-The debt ceiling illusion

An alternative to popular faith

      Sometime in October, the federal debt will touch the legal ceiling of $12.1 trillion, and Congress will decide whether or not to raise it. Surely, the debt ceiling law is among the nation’s silliest.
      Visualize this: All year, you recklessly spend more than you earn, and at the end of the year you announce that you will not pay your bills because you are frugal.        That’s Congress.
      Congress authorizes federal spending and federal taxing. So Congress already has control over the federal debt. It is Congress that has created the $12 trillion debt. Now, Congress will decide whether to pay for what Congress has authorized.
If Congress doesn’t increase the debt, several bad things could happen. The U.S. could default on its debts, thereby removing forever the trust other nations and our own citizens have in our money. Borrowing would become much more difficult and the world would begin to dump its T-securities – a financial calamity. Would Congress be that stupid? Well, it’s Congress.
      Or, the recovery from this recession could end, and we could plunge into a depression of unprecedented magnitude. Would Congress be that stupid? Well, it’s Congress.
      Or, the Treasury could implement some accounting tricks like redeeming government employee retirement funds, now invested in T-securities. Or the Treasury could stop paying interest on government trust funds. Both actions are internal devices without substance, merely delaying the inevitable, as does the vote on the debt ceiling.
      No responsible person, who cares about America, would vote against raising the debt ceiling, but we’re talking about Congress, a group that often embraces style over substance. The debt ceiling has two results. First, it is a shameful admission by members of Congress they know or care little about the bills they vote for, and focus on the individual, pork-barrel amendments they can sneak in. Generally, Congress is a “You-vote-for-mine-and-I’ll-vote-for-yours” club.
      Second, the debt ceiling gives members of Congress political cover — the ability to vote for spending for their constituencies, while voting against spending as a whole, thus to demonstrate how frugal and disciplined they are.
      There should not be a debt ceiling. If Congress wishes to be frugal, it should do so when authorizing, not when paying, its debts. Any Congressperson who speaks against raising the debt ceiling is a phony. Or is that statement a tautology?

Oh, and by the way. Limiting the creation of debt limits economic growth, but that is a subject discussed in many posts on this blog.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
For more information, see http://www.rodgermitchell.com

–When China will pass the U.S. as the world’s dominant economy


An alternative to popular faith

      When China passes the U.S. as the world’s dominant economy, you can blame the economists, who parrot the popular faith that federal debts are unsustainable and cause recessions, inflations, high taxes and harmful high interest rates. No evidence supports these intuitive beliefs.
Contrary to popular faith:

–Fact: We do not need other nations to buy our debt. We do not even need to create debt. Just as the U.S. government has the unlimited ability to create T-securities and sell them (aka “borrow”), the government has the unlimited ability to create money, thus the unlimited ability to “sustain” any size debt.
–Fact: There is no historical relationship between deficits and inflation (See the blog: “Do deficits really cause inflation,” below). Data indicates inflation is more closely related to energy costs, specifically to oil, than to any other factor.
–Fact: In only 15 years, from 1979 through 1994, taxes were cut and the federal debt grew an astounding 500%. This massive, unprecedented money printing did not cause inflation or high taxes. Instead, we entered a long period of economic growth, low taxes and moderate interest rates. Repeating that 500% debt growth would yield a $72 trillion debt in 2024 and an average deficit of $4 trillion — and if history is a judge, the same economic growth, the same low taxes and the same moderate interest rates.
–Fact: All six depressions in U.S. history immediately followed years of federal surpluses. Every recovery coincided with increases in debt growth.
–Fact: All nine recessions in the past 50 years immediately followed reductions in federal debt growth. Every recovery coincided with increases in debt growth, such as we are seeing, today.
–Fact: There is no historical relationship between high interest rates and slow economic growth. Similarly, low interest rates have not stimulated growth.
–Fact: There is no historical relationship between deficits and tax rates. There is no mechanism for our grandchildren to pay for deficits.

The factually unsupported fear of federal deficits in the U.S., when compared with the lack of such fear in China, is why we will fail and they will succeed.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
For more information, see http://www.rodgermitchell.com