What is the measure of consciousness?

In the preceding post titled “Is a rock conscious?”, the “hard problem” of consciousness was explored, addressing its nature, the beings that possess it, and the methods for its recognition and measurement.

In science, when something exists, scientists set out to measure it. Everything is measured—energy, distance, volume, size, temperature, strength, intelligence—but not generally consciousness.

Yes, during an operation, some measures are used: An electroencephalogram monitors the brain’s electrical activity, and anesthesiologists monitor heart rate, blood pressure, and muscle tone. Sometimes, anesthesiologists may check for purposeful responses, such as squeezing a hand or opening eyes.

These are merely rough and infrequent measures of wakefulness, distinctly different from consciousness. A person who is sleeping remains conscious.

This inquiry extends to further questions: “How much consciousness does a specific entity possess?” and If consciousness exists, how much is there?”

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Conscious?

I propose that consciousness should not be seen as a unique trait but rather as an assertion that all entities perceive and react to their surroundings, with the degree of perception and reaction indicating levels of consciousness.

On the spectrum of perception and responsiveness, a human exhibits greater consciousness than a bacterium, which is more conscious than a rock.

However, even a rock can sense and react to temperature, water, wind, sound, and physical impacts. Some things may be even less responsive than a rock — perhaps a piece of titanium?.

In the comment section of that post, we attempted to address the title question by replying to readers’ comments.

As many readers overlook a comment section, below are excerpts that might interest you:

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Conscious?

tetrahedron720 I agree that consciousness is an awareness of something other than nothing. If there’s nothing, then there’s no consciousness, like before you were born or Zero.

So, consciousness begins with “an awareness” of some otherness, which includes self-consciousness against a backdrop and an awareness of reality. Awareness or (consciousness) begins with 2, not 1.

There’s no 1 in the real world; no singularity is provable or possible, except in theory or science fiction.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell If consciousness is awareness, then what is awareness? Is an ant “aware”? Is a tree aware of its surroundings? Is a bacterium aware? Is a virus aware? Is a sleeping person aware?

I believe you have fallen into the trap that has bedeviled philosophers for centuries. You have stated the problem in a way that makes it impossible to solve because you have anthropomorphized it.

Obviously, a bacterium is “aware” of its surroundings. It could not survive unless it was aware of food, poisons, and other chemicals. Are you ready to say a bacterium is conscious? I am.

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Conscious?

TS Reminds me of something I read about trees being able to ‘signal’ each other. What would Pando say?

Mitchell

Yes, Pando and all other trees send signals, receive signals and respond to signals, just as you do. As do bacteria. As do rocks. As do photons. As does the earth itself, the solar system, the galaxy and the universe — they all send, receive and respond to signals.

Thus, they all are conscious.

rawgod As far as I can tell, consciousness comes from being alive — from having life. Which is why I question the consciousness of a photon. What does a photon sense? Is it the brain that is conscious, or is it the mind? The brain remains after death; the mind does not, and neither does life. I may be simplistic, but I see life as the seat of consciousness and the mind as the part of us that expresses our consciousness. This is my philosophy of life—life is consciousness!

That leaves a few questions: What is life? What is consciousness? Is a dog conscious? Is a bee conscious? A bacterium? A virus? A tree? A sleeping person?

You are about to begin a voyage that has occupied philosophers for eons. That is why it is called a “hard problem.” The statement of the problem is what makes it hard.

I believe consciousness is the reaction to stimuli. Suddenly, the problem becomes simple. The greater the response to the stimuli, the greater the consciousness. No mysticism is required.

A photon senses whatever it reacts with. It can have many different energies vibrating in what we see as colors or feel as heat. It can be entangled with other photons. It can act as a particle or as a wave.

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Conscious?

tetrahedron720 “…If consciousness is awareness, then what is awareness…?”

They’re both sides of the same coin, though they vary in degree. But then, what is the coin? To me, the ‘coin’ is the ability to differentiate, i.e. life.

Only life can purposely differentiate ( reproduce) by being aware or conscious of another system like itself.

A rock cannot reproduce, nor is it aware of the need to survive. Yes, a rock or photon can react or sense vibrations, but that’s not the same as the ability or need to differentiate and survive.

Sensation is different from reproduction. The former is picking up vibes, and the latter is doing something about it progressively.

Mitchell What about a virus? Or a flame that multiplies by differentiating between flammable and nonflammable? Is a bacterium aware or conscious of another system like itself to multiply?

tetrahedron720 “… Or is consciousness just an illusion that your brain has conjured up? …”

What is objectively “out there” is what our subjective “in there” brains detect. Science and repeated experimental experience of experts determine if “out and in” or subjective and objective are the same.

Everything with sensorial equipment, eyes, ears, nose, etc., in short, a brain, can only detect a tiny portion of reality. Before microscopes, telescopes, etc. were invented, our senses made contact with very little of reality and still do.

We only ‘see’ a small share (colors) of the wavelengths in the whole electromagnetic spectrum and hear very little with our ears. We still don’t know what’s beyond the furthest seeable galaxy.

We peer further than ever before in every direction and never reach an end.

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Conscious?

The best we can do is what our logical brains/minds allow. There’s a lot more to reality, and we’ll have to wait for scientific minds and instruments to penetrate the illusion we call reality.

On another note, perhaps we should ask what we mean by “Alive” instead of “consciousness” or “awareness.”

Where is the line between “alive” and “dead?” Or “eternal” and “temporal?”

Mitchell The fact that we cannot answer the final question in your comment is part of why I say that consciousness is sensing, and everything senses.

rawgod Can the photon refuse to react? That would definitely display consciousness. Just because it does react is meaningless to me if it always reacts the same way under the same circumstance — like a well-oiled machine. We know machines are not conscious.

You ask, what is life? Does a thing come into being, change itself in some way, and then cease to be after some period of time? I cannot say what life is, but to the best of my knowledge, all living things display those three elements—birth, growth, and death.

Of course, this begs the question: Are bacteria and viruses living? They certainly reproduce themselves by splitting into exact duplicates, which could be considered an act of birth, but it is for better and wiser people than I to say if they actually change or grow in some way.

Or do they do these things because their nature forces them to act in one and only one way? (In other words, I don’t know if what they have is life or just some kind of predetermined existence.

I can and have argued both sides. So again, do they have a choice in their actions?) The ability to act or not act under equal circumstances sounds like some kind of consciousness.

Then, we have to consider anthropomorphism. Do we only see life where we can see similarities to our own lives? Is a planet alive? Is an airless blob of matter floating through space alive?

Anyway, to summarize, in my little mind, anything that comes into being grows or changes by internal processes, and at some point, be it microseconds or billions of years, dies or ceases to exist, then that constitutes life of some kind. And if nothing else, life contains the possibility of consciousness, even if we cannot see it.

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Conscious?

Mitchell Are your criteria met by a fire? A river? A meteor? A star? A cloud? An odor? A galaxy? A mountain?

rawgod Science has not taken us there yet, so I cannot comment in the way you are asking me to. When I considered the planet, the earth represented all these other things. There are things we do not know.

So, maybe I must adjust my criteria somewhat. I would expect that in order to be born or somehow created, there must be a continuation process, as in having a parent or parents.

As far as we know, none of your items are continuations of previous beings, but I cannot totally rule them out because I simply do not know.

That is part of “my” anthropomorphism problem. I cannot see a continuation process, but that does not mean it isn’t there.

But for argument’s sake, none are “life as we know it.” A cooling chunk of lava does not make a live rock. The rock cannot change itself; it can only change through the actions of outside forces.

But to go in a different direction, are the cells in our bodies conscious? I would say yes; each cell fits the birth, change, and death process. In fact, I would go so far as to theorize the possibility of our own consciousness being a group of cellular consciousnesses working together as a collective. I know that a gut feeling is more often right than an idea born in my head.

My body has often saved me from harm by warning me with a strong feeling I cannot explain except by such a collective consciousness.

So far, you have offered me no reason to change my mind that my pseudo-definition of life is wrong. Can you respond in such a way as to agree or disagree, or even provide a maybe?

What are your personal thoughts about life and consciousness? We are at the table of discussion. It is time for “your” response, not anyone else’s. You must have your own ideas…

Mitchell of the p I don’t know how to define life. No one does.  That is the whole point of this discussion. My definition of consciousness is “sensing, and everything senses, so to some degree, everything is conscious.”

It’s a “hard problem” because we insist on anthropomorphizing a word that has nothing to do with life but rather to do with existence.

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Conscious?

rawgod By sensing, do you mean “with the senses,” “being aware of,” or “reacting to”? Or some combination of these ways of sensing?

Trees sense danger coming and react to save themselves—I would call this a form of consciousness.

But I find the sensing concept “as I understand it” too general. Life is more specific. I think life requires a set of characteristics, for want of a better word.

Life may not require consciousness, but to me, it requires the possibility of consciousness. I would never consider a rock conscious of anything. But then, maybe our definitions of consciousness are different.

Mitchell Your final sentence hits the mark. “Consciousness” is a semantic question, not a physical one. In your mind, only life can be “conscious,” though you can’t define life, either.

“Consciousness” is a “hard problem” because it has different definitions, depending on the speaker. Consider the opposite of “conscious”, “unconscious.”

Is a sleeping person or a comatose person conscious? A sleeping person’s body senses and reacts to its environment. It senses the ambient temperature and adjusts accordingly.

It senses loud sounds and wakes up. It senses a hard touch and wakes up. It senses food in its digestive tract and digests it. It senses pain.

So, is a sleeping person conscious? Your answer depends only on YOUR DEFINITION of “conscious,” and is not THE DEFINITION.

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Conscious?

I see you have evolved in your struggle to understand. Now, you believe life requires the possibility of consciousness.

I have no idea what that means, but it is your unique definition. Others have different definitions.

A rock is made of chemicals, and life evolved from chemicals, so does a rock have the same possibility of consciousness as its constituent chemicals?

Human sperm begin with spermatogonia: These are the initial germ cells that divide and differentiate into sperm.

Is a germ cell conscious? Is the resultant sperm conscious?

Is an egg conscious? The sperm and egg both sense their environment and react to it. When you put them together, they form a zygote.

Is a zygote conscious? As a zygote develops it becomes a blastocyst. Is a blastocyst conscious?

As the blastocyst implants in the uterus, it forms an embryo and, after that, a fetus. Is an embryo conscious? Is a fetus conscious?

At some point, a baby is born. Is a baby conscious?

Are any or all of the above conscious? When does consciousness begin? You can define consciousness according to your wishes, and that will give you YOUR answer, but not THE answer.

If spermatogonia are not conscious, when does consciousness begin? If they are conscious, then tell me why a rock is not conscious. What are your criteria for consciousness?

Anesthesia: MedlinePlus
Conscious?

You now have arrived at “the hard problem” that has bedeviled philosophers for centuries — all because it’s not a physical question but a semantic question.

Here are excerpts from an article in Smithsonian Magazine:

Is a tiny fish conscious?

Bluestreak cleaner wrasse are small, territorial fish that aggressively fend off intruders. But when they have access to a mirror, the fish size themselves up before deciding whether or not to fight.

About the size of a human finger, bluestreak cleaner wrasse are tiny fish that set up “cleaning stations” on the reefs and wait for other fish to arrive so they can eat the parasites off their bodies.

They inspect up to 2,000 fish each day.

They also have good memories and can recognize more than 100 different “clients.”

Scientists already knew bluestreak cleaner wrasse were savvy creatures. In 2018, they became the first fish to pass what’s known as the mirror test, an experiment used to gauge self-awareness by assessing whether or not an animal recognizes its own reflection.

Other creatures that have passed the mirror test include bottlenose dolphins, chimpanzees, and Asian elephants.

Last year, researchers also showed that Bluestreak cleaner wrasse could recognize themselves in photos after looking at their reflection in a mirror.

Scientists wanted to explore the bluestreak cleaner wrasse’s self-awareness even deeper, so they set up a series of new laboratory experiments. They shared their findings in a new paper published in Scientific Reports this week.

Researchers placed a Bluestreak cleaner wrasse inside a clear fish tank. Then, they held photos against the glass showing Bluestreak cleaner wrasses of varying sizes—some 10 percent larger than the fish in the tank and some 10 percent smaller.

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Conscious?

No matter which photo the scientists showed, the wrasse inside the tank tried to attack it.

Next, the team repeated the same experiment but added a mirror to the tank. The fish checked out their own reflection before deciding whether to fight—and they would only battle photos of smaller intruders, not larger ones.

To scientists, this suggests that bluestreak cleaner wrasse are capable of understanding their own body size, as well as how their body size stacks up against a rival.

“This was unexpected because we had an image that this fish always shows aggression against rivals, regardless of size,” says study co-author Taiga Kobayashi, a scientist at Osaka Metropolitan University in Japan, to New Scientist’s Corryn Wetzel.

There are no mirrors in the wild, so the findings suggest that wrasse adapted and learned to use the mirror as a self-preservation tool.

This discovery can “help clarify the similarities between human and non-human animal self-awareness and provide important clues to elucidate how self-awareness has evolved,” Kobayashi says.

Ants changed the architecture of their nests when exposed to a pathogen Is an ant conscious?

Ants change the architecture of their nests when exposed to a pathogen. Tweaks to entrances, tunnels, and chambers may help prevent diseases from spreading.

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Conscious?

If an infection takes hold in an ants’ nest, it could spell disaster for the whole colony. But some worker ants appear to have a workaround for that. When exposed to a pathogen, black garden ants tinkered with their nest layout in ways that could slow the spread of disease.

Several animals, including humans, guppies, and mice, are known to alter their behavior to avoid infections. However, researchers report that these are the first nonhuman animals shown to actively alter their surroundings in response to infections. The preprint has yet to be peer-reviewed.

Limiting social contact — through social distancing, for example — is thought to be an effective barrier against the spread of disease. Humans also alter what the researchers call spatial networks by, for instance, using parts of a building or city as quarantine zones or expanding urban spaces.

Nathalie Stroeymeyt and her team at the University of Bristol in England let 20 groups of 180 black garden ants excavate nests in soil-filled jars to see whether ants act similarly. The day after digging started, the researchers added 20 more worker ants to each jar, with half of the jars receiving groups infected with a fungal pathogen.

Over the next six days, the researchers used video to monitor the ants’ behavior and micro-CT scans to study the evolution of their nests.

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Conscious?

Ant colonies exposed to the pathogen dug nests faster. Initially, they made more tunnels than healthy colonies, and after six days, they made several structural modifications, including spacing entrances 0.62 centimeters farther apart on average.

The exposed colonies also placed chambers — which house colony resources such as queens, their brood, and food — in less central locations.

Ants infected with the fungus spent more time at the surface than their coworkers, which the study suggests is probably a form of self-isolation.

The team then used spatial network analysis and disease transmission simulations to see if the changes would have any noticeable impact on how disease spread in the nests.

Using the designs crafted by the exposed and unexposed colonies, the team simulated what would happen if a pathogen was introduced. Ant colonies in the disease-resistant redesigns would have a significantly lower fungal load—and fewer lethal doses—than those in nests built without any previous exposure to disease, the team found.

Sebastian Stockmaier, a behavioral disease ecologist at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, says social insects like ants, bees, and termites have evolved a range of colony-level defenses to manage diseases effectively, and large-scale outbreaks are rare.

Group living is generally thought to increase the risk of disease, and this threat is particularly pronounced in social insects because of their low genetic diversity and frequent social interactions, which help disease to spread.

Because of this, when faced with disease, “their strategies are typically targeted at protecting the group as a whole, rather than focusing on the individual,” says Stockmaier.

Scientists can’t decide if consciousness is real or fake

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Conscious?

What if everything in our world has a soul and mind? What if every desk, chair, and potted plant has a conscious stream of thoughts? That’s the basic idea behind Panpsychism, a theory first put forward in the late 16th century by Francesco Patrizi. 

I should mention that Panpsychism speaks of “soul and mind,” i.e. anthropomorphism, which is its weakness. No one can define a soul or prove its existence.

To understand why this theory is regaining popularity, we must examine one of the most difficult conundrums human scientists have ever faced: where consciousness comes from.

Scientists have been trying to solve this hard problem for over a hundred years, and while developments in neuroscience, psychology, and quantum physics have come far, we still don’t have a definitive answer.

It’s a “hard problem” because of the attempts at an anthropomorphic link to life, soul, mind, thoughts, etc.
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Conscious?

The argument is regaining momentum, though, thanks in part to the work of Italian neuroscientist and psychiatrist Giulio Tononi, who proposed the idea that widespread consciousness exists even in the simplest systems.

Tononi and American neuroscientist Christof Koch argued that consciousness will follow where there are organized lumps of matter. Some even believe that the stars may be conscious.

Yes, stars are “conscious,” but what does he mean by conscious. If he means “having a soul,” he cannot be taken seriously. But if he means sensing and responding, as I do, then, of course, stars do sense inputs and respond to them.

This basic idea seems to suggest that grouped lumps of matter, like the very chair you’re sitting in , may have a stream of consciousness.

Of course, not everyone agrees with this. Many still take the stance that this is just an attempt to grasp at straws, if you will, in a bid to understand consciousness and how it comes to be.

What is a “stream of consciousness”? It sounds like falling back on the anthropomorphic again, but the problem cannot be solved by that path.

The main idea behind Panpsychism seems to rely on the belief that if brains are not required for consciousness, then anything can be conscious of its existence, and thus, everything has different experiences.

Almost, but still not there. Brains are not required for consciousness, and yes, anything can be conscious. But the author adds three words –“of its existence” — that ruin everything. Those three words imply thought, and while a star is conscious in that it senses and reacts to what it senses, the notion of thinking about its existence is a step too far.
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Conscious?

But there are more than just believers and unbelievers here. Some actually believe that consciousness is all an illusion, which raises even more questions.

Consciousness is not an illusion if it is defined as sensing and reacting. By not having an agreed-upon definition of the central word, scientists have made the hard problem an impossible problem.

Keith Frankish, an honorary professor of philosophy at the University of Sheffield, told Popular Mechanics that he believes consciousness is just an illusion of our own minds.

Of course, whether or not the very stars are conscious has yet to be proven.

We’re still far from understanding the brain and how it correlates to different things in our world.

Frankish is stuck because he doesn’t know how to define consciousness, so he can’t locate it.

This is still an area of science that draws a lot of big question marks from scientists. All you can really say for sure is what you believe. Are you conscious? Or is consciousness just an illusion that your brain has conjured up? It is undoubtedly an exciting thought.

It’s not an exciting thought. It’s a self-defeating thought. How will you draw the map if you don’t know where you’re going?
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Conscious?
Other suggested readings: What if the Universe is conscious? An article suggests that since the human brain looks like the structure of the universe, the universe might be alive.

This is a ridiculous notion, especially when you have no definition of “alive or “consciousness,” and the photo looks like a paint splatter.

Are plants intelligent? It depends on the definition:”  I can’t say whether plants are intelligent; there is no uniform definition of intelligence.

But I can say with assurance that plants are conscious, meaning they sense their surroundings. Everything does, with the only difference being how much sensing they do and what they do about it.

Debunking a myth: plant consciousness The author says, “Plants have not been shown to perform the proactive, anticipatory behaviors associated with consciousness, but only to sense and follow stimulus trails reactively.

“Consciousness is a difficult topic, and its constructs and definition are much debated. Both we and the proponents of plant consciousness focus on the most basic type, phenomenal or primary consciousness. Primary consciousness means having experiences or feelings, no matter how faint or fleeting.” 

Everything possesses “experiences,” leading the author to use many words to reach this conclusion: Consciousness is feelings. In short, he has fallen into the anthropomorphizing trap.

The correct definition of consciousness is sensingness, i.e., the ability to sense. Since everything senses its environment, consciousness is in everything, with the only difference being the amount of sensing and what is done in reaction to the sensing.

A human takes action, and so do a bee and a tree. A rock erodes. Water reacts by boiling, evaporating, or forming ice. Everything is conscious. This makes the so-called “hard problem” simple. There is no need to anthropomorphize. Just evaluate the input and the reaction, and you have the amount of consciousness.

In the following, the “hard problem becomes the impossible problem: “Human consciousness may come from another dimension, scientist suggests.”

Finding that “another dimension is like someone asking you, “How would you add 2+2? And your answer was, “Begin by finding the ninth root of a 5,000-digit number.”

Consciousness very simply is sensing and reaction. Nothing more. No multi-dimensional, other-worldly answers are needed. Everything senses, Everything reacts. Just quantify it, and I’ll tell you how conscious it is.

The question was whether they were conscious or self-aware. Can something, like a tree, be conscious but not self-aware?

I am quite sure that they are conscious. Everything is conscious, so self-awareness is irrelevant. But the author equates the two. This casual definition of terms confuses not only the public but also scientists.

The argument is regaining momentum, though, thanks in part to the work of Italian neuroscientist and psychiatrist Giulio Tononi, who proposed the idea that there is widespread consciousness even found in the simplest of systems. Tononi and American neuroscientist Christof Koch argued that consciousness will follow where there are organized lumps of matter. Some even believe that the stars may be conscious.

“Stars may be conscious.” Why does that sound ridiculous? Because you have anthropomorphized the word “conscious,” and since a star is not an animal, much less a human, how could it be conscious? That is the source of misunderstanding.

This basic idea, then, seems to suggest that grouped lumps of matter, like the very chair you’re sitting in right now, may have a stream of consciousness.
The words “stream of consciousness” imply some sort of thought process. However, a thought process is not the same or even necessary for consciousness. I very much doubt whether a tree has a stream of consciousness, but it most assuredly is conscious. It senses its surroundings and acts on them.
Of course, not everyone agrees with this. Many still take the stance that this is just an attempt to grasp at straws, if you will, in a bid to understand consciousness and how it comes to be.

After millennia, grasping at straws seems better than continuing to grasp without a solution.

The main idea behind Panpsychism seems to rely on the belief that if brains are not required for consciousness, then anything can be conscious of its existence, and thus, everything has different experiences.

The self-referential “conscious of its existence” is not the same as, or necessary for, “consciousness.” A newborn human may not be conscious of its existence but it surely is conscious.

But there are more than just the believers and unbelievers here. There are actually some who believe that consciousness is all an illusion, which raises even more questions.
The only illusion is the belief that consciousness requires something called intelligence, a brain, or thought processes when even the nucleus of an atom senses energy inputs and makes adjustments accordingly. It is conscious.
Keith Frankish, an honorary professor of philosophy at the University of Sheffield, told Popular Mechanics that he believes that consciousness is just an illusion of our own minds. Whether or not the very stars are conscious has yet to be proven, of course.
Consciousness is absolutely proven when the correct definition is used: Sensing inputs and responding to them—as all things do—is consciousness, with the only variables being what inputs and what actions.
And we’re still a long way from understanding the brain and how it correlates to different things within our world.
And there it is, the anthropomorphic belief that consciousness is a brain thing.
This is still an area of science that draws a lot of big question marks from scientists. All you can really say for sure is what you believe. Are you conscious? Or is consciousness just an illusion that your brain has conjured up? It is certainly an interesting thought.
It has been shown that bees, ants, trees, and bacteria learn and respond to stimuli in ways that resemble human thought. But even that is not necessary to prove consciousness. SUMMARY

In science, the term “hard problem” denotes a challenge that is exceptionally difficult to resolve. The “hard problem of consciousness,” coined by philosopher David Chalmers, is one of the most notable examples. It pertains to why and how the brain’s physical processes result in subjective experiences.

Thus, Chalmers’s definition of consciousness inevitably results in anthropomorphism. He has arbitrarily determined that consciousness necessitates brains, emotions, subjective experiences, thoughts, and other human-like attributes.

While he is entitled to his definition, it becomes problematic when attempting to discern the consciousness of “lower” animals. The issue he’ll face is determining the consciousness of “Artificial Intelligence,” a question that now stands before us.

Instead of delving into the mysticism of quantum emotions, I favor a more direct and scientifically useful definition of consciousness: the process of receiving inputs and producing responses, with the measure being their quantity and quality.

How?

Here’s an example:

Measure the volume/quality of inputs and particularly, the volume/quality of responses. Although there will be much debate about how to measure them, and what a great effort it would take, they clearly are capable of being measured.

Consider the rock. Measure of all the inputs: Temperature, motion, moisture, impacts, wind. Then measure the responses: Erosion, cracking, rolling. Consider a plant, a mouse and a drugged human, and a fully awake human.

Measure their much more complex in puts, and vastly more complex responses.

It’s not easy, but given instructions, AI could do it, if not now, then sometime in the future.

Thus, rather than asking the often unanswerable question, “Is it conscious?” we might consider asking, “To what degree is it conscious, and why?” These are two more fruitful avenues of inquiry.

We don’t need to debate whether the ant is conscious (it is), but how conscious is it and why? What are the inputs, and what are the responses?

We can forgo fruitless debates about ant emotions, which may or may not exist, and if they do, may be nothing like human emotions.

Instead, we can focus more productively on the physical evidence we can measure.

We might even devise an answer to a question that has eluded philosophers: “What is the measure of consciousness?”

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

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Is a rock conscious?

The subject of consciousness has been debated for millennia, partly because there is no agreed-upon definition.

Some definitions are:

The state of being aware of and responsive to one’s surroundings; a person’s awareness or perception of something; the fact of awareness by the mind of itself and the world; the individual awareness of unique thoughts, memories, feelings, sensations, and environments; subjective and unique awareness of oneself and the world around.

Note the repeated use of the word “awareness,” which leads to the question, “What is awareness”?

Here is one answer: In philosophy and psychology, awareness is a perception or knowledge of something.

The concept is often synonymous to consciousness.[2] However, one can be aware of something without being explicitly conscious of it, such as in the case of blindsight. 

The states of awareness are also associated with the states of experience so that the structure represented in awareness is mirrored in the structure of experience.

a thinking rock
Conscious?

Based on these definitions, is a photon conscious? A stone? A house? A bacterium? A bee? A tree? A fish? A bear? A human in a coma? A sleeping human? An awake human?

Where in the above list do you draw the line between consciousness and non-consciousness?

In two posts on this blog, “What is consciousness? The hard problem and the “sensingness” solution. and “Consciousness is not “conscious.” It’s sensing, and everything senses,” we explore the “hard” question of consciousness.

We conclude that consciousness isn’t some mysterious, ethereal, unexplainable, unique phenomenon that we all know but cannot describe.

Instead, consciousness is a gradient of sensing. The more a thing senses, the more conscious it is.

So yes, a photon is conscious, and an awake human is more conscious.

I was reminded of this when I read an article, excerpts from which are:

Can Consciousness Exist Without a Brain?

Scientists have expended prolific efforts searching for the elusive anatomical correlate of consciousness. Yet, the origins of consciousness remain unclear. By Yuhong Dong M.D., Ph.D., Makai Allbert, September 30, 2024

This is part 1 in “Where Does Consciousness Come From?” This series delves into research by renowned medical doctors to explore profound questions about consciousness, existence, and what may lie beyond.

“As a neurosurgeon, I was taught that the brain creates consciousness,” said Dr. Eben Alexander, who wrote in detail about his experiences with consciousness while in a deep coma.

Many doctors and biomedical students may have been taught the same about consciousness. However, scientists are still debating whether that theory holds true.

The more we learn about consciousness, the more we begin to believe that consciousness is not just a brain function.

Imagine a child observing an elephant for the first time. Light reflects off the animal and enters the child’s eyes. Retinal photoreceptors in the back of the eyes convert this light into electrical signals, which travel through the optic nerve to the brain’s cortex. This forms vision or visual consciousness.

How do these electrical signals miraculously transform into a vivid mental image? How do they turn into the child’s thoughts, followed by an emotional reaction—“Wow, the elephant is so big!”

The question of how the brain generates subjective perceptions, including images, feelings, and experiences, was coined by Australian cognitive scientist David Chalmers in 1995 as the “hard problem.”

As it turns out, having a brain may not be a prerequisite for consciousness.image-5730873

The Lancet recorded a case of a French man diagnosed with postnatal hydrocephalus—excess cerebrospinal fluid on or around the brain—at the age of 6 months.

Despite his condition, he grew up healthy, became a married father of two children, and worked as a civil servant.

When he was 44 years old, he went to the doctor due to a mild weakness in his left leg. The doctors scanned his head thoroughly and discovered that his brain tissue was almost entirely gone.

Most of the space in his skull was filled with fluid, with only a thin sheet of brain tissue.

“The brain was virtually absent,” wrote the lead author of the case study, Dr. Lionel Feuillet, of the Department of Neurology, Hôpital de la Timone in Marseille, France.

The man had been living a normal life and had no problem seeing, feeling, or perceiving things.

The Lancet recorded a case of a French civil servant diagnosed with postnatal hydrocephalus at the age of 6 months. Later, an MRI revealed massive enlargement of the lateral, third, and fourth ventricles, a very thin cortical mantle, and a posterior fossa cyst.

The normal brain cortex is responsible for sense and movement, and the hippocampus is responsible for memory. Hydrocephalus patients lose or have significantly less volume of these brain regions, yet they can still perform related functions.

how the eye works
The eye is a mechanism. We see because automatic chemical, electronic, and mechanical effects create an illusion of sight.

Even without substantial brains, these people can have above-average cognitive function.

Professor John Lorber (1915–1996), a neurologist from the University of Sheffield, analyzed more than 600 cases of children with hydrocephalus. Of those, he found that half of around 60 children with the most severe type of hydrocephalus and cerebral atrophy had an IQ higher than 100 and lived normal lives.

Among them, one university student had excellent grades, a first-class honors degree in mathematics, an IQ of 126, and was socially normal.

This math genius’s brain was only 1 millimeter thick, while an average person’s is usually 4.5 centimeters thick—44 times larger.

“The important thing about Lorber is that he’s done a long series of systematic scanning rather than just dealing with anecdotes.” Patrick Wall (1925–2001), professor of anatomy at University College London, was quoted as saying in an article by Roger Lewin published in Science in 1981 discussing Lorber’s article.

The cases of people without brains challenge the conventional teachings that brain structure is the basis for generating consciousness.

Is our brain—weighing about three pounds, with roughly two billion neurons connected by around 500 trillion synap ases—the real source of consciousness?

Some scientists have proposed that deep and invisible structures in the brain explain normal cognitive function—even with severe hydrocephalus.

These structures may not be easily visible on conventional brain scans or to the naked eye. However, the fact that they are not readily apparent doesn’t mean they don’t exist or aren’t important for brain function.

Here, science begins a strange but typical journey. The belief that the brain is the source of consciousness is ingrained.

When someone who clearly is conscious but has very little brain is examined, the immediate attempt is to save the “consciousness-is-in-the-brain” hypothesis.

So, scientists search for invisible brain structures that account for the phenomenon of consciousness.

It reminds one of the search for invisible connections among entangled quantum particles, with even the great Einstein complaining about “spooky action at a distance.”

We now believe there are no invisible connections among entangled particles, and in the same vein, I suggest there are no invisible brain structures that account for consciousness.

“For hundreds of years neurologists have assumed that all that is dear to them is performed by the cortex, but it may well be that the deep structures in the brain carry out many of the functions assumed to be the sole province of the cortex,” Wall commented in the 1981 article.

Or, it may be no such structures exist.

These unknown deep structures “are undoubtedly important for many functions,” said neurologist Norman Geschwind (1926–1984) from Beth Israel Hospital, affiliated with Harvard University, in the 1981 article.

Furthermore, the deep structures “are almost certainly more important than is currently thought,” said David Bowsher, a professor of neurophysiology at the University of Liverpool in the UK, in the same article.

The source of consciousness may exist in realms we’ve yet to explore. When medical theories can’t solve a mystery, physics might step in with a plot twist—in particular—quantum physics.

Quantum physics, which no human understands, has become the new “dark magic” or the new “God,” explaining all that current science cannot explain.

“To understand consciousness, we can’t just look at the neurons,” Dr. Stuart Hameroff, director of the Center for Consciousness Studies at the University of Arizona, told The Epoch Times.

Even single-celled organisms like paramecium demonstrate purposeful behaviors such as swimming, avoiding obstacles, mating, and, significantly—learning—without having a single synapse or being part of a neural network.

That should be a clue. “Purposeful behaviors” require purpose, and presumably, having a purpose requires some element of consciousness.

According to Hameroff, these intelligent, possibly conscious behaviors are mediated by microtubules inside the paramecium. The same microtubules are found in brain neurons and all animal and plant cells.

Microtubules, as the name suggests, are tiny tubes inside cells. They play essential roles in cell division, movement, and intracellular transport and appear to be the information carriers in neurons.

The proteins that make up microtubules (tubulin) are “the most prevalent or abundant protein in the whole brain,” Hameroff told The Epoch Times. He hypothesizes that microtubules are key players in human consciousness.

Hameroff still fights to preserve some semblance of a brain/consciousness connection. Scientists cannot entirely let go of a belief.

They can only chip away at it until nothing is left, by which time a new generation comes along to say, in essence, “the sun does not revolve around the earth.”

“Because [when] you look inside neurons, you see all these microtubules, and they’re in a periodic lattice, which is perfect for information processing and vibrations,” Hameroff stated.

Due to their properties, microtubules function like antennas. Hameroff says they serve as “quantum devices” to transduce consciousness from a quantum dimension.

British physicist, mathematician, and Nobel Laureate Sir Roger Penrose and Hameroff hypothesized a theory that quantum processes generate consciousness.

Quantum refers to tiny units of energy or matter at a microscopic level. Its unique features can help us understand many things that current science cannot explain.

As does black magic and religion. That, in fact, is the foundation of religion — explaining what science cannot explain.

In simple terms, microtubules act as a bridge between the quantum world and our consciousness. They take quantum signals, amplify them, organize them, and somehow, through processes we don’t fully understand, turn them into the feelings, perceptions, and thoughts that make up our conscious awareness.

Somehow. Somehow. Somehow.

Microtubules can explain bewildering facts about the brain. Hameroff posits that the brains of individuals born with hydrocephalus can adapt as their microtubules control neuroplasticity and reorganize their brain tissue.

“So over time, the microtubules in that brain adapt and rearrange themselves to sustain consciousness and cognition,” he said.

Other scientists are also using alternative quantum theories to explain mental activities. A study published in Physical Review E shows that vibrations in lipid molecules within the myelin sheath can create pairs of quantum-entangled photons.

It suggests that this quantum entanglement may help synchronize brain activity, providing insights into consciousness.

It’s like this. We don’t understand quantum entanglement, and we don’t understand consciousness, so maybe one causes the other.

We also don’t understand God, so perhaps we should throw Him (Her, It) into the mix and completely depart from science.

“Rather than a computer of simple neurons, the brain is a quantum orchestra,” Hameroff described, “Because you have resonances and harmony and solutions over different frequencies, much like you do in music. And [so] I think consciousness is more like music than it is a computation.”

Hey, why not? If we don’t understand microtubules or entangled protons, why not music?

Science is always evolving. The study of consciousness is still an area of active research and debate in neuroscience and philosophy. However, each new discovery opens up new possibilities. As we continue to explore these mysteries, let’s remain curious and open-minded.

Open-minded, but not empty-minded. Tossing out WAGs (Wild Ass Guesses) isn’t exactly science.

Let’s return to what we can agree on. Whatever consciousness is, it relates to sensing stimuli. When in daily parlance we speak of a person not being conscious, the belief is that person is not reacting to stimuli.

He (she, it) can’t see, hear, feel, smell, or taste, or at least not report on any of those senses. But we know an “unconscious” person has processes that continue. Administer an electric shock, and his leg will jump, so at least the muscles in his leg are conscious—probably his entire body.

His body reacts to outside stimuli, though perhaps one tiny portion of his brain doesn’t communicate what we call awareness.

When I am sleeping, the line between awareness and unawareness is blurry. I sense sounds and touch, which is why you can wake me by shouting or shaking me.

Let’s take it down a bit:

A close-up of a bee’s head, showing its large eyes, antennae and fuzzy body.
I play games, just for the fun of it. Am I conscious?

The Fascinating Complex Minds of Bees and Why They Matter Research shows bees are profoundly intelligent beings with very active brains. Posted July 23, 2022 | Reviewed by Vanessa Lancaster

he question of whether bees are conscious is fascinating. Recent research suggests that bees exhibit behaviors that imply a form of consciousness. For instance, bees can recognize human faces, count, use tools, and even show signs of emotions.

They also demonstrate self-awareness and the ability to learn new tasks. 

Bees even play games, just for fun.

While bees’ brains are much simpler than human brains, containing about a million neurons compared to our 86 billion3, these complex behaviors indicate that bees might have a rudimentary form of consciousness.

A group of prominent biologists and philosophers announced a new consensus: There’s “a realistic possibility” that insects, octopuses, crustaceans, fish and other overlooked animals experience consciousness.

OK, we’re down to other animals even paramecium – animal-like protists- which “swim, avoid obstacles, mate, and, significantly—learn—without having a single synapse or being part of a neural network.

What is the commonality among all animals?

They sense. How do we know? Because they react to outside stimuli.

OK, what about plants. Are they conscious? When I asked the AI Copilot that question, it answered:

While plants exhibit sophisticated behaviors and can respond to their environment in remarkable ways, they do not have brains or nervous systems comparable to those of animals.

Some researchers argue that plants might have a form of “plant cognition,” which allows them to adapt and respond to stimuli in ways that seem intelligent.

For example, plants can send warning signals to other parts of themselves when damaged and produce chemicals to deter predators.

They also send these warning signals to other plants and to animals, which receive, interpret, and send signals back to plants.

However, most scientists agree that plants do not possess consciousness as we understand it.

There’s that science focus on a brain, or lack thereof, again.

Consciousness typically involves subjective experiences and awareness, which require a complex nervous system and brain.

Because AI simply gathers information, it spews out the old “consciousness-is-in-the-brain” hypothesis, which doesn’t recognize game-playing bees, much less paramecium, those swimming, obstacle-avoiding mating, and learning creatures as being conscious.

Where do they draw the line? Can only humans be conscious? Or, more reasonably, can all living things have some element of consciousness.

What is the common element for human, other animal, and plant consciousness? Reacting to stimuli. 

That’s all a “conscious” person does.

When you “see,” photons reflect off objects and pass through the cornea, which refracts the light. The photons then go through the lens, which further focuses the light onto the retina, which contains rods and cones.

These photoreceptors convert light into electrochemical signals that travel along the optic nerve to the visual cortex in the brain, which processes these signals and interprets them as images. It’s all electro-mechanical. There is no magic. It’s just photons, electrons, protons, neutrons, etc., doing what they are stimulated to do, which gives us an illusion we term “consciousness.”

the beginning of the universe
Where consciousness began

All those electrons, protons, neutrons, etc., were created from pure energy.

All things that exist must have a beginning, so if consciousness exists, where does it begin?

Does it begin with the human brain? With a game–playing, mating insect’s brain. With a brainless paramecium? With a tree sending, receiving, and interpreting signals from other plants and animals?

With a rock that expands, contracts, or moves because of wind, rain, heat, cold, and vibrations? With a photon that responds to other photons and other quantum particles? Where is that bright line between consciousness and non-consciousness?

I submit there is no such line and that searching for it is a fool’s errand based on anthropomorphism, the belief that we are an example for everything.

We may be special or even superior in a few ways, but we are not unique, and consciousness is not a unique attribute of anything.

All we do is react to stimuli, just as everything in the universe does. That is consciousness.

The more sophisticated our reaction, the greater is our consciousness.

This takes us to the Gaia hypothesis, which postulates that the earth and everything on it, organic and inorganic, are one organism, working together to promote and maintain life.

That hypothesis also intimates the earth itself is conscious and has conscious intent.

The Gaia hypothesis posits that the Earth is a self-regulating complex system involving the biosphere, the atmosphere, the hydrospheres and the pedosphere, tightly coupled as an evolving system. The hypothesis contends that this system as a whole, called Gaia, seeks a physical and chemical environment optimal for contemporary life.

The logical inference is that the entire universe is an incredibly complex arrangement in which the unlikely existence of life evolved from energy and quantum particles actually is not only likely but inevitable for a conscious being testing infinite possibilities.

For those of you who consider the complexity of the human brain as being a factor in consciousness, consider the complexity of the entire universe, and the existence of uncountable conscious entities all interacting via particle motion and entanglement.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell

Search #monetarysovereignty

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The four worst taxes in America

INTRODUCTION When we rank the “worst” taxes, we consider those that do the least good and cause the most harm to the American people and the economy. The U.S. federal government is unique. It is Monetarily Sovereign, unlike state and local governments, businesses, and individuals, which are monetarily non-sovereign.
worst taxes in America
Federal taxes take dollars from the economy and destroy them. Then, there’s the waste of money in calculating, paying, and collecting taxes, and punishing evaders.
It initially created the U.S. dollar—as many as it arbitrarily chose—and remains the only entity with the infinite ability to create dollars. The federal government cannot unintentionally run short of dollars. Even if it didn’t collect a penny in taxes, it could continue spending forever. Thus, no federal government agency can run short of dollars unless that is what the government wants. Anyone who claims otherwise either is ignorant about federal financing or lying. Often, you have seen and heard statements indicating the government or certain agencies of the government — Social Security, Medicare, et al. — are about to run out of dollars or that specific proposals — Medicare for All, increased anti-poverty benefits, etc. — are “unaffordable.” You will encounter questions like, “Who will pay for it?” or “When will the government run out of other people’s money?” Such statements deceive, intentionally or not. Sadly, even government employees, media representatives, and economists who should know better repeatedly promulgate disinformation. Sometimes, you will be treated with honesty, such as the following statements which have been repeated on this blog:

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan: “A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. There is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.”

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. It’s not tax money… We simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account.”

Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell: “As a central bank, we have the ability to create money digitally.”

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank: “As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.”

Different entities are Monetarily Sovereign over other forms of money. For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) is sovereign over the euro: When asked, “Can the ECB ever run out of money?” Mario Draghi, the ECB president, replied, “No. We cannot run out of money.”
Uncle Sam has infinite dollars
The U.S. federal government is Monetarily Sovereign. It cannot run short of U.S. dollars. It has infinite dollars.
Unfortunately, such honesty is rare, and we are more likely to be subjected to misleading statements:

Molly Dahl, the Chief of Long-Term Analysis at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), recently emphasized to the Senate Budget Committee that Social Security could run out of funds in about eight to nine years if no action is taken.

The Social Security Board of Trustees also projected that the trust funds could be depleted by 2035.

And,

The Medicare Board of Trustees has projected that the trust fund for Medicare Part A, which covers hospital insurance, could be depleted by 2031

Tricia Neuman, the executive director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, has also highlighted the need for action to avoid severe Medicare cuts.

Additionally, Robert Emmet Moffit, co-editor of Modernizing Medicare, has pointed out the financial challenges due to factors like the rising number of older Americans and advanced medical technology.

These “experts” and many others fail to mention that the problems could be eliminated at the stroke of a President’s pen by approving a Congressional bill that would, in essence, say, “The federal government will fully fund All Medicare and Social Security expenses.” The federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars to fund anything. All federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt. When federal taxes are taken from the public, they begin as checking account dollars in the M2 money supply measure. When they reach the U.S. Treasury, they suddenly cease to be part of any money supply measure. They simply disappear into the federal government’s infinite supply of money. Infinity plus any number equals infinity. Federal taxes do not provide the federal government with spending money. The government creates new dollars by paying creditors’ bills. To pay a creditor, the government sends instructions (not dollars) to the creditor’s bank, instructing the bank to increase the balance in the creditor’s checking account. New dollars are added to the M2 money supply measure when the bank does as instructed. The bank balances its books by clearing the transaction through the Federal Reserve system. What, then, is the purpose of federal taxes?
  1. Federal taxes assure demand for the U.S. dollar by requiring taxes to be paid in dollars.
  2. Federal taxes allow the federal government to control the economy by taxing what the government wishes to discourage and by giving tax breaks to what the government wishes to reward.
  3. Then, there is the real function of federal taxes: To help the rich become even wealthier by widening the gap between the rich and the rest.
It is the Gap that makes the rich rich. Without the Gap, no one would be rich; we would all be the same. The wider the Gap, the richer. To become richer, one must accomplish two things: gain more wealth for oneself and/or ensure those below have less. Federal tax laws accomplish the latter by granting tax exceptions for the kinds of income enjoyed by the wealthiest among us. Just one example:
Donald Trump on his federal tax returns declared negative income in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2020, and that he paid a total of $1,500 in income taxes for the years 2016 and 2017. On their 2020 income tax returns, Trump and his wife Melania paid no federal income taxes and claimed a refund of $5.47 million.
Billionaire Donald Trump paid less income tax than you did from 2015 through 2020. And this is not an exception. It is a fundamental purpose of federal tax laws—the Gap-widening process for which the rich bribe Congress. THE FOUR WORST TAXES IN AMERICA  Because the federal government neither needs nor uses tax dollars, three of the four worst taxes are federal. They take dollars from the private sector (also known as “the economy”) and transfer them to the government, where they are destroyed. Mathematically, federal taxes (but not state/local taxes), pay for nothing, reduce Gross Domestic Product, and are recessive.
the poor pay more sales taxes than the rich
Relative to their income, the poor pay far more in sales taxes than the rich.
4. The fourth worst taxes in America are the ones that are not federal: State and local sales taxes. Unlike the federal government, state/local governments are part of the U.S. economy. They deposit tax dollars into bank accounts, which become part of the M2 money supply measure. Thus, state/local taxes are not mathematically recessive. However, they are regressive. They negatively affect the rich much less than the rest of us simply because they use a smaller percentage of their income to purchase sales-taxable items. 3. The third-worst tax in America is the federal capital gains tax. In theory, this tax could be somewhat beneficial. On the surface, it should tax the rich more than others because they are far more likely to have capital gains. Further, the higher tax on short-term (one year or less) capital gains should encourage investment above speculation. The reality is far different. The rich have bribed Congress to include so many exceptions and caveats in this highly complex tax law that the rules allow the rich to escape most if not all, taxation (See Donald Trump). Though federal tax dollars are destroyed upon receipt, the tax could benefit the economy if it served a practical purpose: Narrowing the Gap between the rich and the rest. In practice, it does the opposite. 2. The second worst tax in America is the federal tax on Social Security benefits. While the notion that the federal government should provide benefits to the elderly and disabled makes sense, unnecessarily taxing those benefits is senseless and regressive. The people most in need of Social Security benefits have the least ability to pay taxes on the program’s already meager payments. Despite having the infinite ability to pay benefits and unnecessarily collecting taxes on benefits, the federal government repeatedly has raised  the minimum age for receiving full benefits:
Normal Retirement Age
Year of birth Age
1937 and prior 65
1938 65 and 2 months
1939 65 and 4 months
1940 65 and 6 months
1941 65 and 8 months
1942 65 and 10 months
1943-54 66
1955 66 and 2 months
1956 66 and 4 months
1957 66 and 6 months
1958 66 and 8 months
1959 66 and 10 months
1960 and later 67
Taxing benefits while raising eligibility ages is unconscionable but perfectly rational for a government that has been bribed to widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest. 1. The worst tax in America is FICA, the Federal Insurance Contributions Act. The federal payroll tax supposedly funds Social Security and Medicare programs. It is deducted from each paycheck and ostensibly provides financial and health care benefits for retirees, disabled Americans, and children. It does none of those things. Like all federal taxes, it is destroyed upon receipt by the Treasury. It is designed to impact salaried people in lower-income groups. It is not levied against the type of income the rich most enjoy, such as capital gains, interest, and other “non-income” income. It is limited to salaries below $168,600. A person earning a million dollars a year would pay almost* the same amount of FICA tax as a person earning $168,000 a year. (*An extra 2% of salaries above $299K) is deducted for Medicare.) Half of FICA supposedly is paid by businesses, but this is a charade. Businesses consider the cost of FICA when determining salaries, particularly for lower-paid employees. It is the lower-paid employees who ultimately suffer the full burden of FICA. However, FICA encourages businesses to hire workers as independent contractors liable for their retirement financing. This allows companies financial room to pay higher salaries, giving the illusion of more generous compensation. FICA and its sister taxes, the self-employment tax on individuals who work for themselves, and FUTA, the Federal Unemployment Tax Act that employers pay for unemployment insurance, are the worst taxes because they are the most regressive. They do the most to widen the Gap between the rich and the rest. Taxing employment discourages businesses and the economy from employing people, which is exactly the opposite effect one would desire for any government action. All federal employment taxes could and should be eliminated immediately. SUMMARY
  1. Federal taxes do not fund federal spending. The federal government destroys all the tax dollars it receives.
  2. Further, federal taxes reduce GDP, so they are recessive.
  3. Federal tax laws, as currently written and enforced, are regressive widening the income/wealth/power Gap between the rich and the rest.
  4. However, federal taxes support demand for the U.S. dollar and help the government control the economy by taxing what it wishes to limit and giving tax breaks to what it wishes to encourage.
  5. State and local taxes fund state and local spending. They do not reduce GDP but are often regressive.
  6. All federal taxes should be eliminated except where the government wishes to limit some activity.
  7. Another means of federal control would be to use federal spending (rather than tax breaks) to support activities the government wishes to encourage.
  8. The federal government could help reduce the regressive nature of state/local taxes by providing per capita aid to all states.
And yes, I know, federal spending supposedly causes inflation. That already has been debunked here, here, here, and elsewhere in this blog. Federal spending prevents and cures inflation when it acquires and distributes the scarcities causing inflation. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Monetary Sovereignty Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell; MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell; https://www.academia.edu/

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

The cause of inflation down to the last decimal point WAG.

Years ago, I  took over a commodity brokerage with an employee who recently had won a chartist competition. A chartist is a securities researcher or trader who analyzes investments based on past market prices and technical indicators.

He had endless historical data and formulas for that data, and based on all that, he predicted the markets.

Despite winning a national competition, his trading proved to be a spectacular failure. While past data told him what had happened, He had no idea why it happened, so his predictions were worthless.

He didn’t understand cause and effect.

In this vein, an article claims to explain the cause of inflation to the last decimal point. Do you believe it?

Federal spending was responsible for the 2022 spike in inflation, research

Increased federal spending helped the economy bounce back during the pandemic, but it also caused a surge in inflation, research reveals. Inflation is difficult to control. Its cause is often even harder to pinpoint.  

Yes, if all you have is formulas and you don’t understand how an economy works, the cause is hard to pinpoint. But that doesn’t stop technicians from trying to identify it.

In attempting to understand the 2022 spike in inflation that followed the pandemic, some policymakers — up to and including President Joe Biden — blamed shortages in the supply chain. But a new study shows that federal spending was the cause — significantly so. 

“Our research shows mathematically that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain,” said Mark Kritzman, a senior lecturer at MIT Sloan. 

Fascinating that Mr. Kritzman should conclude inflation was caused by spending.

If he were correct, net spending, i.e., the difference between taxes and gross spending, would cause inflation. That is what puts spending dollars into consumers’ pockets.

Net spending, or deficit spending, tells us how much money the federal government adds to the economy after taxes are subtracted.

Here is some data Mr. Kritzman may have overlooked:

No relationship exists between increases and decreases in federal net spending (red) vs. inflation (blue).

Not only does Mr. Kritzman overlook the data showing no correlation between net government spending and inflation, he tries to put mathematical measures on how much total federal spending (ignoring taxes) affects inflation.

In writing “The Determinants of Inflation,” Kritzman and colleagues from State Street developed a new methodology that revealed how certain drivers of inflation changed in importance over time from 1960 to 2022. 

In doing so, they found that federal spending was two to three times more important than any other factor causing inflation during 2022. 

Specifically, their results showed that:

  • 42% of inflation could be attributed to government spending.
  • 17% could be attributed to inflation expectations — that is, the rate at which consumers expect prices to continue to increase.
  • 14% could be blamed on high interest rates.

When you see those kinds of specific percentages, you should be doubtful, and when you see them attributed to something like “inflation expectations,” you should be incredulous. Does Mr. Kritzman believe he can measure consumer expectations and include that in an equation? Really?

You might have noticed that his results totaled 73%, leaving only 27% for oil shortages—the real cause of inflation.

Oil price changes (green) are closely related to inflation (blue).

The graph shows the essentially parallel tracks of oil prices and inflation. This is no coincidence; oil costs are part of virtually every product and service. In April 2020, OPEC agreed to a historic cut in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day starting in May 2020. 

Despite massive federal net spending after 2015, inflation (blue) remained relatively low until COVID hit in 2020. Then, we had a recession (vertical gray bar), cured by increased federal net spending.

Inflation didn’t begin until April 2020, when OPEC cut oil supplies to raise prices. This reduction in supply led to inflation (green) that is only now being cured as oil prices drop.

Here is a closer look at inflation and oil during COVID:

Crude oil prices rose due to OPEC price control. This caused inflation to increase. Then OPEC lowered prices and inflation followed down.

Kritzman said that using government stimulus money to help the economy rebound during the pandemic made sense, given the unprecedented circumstances. “People really didn’t know if we were going to have a 1930s-type depression, so the government erred on the side of more stimulus than less stimulus,” he said. 

“I don’t judge that to be a bad thing to have done, but it did cause this big spike in inflation,” Kritzman said. “What was surprising is not just that [the driver] was federal spending but that it was so overwhelmingly federal spending.”

Wrong. It was overwhelmingly OPEC oil shortages, along with other COVID-related scarcities of food, shipping, metals, lumber, computer chips, labor, and other scarcities, that caused inflation.

Here is how they came to their conclusion: 

The authors arrived at their conclusion by using the Mahalanobis distance statistic, which has been used in a range of projects, from measuring turbulence in the financial markets to detecting anomalies in self-driving vehicles. 

In their paper, researchers first used a hidden Markov model to identify four regimes of shifting inflation: stable, rising steady, rising volatile, and disinflation.

Then they used the Mahalanobis distance to figure out how eight different economic variables caused the economy to shift between those regimes. The economic variables the authors looked at were producer prices, wages/salaries, personal consumption, inflation expectations, interest rates, the yield curve, the money supply, and federal spending. 

Finally, by applying an algorithm to the data from 1960 to 2022, they were able to see how inflation drivers had changed in importance over time. This enabled them to predict the likely path of future inflation — a capability that could potentially be of  help to policymakers and investors alike.

The results dispel the notion that the supply chain could be blamed for the 2022 spike in inflation, Kritzman said. 

The results may or may not dispel that notion, but they don’t deal with the fact that inflation is caused by shortages of critical goods and services, usually oil and/or food, not federal spending.

Here is their explanatory graph. As you will see, federal deficit spending is not even shown on their graph. Could it be because even they don’t believe it’s a relevant factor?

Examine their graph, and you’ll see a few peculiarities. 

  1. The first is that they mix cause and effect: Causes would be Personal Consumption, Interest Rates, Yield Curve, Money Supply, and Federal Spending. 

The effects would be Producer Prices, Wages, and Salaries. It’s not clear how one can claim that producer prices cause inflation when they are caused by inflation.

2. If Personal Consumption is only 6.2% at fault, how is Federal Spending given 41% blame for inflation? Was all that inflation caused strictly by the government’s purchases, not by consumer purchases? Unlikely.

3. And if federal deficit spending flooded the economy with money, how did the money supply only increase by 2.9%? 

4. Finally, there’s that amorphous “expectations” thing. How was that translated into dollars to reach the precise number 16.9%?  If you had inflation expectations, how would you put a number on that?

How would you determine it was 13.9% responsible for changing your consumer buying or business selling prices? 

The numbers in the above graph are what I like to call WAGs (Wild Ass Guesses), made to look scientific by applying fake mathematics.

“The narrative at the time was that the cause of inflation was interruptions to the supply chain because of COVID-19,” Kritzman said. “But that didn’t show up in producer prices

In other words, if supplies became scarce, then the prices of those supplies would go up, which we don’t see in our results at that point in time.”

The narrative should have been that all prices went up because of the scarcity of oil, food, shipping, metals, lumber, computer chips, labor, etc. That is the whole point:

We had inflation, not because of “excessive federal spending” but because of COVID-related scarcities.

Guidance for policymakers

The researchers’ findings indicate that the government and the Fed sometimes operate at cross purposes, Kritzman said. When the federal government overstimulates the economy, the Federal Reserve has to delay lowering interest rates. 

The data refute the “overstimulates” notion. There was no historical relationship between federal spending and inflation.

“The more overstimulation there is, the more hawkish the Fed has to be to keep inflation under control,” Kritzman said. 

Keeping inflation under control is not the Fed’s job. The Fed doesn’t have the tools. It’s Congress’s and the President’s job to prevent and cure the shortages of goods and services that cause inflation.

Taking the same approach that the researchers did, the Federal Reserve might be able to gain a deeper look at “the dynamics that are going on” — not just that inflation is up or down, he said. Instead, it offers insight into how the drivers of inflation change in importance through time. 

Yes, sometimes a shortage of oil drives inflation. Other times, it’s a shortage of food, labor, or other production factors.

“I think that the Fed would be well advised to take this methodology and make it operational in how they monitor inflation and other things that they’re interested in,” Kritzman said. 

No, Congress and the President should stop avoiding their responsibilities. They should assume control over inflation by preventing and curing shortages.

For example, encouraging and aiding oil drillers and refiners and releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were primary factors in ending the most recent inflation.

The same encouragement and aid should be given to all products and services, the shortages of which cause inflation.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Monetary Sovereignty

Twitter: @rodgermitchell

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https://www.academia.edu/

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The Sole Purpose of Government Is to Improve and Protect the Lives of the People.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY