rates are already high and fall on capital income. Eliminating the federal corporate income tax would be brilliant. On the spending side, the main point is that we should not be considering massive public-works programs that do not pass muster from the perspective of cost-benefit analysis. Just as in the 1980s, when extreme supply-side views on tax cuts were unjustified, it is wrong now to think that added government spending is free.”

Mostly, I agree — with one huge exception. That last phrase, ” . . . it is wrong now to think that added government spending is free” is itself, wrong.

If federal government spending is not free, it must have a cost. So what is the cost? Not higher taxes, which have no historical relationship to deficit spending. (See item #9 at https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/introduction/.)
Taxes generally have been based on political, not economic, considerations. From a financial standpoint, taxes no longer (after 1971, the end of the gold standard) affect the federal government’s ability to spend. In fact, all federal taxes could be eliminated tomorrow, and the federal government’s ability to spend would not be reduced by even one penny.

Is the cost of federal government spending increased inflation. No, not that either. There is no historical relationship between federal deficits and inflation. The highest inflation since WWII came with the modest Carter deficits, and was cured during the robust Reagan spending years. A graph of deficit growth vs. inflation shows a zero cause/effect relationship. (See item #8 in https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/introduction/ )

Well then, does deficit spending cause high interest rates? The graph at https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/11/15/deficits-and-interest-rates-another-myth/ indicates no relationship between high deficits and high interest rates.

Even if deficit spending did cause interest rates to rise, there is no historical relationship between low rates and high GDP growth. See item #10 at https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/introduction/

In summary, there is no post-1971 cost to federal deficit spending, a strong argument for tax cuts and increased spending and a strong argument against deficit concerns.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–Three misunderstood, economic truths

An alternative to popular faith

        Three economic truths: Federal deficit spending is necessary for economic growth; all money is debt; federal taxes do not pay for federal spending.
        For you and me, running a financial deficit is bad. Deficits can deplete our personal money supply, reducing our ability to pay bills. Similarly, when a corporation or a city, county or state runs a financial deficit, their ability to pay bills is reduced.
        However, despite what the media, the politicians and the economists tell you, when the U.S. government runs a deficit, that is good – in fact, necessary.
        By definition, a large economy has more money than does a small economy. So, a growing economy must have a growing supply of money. Federal deficit spending is the way the government adds growth money to the economy. Because the federal government has the unlimited power to create money, it never can run short of money to pay its bills.
        Every form of money is a form of debt. Bank savings accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, CDs, travelers’ checks, corporate bonds and T-bills all are types of debt and money. Even the dollar bill is a debt of the federal government, which is why it has “federal reserve note” printed on it. “Bill” and “note” are words describing debt.
        As debt and money are identical, a growing economy must have a growing supply of debt. It can be personal debt, corporate debt, city, county and state debt, and it can be federal debt. All debts, except federal debt, are limited by the debtor’s ability of pay, and excessive debt can lead to bankruptcy. This makes federal debt the safest form of debt. It can grow endlessly, without causing bankruptcy.
        One counter-argument is that foreign countries (especially China) will refuse to lend us money. But, we don’t need to borrow from China or from anywhere else. We borrow by creating T-securities out of thin air, then selling them. This process is a relic of the gold standard days, when the government did not have the unlimited ability to create money. Today, the government does not need to create and sell T-securities. It merely can create money, also out of thin air. The processes are functionally identical. The end of federal borrowing would end concerns about federal debt. Rather than discuss “debt” we would discuss “money created.”
        A second counter argument is that printing money causes inflation. Examples are given of pre-war Germany, China and Brazil, which suffered hyper-inflation, a different process. Hyper-inflation occurs if a government prints money in response to inflation, when the proper response is to raise interest rates. Since WWII inflation has not been caused by excessive money printing, but rather by excessive oil prices. The largest, recent inflationary period came during the modest Carter deficits. The massive Reagan deficits saw inflation decline. Making money more valuable by raising interest rates, prevents and cures inflation.
        The media tell us the federal government spends “taxpayers’ money” or “our grandchildren’s money.” Neither is true. Other governments – city, county and state — do not have the unlimited ability to create money, so they spend taxpayers’ money. The federal government does not. There is no historical relationship between federal deficits and tax rates. The federal government literally destroys incoming tax money, and creates new money to pay its bills. There is no federal “bill-paying” account funded by taxes.
        Federal debt has increased 1400% in just the past 30 years, and the government never has had any difficulty paying its bills. Were taxes to fall to $0, this would not affect by even one penny, the government’s ability to pay its bills.
        In summary, much of what the media, the politicians and the economists tell you about our economy either is obsolete or always has been wrong. The lack of understanding that federal deficits are different from all other deficits has prevented universal health care and improvements in education, pension support, the ecology, the infrastructure, energy, the military and numerous other situations.
        The misguided fear of inflation or taxes, neither of which is exacerbated by federal deficit spending, has paralyzed our ability to solve the most pressing problems of today.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–Understanding Federal Debt. Full Faith and Credit

An alternative to popular faith

Why do we have recessions and depressions? Are they inevitable and unavoidable? Why do we have inflations? Are they preventable and curable?

This short post will give you a basis for answering these vexing (especially to the politicians, the Fed and the media) questions.

1. By definition: A larger economy has more money than does a smaller economy. California has more money than does Los Angeles, which in turn, has more money than does Anaheim.

2. Therefore: To grow larger, an economy requires a growing supply of money.

3. All forms of money are debt. Although there are many definitions of money, every form of modern money – bank accounts, money market accounts, traveler’s checks – is a form of debt. Even currency is a debt of the government. That is why a dollar “bill” has “federal reserve note” printed on it. “Bill” and “note” are words signifying debt (as in “T-bill” and “T-note.”)

4. Therefore: To grow larger, an economy requires a growing supply of debt/money.

5. The safest form of debt/money is federal debt/money. There are many types of debt – personal debt, corporate debt, state and local government debt, federal debt – but after 1971, the end of the gold standard, only the federal government has had the unlimited ability to create money to service its debt. All other debtors go bankrupt when they are unable to service their debts. The end of the gold standard marked the biggest change in economics during the 20th century. Most key economic hypotheses became obsolete in 1971; economists who did not change in 1971 are themselves obsolete.

6. All debt requires collateral. The collateral for federal debt is “full faith and credit.” This may sound nebulous to some, but it actually involves certain, specific and valuable guarantees, among which are:
A. –The government will accept only U.S. currency in payment of debts to the government
B. –It unfailingly will pay all its dollar debts with U.S. dollars and will not default
C. –It will force all your domestic creditors to accept U.S. dollars, if you offer them, to satisfy your debt.
D. –It will not require domestic creditors to accept any other money
E. –It will take action to protect the value of the dollar.
F. –It will maintain a market for U.S. currency
G. –It will continue to use U.S. currency and will not change to another currency.
H. –All forms of U.S. currency will be reciprocal, that is five $1 bills always will equal one $5 bill and vice versa.

7. The value of debt (money) is based on supply and demand. An increase in supply makes the value go down. An increase in demand makes the value go up.

8. The demand for debt (money) is based on risk and reward. The risk of owning debt (money) is the danger of inflation. The reward for owning debt (money) interest rates. High reward with low risk makes demand go up which makes value go up.

9. Inflation compares the value of debt (money) with the overall value of goods and services. Fighting inflation requires increasing the reward for owning debt (money) and/or reducing the supply of debt (money). However, because a growing economy requires a growing supply of debt (money), reducing the supply leads to recessions and depressions, making supply-reduction a poor choice for fighting inflation.

10. For every borrower there is a lender. To the degree lowering interest rates helps borrowers, it equally hurts lenders, both of whom are part of the economy. The Fed lowers interest rates, believing this helps businesses that are borrowers, neglecting the fact that it equally hurts businesses that are lenders. That is why the 20 rate reductions preceding and during the recession, neither prevented nor cured the recession.

You now know how to begin to answer the questions in the first paragraph.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com