–Japan, Ireland, Greece: Facts vs. Mainstream Economists

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

The mainstream economists never change, but my hope is if I continue to demonstrate the inconsistencies of mainstream economics, eventually the word will get to the politicians, the media and the public. Here is a quick sampling of 10/26/10 AP articles:

TOKYO — Japan’s Cabinet approved an extra budget to help finance $63 billion of stimulus spending aimed at spurring the country’s lackluster economy as it battles deflation and a strong yen.”

The CIA’s World Factbook 2010 shows Japan’s Debt/GDP at 189%. According to mainstream economics (aka debt-hawk economics), that Debt/GDP ratio should force a terrible inflation on Japan, and its debt should be “unsustainable.” But Japan is battling deflation, and seems to have so little difficulty “sustaining” its debt. And it will spend an additional $63 billion. See the disconnect?

The same source lists the Debt/GDP ratio for the U.S. as 53% (More recent data from the Treasury shows this to be 66%), far lower than Japan’s. Yet, the debt hawks claim – without any supporting data — the U.S. federal debt must be reduced by raising taxes and/or reduced spending, either or both of which will injure the economy.

But wait, there’s more. According to mainstream economics, all that borrowing should have forced Japan’s interest rates up, which should be bad for economic growth. But Japan’s benchmark interest rate is 0%, as low as it has been in 5 years. The reason: Japan’s benchmark interest rate is not market-derived; it is set by the Japanese government, just as the U.S. Fed Funds rate is set by the Fed.

“DUBLIN — Ireland’s government said it must slash euro15 billion ($20.8 billion) from its annual budgets in a four-year plan designed to bring Europe’s highest deficit back within EU limits.”

The EU demands that its nations have a Deficit/GDP ratio below 3%. However, as Ireland reduces stimulus spending, GDP also will fall. So, Ireland must chase a moving target, in which reductions in the numerator cause reductions in the denominator. Visualize a dog chasing its tail, and you have the EU mainstream economics version of Ireland.

ATHENS, Greece — Greece’s central bank governor says the government must not relent in its planned deficit-cutting efforts but warns against further tax increases, which would deepen the recession.

Just so we understand, tax increases will “deepen the recession” (by removing money from the economy), but deficit cuts, which also will remove money from the economy, are O.K.???

And this is what the science of economics has become.

There are two and only two solutions for Greece and Ireland. Either,
1. Return to Monetary Sovereignty by re-adopting your sovereign currency
or
2. Have the EU create a true United States of Europe whereby the EU would supply euros to its member nations as needed.

There are no other solutions. Oh yes, and stop demanding that your member nations commit economic suicide.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–Here is the financial solution for your state, county and city

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Illinois is broke. Your state either is, or soon will be, broke, too. Illinois’s 13 million population owes $13 billion. Like all states, counties and cities, Illinois is not monetarily sovereign, so unlike the federal government, which is monetarily sovereign, states cannot create money to pay their bills. Illinois is far behind on payments to the many vendors who supply services to its citizens. The state has no hope of continuing its “borrow now, pay later” system.

Yes, Illinois may be the most dishonest state in America. Several of its recent governors have gone to jail, and the government is run by swindlers. Although the reprehensible head of the Democratic party in this traditionally Democratic state, Mike Madigan, can be blamed for much of the financial chaos, there is plenty of blame spread around.

We can begin with the voters, who inexplicably continue to vote solid Democratic, despite the astounding record for corruption this party has amassed. Not only is Illinois thoroughly crooked, but so is Cook County and Chicago, also Democratic strongholds. Chicago aldermen traditionally go to jail after a few years in office, and Mayor Daley is the classic Sgt. Schultz, the guy who repeatedly said, “I know nothing, I see nothing.”

Daley sold income-earning city assets, then spent the money, putting Chicago ever deeper in the hole. (Pity the next mayor). And don’t ask about Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, who was appointed by his father after his father died (really), and instituted a “friends and family” system of patronage hiring. With all this, voters march to the polls, like little automatons, pull the Democratic lever, and march back out to complain. (In all fairness, Illinois has had its share of venal Republican governors, too, though these guys were mere minnows in a sea of sharks.)

Nevertheless, though the state, its largest county and its largest city all are run by criminals, even a theoretically honest state cannot survive on tax receipts alone. Because monetarily non-sovereign governments cannot create money, inflation forces them all to obtain money from outside their borders.

“Outside” earnings can come exports of goods and services. Example: Salaries earned by Evanston, Illinois residents, paid by Chicago firms. Or outside earnings can come from government support. Example: Illinois pays some Chicago Transportation Authority expenses. And this later approach demonstrates the only way to save Illinois and all the other states.

If the U.S. federal government would give Illinois just $1,000 for each resident, the state debt would disappear. And if the federal government continued to give Illinois an ongoing $500 for each resident, Illinois could pay its cities and counties enough to achieve better schools, better roads, better transportation and other improvements in human benefits, while reducing the onerous property, income and sales taxes, that hurt Illinois’s economy.

Yes, Illinois’s crooked politicians will continue to steal, and Illinois voters will continue to elect them, but state poverty hasn’t stopped the politicians, anyway. And though Illinois politicians uniformly promise to reduce the debt, this requires self destructive taxes and spending cuts. Austerity is a path to disaster. So, the sole financial solution for Illinois and for all states, a solution that will improve the lives of its residents and of all America’s residents, a solution easily affordable by the federal government, is per capita support for all states.

Without increased support to states, America’s quality of life will decline, as schools, roads, health care, nursing homes, housing, courts, police and fire protection, parks and businesses all disintegrate. There is no other solution. Mathematically, America’s states, counties and cities cannot do it themselves. The federal government must do it.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–Easy money for debt hawks.

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

O.K. boys. It’s time to put up or shut up.

The Concord Coalition is a self-proclaimed “non-partisan, grassroots organization dedicated to educating the public about the causes and consequences of federal budget deficits, the long-term challenges facing America’s unsustainable entitlement programs, and how to build a sound foundation for economic growth.” Their web site http://www.concordcoalition.org/ asks for donations.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget – http://crfb.org/ – publishes articles like: “How To Avoid a Debt Doomsday,” and writes, “Creditors could lose faith and pull their money from the United States. Interest rates would spike, causing interest payments to grow. The government would be forced to borrow more, which would push rates even higher. The endgame would be a vicious debt spiral and another recession.” They too ask for donations.

As you have seen from my previous post, “How to make a million. No kidding,” Warren Mosler (Mosler) said “it is an indisputable fact that U.S. Government spending is not operationally constrained by revenue and will give $100 million of his own money to pay down the Federal deficit if any Congressman or Senator can prove him wrong.” O.K., he said Congressman or Senator, but I’m sure Warren will be glad to extend the offer to any debt-hawk who can show that Social Security is “going broke” as so many claim, or that FICA supports Medicare and Social Security, or that the federal debt is “unsustainable.”

Back in July, I offered ($1,000 ) for the same kind of proof, but I guess I’m a piker, and no one has taken me up on it. Warren is offering the big bucks.

Just think. $100 million dollars, debt-hawks, and all you need do is prove what you have been preaching all these years. You’ve been begging for donations and here is your chance. I urge all my readers to go to any debt-hawk web site – you know, the ones publishing those ridiculous debt clocks and claiming the government can’t afford this or that, or saying we need austerity, or debt reduction or some other suicidal action — and urge these folks to come up with the proof. And if they don’t, I guess we’ll all know that what they are selling is a load of BS.

Speak up, boys. My book is called FREE MONEY, but this offer is easy money, and the money is waiting for you. Warren is waiting. I’m waiting.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”

–England is doomed; it doesn’t know it is monetarily sovereign

The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to biology.

Back in 2005, I said, “The Euro is the worst economic idea since the recession-era, Smoot-Hawley Tariff. The economies of European nations are doomed by the Euro.” I said that because the euro, or specifically the rules surrounding the euro, transformed a group of monetarily sovereign nations into helpless, monetarily non-sovereign nations.

These were nations that thirty years earlier had rejected the straightjacket of the gold standard, only to adopt the straightjacket of the euro standard. One EU nation, England, was wise enough to reject the euro. It still uses the pound sterling. So England is the only monetarily sovereign EU nation.

Alas, England has forgotten why it rejected the euro, and now has begun to act as though it were monetarily non-sovereign. Here is the headline for today’s article in the Washington Post, by Rebecca Omonira-Oyekanmi: “British budget cuts to include nearly 500K job losses

The article says, “The measures announced by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will span four years and include an average cut of 19 percent in central government departments’ budgets, an $11 billion reduction in welfare spending and an increase in the pension-eligibility age to 66. The government acknowledged that 490,000 public-sector jobs would be lost over the four years as result of the cuts.

Osborne went on to say, “The cuts deal decisively with the largest budget deficit this House of Commons has ever had to face outside of wartime.

Isn’t austerity wonderful? What a clever way to cure the recession: Destroy 500K jobs. But what choice do they have? As long as they mistakenly believe they are not monetarily sovereign, and so cannot afford budget deficits, they are required to cut spending and/or to raise taxes, both of which will send the English economy into a tailspin.

So England is doomed, because the debt-hawks have taken over.

In a similar vein, the debt-hawk Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (what an ironic name), has posted a questionnaire titled “In Search of Fiscal Responsibility: Ten Questions to Ask the Candidates.” The ten questions boil down to one: Would you rather have a tax increase or have certain federal programs cut? I urge you to go to their site and see what your answers would be.

Of course, the questionnaire is based on their false premise that cutting the deficit will benefit the economy. If you write to their president, Maya MacGuineas, as I have many times, and ask, “What evidence do you have that the federal deficit is unsustainable, and the budget should be cut?, you either will receive no answer (likely) or you will be given non-sequitur answers like, “The deficit is a high percentage of GDP.” Try it yourself. Her Email is:crfb@newamerica.net

Meanwhile, watch England fall – unless it comes to its senses.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

No nation can tax itself into prosperity. Those who say the stimulus “didn’t work” remind of the guy whose house is on fire. A neighbor runs with a garden hose and starts spraying, but the fire continues. The neighbor wants to call the fire department, which would bring the big hoses, but the guy says, “Don’t call. As you can see, water doesn’t put out fires.”