A note to reader, “PT” about the mathematical reality of GDP

Recently, I received a comment from reader, “PT” who wrote in response to “Chainsaw Elon” and how to lose weight”:
I personally think there’s an information circus going on. They clearly understand that the root cause of a recession is ‘deficit control,’ as it impacts supply. In my opinion, there will be more spending . Meanwhile, MT (Musk/Trump) are just saying what people want to hear.
My comment in return was:
PT, I agree with you. The misunderstanding is on the part of the public. MT, along with their closest advisors take advantage of this misunderstanding for their own personal gain. Example: In the world of commodities trading, there always is a losing position for every winning position. Therefore, a random bet should have a 50% chance of winning — EXCEPT –except that between the winners and losers there are the brokers who pull out a tiny percentage of each bet. With enough bets, this tiny percentage evolves to the near certainty, that almost everyone will lose, except for the intermediaries: The brokers. I was once a broker. After too long a time, I knew. It’s why I left the business. Long term, customers had to lose. We actually told them that, but the lure of riches was too strong. They bet, anyway. My morals would have made me a terrible casino owner, for that is the basis of casino profits. Even on a 50/50 bet, you will lose long term when the casino takes out even .001% of each bet. The Gross Domeitic Product = Federal Spending + Nonfederal Spending – Net Imports is no secret. Every first-year economist knows it. Further, a recession or depression is a series of reduced GDP. They know that, too. So why do they opt for reduced Federal Spending, knowing this mathematically must result in a recession or depression, which inevitably must be cured by increased Federal Spending? There are only two answers: Ignorance and deception, the latter being associated with personal gain. (No one wants to be the one to reveal that the Emperor has no clothes.) I’m going to put this response into a post for more viewing.
The above GDP formula expresses one of the most fundamental facts in all of economics, a fact of which nearly all non-economists are ignorant, and most economists act ignorant. This supposed ignorance is especially true of those with a Libertarian bent, who opt for “reduced central government” ignoring the mathematical fact that reduced central government –> reduced GDP — > recession or depression.
Historically and mathematically, reduced federal spending (blue line) has been associated with recessions (vertical bars). GDP = Federal Spending + Non-federal Spending – Net Imports.

Every U.S. depression has come on the heels of federal surpluses.

1804-1812: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 48%. Depression began 1807. 1817-1821: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 29%. Depression began 1819. 1823-1836: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 99%. Depression began 1837. 1852-1857: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 59%. Depression began 1857. 1867-1873: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 27%. Depression began 1873. 1880-1893: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 57%. Depression began 1893. 1920-1930: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 36%. Depression began 1929. 1997-2001: U. S. Federal Debt reduced 15%. Recession began 2001.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell Twitter: @rodgermitchell Search #monetarysovereignty Facebook: Rodger Malcolm Mitchell; MUCK RACK: https://muckrack.com/rodger-malcolm-mitchell; https://www.academia.edu/

……………………………………………………………………..

A Government’s Sole Purpose is to Improve and Protect the People’s Lives.

MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY

One thought on “A note to reader, “PT” about the mathematical reality of GDP

  1. ‘Outrageous lies’: Trump floats kicking millions off of Social Security

    U.S. President Donald Trump launched his latest threat against Social Security on Tuesday under the guise of combating fraud, floating the possibility of stripping benefits from “millions of people” as Elon Musk’s lieutenants infiltrate the agency that administers the nation’s most effective anti-poverty program.

    “The good thing about Social Security and what I read is if you take all of those numbers off because they’re obviously fraudulent or incompetent… all of a sudden we have a very powerful Social Security with people 80 and 70 and 90 but not 200 [years old].

    (Two lies. Federal spending on Social Security “fraud” prevents a tax cut for the rich. The “fraud doesnt’ exist, and the spending on SS doesn’t prevent the tax cut.)

    “We have millions and millions of people over 100 years old” who are receiving Social Security payments, Trump continued.

    The Republican president did not provide any evidence for his claim of substantial fraud in the Social Security program, which provides benefits to roughly 70 million Americans. Musk has similarly claimed, without evidence, that “tens of millions of people [are] marked in Social Security as ‘ALIVE’ when they are definitely dead.”

    (But you knew that to widen the income/wealth/power Gap between the very rich and the rest, Musk/Trump would attack Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. This is a surprise only to the ignorant MAGAs. You knew it was going to happen.)

    Like

Leave a comment